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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    Maybe he got his lists confused. That's almost my exact "don't touch those sets except for 75% off" list. ;)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ 7189 was a hard sell for awhile, since B&N had it in stock 6 months past EOL. They only finally ran out this summer which is why the prices are only now starting to rise, so they must have had a ton of them.

    I agree with you that 7869 will do well, but it will never sell in volume. It is only of those sets that you can do fine with having 10 or 20 of, but I wouldn't want 100 of them.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited August 2012
    @Bandit - I didn't realize that before, don't recall seeing it but will rewatch Ep. III soon. Great, now it has to go on my 'Want List' at EOL prices. I'm anti-Clone War so when I could have picked it up at RRP I just passed it by as 'meh' for the high RRP =(
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ haha, uh oh, forget I said anything then. ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^Yes, It might do ok. I was commenting earlier on why Mill Village Raid wasn't doing so well after EOL.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited August 2012
    ^^^ 7869. Yup I have 10 of them. Course that is a lot for me. I don't see me losing money on them. If I can get more at a good discount (BF?) I will.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    I think MVR will do better this winter when The Hobbit sets come out. It looks like it will match up well with the Bag Ends set.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Yup, as will the MVV.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^Mill Vegan Village?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Men's Viagra Village?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^That will definitely go "up" in value
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited August 2012
    ^^I don't think I will be visiting there.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Tangent - what's up with set 6873 (Spiderman and Doc Ock)? It is selling for over retail on eBay. [email protected] is out of the set and it just came out a couple month's ago. Is it going to be a good one for resale? 295 pcs for $30 seems to be a great price. Any thoughts?

    Also, I was surprised to find one at my Wally World this evening. The only one they had. A pleasant surprise. Just wish they had 6. :-)
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    6873 is still in that very narrow "available, but not readily" window. Give it a few weeks and it should drop.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Odd that they are going above RRP on Ebay. Every Lego store I have been in has had plenty of them. Personally, I think its just a minifig set. The building part is meh . . .
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    It'll be back in stock soon. Then the Xmas rush - out of stock again. January comes, back in stock.
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    I skimmed the thread from page 100 forward, found people talking about the dealer "last order date" list but didn't actually find the list. Could anyone give a pointer to what page or date range it was posted?

    Thanks!
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Really, the dealer lists don't mean much except in hindsight. What is discussed here is just about as accurate as it gets. For anything else, the one or two year time frame will apply to "most" things depending on the theme.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    FatMatt said:

    I was looking through one of the threads and found this amusing. It is from April 2011:

    "If I was a dealer and not a collector and had investor I would be rich.. lol But I am not.
    I know which sets will be worth mint when they are released by just looking at them..
    thinking about it.. I would buy these sets..
    4182 Isla De La Muerta
    4191 The Captain's Cabin
    4193 The London Escape
    4865 The Forbidden Forest
    6918 Blacksmith Attack
    7189 Mill Village Raid
    7327 Scorpion Pyramid
    7914 Mandalorian Battle Pack
    7869 Battle for Geonosis
    7868 Mace Windu's Jedi Starfighter
    7929 The Battle of Naboo
    7956 Ewok Attack
    8487 Flo's V8 Cafe
    8638 Spy Jet Escape
    9348 Community Minifigure Set
    853111{Exclusive Weapon Training Set}
    853176 Skeleton Mummy Battle Pack
    all of the collectable figures.."

    Was this guy serious? Okay, he may have picked a couple winners out of the 18 he stated.

    Maybe they were thinking that if they bought a MASSIVE amount of them or something.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ and wait for inflation to bring them to RRP
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    That persons list is an example of why this thread is about speculation and by no means the final word on what will become valuable.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    I skimmed the thread from page 100 forward, found people talking about the dealer "last order date" list but didn't actually find the list. Could anyone give a pointer to what page or date range it was posted?

    Thanks!

    I do not think the whole list has been posted. For (what should be) obvious reasons, I'm not going to post it. If someone else wants to, that is their business.

    But as others said, the list is not really a EOL list, it is a last order by date for the smaller third party dealers, and it does not always reflect the true marketplace.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ plus, and correct me if I'm wrong, it does not contain info on 10xxx exclusives, which is mostly what we care about anyway (what I care more about anyway).
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ You are correct, only 4 digit sets are on the list.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    The learning curve for aftermarket selling is about a year I think. I'm not going to rip on that guy too much. But after a few years - you tend to get an immediate feeling good or bad about any given set.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ I agree, and I'm still wrong plenty of times. :)

    And sometimes I'm right, without knowing it either... I had no idea on Ninjago, I was just picking up everything that was 50% off, and that stuff happened to be in the lot. It evens out all the Atlantis and PQ stuff, to a point... but overall the Walmart clearance last year was a wash for me, the profits from half of it paid for the losses on the other half.

    But I was very new then. :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Raise your hand if you had insight to purchase 100 UCS MF's, CC's, MS's and are now reading this forum from your yacht???
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ You know, the funny thing is, if you really had 100 UCS Falcons right now, you'd have to underprice the market pretty far to move them in any short period of time.

    Are they selling for $3K on eBay? Yes, but very slowly... Maybe a few a month total... To move 100 of them you might have to sell them for $2,200 to $2,500 to get people to move on them.

    Same problem with the other sets, any kind of volume and the market just isn't there. For example, I'm offering my new UCS Falcon for $2K that is just missing the retail box and I'm not getting any interest.

    So there really are just not that many people who want to buy.
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,262
    ^ There are plenty of people that WANT to buy, just not plenty that can afford to buy. I'd love to buy one and I'd probably break down and pay $2k if I could but that isn't gonna happen right now.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I don't think one would care if they sold only 1-2 MF's a month. Especially if they got them on sale like I got mine. $349.99 and free shipping. So...even if you sold only 2 a month for $2,100 SEALED that would net you $3,500 before EBay and paypal fees. Then, you would obviously be selling other expensive Lego sets because you had the insight to purchase those ultra collectible sets.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    edited August 2012
    If I had 100's of those sets I would not flood the market. There would be no need to. I would be making 60-70k a year just selling a few sets a month.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    My point is that NOBODY had the insight or even the funds to invest in 100's of these sets. We should just take whatever information put out there with a "grain of salt" and try to make educated guesses and "informed" purchases.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    I don't think one would care if they sold only 1-2 MF's a month. Especially if they got them on sale like I got mine. $349.99 and free shipping. So...even if you sold only 2 a month for $2,100 SEALED that would net you $3,500 before EBay and paypal fees. Then, you would obviously be selling other expensive Lego sets because you had the insight to purchase those ultra collectible sets.

    Capital has a time value, if you sell 2 a month, that is 50 months or 4 years.

    And I don't think you could have bought 100 at $349, that was a limit 2 deal, was it not? At $500 invested to return $2,000 after fees, 2 years later, is that a good deal? Yes. To do it 7 years later? Not as much of one.

    Also, there is risk, nothing stops TLG from doing a limited run of 10,000 UCS Falcons for $999, tossing in a chrome C-3PO to make the fans happy. :)

    I think if they did that, they'd sell every one of them in a few days.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    If I had $100,000 in cash sitting around that I felt comfortable using to buy hundreds of copies of just a couple expensive sets, I'd probably already have a yacht. :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    edited August 2012
    Ha. Anything is possible. Lol. They see the demand and yet they still haven't done it, so I highly doubt that would happen. Refer to HUW's April Fool's joke :)

    Yes, we know the many factors involved in the appreciation of a Lego set. I used an extreme example, but I still stand by my point.

    * As I'm standing on my soap box, LFT pulls it out from under my feet and says "No box for you!!!" *
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    There is no sure thing. Eggs, basket, blah blah blah. Using a massive amount of your assumedly limited capital on just a few expensive sets is risky indeed. No way would I ever have done that with the Falcon, especially when it seemed like TLG couldn't even get rid of them. A few? Sure. 100? No way. :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Yes, but my point was that if you had "inside information" (that is what people think this particular forum is all about) and HAD the capital you would certainly do it.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    Inside information or a time machine? If I had a time machine, I'd be winning powerball every week. ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Before we go way off topic. My comments were in reference to lists of potential money making sets and retail last order dates and expected EOL dates of current sets.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    If I had next Tuesday's newspaper, I could retire. Just have to know the right stocks to sell options on. :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Ok ok ok. Sigh...
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622

    Pitfall69 said:

    I don't think one would care if they sold only 1-2 MF's a month. Especially if they got them on sale like I got mine. $349.99 and free shipping. So...even if you sold only 2 a month for $2,100 SEALED that would net you $3,500 before EBay and paypal fees. Then, you would obviously be selling other expensive Lego sets because you had the insight to purchase those ultra collectible sets.

    Capital has a time value, if you sell 2 a month, that is 50 months or 4 years.

    And I don't think you could have bought 100 at $349, that was a limit 2 deal, was it not? At $500 invested to return $2,000 after fees, 2 years later, is that a good deal? Yes. To do it 7 years later? Not as much of one.

    Also, there is risk, nothing stops TLG from doing a limited run of 10,000 UCS Falcons for $999, tossing in a chrome C-3PO to make the fans happy. :)

    I think if they did that, they'd sell every one of them in a few days.
    Does anyone think Lego will ever do another set the way they did with the falcon by doing a pre order Limited edition?

    Would be fantastic if they did :)

    Ive got a soft spot for anything to do with limited editions xD
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ My only problem, newspapers don't come in boxes... :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    :)
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    gmpirate said:

    Odd that they are going above RRP on Ebay. Every Lego store I have been in has had plenty of them. Personally, I think its just a minifig set. The building part is meh . . .

    Tend to agree, although the prison cell and exam table are kind of cool. I wish they would have bulked up the lab a little and skipped the vehicle.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    Did anyone notice the BP is sold out at [email protected]?
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ about time!
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    edited August 2012
    QAR next?
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    Is there a chance that it changes back from 'sold out'? If not, that was a short lifespan since it was released only in November. QAR is older by 5 months, but sticking around?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Imperial Shuttle went to "Sold Out" on May 4th, then came back.

    It may be just sold out enough to not take new orders, but may come back with new shipments in a month.
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