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I really need to reread the book before the movie comes out! (Too bad I'm barely into book 3 of A Song of Fire and Ice--1000+ pages to go.) Of course, the Hobbit/LOTR LEGO sets are based on the movies, not the books, so we'll need to wait and see what is omitted from the movies.
I usually avoid speculation, but I'm pretty psyched for the LEGO sets, maybe even more than I am for the movies. Here are some thoughts:
Will they hit all the usual price points (USD $12.99, $19.99, $29.99, $39.99, $59.99, etc)? I think they could do 6-7 decent sets for the whole book, but making that many sets for half the book (one movie) will be tougher. Maybe they will fill the gaps with some more LOTR material. I think there's still a lot left on the table from LOTR.
My own wild guesses:
$12.99 Bilbo and Gollum riddling over the ring in a cave
$19.99 Dwarf and goblin/warg battle pack
$29.99 Troll attack (dwarves again)
$39.99 Misty Mountains (dwarves and goblins and Eagles?)
$59.99 Elrond's house (Rivendell)
$79.99 (or more) Bag End (Bilbo's house)
I hope we see a new warg piece that a goblin fig can ride on like a horse!
Will Bilbo appear in every set?
Will we need to collect all the sets to get the 13 dwarves? (Can you name them all? I could only remember seven without looking them up.)
By the time of the second movie, will we have all five armies for the Battle of Five Armies?
I want a female minifig in this line, since there is not one in the first wave.
My prediction is that the split between the two movies will happen somewhere around the Bilbo/Gollum interaction. This means the first movie should have five major acts; Bag's End Dwarf Party, Troll Battle, Rivendell, Goblin Capture, and Gollum's Cave. I kind of think Bag's End could be the "big set" because it would be an opportunity for as many as 16 minifigures.
Smaug is going to emerge as the chief antagonist in the second movie and I bet one "big set" there will be Smaug's cave.
The other "big set" for the second movie will probably be The Battle of The Five Armies. I predict it would contain an Erebor piece, some giant eagles, and a few minifigs. This would probably be augmented with some battle packs to build up the armies.
We will see what they do. Ultimately I wouldn't be surprised if the Hobbit franchise is more valuable to LEGO than the LotR franchise.
Prediction One: Bag End $79.99
Minifigures: Bilbo,Gandalf, Gloin,Thorin Oakenshield,Kili,Fili
Prediction Two: Smaug Attacks $19.99
Minifigures: Smaug the Dragon, Bard the Bowman
Prediction Three: Elrond's House 49.99
Minifigures: Elrond's, Bilbo, Elladan,Ellohir,Celebian
Having seen the dwarf character design in the trailers etc I'd love to see them recreated in lego form, but like the current fellowship, even if we did see them all, I'd guess they would be split into different sets, alongside multiple Bilbo's.
I'm picking up The Hobbit for my daughter to read today. If she does end up reading this, she is very quickly going to note there are not any of the female characters she would want, and be very frustrated that there isn't any.
I would think that in a second wave, that besides Hobbit that they might have more of the LotR sets as well. I can't see them 'just' doing scenes from the first movie and the Hobbit. If they do this, they could at a minimum find a way to add in either
Galadriel
Arwen
Eowyn
Tammy
For Beorn's Hall, I would like to see as a decent size building with an oversized Beorn in human form as well as him as a large bear, along with other bears and ponies, the surrounding gardens, hives and wall...ok, so maybe that's more of a layout than a set. The hall with large Beorn figures would be good.
Really, I just want Mirkwood for a collection of nice tree pieces in good quantities, but it would also easily allow for the inclusion on female Wood-elve minifigs.
Finally, The Lonely Mountain. I would like to see this as a nice large, UCS size set, including Smaug's treasure hall with the Arkenstone of Thrain among the treasure and weapons, the secret door high on the western slope with a tunnel leading down into the treasure hall, and the front gates with river flowing out; with the pool and dwarves' wall if it is to be the set for the Battle of Five Armies or only the river and Smaug if it is set earlier in the story.
Also, not really a set, but I think a trans-clear Bilbo minifig would also be great, to represent the times when he is wearing the ring and only casts a flickering shadow.
Arwen - Outside of the Frodo/Ringwraith chase, she really does nothing action-worthy to make it into a set. and that chase scene would be what? her and frodo on a horse, along with a couple wraiths? not much of a set there, it's just minifigs.
Galadriel - no action at all.
Eowyn - Best chance here - she could and should be included in a battle of Minas Tirith set.
so, if they were going to do a UCS Rivendell or something, then you could put in an Arwen. But assuming most sets are going to feature action, you really are left only with Eowyn as an option.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=10819936
I wonder what implications this would have on the longevity of the Lego theme...