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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ You make a good point, didn't think about that...

    So, perhaps Tower Bridge does go away this year. If so, what will replace it?
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Earth Dragon doesn't fly and the colors is the reason I suspect. My boys never played with the earth dragon.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    Lightning Dragon was the TRU exclusive in the U.S., not the Earth one.

    On a related note, I saw this posting for a modified Earth Dragon with wings:
    http://www.bricklink.com/message.asp?ID=651085
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Well... um, how do I put this... no it wasn't... :)

    I bought dozens of Lightning Dragons from Walmart after Christmas for $12.50 each. :)
  • j0rdantay10rj0rdantay10r Member Posts: 9
    ^My crazy WM had about 6 of them at $7. I was new to the game so I thought being able to pick them up at $7 and flip them at $40 was amazing. I then watched in horror as the price soared to just below $100.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Any thoughts on 10228 Haunted House being out of stock prior to Halloween and commanding a premium? I remember a few years ago Winter Toy Shop was out of stock prior to Christmas and it went for $120 on ebay all day long. Last Christmas Funhouse Escape also commanded a premium. 10228 will only initially be available from Lego stores and S&H. I have heard rumors of production problems and am starting to think this may be an easy $100 markup on ebay this fall. Input?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Maybe, but that is always a risk, you are playing against TLG's ability to produce more and being stuck with stock you can't sell.

    I've tried in-production sets, but I personally think they are more trouble than they are worth.

    To each their own...
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Also anybody have clarification on S&H new policy on shipping to third parties? I have free shipping thru 9/30 and this may help the above cause if they will let me ship to my buyers.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654

    ^ Well... um, how do I put this... no it wasn't... :)

    I bought dozens of Lightning Dragons from Walmart after Christmas for $12.50 each. :)

    Can't say I bought found "dozens", but I bought a few at Walmart as well. At the time I didn't think much of either. They were just do cheap they were just a "why not".

  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432

    ^ Well... um, how do I put this... no it wasn't... :)

    I bought dozens of Lightning Dragons from Walmart after Christmas for $12.50 each. :)

    Are we talking about the same #2509 Earth Dragon:
    http://dealnews.com/LEGO-Ninjago-Earth-Dragon-Defense-for-28-free-shipping/527256.html

    And #2521 Lightning Dragon?
    http://toysnbricks.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=36&t=4345
    http://www.brickset.com/brickLists/?3116
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited August 2012
    sidersdd said:

    Lightning Dragon was the TRU exclusive in the U.S., not the Earth one.

    Yup, I got the EDD at Kroger. So, not sure if the EDD was a TRU exclusive. And, LegoFanTexas mentioned that he got the LD at Wally World, so maybe none of the dragons were exclusive to TRU? Not that it matters now. Me thinks they've all been purchased.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    As far as buying the Haunted House for anticipated shortages. In prior years, this was a good strategy, but I think really since 2011, Lego has done a really good job of keeping up with demand. And if you really stop to think about it, they have over saturated the market with anticipated demand. Except for the Funhouse, there's really only been small hiccups here and there.

    In any case, I have to agree with LFT. In-production sets are generally more trouble than they are worth. Besides taking a lot of money off the table with expensive sets, you really have to stay on top of it with moving the sets quickly. Many times in the past I've missed the small windows of opportunity simply because my business demanded all my attention. By the time I had time for Lego again it was too late and I was stuck having to unload things at cost if I was "lucky".

    Also consider, that although the EBay prices of in-production runs look very tempting, much of the time what is selling is moving "very" slowly.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    I think LFT was talking about the Ice Dragon....
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    gmpirate said:

    As far as buying the Haunted House for anticipated shortages. In prior years, this was a good strategy, but I think really since 2011, Lego has done a really good job of keeping up with demand.

    Yep looking at the numbers I can do presales for $52 total profit per unit. I can always return unsold stock within 90 days if I do decide to speculate beyond presales. I just don't know if $52 is worth the time, I normally like at least $100 per unit. This set is just so darn cool and the very first real Halloween set.....I'll sleep on it.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    sidersdd said:

    ^ Well... um, how do I put this... no it wasn't... :)

    I bought dozens of Lightning Dragons from Walmart after Christmas for $12.50 each. :)

    Are we talking about the same #2509 Earth Dragon:
    http://dealnews.com/LEGO-Ninjago-Earth-Dragon-Defense-for-28-free-shipping/527256.html

    And #2521 Lightning Dragon?
    http://toysnbricks.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=36&t=4345
    http://www.brickset.com/brickLists/?3116
    *cough*

    umm, ICE DRAGON was $12.50 at Walmart...

    *cough*

    LIGHTNING DRAGON was Toys R Us Exclusive...

    Yea, I had my Ice and Lightning mixed up, so, um, well, I'm an idiot...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Bandit said:

    I think LFT was talking about the Ice Dragon....

    Yes, I got completely confused here...

    #2260 - Ice Dragon - these were $12.50 on clearance at Walmart

    #2509 - Earth Dragon - I don't recall if I bought any at Walmart, but I might have done

    #2521 - Lightning Dragon - These were indeed TRU exclusive and were very limited in the US, these went up very quickly after EOL

    #2507 - Fire Temple Dragon - This is still for sale, strangely enough

    Very sorry for my prior error.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    edited August 2012
    I started this mess. I meant "Lightning", when I said "Earth". I swear!

    Funny thing. I was able to grab about 20 Ice Dragons from an independent Canada online toy store about 3 months ago. Most of their prices were "aftermarket", except 2260 was $25. I bought 20, paid a boatload of shipping and UPS charges. But it was still a good deal.
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    edited August 2012

    Any thoughts on 10228 Haunted House being out of stock prior to Halloween and commanding a premium?

    Personally I think dealing with in-production sets is high effort for limited gain, although you can always fall back on the return policy "put option" to minimize your downside.

    You are in effect speculating that you can predict a temporary disruption in the supply, and fill that disruption at exactly the right time. That can be tricky, although Christmas is the right time to do this sort of thing.

    Here are some ways I've been successful at selling in-production sets:

    1: Purchase in one country where the price is low, and being willing to ship to another country where the price is high. But since lots of sellers are willing to ship international there isn't a lot of room here anymore.

    2: Purchase in one country where a set is sold, and sell in another country where it isn't. For whatever reason there are a small handful of sets that LEGO doesn't sell worldwide. Identifying these sets can sometime be profitable, but only if there aren't another dozen sellers doing the same thing.

    3: Splitting sets. I've been able to get 50%-75% profit by identifying sets that have high demand for some subcomponent of the set. I don't love doing this as it can be "high labor" to split out the sets, especially if the split doesn't line up with how the parts are bagged. The classic example of splitting sets is to separate the minifigs from the elements so that each can sell into their respective markets.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    On a similar topic of selling in-production sets, occasionally it is possible for US folks to make a few bucks by obtaining sets that are EOL in the US but still in stock in Europe. This is a great system, since your money is tied up for a very minimal amount of time, and you already know what you will get for the set on the aftermarket by checking ebay prices.

    Example: Earlier in the year, Hogwarts Express (4841) went EOL in the US. However, Amazon.it or Amazon.fr (can't remember which) had a great price on the set. I bought 4, and made between $35-$50 on each one. They were shipped to me in individual boxes, so all I had to do was take out the Amazon packing slip, add a little padding, and ship. I spent an estimated 15 mins of my time for each set, and I made a minimum of $35 each. Not bad!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I know this, you know this, but telling everyone that is a sure fire way to kill it for next time.

    Just something to think about, there are tips to share and tips to keep. :)

    I am always happy to talk about sales and deals, but almost never talk about how or where I sell stuff.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    LFT, sorry friend! I didn't really consider that perhaps this little strategy was best kept secret. Well, too late to edit my post, so the best we can hope for is that it will be buried in this 5.6k-post thread before long.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I think that everyone has their own strategy for selling their Lego sets. What works for one person in one country may not work for another. As far as giving away tips and secrets, well, this is probably not the place to discuss them :)

    Can't wait for the Haunted House!!!!

  • MCNwakeboardMCNwakeboard VirginiaMember Posts: 280
    edited August 2012
    The problem with selling current sets is that they aren't as discounted as something that is EOL which is where about half of my profit comes from most of the time. I have had some success selling current sets but the last time it happened when the emerald night had been sold out during December of 2009.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Yeah, it's a crap shoot selling current sets. It's been discussed many times in these forums that people are shying away from buying current production sets in fear that the seller may be fraudulent. I never buy current production sets anywhere but Amazon (fulfilled by Amazon) TRU or [email protected]
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,557
    edited August 2012
    ^ The problem with selling current sets is that they aren't usually as discounted as something that is EOL

    Sometimes you can get current sets heavily discounted. Just ask people in the UK that got some of the tesco deals :-)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Yes, I agree. You can some goods deals on sets that are on their way out. Timing is everything though. I've waited too long to buy some sets and when they were heavily discounted I failed to "pull the trigger" and they were gone.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I guess I play it a little safer. I will buy current sets that I plan on selling if they are at least 25% off. I'm sure they will be discounted more as they are near eol and placed on clearance but I generally don't have any luck in my area finding any left in stock by the time I get to the stores. Same goes for the online clearance sales, by the time I find out about them its too late.

    Note that I don't sell the current sets until after the set retires.
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    edited August 2012
    I agree with LFT regarding the need for discretion on certain things, which is why I tried to be not too specific in my post above.

    Some of the "opportunities" that exist have relatively thin markets. If more than a handful of sellers try to fill those markets the profit gets sucked out of it for everyone.

    There is a specific in-production set that I can purchase for around $125, split up, and resell for approximately a $80 profit after expenses. It probably takes me about an hour to split the set up and I consider $80/hr to be worth my time (especially since I can do the split while watching TV).

    The only problem; the market for this split set is very sparse. I don't think I could sell more than 2-4 per month and keep this profit margin. If I share the "secret" it wouldn't take many other resellers to suck all the profit out of the endeavor.

    I think overall our focus on this thread is strategic: "Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value". Perhaps I erred in drifting too far into the specific tactics.

    Cheers!
  • MCNwakeboardMCNwakeboard VirginiaMember Posts: 280
    All good points, the market for figures tend to drop fairly quickly after the sets are widely available but it is a good way to build up parts.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^Exactly. I just didn't want to be a MOD and tell everyone to stay on topic...lol.

    Is everyone excited about the Haunted House? Do you think it will be a good seller both retail and aftermarket? Will this set drive more interest into the Monsters line or do you think interest will wane when it is released?
  • timinchicagotiminchicago USAMember Posts: 239
    I was in Target the other day with my wife getting her nephew a B-day present. Normally she is indifferent to LEGO but she saw the MF display and commented on how cool the Ghost Train is and that she could totally see why a 9 year old would want it.
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079
    ^^from a "part-out seller"point of view i'm really excited for the haunted house! The minifigures will do pretty well,plus a ton of sand-green bricks AND some zombie-heads!!!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Yes, that what I was thinking. I'm planning on replacing the sand green with pink and making a classic Victorian for my daughter sans all the "haunted" stuff. Good for parts and I'll sell the minifigures maybe.
  • GothamConstructionCoGothamConstructionCo Colchester UKMember Posts: 741
    ^ Selling the minifigures will help pay for the pink bricks : )
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 867
    Pitfall69 said:

    Yes, that what I was thinking. I'm planning on replacing the sand green with pink and making a classic Victorian for my daughter sans all the "haunted" stuff. Good for parts and I'll sell the minifigures maybe.

    I've thought about this as well. Don't care about the "Haunted" part but a nice old Victorian could have its place in the Modular layout.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    last December, it was the VW Bus. was out of stock on [email protected] for most of December, showing ship dates of Dec 26. sold quite a few of them for well over RRP to wives/girlfriends who hadn't shopped earlier...
  • MCNwakeboardMCNwakeboard VirginiaMember Posts: 280
    Grand Emporium also had a similar increase in price around December of last year. It is just hard to predict which sets are going to be "out of stock" until December 26th and you might be stuck with a set that you can't sell for a while.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    @Daddydeuce - I've got one of those part-out for great profit sets too. Those are nice. But that's a different forum topic I think, "Expectations & Value From Parting Out Sets" would be my title.

    I think in-production falls short on the risk vs. reward equation.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Amazon.com has 25 copies in stock of MMV, they have been out of it for awhile now, just getting in a few here and there.

    It is full price, but free shipping and no tax to most people, if anyone wanted a copy, now might be a good time to get it. Not for resale perhaps at full price, but better than paying after market prices later.
  • morezonemorezone Member Posts: 207
    Looks like some of the Friends sets are going EOL in the UK already. Either that or a supply issue as it seems that only Lego [email protected] has stock at the mo. I'm new to this so if any one has any thoughts, please comment. I'm pretty sure they'll do very well at Xmas
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    The first wave of Friends sets are scheduled to EOL on 12/31/2012.

    That doesn't mean they won't run out of supply before then, or that they won't carry over into the new year, supply and demand will control that, but that is when all the sets released Jan 1st are scheduled to go away.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    Given that Lego has said they've sold "double" what they thought they would with Friends, I would think the first wave will live on into 2013.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ You could be right, I'm just saying what the dealer EOL list says...

    Or rather, last order date... Technically that isn't an EOL list, rather it is the last date dealers can order, but often they don't get stuff fulfilled right up until that date if they are gone sooner.

    So take it as a guideline more than anything else. :)
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    LFT, can you share anything else from that "last order" list?
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ It's been posted here a few times already if you look back.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    I was looking through one of the threads and found this amusing. It is from April 2011:

    "If I was a dealer and not a collector and had investor I would be rich.. lol But I am not.
    I know which sets will be worth mint when they are released by just looking at them..
    thinking about it.. I would buy these sets..
    4182 Isla De La Muerta
    4191 The Captain's Cabin
    4193 The London Escape
    4865 The Forbidden Forest
    6918 Blacksmith Attack
    7189 Mill Village Raid
    7327 Scorpion Pyramid
    7914 Mandalorian Battle Pack
    7869 Battle for Geonosis
    7868 Mace Windu's Jedi Starfighter
    7929 The Battle of Naboo
    7956 Ewok Attack
    8487 Flo's V8 Cafe
    8638 Spy Jet Escape
    9348 Community Minifigure Set
    853111{Exclusive Weapon Training Set}
    853176 Skeleton Mummy Battle Pack
    all of the collectable figures.."

    Was this guy serious? Okay, he may have picked a couple winners out of the 18 he stated.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited August 2012
    ^I hope so, because I have all of them too. And I'm feeling they were all losers, but with PotC having the most hope.

    Funny how he didn't list any of the confirmed winners from last season. Like the high RRP SW sets, WV TS, EN, IF and of course the Ninjago Dragons. I'm quite surprised at how high and fast AT-OT went up, that was a surprising one since the model is Clone Wars and not that attractive.

    So if he was a Sunday morning NFL analyst, I'm not betting on his 'picks of the week'.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ AT-OT was in Revenge of the Sith. It's not just a Clone Wars model...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Clearly he missed the mark on most of those... Mace Windu's Jedi Starfighter is the clear winner in that list, most of the rest, just well, no... :)
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited August 2012
    ^^ I think 7869 Battle for Geonosis will do well when it is retired. Why? It is a TRU exclusive, is Star Wars, is a nice looking set, and it has Capt Rex. Yup, it is overpriced, but I got most of the copies that I have at a discount.

    It is not a theme I am familiar with but I think 7189 Mill Village Raid will do OK too.

    But, yeah... I agree, I don't see the others in the list being $$ makers.
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