What new 2011 sets will be valuable long-term?

ethanwa

What new 2011 sets will be valuable long-term? I'm assuming that all unopened sets of Pirates of the Caribbean will be, but I'm unsure about Cars 2 because of the lack of mini figures.

Thoughts?

mkoesel

The Creator Lighthouse is a good bet. And, of course, any Lego-exclusives are likely to increase in value after they retire. I'd also say the Technic Unimog will be a popular one for collecting later too.

mkoesel

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Si_UKNZ

Anything costing over £100

monkey_roo

I think it is a safe bet that most of the Star Wars and Harry Potter will do well. Not too sure about the Disney lines. Prince of Persia seemed short lived and Pirates may go the same way, Probably depends on whether there are more films etc. Oddly I think the Cars will do well, they look great and I for one will be buying some for my boy for when he is older (only 5 weeks right now so a little young) but as long as the films are popular the Lego should do well. Away from the film lines the obvious is the big exclusives like the Pet Shop once one of those has ended it's run with Lego they seem to triple in price on eBay.

wander099

^ I think POTC will do better than POP. POP was just videogames before the movie, but POTC has had 3 movies that did very well and a 4th coming out soon-it is much more mainstream and popular.

dmm32552

Diagon Alley without a doubt. First of all, it's a LEGO Shop exclusive. Second of all, it's expensive. Third of all, it's probably the best set in a very popular and long-running HP series.

pantenkind

medieval market villiage is another that is sure to go up in value.

bluemoose

I think the PotC sets will be slow-burners, but a good investment in the longer term. Do not underestimate the pulling-power of Johnny Depp ... my local LEGO Brand Store has a constant stream of women going through asking if the Johnny Depp/Jack Sparrow key rings have been released yet!

brickmatic

Some sets that are unpopular during their production run become hugely popular well after production has ceased. So something like Prince of Persia might surprisingly become valuable in several years. On the other hand, it might not. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

ParkGrades

My guesses:
7965 Millenium Falcon and 10221 Super Star Destroyer
10217 Diagon Alley
4195 Queen Anne's Revenge
I could see the 7985 City of Atlantis becoming valuable if Lego does not release any "Greek" or "Roman" themes in the near future.

Re: Prince of Persia, my kids really enjoy building and playing with those sets, so I'd say they're a decent long-term bet, especially the camel/ostrich/Alamut castle.

Si_UKNZ

I assume this is the list we're choosing from:
http://www.brickset.com/search/default.aspx?year=2011
In which case, the first 5 when you sort by price descending :)

super_curry_max

I think the only PotC set that will have value is Queen Annes Revenge because it is a nice looking pirate ship and people go crazy for those. The rest have been made in such bloated quantities that anyone who wants the sets or parts from the sets will be able to get them easily.

yys4u

Queen Annes revenge, Maersk Train, Mill Village Raid, The London Escape and of course the Pet Shop.

Just my expert opinion ;)

duilim

The Pet Shop - definitely. Has anyone seen how much both the Cafe Corner and Greengrocer sets are going for on Bricklink? What's the bet that the Grand Emporium will follow suit once it's discontinued....
On top of that, the Millennium Falcon might be a worthwhile investment, since the 2004 version fetched quite a fair bit on Ebay until this year, whilst Diagon Alley is a lock in terms of a price increase. With a lot of these sets, you just need to wait for them to go out of production - once that happens, the value is likely to more than double.

Rainstorm26

I don't think the Medival Market Village will be a huge value for a while. Look at the number of sets available on Bricklink. I would say there are too many available from a supply demand perspective. I could be wrong.

Si_UKNZ

^ Yes, definitely, and I think we might be surprised quite how many other sets the same is also true for. There's no such thing as a sure bet, especially if everyone else things the same.

madforLEGO

The Pet Shop - definitely. Has anyone seen how much both the Cafe Corner and Greengrocer sets are going for on Bricklink? What's the bet that the Grand Emporium will follow suit once it's discontinued....
On top of that, the Millennium Falcon might be a worthwhile investment, since the 2004 version fetched quite a fair bit on Ebay until this year, whilst Diagon Alley is a lock in terms of a price increase. With a lot of these sets, you just need to wait for them to go out of production - once that happens, the value is likely to more than double.

Yes and no.. BL is not an accurate indicator of prices.. eBay is a better indicator, but there are too many people trying to make a quick buck on eBay have noticed too and I think that will keep the later sets at a lower price for longer due to supply and demand (People apparently bought A LOT of Town Plan and the Green Grocer this time)
If I were to make it between the Pet Shop and Diagon Alley, since TRU is selling them it is only a matter of time before they throw those into another BOGO (Hopefully) before they sell out.
Now there is always the chance of Potter falling off of the map though in prices.. depends on if Lego keeps the line going.. If not then it is a crap shoot.. Will it be Potter of old (which kind of climbed in price over the years and only spiked when Lego reintroduced the line) or will it be Batman that has climbed ridiculously for a discon'd line...
So the nod may still go to the Pet shop, cause I doubt the town line is going anywhere...

Do not discount the new Harbor set either... At 90 bucks not many people may buy it (like the last) and those type of sets (and train sets) creep up in price (especially good if you get them on sale from TRU when they do city BOGO)...
A notable one is the Creator Tan Townhouse (I believe it was 4954) Those rose incredibly after being retired. I think because no one wanted to buy them due to pricing and they never seemed to go on sale... same with 10190 Market street.. No one wanted to pay 90 for them, now they have to pay around 400-500 for one (out of box!)

madforLEGO

I don't think the Medival Market Village will be a huge value for a while. Look at the number of sets available on Bricklink. I would say there are too many available from a supply demand perspective. I could be wrong.

That and the Village has been out long enough and I think most people feel that they will be worth something (as Si_Dorking_Surrey_UK noted)

I think at this time though too many people are thinking the same thing, and with this economy, they are looking for ways to make money and are listening to all of these idiots yammering on about how you can buy at garage sales and stuff at stores and sell on eBay so everyone is doing it.. so the worth on much of this is subjective... They may be worth something but I doubt you will see something meteorically rise like Batman line or the Cafe Corner or Market Street.. Maybe the sets that are super expensive like the Death Star or the upcoming Super Star Destroyer -The Grand Carousel pretty much doubled its price nearly in one month after it got discon'ed, and so did the SW UCS Falcon