Minifigures and their Secondary Market Value

chuxtoybox

I'm thinking that LOTR and HOBBIT might rise in value once all of the sets Lego plans on releasing retire. There will always be Tolkien fans. I will be surprised if He Who Should Not Be Named will hold his value (I'm not talking about Voldemort but a shiny minifig that screwed up series 10 for the common man like me)

sidersdd

BrickDancer said:

What I'm aching for though is a Dark Bley torso. Can't believe this hasn't existed yet?

So how much of a purist are you? Won't brasso/wipe? Won't buy a non-released part?

I bought my dark bluish gray torso off a german seller, like most of the other unique colored parts I get. Somehow they get them from Legoland parks or other LEGO designers over there.

Picked up pearl gold torso off eBay from a seller (recommended on a thread on Bricklink). It's look legit and not wiped.

sidersdd

BrickDancer said:

Also, when's the pearl gold torso and dark pink hands gonna come along? Bright green is also close to completion if I recall correctly. Any others near it?

FigBits on Bricklink maintains a list of monochrome possibilities here.

Bright Light Blue just needs hands.
Dark Brown just needs hands.
Dark Orange just needs hands.
Dark Pink just needs hands.
Dark Puple just needs a head.
Medium Azure just needs hands.
Sand Blue just needs hands.

I was thinking Dark Brown and/or Dark Orange hands were coming with some of the new Star Wars figs. @Diggydoes, what color are Weequay's hands?

BrickDancer

^Thought I knocked out Dark Brown already, gotta check when I get back home. Very useful list there, but is it accounting for all colors?

@sidersdd yea no wiping for me. It has to be official and released parts. Or else gold torso would have came from C3PO or Atlantis Statue. I'm aching to finish off 'gold' as it looks so nice. I gotta hunt down those rare euro parts, just shipping cost is a pain for a single head or pair of hands. And ah yes on the Azure torso from Rebo, didn't even cross my synapses until you mentioned it. Oh so close on Azure now too.

cardgenius

chuxtoybox said:

"I have a bad feeling about this." Oh, sorry I thought this was the thread for SW quotes! But seriously, Harry Potter minifigs: the books are done and so art the movies, will HP drop in value? I'm actually hoping so because I'm trying to collect them. :}

I don't see them dropping. Harry Potter is huge world wide so I think there will always be demand for them, sets/figures. They're are a handful of minifigures that have been steadily climbing in price since last year and I think that will continue as they get older with no new sets/minifigures coming.

Diggydoes

@sidersdd Weequays hands(and head)look like light flesh(?)/nougat to me,not 100%sure but i'm certain they're far from dark brown!

joel4motion

any opinions on the free ironman minifigure that S@H is putting out in the uk with orders >£25? it is not currently in any of the three sets available? has it been released before?

GothamConstructionCo

@joel4motion He is also found in set #6867.

http://www.brickset.com/detail/?Set=6867-1

sidersdd

Diggydoes said:

@sidersdd Weequays hands(and head)look like light flesh(?)/nougat to me,not 100%sure but i'm certain they're far from dark brown!

Right, I wasn't thinking Weequay had dark brown hands. I thought they were either Dark Orange or Medium Dark Flesh (nougat). It was hard to tell from some of the photos out there:


It sounds like you're convinced they are the nougat color.

Diggydoes

They def.look more like nougat than dark orange! But you know sometimes it's hard to spot those small differences between all those colour-shades ;)

sidersdd

Cad Bane in #75024 is the one I was thinking of that might have dark brown hands. Or else they are just reddish brown. I haven't seen a clear photo yet.

roxio

Hey @samiam391 what do you reckon on the long term future of the TRU 1000 exclusive NY Yoda's ?

I got a friend to pick me one up on Thursday and its on it way now.

Beav

If imagine they'll do well, it's Star Wars based so they usually keep their value much more than other themes.

samiam391

@roxio- Beav makes the most prominent point regarding a pro of the minifigure. It's also quite comical, and I (and I know many others here with my discussions with them) would love to have one on our desk at home or work.

However, there are a few cons that you have to consider:

-The only difference between this minifigure and a typical clone wars yoda is the torso. The torso is plain white with "NY I <3". A somewhat comical shirt. To break this piece of information down further:
1. The torso can be easily copied as a custom. All minifigures can practically have a custom version made of them now, with printing becoming so high tech. However, a white torso with 3 simple "words" on it, especially that specific phrase, will be incredibly easy to copy. If you purchase any at all, it MUST have the bag, and it MUST have the slip around the X-wing. If you can get the other accessories (bag, pamphlet), that's a plus too. These few items are MUSTS if you want this item for re-sale, or just hoping to see its value increase over the next few months to a year.

2. The figure, itself is iconic. However, the rather goofy phrase on the torso, makes this figure anything but iconic. When I see this figure, I see it as a must have for collectors, yes, but also one that will not appeal to a moderate collector as much. If they are attempting to collect some rarer figures, will they choose CCBF or a Yoda with "NY I <3"? I think the answer is quite simple. Thus, simply put, the market for this figure, in my opinion, will be smaller then the normal.

-There is a somewhat unique opportunity to compare this figure to another, as well. Looking at early market value, as the figure is placed on eBay, the value is much, much lower than the equally produced SDCC 2012 minifigures. Each produced in 1,000, the SDCC figures were flying off of eBay in the early stages for $400. Prices, of course, went down somewhat quickly afterward, but still hovered in the $150 range with a few dropping to $100.

Looking at the Yoda figure, I haven't seen the same results. Prices are stagnant at $150. They began at the same price of $400, but no bites. I then saw new sellers with lower prices, and old sellers (those that listed first) quickly dropping their prices. The first bite I saw was at $180, and since then the prices have settled around that amount. I expect them to decrease a decent amount as the market becomes more flooded with the figure.

-This figure was also unique in the fact it could be purchased via an X-wing for $85. Unlike previous figures which were won by lottery/raffle/costume contest, etc.. I've been told there was no limit with the amount you could buy, thus it is presumable that several of the same people bought as many X-wings as they could carry. The market for this figure will be controlled for quite some time by a small handful of people. Think of it like gas stations across the street from one another competing in price. They'll go down bit by bit (don't think too much into this example, where the actual product increases/decreases), trying to beat out each others price. I expect the Yoda minifigure to do the same. Eventually their stock will run out, and the figure will go on a gradual path upwards. Perhaps not the best example, but the best I could think of off the top of my head.

-Returning back to the $85, remember that the person will want to, or at the least have to, make some sort of profit. They won't want to lose money. Thus, there is a $ amount that yoda will never go under ($85-xwing $). However, I doubt (more like guarantee), because of the amount of re-sellers on eBay with this figure, we will ever see this figure.

In a rather poor summary here, I would say it will take some time for this figure to move at all. It will decrease, as these figures always do, in price. However, it will take a bit longer for it to begin to increase. If you are looking to re-sale, buy it very, very cheap. Don't purchase for $120 looking to make a profit within the next week or so. If you are looking for one for yourself, and are merely curious about where it could go, be patient. Give it time for the price to drop, and then give it a lot longer amount of time to increase. :o)

Beav

Cheers for that Sam, been watching a few on Ebay and wondering about what price to take the plunge at.

roxio

I agree the value is having the sealed bag - unfortunately this is all I will be getting so it won't be getting opened. Can't complain as I've only had to pay shipping, friend has kept all the other paraphernalia that came with the X-Wing purchase

piratemania7

Generally speaking I like that my classic pirate figs hold their price fairly well; I am not shocked that they can be higher than you would anticipate but considering age and a couple of the more rare torso prints it's also surprising that its like this, but hey im not complaining!

flakmaniak

I was actually surprised to find Redbeard on Bricklink for $4 or whatever. Supposedly new ones seem to cap out at $10. Didn't buy him but at some point I'll have to get one since my brother and I never had him as far as I recall, only captain Ironhook. Which still lets me build a custom Redbeard-ish captain because they've the same face and hat, but still.

...I guess if there were a $4 billion movie franchise behind captain Redbeard, and not just nostalgia from Lego Racers, then he'd be worth big bucks.

Pitfall69

SDCC 2013

BoiseState

Harry Potter figs are going crazy.. Trelawney, Luna lovegood, Bellatrix, etc..

Pitfall69

^It is the new generation of readers and movie watchers.

cloaked7

So, what is the prediction on the SDCC figures/sets? Will the Micro Bag End go up in value over the current $100 selling price? Will Azog appreciate over time beyond the current $1,000 selling price? I'm not into the minifigs are some of you are, so I'm clueless. Clueless, but still curious. :-)

Pitfall69

Well, I know that this year's SDCC Minifigures are a sore subject, right @samiam391 ;)

cloaked7

The whole 'LEGO giving away sets/minifigs that are put on eBay and sell for hundreds of dollars' is a very interesting subject. With a lot of perspectives and opinions.

I must admit I don't fully understand why LEGO does it, especially when they frown on people profiting from the resell of their sets. Why only produce 100 (or 1,000) of any LEGO? I get the marketing aspect, etc., but still don't buy into (no pun intended) on what LEGO does at the Cons.

TheLoneTensor

cloaked7 said:

The whole 'LEGO giving away sets/minifigs that are put on eBay and sell for hundreds of dollars' is a very interesting subject. With a lot of perspectives and opinions.

I must admit I don't fully understand why LEGO does it, especially when they frown on people profiting from the resell of their sets. Why only produce 100 (or 1,000) of any LEGO? I get the marketing aspect, etc., but still don't buy into (no pun intended) on what LEGO does at the Cons.

The thing is, at the cons, Lego generates excitement & anticipation, and as a result gets visibility & marketing by releasing these rare figs/sets. On the other hand, someone reselling 10 BTTF cars on ebay doesn't generate them any publicity really.

cloaked7

^ True, but as my grandmother always said "It's a very thin pancake that doesn't have 2 sides!" :-) What about the other side of this pancake? Is it worth it, when everything is considered? Personally, I have a problem with the hypocrisy of LEGO. They frown on profiteering, but then blatantly create it. Also, it is ironic that for all the excitement these figures are intended to create I have mainly read about just the opposite, disappointment and frustration. This is from someone just sitting on the sidelines and taking it in. Never been to a Con and probably never will.

TheLoneTensor

cloaked7 said:

^ True, but as my grandmother always said "It's a very thin pancake that doesn't have 2 sides!" :-) What about the other side of this pancake? Is it worth it, when everything is considered? Personally, I have a problem with the hypocrisy of LEGO. They frown on profiteering, but then blatantly create it. Also, it is ironic that for all the excitement these figures are intended to create I have mainly read about just the opposite, disappointment and frustration. This is from someone just sitting on the sidelines and taking it in. Never been to a Con and probably never will.

Oh no, I'm with you 100% I think it's a terrible practice and it's only (hypocritically) condoned in the name of marketing. There are many ways to mitigate it as well that others have suggested, like making the figures & sets available widely later, and just making the backing card/packaging/box unique to the con. There would still be word of mouth, the con people would still get an exclusive thing and the rest of us wouldn't be excluded from the fun.

cloaked7

Is the Micro Bag End going to be released later? I read that Azog (although slightly different) will be. To your point, why it can't be be same Azog without the packaging is beyond me. :-)

vitreolum

Micro Bag End will not be released later. At least they haven't rereleased comicon exclusive so far.

CCC

The instructions will get out, and you'll be able to build it easy enough. I doubt it has any unique parts that will never come out in another set.

jasor

It's common practice among brand conscious companies. TLG doesnt condone behavior, and makes a show of trying to stop it...but knowing full well that it's marketshare would diminish if that small percentage DIDN'T purchase extra product to hold for later.

Both sides are about marketing. Hype for the cons, reseller finger-shaking for the brand folks. Believe me...I'm fluent in corporate doublespeak.

The marketing/financials division is whooping and cheering, and the PR division is running around with scrolls of paper/teetering tablets with info to band-aid another pinhole in the snare drum.

cloaked7

doublespeak is doubleplusbad

Gotta love doublepluslike 1984

cloaked7

Sorry, the 'love doublepluslike' was redundant. 'doublepluslike' would have been appropriate.

Also, I'm glad I don't care about the super hero minifigs. I am in now way tempted to pay more than $10.00 for any of them. Plastic crack. :-) And, no offense to anyone that would play $10++++ for a minifig. Just saying, it is nice to have zero anxiety about them. Now, my little 40K guys, that's different! :-)

samiam391

cloaked7 said:

So, what is the prediction on the SDCC figures/sets? Will the Micro Bag End go up in value over the current $100 selling price? Will Azog appreciate over time beyond the current $1,000 selling price? I'm not into the minifigs are some of you are, so I'm clueless. Clueless, but still curious. :-)

You only get less clueless by being curious!

The simple answer to all those questions is yes. I expect the history of all past exclusives to be continually redundant.

Even with re-releases of similar minifigures, minifigures/sets continue to hold their value if they are limited to a xxxxx number.

In specfic reference to the Azog minifigure which you've brought up a few times, it will also go up. It's anyone's guess of where it goes, but I know a few specific things about SDCC. Specifically, how the minifigure was handed out and what happened to most of them.

A MNIB SDCC Azog figure will be even rarer and more un-heard of then almost any other minifigure.

Yes, there has already been mention of another and more accurate Azog minifigure being re-leased, but the fact is that exclusives and variations hold their value.

With two more Hobbit movies coming out, more hobbit sets, I anticipate big things for this minifigure. I may be alone on this, but I'll stand by it.

LEGO minifigures, specifically exclusive ones, are entering entirely new thresholds. The same as Comic Book variations of Super Heros are limited and fetch large sums of money, so are limited LEGO minifigures.

Think about it. Counting the lanyard and baggie, there are less than 125 totally complete Super Hero minifigure collections. Many that even have the NYTF figures may not have gotten a hold of this years or last years exclusives, or even worse they've been forgotten in some old storage locker. That brings the number to less than 125.

If the LEGO brand continues to stay relevant, then LEGO Exclusive minifigures will be some of the most sought after in any collective category.

Basically, I'm incredibly excited to see where the future of exclusive LEGO minifigures goes :o)

Beav

Not sure my wallet shares your excitement Sam. ;)

samiam391

Beav said:

Not sure my wallet shares your excitement Sam. ;)

My mouth says yes above, but my wallet says no... always... I'm right there with you :o)

sjerakat

I've got Cloud City and the Boba Fett from this set sells on eBay for over $200. I know he has printed arms but I don't think he's really that spectacular, I actually think the newer Fett minifig that came with the Slave 1 is much cooler. Since you can get a cloud city for around 500 or so I'm surprised that Boba fetches 200+ on his own

TheLoneTensor

I've never quite understood the aftermarket prices for the collectible minifigs (and I mean the really collectible ones, not the ones in the packs), but then again, I never got into sports cards, etc. I get having them if you went to the event, etc., but not if your entire reason for going to the event was to get them, or you pay hundreds for them in the aftermarket. The Cloud City Boba Fett is the poster child for this. Why pay so much for a fig that is in nearly all ways inferior to the one you can pick up in a $20 set today? If Lego does ever have a bubble to pop, these things will be the canary in the mine.

Brick_Obsession

tensor said:

I've never quite understood the aftermarket prices for the collectible minifigs (and I mean the really collectible ones, not the ones in the packs), but then again, I never got into sports cards, etc. I get having them if you went to the event, etc., but not if your entire reason for going to the event was to get them, or you pay hundreds for them in the aftermarket. The Cloud City Boba Fett is the poster child for this. Why pay so much for a fig that is in nearly all ways inferior to the one you can pick up in a $20 set today? If Lego does ever have a bubble to pop, these things will be the canary in the mine.

Because the there are so few of the inferior ones availble... Supply vs demand, thus driving up the price of CC Boba. Then there is also the "story" asscoiated with him. That being that the set was a horrible failure, hardly sold and did no have a long run on the shelves.

You only pay hundreds in the aftermarket if you want him. If you do not want him or want something that is similar then you are only paying $20. Again, it all comes down to the needs of the individual. If you want him, you will do what you can to acquire him. Anyone who pretends to call themself a collector, a true collector knows there will be times that they are paying high prices for items. Opportunity knocks, you have to know when to take the chance as a collector. Otherwise you will be amongst the hoards of people and their constant b*tching!

vitreolum

Also exclusivity is something that appeals to people... and brings more prestige to the company, no matter if they don't get any money out of it.

BoiseState

Why collect any old Lego set then? They're all inferior to the newer ones.

tensor said:

I've never quite understood the aftermarket prices for the collectible minifigs (and I mean the really collectible ones, not the ones in the packs), but then again, I never got into sports cards, etc. I get having them if you went to the event, etc., but not if your entire reason for going to the event was to get them, or you pay hundreds for them in the aftermarket. The Cloud City Boba Fett is the poster child for this. Why pay so much for a fig that is in nearly all ways inferior to the one you can pick up in a $20 set today? If Lego does ever have a bubble to pop, these things will be the canary in the mine.

BrickDancer

vitreolum said:

Also exclusivity is something that appeals to people...

Oh so true, I'm the poster child for this mentality. That's why I love having the SDCC Superheroes in my collection. Heck even my car is exclusive (<900 in the USA). It makes me feel special and unique =)

cloaked7

Brick_Obsession said:

Again, it all comes down to the needs of the individual.

I pretty much agree, but it's not a 'need', it's a 'want'. Big difference. Unless, you maybe meant that a person 'needs' a figure to complete their set. But, even then it is still a want. They want to complete their set. That's one amazing aspect of LEGOS themselves. No one needs any of them.

TheLoneTensor

BoiseState said:

Why collect any old Lego set then? They're all inferior to the newer ones.

tensor said:

I've never quite understood the aftermarket prices for the collectible minifigs (and I mean the really collectible ones, not the ones in the packs), but then again, I never got into sports cards, etc. I get having them if you went to the event, etc., but not if your entire reason for going to the event was to get them, or you pay hundreds for them in the aftermarket. The Cloud City Boba Fett is the poster child for this. Why pay so much for a fig that is in nearly all ways inferior to the one you can pick up in a $20 set today? If Lego does ever have a bubble to pop, these things will be the canary in the mine.

This has more to do with perceived value as opposed to intrinsic value. Any set, old or otherwise, has both - perceived as in whatever someone will pay for it and intrinsic as in it still is plastic that can be utilized, played with, etc. These minifigs have an insane perceived/intrinsic ratio, not unlike a baseball card. If/when the market for such dries up, or the bubble bursts, you're left with a minifig.

As for your actual question, normal sets don't really come close into the realm of inflation that the con figs/sets do. Even #10179 if it eventually gets to $5000 is only 10x the rrp value. Boba here from cloud city, say he had an original value of $10 as part of the rrp of the set. Now he's at what, $600? That's a 60x increase. Still, the valuation is way different. If the market bottoms out, you still have a massive, usable Lego set with the MF, whereas with Boba Fett, not so much.

cloaked7

OK, you convinced me. I just ripped open the boxes of all my LEGO sets, took out the minifigs, and got rid of the bricks! Now, just sit back and watch the money roll in. The minis are a lot easier to ship and they take up a lot less space! A win-win. :-)

TheLoneTensor

^Yknow, that got me thinking, a good analysis would be to determine (in general) what a set's minifig value is compared to the rest of the set. I wonder what a good rule of thumb is. 25%? 40%?

samiam391

tensor said:

This has more to do with perceived value as opposed to intrinsic value. Any set, old or otherwise, has both - perceived as in whatever someone will pay for it and intrinsic as in it still is plastic that can be utilized, played with, etc. These minifigs have an insane perceived/intrinsic ratio, not unlike a baseball card. If/when the market for such dries up, or the bubble bursts, you're left with a minifig.

As for your actual question, normal sets don't really come close into the realm of inflation that the con figs/sets do. Even #10179 if it eventually gets to $5000 is only 10x the rrp value. Boba here from cloud city, say he had an original value of $10 as part of the rrp of the set. Now he's at what, $600? That's a 60x increase. Still, the valuation is way different. If the market bottoms out, you still have a massive, usable Lego set with the MF, whereas with Boba Fett, not so much.

Well, first off a quick correction. Boba Fett isn't $600 unless you are counting the set as a whole with him. Boba Fett Cloud City alone does fetch a price of $250-$300.

Certainly, you are 100% correct in your last statement. You do have a mountain of bricks compared to a small, single piece of plastic. However, if the market were to entirely drop out I think the main thing would be the sentimental value of the items. Quantity isn't everything. If the market would suddenly drop out of everything, sets and figures, I'd rather have my figures. It's all subjective, depending upon the person in question.

Now if you were a set re-seller like yourself, and had a bunch of minifigures that you didn't particularly care about except as a rapidly increasing investment, the difference is obvious and major. If the market dropped out you'd be very disappointed that you didn't have more sets as opposed to a bunch of figures that you no longer have any use for.

However, as a minifigure re-seller (I'll use that term very lightly for me), I would mind that my figures had lost their value. But again, if both sets and figures lost their value, I'd rather have my minifigures than a mountain of bricks. Call me insane, but again it's all subjective.

cloaked7 said:

OK, you convinced me. I just ripped open the boxes of all my LEGO sets, took out the minifigs, and got rid of the bricks! Now, just sit back and watch the money roll in. The minis are a lot easier to ship and they take up a lot less space! A win-win. :-)

This may have been a partially sarcastic and humorous post (which I did smile at :o) ), but it's actually entirely true. While I obviously wouldn't go and pull out my minfigures out of sets, as there is a very fine line between what will rocket in price and what will snail in price, I would agree with what you've said.

-They take up almost no space
-They, depending upon the figure, make very good long term investments (or even short term)
-They are easy to ship
-They appeal to a lot of people

Brick_Obsession said:

Anyone who pretends to call themself a collector, a true collector knows there will be times that they are paying high prices for items. Opportunity knocks, you have to know when to take the chance as a collector. Otherwise you will be amongst the hoards of people and their constant b*tching!

Couldn't have said it better myself. This is probably the most difficult with minifigure selling/collecting. We have such limited number of minifigures to deal with (which in turn makes them great investments), giving us limited windows.

For SDCC weekend, we literally have one week. One week to buy up stock, get good deals, and store. After the one week, the window has closed and prices already start shooting up.

You have to know when to strike at a price, what the meniscus is of the selling graduated cylinder. Bite early, you'll get burned. Bite to late, you'll get burned. Buy at the right time, you'll reap rewards.

vitreolum

tensor said:

^Yknow, that got me thinking, a good analysis would be to determine (in general) what a set's minifig value is compared to the rest of the set. I wonder what a good rule of thumb is. 25%? 40%?

You can't really generalize, it depends on the theme, character, availability, etc. City figs are pretty much worthless in general for example, and may be worth less than certain parts in the set.

BoiseState

It just depends.. The modular figs arent worth much compared to the bricks.. Then sets like Joker's Funhouse, you can sell the figs for the price of the entire set and get the bricks for free.

CCC

^ I agree, somewhere between 5% for modulars, maybe 20-40% for city sets depending on their size upto about 95% for some of the licensed sets, again depending on whether the set is minifig heavy or a ship or similar with a few figures.