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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    And the Ninjago ship.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    With the additional POTC movies planned, I wonder if that means The Black Pearl will hang around for a long time.
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,263
    ^ since they supposedly already designed it I really hope they release it. I want more ships.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    If you hurry there's one in docking bay 94, but it's in A hurry to take off.
  • TitusTitus Member Posts: 79
    gmpirate said:

    ^ If you are buying from the Warehouse Deals expect the boxes to be beat up and the pieces sealed in the bags. Of course there can be exceptions, but that is the deal for the most part.

    Yeah, my concern is that "Used - Good" condition FAQ says "If an item has been tested and verified to be in perfect working order, but the item has large cosmetic damage or blemishes and/or has missing accessories"

    It seems like "missing accessories" for a Lego set could mean missing minifigs or missing just one piece that happens to be important to the set. That's why I was wondering if anybody had experience with that grading level.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ I don't know what else to add. My experience, and everyone's posted here, is that the Warehouse Deals "Lego" means new/complete with damaged boxes. The condition of the boxes will vary. If there is an issue outside of this, send it back.

    I'm not sure why you are getting hung up on legal text. It's not like it is realistic for Amazon to write specific text to every item they sell or associate with. Other than your time returning the item (which is painless) what have you to risk???
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    It's also seemingly completely arbitrary as far as the text goes. They must have a bunch of different people putting in those canned descriptions, and what's 'good' to one may be 'excellent' to another, and vice versa. You'll just never know...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    prevere said:

    And the Ninjago ship.

    :) I'm already buying these as I find them on sale, this one should do very well, $150 or so 6 months after retirement is my guess.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    If you hurry there's one in docking bay 94, but it's in A hurry to take off.

    What a piece of junk!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Bandit said:

    It's also seemingly completely arbitrary as far as the text goes. They must have a bunch of different people putting in those canned descriptions, and what's 'good' to one may be 'excellent' to another, and vice versa. You'll just never know...

    Yes, I've bought "Like-new" from Warehouse deals and the box was terrible, I've bought "good" and the item was sealed like new with shelf-wear.

    No telling what you'll get, but sometimes the deal is really a good one. :) Sometimes not, but generally returns are painless, so why not try?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    edited August 2012

    Pitfall69 said:

    If you hurry there's one in docking bay 94, but it's in A hurry to take off.

    What a piece of junk!
    Here we go again ;)

    prevere said:

    And the Ninjago ship.

    :) I'm already buying these as I find them on sale, this one
    should do very well, $150 or so 6 months after retirement is my guess.
    I think he's talking about the pirate ship in the new Ninjago cartoon. I could be wrong.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    If you hurry there's one in docking bay 94, but it's in A hurry to take off.

    What a piece of junk!
    Here we go again ;)
    "She'll make point five past lightspeed. She may not look like much, but she's got it where it counts, I've made a lot of special modifications myself. Now if you'll all just get on board, we can get out of here."
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    I think he's talking about the pirate ship in the new Ninjago cartoon. I could be wrong.

    So was I... :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,788
    prevere said:

    I think AC will be a difficult resell as well. I also not expecting TS to be a great return quickly, except for that Western Train.

    Im glad I got a few TS trains. Initially I was going to use them for parts, but they are just climbing fairly well right now.. never underestimate the power of trains, regardless of theme, I guess
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Or ships, which is why the Ninjago ship will do well. The Monster Fighter train should also do very well.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    I must be missing something. I'm not talking about the Ninjago ship that's out now. Isn't.there a pirate ship in the works for the Ninjago vs. Pirates?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    I must be missing something. I'm not talking about the Ninjago ship that's out now. Isn't.there a pirate ship in the works for the Ninjago vs. Pirates?

    Oh... I don't know, but probably...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    Either way. As long as Ninjago is on TV, the sets will do well. Again, PotC should do well because of the points made...Ships, New movies. Monsters should do well, everyone loves monsters.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^^^ Having two boys very much into Ninjago, it's my understanding that the pirate ship is actually "Destiny's Bounty" that the pirates stole and outfitted for themselves. Can't imagine Lego doing another Destiny's Bounty just with pirate flags. Would be a cool accessory set, however . . .
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    Oh. OK. That clears that up. Thanks
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    @LegoFanTexas, you do know how I must feel buying Lego being in Pakistan. Can you guess how much the official distributor is selling the NXT 2.0 for? About $460! And I can get these way low then this myself :)

    But I will check a friend in Germany and see if I can get good shipping deals. I found Netherlands to be a good spot as well. Danish Post sucks and my dealer friends all complain about shipping costs too high.
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079
    ^as the owner of a small BL-store (from Germany) i can co-sign that the shipping fees nowadays from Germany to all over the world are pretty low as long as the package surpasses a certain size/weight! So go ahead and buy all your stuff in Germany ;)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ What is the link to your store?
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079
    ^i'm allowed to post? Here ya'll go: http://www.bricklink.com/store.asp?p=dirtydiggler
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    A bricklinked Cafe Corner with replacement windows just sold for $660. Where is the ceiling on this set?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ I sold a new in box Cafe Corner last week for $1,500, I don't think it has been found yet...

    I think past $2,000 it will get really hard to sell one, and $1,000 is probably the limit for a used one.
  • j0rdantay10rj0rdantay10r Member Posts: 9
    10214 and 10220 went out of stock by Amazon over the weekend. FYI
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    Tower Bridge is not out of stock.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    I see VW in stock as well. Fullfilled by Amazon
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Tower Bridge is on the front of the 2013 Lego Calender, is it not?

    I suspect that set won't retire for another 18 months.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    Yeah, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the trend of a set being EOL is first it is Sold Out at Lego then the other retailers follow?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    Yeah, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the trend of a set being EOL is first it is Sold Out at Lego then the other retailers follow?

    Usually, but I've seen it the other way around as well.

    Wouldn't it be nice if Lego would just list EOL dates on their web site? :)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    If Lego listed their EOL dates - that would certainly change much of the strategy for resellers.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited August 2012
    ^I totally agree, it would be great if Lego simply listed an estimated EOL date. If they needed to change it at the last minute, big deal. At least we would have some idea of how long we have to buy a set.

    I suspect Lego doesn't list EOL dates, among other various reasons, because 1) perhaps even Lego doesn't decide until later in the product life cycle when the EOL date will be and 2) perhaps they think people will delay purchasing a set because they know they have until next year to buy it (or whatever the EOL date is).


    Oh, and just a side note for Pitfall: Not sure if you were aware, but you can press the "Alt" and "PrtScn" buttons on your keyboard to get a screenshot (might save some time versus taking a photo). You can then paste the image into Paint or other image program to save it. Just trying to be helpful, not nitpicking :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I continue to be amazed that #2506 - Ninjago Skull Truck is 33% off at Amazon.com and they STILL can't seem to sell them out. Shows over 999 in stock.

    Maybe it is the artwork, or the box, or something, but I built this set a few months ago.

    1. It is much larger than I thought it was going to be.
    2. The suspension is very cool!
    3. It has more detail than I expected for 515 parts.

    For $40.24 right now with free shipping, that is a steal!
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,263
    The WMs near me had stacks of these for 50% off after Christmas and at every WM it was one of the last things they still had in the clearance aisle.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    graphite said:

    The WMs near me had stacks of these for 50% off after Christmas and at every WM it was one of the last things they still had in the clearance aisle.

    *glances over at my stack of 46 copies of this set*

    Yea, tell me about it... :) For every Ice Dragon set that blows out of the water, you have a set like this that just won't go away.

    Which is such a shame, because the Skull Truck is actually a lot bigger and more impressive than the Ice Dragon. Go figure...

    But 50% off was $30, not that much less than the $40 it is going for now.

    2518 was also one of the last clearance sets to go from Walmart last year, but it finally is doing well, as those stocks have cleared out. 2506 can't do anything until Amazon actually runs out of stock.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    edited August 2012


    Oh, and just a side note for Pitfall: Not sure if you were aware, but you can press the "Alt" and "PrtScn" buttons on your keyboard to get a screenshot (might save some time versus taking a photo). You can then paste the image into Paint or other image program to save it. Just trying to be helpful, not nitpicking :)



    I'm on a tablet ;) I rarely use my laptop. I'm on my smartphone as I'm typing this.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    prevere said:

    If Lego listed their EOL dates - that would certainly change much of the strategy for resellers.

    Now what fun would that be? I think they don't do this because they want to sell those sets at retail and if they told us the dates, everyone would just wait til then to buy and probably get them on sale.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    I think for the most part we make pretty good educated guesses on when sets are going to EOL, but then you have the MMV monkey wrench.. lol.
  • LordHarrierLordHarrier Member Posts: 21
    Pitfall69 said:



    Oh, and just a side note for Pitfall: Not sure if you were aware, but you can press the "Alt" and "PrtScn" buttons on your keyboard to get a screenshot (might save some time versus taking a photo). You can then paste the image into Paint or other image program to save it. Just trying to be helpful, not nitpicking :)



    I'm on a tablet ;) I rarely use my laptop. I'm on my smartphone as I'm typing this.


    You can prntscrn on a tablet too.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    I don't have those buttons on my tablet keyboard.
  • TitusTitus Member Posts: 79

    Yes, I've bought "Like-new" from Warehouse deals and the box was terrible, I've bought "good" and the item was sealed like new with shelf-wear.

    Thanks LFT. That's what I was wondering.
  • LordHarrierLordHarrier Member Posts: 21
    Pitfall69 said:

    I don't have those buttons on my tablet keyboard.

    Pm sent.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    I'm convinced the Ice Dragon is an anomaly.

    Less parts and more retail distribution than the 2509 Earth Dragon Defense. Yet, in comparison, it commands an even price point in the aftermarket.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Based on the sample size of 1...

    My son prefers the Ice Dragon to Earth Dragon, so I suspect the demand is higher, which is why they hold the same value.

    Ice Dragon may even pass Earth Dragon here soon, I see it selling 2 to 1 over Earth.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    That just seems so strange with the EDD as a TRU exclusive and almost double in parts. But, you can't argue with the kids...
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    I do love the new 4-headed dragon. If I were 10, that would be the must set for Xmas.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    :) Yes, that 4 headed dragon is going to do very well in retirement... even with everyone knowing that and keeping a few back...

    As for EDD, while it might have been TRU exclusive in the US, it was not overseas, so there were still plenty of copies floating in the market.
  • berniebondberniebond AustriaMember Posts: 137

    Tower Bridge is on the front of the 2013 Lego Calender, is it not?

    I suspect that set won't retire for another 18 months.

    10189 was the pinup on the 2012 calender, was it not? so i think it wasnt even available anymore when they made the cover...
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