The 'Magic' Ingredient: Why some sets sky rocket in value after EOL

atkinsar

What is the magic ingredient in certain sets that makes them sky rocket in value the minute they go out of production. I'm looking at you Batman and slightly more recently Town Plan. Has anyone managed to crack the code and been able to consistently predict those sets.

I'm thinking that the Indiana Jones sets are going to be the next Batman, they only produced 15 or 16 sets in the theme and a lot of them were high quality in my opinion.

rocao

IMO, it's a number of ingredients:

1) Rarity. Ultimately how many were made, and the following will limit general availability:
1a) Length of production run
1b) Exclusivity of the set (i.e. exclusive to a retailer)
1c) Price (higher price = less made)
2) Exclusive parts (almost always minifigs)
3) Popularity of theme
4) Quality of design
5) Discontinuation of license/theme

A set doesn't need to satisfy all the criteria, but a couple will be enough to make it one of the stratospheric aftermarket sets.

Yellowcastle

I would like to solve the puzzle....Tumbler!

bluemoose

The nature of these things is that as soon as someone 'solves' the problem it automagically resets to a different problem ... it's the human component of the problem that is the slipperiest to pin down.

Yellowcastle

Thus, Cloud City is worth a bazilion bucks.

rocao

Cloud City fit the following criteria:
1b) Lego exclusive: nowhere near the volume made and sold as common sets
1c) High price, particularly price to piece ratio, which further hurt original sales, IMO
2) Exclusive minifigs (duh)
3) Popularity of theme: Star Wars (duh, again)

Obviously people were collecting the minfigs then, as well, but it was nowhere as manic as the environment is today. Lego has defintely fueled the minifig craze by recognizing this phenomenon and starting to release exclusive minifigs with nearly every Star Wars set.

I should expand on the idea of "popularity of theme". In the case with licensed themes generally, and Star Wars, Batman specifically, you have a secondary group of collectors outside of Lego collectors that are adding to demand. I think this is less the case with Indiana Jones and other licensed themes.

Also, the length of time that Lego maintains a theme will help grow the fan base of that theme, and for fans coming late to a theme, there is a desire to collect retired sets. Unless Lego restarts Indiana Jones, I don't think it will ever reach the stratospheric levels of some other themes, but surely it will still be elevated.

atkinsar

I'm thinking/hoping that there is a good chance we may see Indy and Batman themes again to tie in with the respective new films being released over the coming years.

bluemoose

One of the issues with Batman was timing ... they pulled the last sets from the shelves just a few days before the LEGO Batman game was released (here in the UK anyway) ... the game generated a lot of interest in the toys, but they weren't readily available through the primary retail outlets, driving parents to eBay to get the sets, increasing demand & hence inflating prices.

Matthew

One of the issues with Batman was timing ... they pulled the last sets from the shelves just a few days before the LEGO Batman game was released (here in the UK anyway) ... the game generated a lot of interest in the toys, but they weren't readily available through the primary retail outlets, driving parents to eBay to get the sets, increasing demand & hence inflating prices.

Yes, Lego and TT (I'm assuming it was them) need to communicate about the games more. Like why not make some HP sets from the game instead of random ones? And why all the variations between game and physical minifigs? And where are the physical minifigs that were in the game?

2002

That's just what I want to know. Ironically, when the Batman sets were out they were always on sale and never seemed to sell. The town plan makes sense as a valuable set since it was
1. A civilian scene, not very common in the city theme anymore.
2. A decent set.
3. A LEGO 50 year anniversary exclusive.

FatMatt

^This is a mod/admin conversation only. No civilians allowed.

atkinsar

Blimey this is an old one, March 2011, this was pre-Beta days for the forum, there were only mods and admins in here!

Legoboy

^ Almost. Beta days. :-)

atkinsar

Pre beta, before the likes of you were invited even ;-)

Legoboy

Lol. I was in for March 2011 however. :-P

atkinsar

What, and you didn't comment on this thread, slacker!

Legoboy

Was just a wee timid scaredy cat back then. Took me all of a week or two to break out of my shell. "Those were the days", you say.

Yellowcastle

A blast from the past... :o)

TheLoneTensor

Here are what I consider to be the magic factors. Each of them can buoy up a set's value, but it's really about combining multiple factors to get a set to truly "skyrocket."

1) Aftermarket supply is low
By far the most important. I.e. how many are available. And this is mostly affected by something EOLing without much fanfare (Zombies), or simply going out of print without going on clearance first (Winter Bakery) or nobody realizing the true potential of a set while it was around (Winter Toy Shop).

2) It is globally popular
In other words, is the set's individual (or general) theme globally popular with the masses? Harry Potter, Monsters, Christmas sets, farm sets - these always seem to do well because people simply love them. I hesitate to include Star Wars simply because Lego SW is so damn diluted these days. For a Star Wars set to increase in value, it certainly can't rely on this factor alone.

3) It wasn't available forever
If a set has an overly long life span, especially if it has been discounted nicely and has some of the other magic factors in this list, then chances are people have gobbled them up for resale. Hello DS & FB! Note: Going against this particular factor won't necessarily prevent a set from increasing in value, but it likely will prevent it from skyrocketing.

4) The set is simply cool
This could be minifigs, parts, etc. but really, this alone won't get a set very far at all. Examples: PQ and Atlantis sets were very cool sets with fun playability and some of the best minifigs around, yet they languish because they didn't have any of the other factors in their favor.

5) It is part of a series
Being part of a series adds to the collectability, in that people gotta get em all. Sometimes this is a theme (Harry Potter), others an annual offering (Christmas sets, modulars) or other just a series (MBA). Also, the first in any series is likely the most desired because usually a series gets traction down the road, and by that time, the first in the series is no longer available.