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I think in general this is going to hold true, but I think we may be able to take advantage of something that I've noticed happens a lot in the UK that we don't see at much in the US, which is heavy sales (in the 30% range) on large D2C sets. Those sets very rarely go on sale here, and generally top out around 10%. Very very rarely we'll see them at 20%. But it seems like I see major sales from UK retailers on those large sets fairly often. Assuming that prices stay the same (which, to be fair, is a big assumption like you point out, CCC), I think there are definitely going to be some opportunities for some savings on those sets, as long as we're able to get them shipped for reasonable prices. Once everything is said and done, we may only end up with like a 15% total discount, but there's still a good chance it may be better than any sale we would get on that set stateside ever.
That might also be good for getting discounts. If people don't have the disposable income to spend on LEGO, stores will have to discount in the short term.