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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • ringleheimringleheim Member Posts: 168
    I just thought I'd chime in here and give some of you a cheap laugh.

    A few pages back the discussion was focusing on MMV and how it's the set that won't die. The assumption seems to be "who doesn't have this by now? How is this still a good seller?"

    I just placed an order for it at Shop at Home about 10 minutes ago! I came out of my Dark Ages last December and noticed the set right away. I've even seen it built at the Lego store. It's "nice" but not in the league of the modulars, and it never struck me as "special" so I ignored it, focusing on other "more desirable" sets first (at least in my opinion).

    Now I'm in a bind! I have bought and built everything on the "must buy" list yet still need new Lego sets to keep me going. So I gave MMV a second look and decided it was time to grab one.

    Between free shipping, $10 in VIP points, and a $10 gift card, the final bill was something like $84 including tax!

    I have a very strong feeling that price will look crazy stupid low in a few years once this set finally retires. This set has "double original MSRP" written all over it, probably the day after it is discontinued.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Your assessment of the situation with MMV is a wise one...

    Yes, that set will be $200 very quickly after retirement, even with all the copies put away for resale... At the new price per part of 13+ cents per part, $200 becomes "normal" for a set like that.
  • GodspeedGodspeed Member Posts: 14
    May I ask, for the popular items on Black Friday, how fast can they sell out? Are we talking about a matter of minutes? Or an hour or so..?
  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 627
    Does the BF sale just happen in the US?
  • makmak Member Posts: 300
    ^ Yes it does but Amazon is started that tradition in the UK a couple of years ago
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444

    ^ Your assessment of the situation with MMV is a wise one...

    Yes, that set will be $200 very quickly after retirement, even with all the copies put away for resale... At the new price per part of 13+ cents per part, $200 becomes "normal" for a set like that.

    As long as people don't flood the market with MMV, it should do great.

  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    I'm not sure I see MMV doubling overnight. Yes, it's a 10x set but if you look at Emerald Night, a similar RRP, it took roughly nine months for it to double. MMV also has been out for three times as long.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ They will the first few months, give it 6 months and it will be much nicer.

    Same thing happened with 2518 - Walmart had about a million of them on clearance and they were still being given away on Bricklink as recently as 3 months ago, but the price finally has come up as all the excess supply has gone.

    Just have to wait out the oversupply. In MMV's case, it shouldn't be years and years, I hope... ;)
  • JT32JT32 BasingstokeMember Posts: 124
    I'm a big fan of the trains and have done (and still do) really well out of the Emerald Night. Does anyone think 7939 Cargo Train will do as well in the aftermarket? I'm thinking it must be due to finish having been around a couple of years and with a more recent Cargo Train available, just can't decide if I should be stocking up on them.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    On a much, much, much smaller scale, I think the Witch seasonal polybag, is a great little profit maker.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    Godspeed said:

    May I ask, for the popular items on Black Friday, how fast can they sell out? Are we talking about a matter of minutes? Or an hour or so..?

    results vary. here's last year's thread on the subject for real-time information from that night:
    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/2193/us-lego-sh-black-friday-deals#latest

    basically, the 25% off stuff will sell out within a few hours. Bigger problem is site performance, as it is just getting slammed.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Very true. Even if you evaluate and order quickly, say at 12:08 am, and you buy 4 Imperial Flagships, Lego may cancel them. That was my experience.

    Frustrating as ones ordered after me went through. But I did not follow up with customer service, like I should have.

    I did get a bunch of other stuff. Basically - the great deals go lightning quick, and even then, you might still not get it.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ yeah, as we've seen with many of the S&H sales in the past year, orders are definitely NOT fulfilled int the order received. same thing happened on May the 5th. some orders got cancelled for being out of stock, but then another brickset user who ordered later gets their's fulfilled. really weird system.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited September 2012
    They had stuff on sale that had been retired for a while. Does anyone remember the Grand Carousel being on sale yet it wasn't in stock?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,229
    edited September 2012
    I think waiting for BF to get a FB is asking a lot.. many times these sets are not available at sale prices, or VERY limited stock... GG was sold out online about 2 weeks before the BF sale, and I guess they came back, but not sure if they were really 'in stock' it iwas a a glitch in the system.

    All Im saying is if you need a set, get it now.. If you are looking to get more of them, then 'roll the dice'
    same applies for MMV, IS, TE, etc
  • AmberylAmberyl Member Posts: 193
    edited September 2012
    I'm getting back into collecting after a decade-long Dark Age. I'm trying to figure out how to prioritize set acquisition in such a way as to take best advantage of discounts while still getting sets before they either go out of print or really have their prices escalate. I was hoping folks here might have some advice.

    I want a steady supply of Lego to build (figure about 2000 pieces worth a week), but I can buy and hoard (i.e., I don't mind buying significantly in advance of when I have build time); I'd prefer varied build types from set to set, so I'm not doing, say, a bunch of modulars in a row. I live in the Washington DC area, so there's a Lego store near, but the TRUs/Targets/Walmarts don't often clearance out Lego. I have Amazon Prime, so I get free shipping, and I use CamelCamelCamel to watch prices. I have a Lego VIP membership but usually end up buying non-exclusive sets from Amazon rather than [email protected]

    Here's my current list of desired still-in-print sets (organized by theme, but no need to buy the sets together):

    - All the still-in-print modular buildings (I have the Fire Brigade already)
    - Medieval Market Village and the Kingdoms Joust
    - Death Star and Millenium Falcon
    - Ninjago Fire Temple, Epic Dragon Battle, and Destiny's Bounty
    - PotC BP and QAR ships
    - Maersk Train
    - Hillside House
    - Batcave, Quinjet, and Dynamic Duo Funhouse Escape
    - The Monster Fighters sets (I have the Vampyre Castle already)
    - The LotR sets
    - City of Atlantis [out of print]
    - Prince of Persia sets [out of print]

    And... what am I missing that I ought to get, if my primary interest is interesting builds? (My other recent purchases: Hogwarts, Diagon Alley, tPortal of Atlantis, Jabba's Palace, the non-ship PotC sets, the Alien Conquest sets, and the Winter sets).

    I also have a dilemma: I have a full collection of early Star Wars Lego through 2001 or so, including a fair number of MSIB sets, including the UCS sets. Sell, or build?

    Your thoughts appreciated.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited September 2012
    ^You should sell, especially the UCS Snowspeeder, specifically to myself =)

    From my perspective, for personal collection its better to get the sets going EOL at any price than to hoard current sets on sale. So my suggestion would be MMV, DS, IS, Fire Temple and both/either PotC ships. The rest should be around for a while. PoP and City of Atlantis are slow movers, so I think time is on your side for to still get those at a good price.
  • AmberylAmberyl Member Posts: 193
    Do you think that MMV, DS, the Fire Temple, and the PotC ships are likely to continue to be in stock through Black Friday and on sale then? DS especially, since it's so expensive.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,229
    Pitfall69 said:

    They had stuff on sale that had been retired for a while. Does anyone remember the Grand Carousel being on sale yet it wasn't in stock?

    Yes this, GG, and some other sets being listed online at a sale price but 'sold out' This seems to happen a lot with LEGO.com and probably will occur again.. I'm sure that Customer Service got hammered when the GG inexplicably popped back up with a sale price of 120 (I think thats what it was), same with I think the Taj Mahal and others... Then you have ones that never die (Pig Farm comes to mind) and they keep going in and out of stock, but I'm guessing most of the sets that have been discussed over and over on this site are really due for the EOL treatment this year IMO...

    Medieval Market Village
    Imperial Shuttle
    Technic Excavator
    Fire Brigade

    the 'Maybe's'
    Tower bridge
    Death Star ( I think this one is due to go only because they have a replacement in the SSD)
    Yellow Cargo train
    train station
    Airport
    Joust set (Heck the Mill Village Raid was not out long either)
    Im guessing the rest of PoTC will be discounted if not gone by then.
    Im sure there will be smaller sets to go away as well, but those are the biggies I see.
    Maybe even sales on LoTR
    On the fringe I think Grand Emporium as well... it depends on if LEGO kept the FB on an extended release, but not the GE.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    I don't know if they will be or not. Or even if they will all discontinue this year. It can go either way for all these sets. MMV & DS are overdue according to normal shelf time of sets, Fire Temple is the last of the Red Label Ninjago sets so is overdue also. PotC ships might be early to retire, but may be a sneaky one with early EOL.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    This will be a pretty fun Black Friday. I think the Winter Bakery is on its way out too. Seems odd to have 3 Winter Village sets out at the same time. Although we have 4 Modular Buildings out at the same time. The Joust set came out last year and we are still waiting on what the set will be this year correct? I can't see 3 large castle building sets out at the same time, but we might. I wonder if there will be any giveaways like there were last year? Oh, my wife is going to kill me this year :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Black Pearl has already EOLed, the remaining stock is all that is left, so don't wait for Black Friday on that one.

    The rest, we're all guessing on just like you, but MMV, DS, Fire Temple shouldn't wait either, those may go at any time. Since the first two are 10xxx sets, those are considered exclusives and we don't get a heads up from dealers on their EOL status since they can't buy them in most cases.
  • AmberylAmberyl Member Posts: 193
    Black Pearl looks only temporarily out of stock, from shop.lego.com?
  • CurvedRoadPlateCurvedRoadPlate Member Posts: 257
    Pirates of The Caribean appears to be on the way out. Sets have been put on clearance at many of the big box non Lego stores. If you see a reasonable price on a Black Pearl or QAR I'd take it.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ true, but hardly news. This stuff started clearancing right after Christmas. It was a dog seller and LEGO dropped it fast. most retail outlets near me don't have any left, the LEGO store only has a few SKUs, so my guess is it's mostly online only (LEGO or otherwise) until it dries up.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 7,064
    Surely the Harry Potter stuff is on the way out too. Might be one last chance to get those if you haven't yet
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Amberyl said:

    Black Pearl looks only temporarily out of stock, from shop.lego.com?

    You misunderstand...

    The stock that Shop @ Home has is no different than the stock that Walmart has left, it is the remaining "in the wild" inventory.

    [email protected] is run like any other business, it receives shipments and orders product from TLG (the parent company) just like Walmart does.

    Black Pearl has ended its last production run and is no longer able to be ordered from TLG. So what exists is all that exists. You will continue to see it for some time to come, shipments take time to arrive, inventory is found and moved around all the time. But TLG isn't making any more of that ship. The last shipment is probably on a container ship from Denmark to the US right now which is why it is "backordered". But those "backordered" sets have already physically been produced, they just aren't ready for shipment yet.

    Ironically, they ARE still making QAR, which has been out longer... go figure..
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ My daughter is 4 years old, I have put aside one each of all the modern releases of HP sets just in case when she's 7, she starts reading HP and wants to build them.

    3 years from now, I have no doubt they will be quite expensive.

    If she doesn't want to build them, I'll sell them for lots of money. ;)
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    ^ The Black Pearl is still very much available from UK S&H. It's also in quite a few retailers round me.
  • AmberylAmberyl Member Posts: 193
    Ah, thanks. By the way, BP is no longer backordered on shop.lego.com. But I just picked one up from Walmart.com -- $81 plus a dollar for shipping, so if anyone's looking for one, that's a decent deal (basically what Amazon had it discounted down to before it went out of stock).
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    You doing that with the Friends' series too LFT?
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^^^I was thinking something similar of how many sets of a category Lego likes to keep released simultenously. Such as ships, trains, etc. For instance:

    Ships: IF, QAR, BP (3 ships)
    Trains: EN, Maersk, Yellow Cargo, Red Cargo, Passenger (5 trains)
    Modulars: FB, GE, PS, TH (4 buildings)
    UCS: IS, SSD, R2D2, B-wing (4 sets)
    Sculpture: TB (1 monument)
    Winter Village: TS, Bakery, PO (3 WV sets)

    Most of the time, they just discontinue one of the currents and insert a new release. But what's stopping them from EOL'ing all 3 ships without releasing a new ship to take its place?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    richo said:

    ^ The Black Pearl is still very much available from UK S&H. It's also in quite a few retailers round me.

    It will be for awhile, they only stopped making it about a week ago.

    All I was saying to the original poster is that it might not be here for Black Friday, if she really wants it, buy it now.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^ The IF is gone already and there are only 2 ships available now. The IF went out about the time the BP was released (with a small overlap). Also, the WV Bakery will go out after some overlap with the WV Cottage. But I don't remember TLG having 4 UCS sets out simultaneously, but I could be mistaken. One question: Which will go first...the IS or SSD?

    In all, TLG has a lot more sets out than they ever have in the past. Is this the new trend for TLG?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    The IS has been out for 2 years, SSD hasn't been out 1 year yet...
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^^Didn't mean now, but max for the couple past years. As IF, EN, and TS are currently gone for good.

    Was there any overlap for Taj, Eiffel and Tower Bridge? So maybe that's a 2 max simultaneously theme. Perhaps we'll get a new one soon and not lose TB for a while?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,927
    Depending on how you define overlap, there is always the possibility of overlap. Lego may EOL a set and not have any available from Lego stores, but they cannot control other stock once it has gone to retailers. So it can still be available for some weeks, months or even years in small independent toy stores if it is a bad seller, and they never drop their price.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^The definition of "overlap" for me is what TLG is doing with their distribution. How retailers manage their inventory is beyond TLG's control. At least that is how I was using the term in my comment above...
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited September 2012
    Having watched the Mega Factories tv show - lego episode - I came to the conclusion (and they mentioned it) that Lego's production and supply chain is so sophisticated that the company can adjust production based on demand by continent and do it very, very quick.

    I take this to mean that they can keep more sets active longer than they could say 5 or 10 years ago.
  • GodspeedGodspeed Member Posts: 14
    dougts said:

    results vary. here's last year's thread on the subject for real-time information from that night:
    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/2193/us-lego-sh-black-friday-deals#latest

    basically, the 25% off stuff will sell out within a few hours. Bigger problem is site performance, as it is just getting slammed.

    Cheers for that. I'm looking to buy an Imperial Shuttle, is it not wise to wait for Black Friday? Or the other option I'm hoping for is another sale on it at Target, Amazon or Toysrus, is that a likely possibility in the next two months?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ hard to say, it's all just (educated) guesswork for the most part.

    Target and Amazon have both had very good sales on this item in the past 3-4 months, though I suppose it's possible they do it again. LEGO had it marked down 20% on May the 4th as well.

    *IF* this lasts until Black Friday, it seems likely to be another 20% or 25% off at LEGO, but that is a bit of a gamble.
  • GodspeedGodspeed Member Posts: 14
    ^ Yea I've seen all the past sales, I hate that I missed the May the 4th price. However I'm not in the US, but I've got a relative there now who can receive my Lego goodies to be retrieved at a later date. I guess I'll just have to hope for a sale!
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    If.........IS is 25% on BF - that's $194.25 here in the States. And that sucker would be gone in a flash at that price. Just dreaming here people.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ It was 20% off, plus TC-14, on May 4th...

    And of course it did sell out then too... ;)

    Would I take 5% more off, or the TC-14? I think I'd rather have the TC-14...
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Yup, me too. A seller could make about $27 off of it on eBay right now. 3 sold for for $33 w/ free ship. So minus postage and fees the net profit would be around $27-28. Pretty nice for something you got for free. And, the price is just going to keep going up. :-)
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 7,064
    I am hoping they discount the Death Star even if it lingers on into 2013. That way I can justify getting it with the wife. "You bought WHAT for HOW much?!" "Yes, but it was on sale!" It will go great I am sure...
  • ringleheimringleheim Member Posts: 168
    Winter Village Sets...

    There have been a few comments suggesting some of them are still available.

    NONE of them currently exist on the LEGO USA website, except for the new Cottage, not for sale until October 1st.

    I was under the impression that the Bakery, Toy Sop, and Post Office are now EOL. If a set is removed from the website, doesn't that mean its gone (at least from Lego stores or Shop at Home?)

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ The holiday sets are an exception to that rule. They have been doing this for the past 3 years, so this is normal. They will be back, except for 10199 Toy Shop, that is gone for good.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^I wonder what the top price will be for WV Toy Shop in the coming years. Do you guys foresee this breaking $300 at some point, like Christmas '13 or '14?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ seems steep to me, but then again I wouldn't pay the going rates on CC, MF, MS, etc. either.

    I'd say $100+ this holiday season, maybe $150-175 for 2013, then I bet people just give up on it if they don't have it by then.
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