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USA Today article on LEGO investing and Brickpicker.com

LEGO_HULKLEGO_HULK Member Posts: 20
edited December 2012 in Buying & Selling Topics
I was stuck at the office today and saw a front page article in the USA Money section on LEGO investing and the website www.brickpicker.com. Was very interesting and something how LEGO attracts people for different reasons. Doesn't look like they have the full article online yet, but there is a video. These guys have A LOT of LEGO :)
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Comments

  • sadowsk1sadowsk1 Member Posts: 124
    Interesting video. Thank you for the post.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Thanks for the link. A sure sign the end is near for above average returns in this market. I think two more years before the noobs find out which sets to stock up on and then it is time to gracefully exit and leave them holding the bag.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Yea, no kidding...

    I stopped at a few stores this morning, but not too many. The days of decent returns are over when LEGO investing and reselling ends up on the front page of USA Today.

    I mean really, do they need to hang a sign? :)

    Ahh, time to go find something else to buy and resell...
    Legoboyricho
  • crazycarlcrazycarl USAMember Posts: 392
    edited December 2012

    ^ Yea, no kidding...

    I stopped at a few stores this morning, but not too many. The days of decent returns are over when LEGO investing and reselling ends up on the front page of USA Today.

    I mean really, do they need to hang a sign? :)

    Ahh, time to go find something else to buy and resell...



    How bout gold and silver Ha? I for one am not a noob in this lego game but I also like the website that they created. Heck I joined and entered my collection. Turns out most of my old stuff, even with no box, is still quite valuable based on their site's research/calculations. I would still expect good returns on sealed collectable sets. Maybe not the astronomical returns some are used to fetching, but still decent returns. I also dont forsee a rash of new investors. Afterall we must remember, a set is only worth what some one will pay for it anyway.....
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Gold and Silver are commodities produced by many companies, the supply is not artificially controlled like the supply of LEGO sets is.

    So you really can't compare the two. :)

    I went through the baseball card, hot wheels, and beanie baby periods, this period of LEGO is no different. Once the returns go away, you'll see a ton of sets dumped on the market and you will be able to buy up 2-3 year old sets for RRP or less.

    There will be exceptions, but it is getting harder to pick those out. :)

    LEGO won't go away, demand overall won't go away, but as supply rises, there are just only so many people willing to pay 2x RRP for sets.
  • crazycarlcrazycarl USAMember Posts: 392
    edited December 2012

    ^ Gold and Silver are commodities produced by many companies, the supply is not artificially controlled like the supply of LEGO sets is.

    So you really can't compare the two

    Yes true, but depending when bought and sold the return rates are comparable!


    I went through the baseball card, hot wheels, and beanie baby periods, this period of LEGO is no different. Once the returns go away, you'll see a ton of sets dumped on the market and you will be able to buy up 2-3 year old sets for RRP or less.

    There will be exceptions, but it is getting harder to pick those out. :)

    LEGO won't go away, demand overall won't go away, but as supply rises, there are just only so many people willing to pay 2x RRP for sets.

    I for one as a player more than collector like this though! Anything older that I can add to my layout for less is welcome here!
  • Brick_ObsessionBrick_Obsession in a "Brick" house - Calgary, AlbertaMember Posts: 656
    I personally find not too much value in the site. I just see it as another place for someone who finds an old set in their closet and wants to sell it. They will see the pricing that others have posted and list for the same as they want to squeeze every ounce of juice out of the orange.

    If I read correctly they are basing their date from Ebay. I for one scoff at Ebay and the stupid pricing.

    You still have to know what to collect and what to sell. It's always going to be hit and miss. You cannot just go to a website and have it listed there for you. You have to listen to all the chatter, talk to people close to the scene and get the jump on those sets which will become limited and more valuable later on.
  • itsnotmeitsnotme Member Posts: 112
    This is really bad. To this point, I wasn't all that concerned about the speculation of a bubble or dramatic growth in the number of resellers. Fundamentally, I believed the amount of new resellers coming in were roughly offset by organic creation of new Lego fans. However, that depends on Lego reselling staying under the radar of the mainstream, and the people involved being actual fans of the product. Articles like this one will have the effect of bringing in non-Lego fans, people who care about the money but have no interest in the product. People who previously had no idea this market existed. That creates a lot more after market sellers but really no new after market buyers (unless new resellers are buying a lot of EOL sets rather than current sets, hoping for further appreciation). Granted, the Money section of USA today isn't the cover of Time, but a big deal nonetheless. Bad news.
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,359

    ^
    I went through the baseball card, hot wheels, and beanie baby periods, this period of LEGO is no different. Once the returns go away, you'll see a ton of sets dumped on the market and you will be able to buy up 2-3 year old sets for RRP or less.

    This is what I'm worried about. I'm trying to predict this point, because I know it is coming. The market is just being constantly flooded with inventory, that even the rarest and most desirable items may see a slight price drop.. when there are so many of a theme of an item, it does become impossible to "own them all", which is what most of collecting is all about. This will only be an exception for the deepestest pockets.

    Articles like USA Today's above, which I read and enjoyed, are showing that the time may be here sooner than we think/hope.

    (Sort of sounds like a mini apocalypse- good work Mayans)
  • Brick_ObsessionBrick_Obsession in a "Brick" house - Calgary, AlbertaMember Posts: 656
    ^

    More items will flood the market, but those people will just be greedy and seek the highest dollar value in return. Status quo in my opinion.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ True, there will remain pockets of demand and places to make money, but not in the broad sweeping ways as the past 2 years.

    The days of buying up 50% off inventory in stores and reselling in 1 year for profit are gone.

    Just look at this year's sales.

    Even sets that are 50% off, like City Bank Transfer, are not going to do well, way, way too many copies were purchased for 50% or less, those will be a slow climb. I stopped buy them before Christmas, leaving many on the shelf, for just that reason.

    Today, I could have stopped at another 20 Walmarts, but truth be told, what was left was scraps, and as nice as the Recycling Truck is, I don't see another Helicopter/Limo set there. It will do ok, but I don't see 3x climb in price in a year or two, I see it going for around RRP for a year.

    Time will tell. :) I could of course be flat wrong!
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,359

    ^

    More items will flood the market, but those people will just be greedy and seek the highest dollar value in return. Status quo in my opinion.

    There will be competition too though, as the number of investors and resellers increases (because of stupid articles like the USA today waving our secret around everywhere! ;-) )... competition to sell. With that competition, you will see prices drop for EOLed sets as sellers try to sell their items to a market that, I think, will become more focused with sets that are closer to their generation, as opposed to the 2000-2010 generation.

    A good example of seller competition would be minecraft. Selling at $125 a few days ago, I can get one from eBay for $75 now easy. That obviously goes along with demand (before/after Christmas), but is also hand in hand with seller competition to attain a dwindling market.

  • Brick_ObsessionBrick_Obsession in a "Brick" house - Calgary, AlbertaMember Posts: 656
    ^

    Always admired your disclaimer at the end of your thread responses ;-)

    True, a person may have to stop buying clearance stuff and stuff on sales.

    The art will be buying up the exclusives, and knowing which ones had the bad run (ie: Cloud City). Not everyone has the money to be throwing down on exclusives, especially bulk quantities.
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,359
    The exclusives are the key... The "big ones"...

    People won't be able to collect everything, since there will be so much, but they will want the "jewel" of the theme, which should keep its prices steady and at a nice, slow increase.
  • Brick_ObsessionBrick_Obsession in a "Brick" house - Calgary, AlbertaMember Posts: 656
    @Sam

    I do agree that there will be competition but through my travels I have found out that a lot of people are not too swift when it comes time to parting with their sets. They are holding onto them for the top dollar, not realizing that they can still part with them and make a profit. The other side to that coin is that they are trying the resellers market and bought the item high and have to sell high.

    I certainly do hope that this does loosen up the market somewhat so that people learn to barter more.

    I cannot count the times I have offered a "reasonable" offer to someone only to have them pass on it, and for me to then find it much cheaper elsewhere.

    Dougout
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,359
    edited December 2012
    ^I guess we will all find out in due time!

    Honestly, half the fun in all of this is not knowing what the future holds! (It's also half the anxiety too!)
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    Lego should be about the building aspect and when the bubble bursts it will open up the hobby to those who haven't been able to afford it.
  • crazycarlcrazycarl USAMember Posts: 392
    mathew said:

    Lego should be about the building aspect and when the bubble bursts it will open up the hobby to those who haven't been able to afford it.

    YES!!!!!!! Could not have said it better myself!

    Si_UKNZ
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    I'm sure recent resellers are now experiencing what veteran resellers have probably been feeling for the last few years...the squeeze is on!
    Kanohi
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    For most of the year, the hobby is perfectly open to anyone and sets are widely available at RRP or less. It's only during the holidays that hot sets become scarce and prices creep up for in-production sets that are just hard to find outside of the secondary market.

    Yes, Minecraft throws a wrench in that argument. But I would argue that was a special case. I think LEGO failed to anticipate the strong demand for the set and its crossover appeal. The quick run on the initial supply caused the price to spike, which brought in the non-LEGO crowd who likes to flip hot items to make a quick buck. Most of them will move on when they realize normal sets require waiting a couple of years to make a profit.

    Secondary market on retired sets is an entirely different matter. At the point something goes out of production, you are marketing to a different crowd: collectors. The people seeking out the EOL sets that have been gone for a couple of years are much different than the parent shopping for a kid.
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,977
    mathew said:

    Lego should be about the building aspect and when the bubble bursts it will open up the hobby to those who haven't been able to afford it.

    First, no. Lego doesn't mean it is about the building aspect. There are many other elements there. For some it is the pretend play, it is the story-telling, it is the building, it is the collecting, etc. There are many facets to Lego, which include more than just the building element. For some it means the joy of taking an area they enjoy and turning it into a side business.

    Second, The bubble being discussed, is the reselling bubble, right?

    I don't see retailed-price Legos going down anytime soon. If anything the cost of plastic has caused an increase in price. In addition, I don't see rhe after market Lego going down below it's retail price. I guess I am confused as to how any of this makes a difference to those that hAve Lego as a hobby.. If you mean to older sets that one hasn't been able to buy because of the cost, I am not sure that bubble will burst. In addition, there are many other sets that are retail, that one can find via sales, that one as a hobby can pursue.



  • Brick_ObsessionBrick_Obsession in a "Brick" house - Calgary, AlbertaMember Posts: 656
    I have been playing on the site and looking around. Really, nothing new that we all did not know. As for the pricing, well it's dodgey to say the least. It says it derives it's pricing from Ebay, yet you pull up some of the mini-figs and there is no pricing available for them. Good news for those who want SDCC mini-figs though, they are going for $44.00 *roles eyes*

    The reseller market will be around for a long time, for those of you who do it have nothing to be concerned about. It takes awhile to perfect the art of shipping and offering the right pricing. Fly by nighters will encounter all types of problems. The resellers I deal with pride themselves on customer service, they have great feedback and work with customers to resolve any issues. I have a feeling if the market floods with resellers the customer service is going in the crapper.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    mathew said:

    Lego should be about the building aspect and when the bubble bursts it will open up the hobby to those who haven't been able to afford it.

    I wouldn't quite go THAT far...

    You won't be seeing sets for 50% off all over the place, what you will see is a much slower climb from discount and RRP up.

    So instead of doubling your money in 1 year, it will be more like 25-50% in one year.

    Or perhaps EOL sets will hover around RRP longer. UCS Jedi Starfighter is a good example of this, everyone and their brother bought lots of copies when they were 40% off, now they are selling for around RRP, give or take 10%, but it will be a long time before that set is 2x RRP.

    LEGO is not a cheap hobby, nor will it become one. Part of the reason for all this demand is that people actually build and play with the sets, this won't be a crash like baseball cards, that was just resellers selling to resellers.

    This is actually a toy that gets consumed, a key difference.

    But the days of the huge returns are likely over, save a few exceptions.
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    The fact that LEGO gets used is a big deal. It's not like the days of baseball cards or early 90s comic books (shudder) where you have tens of thousands of over produced mint condition copies out there. The vast majority of LEGO that's get bought is opened and enjoyed.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,001
    edited December 2012
    I guess Buying and selling LEGO has 'jumped the shark' if you have newspapers talking about how much LEGO can be worth.. Also expect more people stealing LEGO from stores and doing the 'buy and switch' with the boxes.
    Truth be told. I think the LEGO market started going downhill about 2-3 years ago when people started catching on to Green Grocer.
    Kanohi
  • JT32JT32 BasingstokeMember Posts: 124
    It's an interesting debate but I can't see articles like this making a real difference to the reselling world, not oustide of genuine Lego fans anyway.

    It's not just a case of saying to a casual investor, go and buy 50 FB's and you'll double your money when they go EOL which is how it might be perceived by an outsider looking in. It takes a lot of effort trawling the internet and shops to find the best deals (a lot of which is enjoyable to a Lego fan), not to mention the hassle involved with storing and selling/shipping 50 FB's when the time comes.

    It looks easy but quite simply it isn't. Don't get me wrong I enjoy doing it on a very small scale because it gets me pretty much all the Lego sets I want but if I was a casual investor with no interest in Lego i'd leave it well alone. I am safe in the knowledge that if the market crashes then I'll be left with loads of cool Lego that I get to build and use for MOC's.

    timinchicagoDougoutbricknation
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,187
    Another concern, given how aggressive Lego seems to be opening new stores evrrywhere, is that if there is a crash when will we begin seeing Lego stores close. The stores are only there to support the widely popular Lego exclusives and onces those become unpopular...

    Another popular event that is running parallel with Lego success is Comic Con and everything that it brings. It seems every year the booth is more popular and they capitalize on their buzz.

    I have enjoyed the Lego renaissance since 2007 and hope sales (and resales) continue... at least until the Super Heroes line is exhausted and I can walk away happy.
  • itsnotmeitsnotme Member Posts: 112
    ^ Not sure I understand how an influx of resellers would negatively impact Lego stores. If there is a bubble it would be in the aftermarket, in which Lego itself does not participate. TLG's business is manufacturing and selling on-the-run sets, and as we all know they are doing extremely well.
  • JT32JT32 BasingstokeMember Posts: 124
    ^ Yep I agree. The reseller bubble bursts when Lego becomes even more popular and everybody who wants the sets buys them when they are available. Or when the EOL sets are just not desirable at an inflated price compared to the current sets.

    Which imo never happens and there will always be some sort of re-sell market, the question is how big/small will it be and will it be worthwhile to carry on.
  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 445
    And also remember those:

    -Uh-oh, cool! Lets resell some Lego and get rich quick!

    *Goes to store and buys 2 "Live" Stars and 3 Town Halls*

    *Realizes the truth and opens one DS and one TH for himself, sells the other TH and gifts a couple to family*

    End of the month.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,557
    edited December 2012
    The problem I have with it is not so much the number of resellers, it is more the background of the resellers. If they are in it for the money, rather than the product, then are they going to store the sets properly so the boxes don't bow and corners don't get bumped or sides scratched, not just piled up high in the garage / loft. Is MISB going to mean even less than it does now? An EOL set doesn't have a single value its value clearly depends on the condition. But lumping all copies of a set together like these tools do ignores the real condition - even if sellers think / say what they are selling is MISB.
    legoprods
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    I think the key thing to reselling is doing the quick flips. I did it a few times this season. I'm not making money, but it helps support the hobby.

    I would never want to get into buying large quantities of expensive sets and then sitting on them for years.
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,187
    itsnotme said:

    ^ Not sure I understand how an influx of resellers would negatively impact Lego stores. If there is a bubble it would be in the aftermarket, in which Lego itself does not participate. TLG's business is manufacturing and selling on-the-run sets, and as we all know they are doing extremely well.

    I am not saying that Lego is going to go out of business any time or that the B&M stores will. But if the stores are opened to cater to a market that is artificially increased by speculation then some stores will fail because the demand will go down when people realize the supply is high. The B&M stores are not necessary for Lego since they can manage sales online and through big box stores. They are nice to visit and provide a presence that can be reduced when the tide in demand shifts. I love my San Diego Lego store, but I only buy during their promos to get exclusives, which I sell on the aftermarket. Without the aftermarket, no reason to buy from Lego stores when they can be found cheaper online and elsewhere.
    Dougout
  • LegoPodcasterLegoPodcaster Member Posts: 115
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    First, I found out my favorite TV show, Leverage, has been canceled. Now USA Today wrote an open invitation to flood the aftermarket...

    No... NNNOOOOOOOO.....
    (cf Darth Vader, ROTJ blue ray)
  • LEGO_HULKLEGO_HULK Member Posts: 20
    It is amazing how sour some of you get over this. I actually feel bad about posting the thread, but I thought it would be of interest to people.

    CC, not sure how big or serious of a collector you are, but do you really need to call these guys "tools"?
    CCC said:

    But lumping all copies of a set together like these tools do ignores the real condition

    CCC
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,557
    LEGO_HULK said:


    CC, not sure how big or serious of a collector you are, but do you really need to call these guys "tools"?

    CCC said:

    But lumping all copies of a set together like these tools do ignores the real condition

    :-)

    I assume you know what I meant. But it works both ways!
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited December 2012
    ^ I am pretty sure the photo shoot for the article had a lot to do with lumping and stacking the sets like that. i.e. "Hey stack different kind of boxes there so we can get pictures of you with as many kinds of LEGOs as possible". For their volume, the background was most likely just their backoffice and not their actual storage facility.
    Yodalicious
  • Brick_ObsessionBrick_Obsession in a "Brick" house - Calgary, AlbertaMember Posts: 656
    At the end of the day, that site is just telling you what they think you should be paying for an item and letting you know the increase or decrease in value since MRP.

    There are faults with that site since it gathers it's information from Ebay, very unreliable in my opinion. Look at all the fraud that goes on there, those sets going for lower than MRP that get sold become part of the data and it skews the numbers.

    All it is a guideline as to what they think a set is valued at. They do not take into account the rarity of it, the availability of it, the limited run of it. They rely on the other sellers out there who set the price for it and just use the average cost of what that item sold for.

    It all comes down to how much money you have, most simple cannot afford to spend tens of thousands of dollars stacking up on sets they think will produce a great return at the end of the day.

    It's a site with fancy bar graphs, information derived from rival sites like Brickset and Ebay. It will go the way of the Do Do bird soon enough.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,557
    I haven't read the article, or ever used brickpicker. But from what I understand from looking at it before, don't you give them a list of sets you have. Thus, they hold data on what other collectors / resellers are stocking up on. Knowing that gives them some useful information.
  • itsnotmeitsnotme Member Posts: 112
    Schooley’s willingness to do this article seems questionable to me. I get that it’s good publicity for their website, but terrible publicity for the practice of reselling. When you’re making great returns on something, the last thing you want to do is tell the world about it.

    My question is, are they making much money from the website? Will the benefit of additional traffic generated by the article offset the risk of a flood of new resellers that it could create going forward? It might help the value of their existing inventory of EOL sets but jeopardizes the entire strategy in the future, in my opinion.
  • Brick_ObsessionBrick_Obsession in a "Brick" house - Calgary, AlbertaMember Posts: 656
    No, you pick your sets that you own. And I believe that information is derived from Brickset. They will assign value to your sets that you list as part of your collection from pricing gathered from Ebay.

    But we all know, just because there is a price valued against a set, does not mean you are going to get that price. Whether it be high or low, it all comes down to demand and who wants to pay what for it.
  • LEGO_HULKLEGO_HULK Member Posts: 20

    At the end of the day, that site is just telling you what they think you should be paying for an item and letting you know the increase or decrease in value since MRP.

    There are faults with that site since it gathers it's information from Ebay, very unreliable in my opinion. Look at all the fraud that goes on there, those sets going for lower than MRP that get sold become part of the data and it skews the numbers.

    All it is a guideline as to what they think a set is valued at. They do not take into account the rarity of it, the availability of it, the limited run of it. They rely on the other sellers out there who set the price for it and just use the average cost of what that item sold for.

    It all comes down to how much money you have, most simple cannot afford to spend tens of thousands of dollars stacking up on sets they think will produce a great return at the end of the day.

    It's a site with fancy bar graphs, information derived from rival sites like Brickset and Ebay. It will go the way of the Do Do bird soon enough.

    I truly disagree with your thoughts. Is eBay anymore unreliable than Bricklink or anywhere else. Unless you are selling thousands of sets and tracking it all on your own, then you have no information like anyone else so its good that there are sites like this and Bricklink to help show what people are paying for sets. You say it yourself, its a guideline. I don't think i see it stated there or on Bricklink that their numbers are pure fact. You say they rely on other sellers to get information, but isn't that the point. They are telling you that that is what people are paying for. Just like Bricklink data, we have no idea on whether the transaction ever made it through or was fraud.

    Not sure if you ever heard of Kelly Blue Book for cars. If you didn't that is a guide on what people pay for cars, etc. It's just a guide and has been around for ages. No one just pays exactly what that guide says either. You need to work your own deal in the end and be happy with what happens.

    I think you and CCC need to relax a little and just think that there may be people out there, including myself that might not know as much as you and like to look at data. It's only my opinion, just like you have yours.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    edited December 2012
    Part of me hates this, the other part is surprisingly optimistic. Hopefully this forum can go back to being about Legos instead of just reseller talk soon.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,919
    Those of us who love Lego and build for the love of it, have nothing to fear. I resell a little bit, and build sets every week with my family. If I have to wait a few extra years to sell my stuff, no problem.

    If money-hungry people come in, it'll take a couple years for them to figure out this isn't as easy as it looks. I think the impact is low from this article. Or non-AFOLs will get burned, and we'll see FB and GEs for under $200 for the next 3-4 years. But I doubt it.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    How many newcomers will this bring in only to realize a few months later that this isn't for them and dump their stock at a nice discount to a big reseller?
    Brick_Obsession
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,919
    ^That's what I'm talking about.

    I could see a lot of people keying on the DS from this article (and others like it). The sad thing is, these people (and some of us) will be left holding an expensive set for maybe years to come.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Those two idiots are going to regret doing this a year or two from now, assuming they can connect the dots.

    Unless of course they are already making money from the web site and no longer care about reselling.

    If USAToday called me, I would not call them back.
    Marc2501Brick_ObsessionBrickbasebricknation
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,919
    On your point LFT ... also for them to mention the UCS MF is very unfair. To dangle that type of profit like a carrot in front of new bunnies is uncalled for.

    Absolutely and totally unrealistic to compare that to any single Lego product available now to invest in. (Not the % of increase, but any sets hitting north of $2,000).
    Brick_Obsession
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,919
    I think it's funny that this article had no mention of Bricklink or the concept of "parting out" sets.
    madforLEGO
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