How Covid-19 affects our hobby

Brickfan50

Denmark is closing it’s borders on March 14. 
What do you worry about - concerning our hobby?

KungFuKenny

Too much Corona and I have trouble reading the instruction manuals...

bpk2300

I was planning on making another trip to the Lego Store in Disney Springs in a couple of weeks. Other than that, if I am stuck at home for a period of time, I'll certainly build some sets that I haven't had time to get to!

SumoLego

KungFuKenny said:

Too much Corona and I have trouble reading the instruction manuals...

Corneavirus has the same effect.

SumoLego

I'm looking forward to doing some quarantine building.  (And I may get a headstart with some 'work from home' building.)

Keilup

I was wondering same thing past couple days.  My suspicion is that it may not have a direct effect, but a fairly sizeable indirect one. I'm feeling pretty confident that we'll be heading into an official recession pretty quickly that will probably take a while to climb out of.  Certainly in the U.S. and probably around the world.  What this means to me is a lot of struggling business, cost cuts, lost jobs, redefined business models, change in purchasing behavior, and ultimately less disposable income.  I mean, seriously, how long is it going to take people to even recoup their 401k/retirement losses?  So less disposable income means less buying on non-essential goods.  I was in Target today.  Eight straight aisles completely empty of necessities (yeah not TP to be seen).  Food shelves less than half full.  So no matter how essential Lego is to the enthusiast, I see a downward spend in general on Lego for the foreseeable future.

benbacardi

I'm assuming that at least the soonest Inside Tour dates will be cancelled, and possibly all of them? I really hope not, though.

Switchfoot55

Just because I'm unaware, are the borders closing for all foot traffic, but remaining open for commerce? The local travel bans that are going into effect here seem to limit incoming/outgoing movement of residents, but will allow for commerce to continue. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding even my local stuff. But, assuming the factories don't shut down, I would imagine there wouldn't be a production/shipping impact. If anything, the impact would be due to a lack of people buying products. 

Again, I might be all wrong on this?

Lordmoral

Well it definetly beats my plans to travel towards Legoland Florida this summer and may keep me from spending over $1000 on LEGO sets this May 4th.

Keilup

Switchfoot55 said:

The local travel bans that are going into effect here seem to limit incoming/outgoing movement of residents, but will allow for commerce to continue.

That is true.  But the reality is with basically all events and activities shut down.  The revenues are not generated.  Huge impact on many companies.  Restaurants won't see the traffic they normally see or expect from events (missed revenue from cancelled conference).  Think of all the lost revenues just from all the sporting events not happening and the trickle effect.  People not called into work.  Sure maybe some companies are going to pay people even though they don't work, but said companies are now not going to get the same revenue even if it's for only 4-6 weeks.  So thinking long term, less jobs, less money in People's pockets.  People's buying behaviors will change, at least until normal comes back again (whatever that might be).

Forgot to add in my post, that with all those bare or nearly bare aisles, the Lego aisle was fully stocked.  For anyone who gets squeezed because their income decreases, they're in a rough spot due to investments, worry of what the future holds, they will not be spending the same money on Lego they might have otherwise.  The money will need to go elsewhere.

Switchfoot55

Sorry, to clarify, I just meant that the roads would be open still for import/export. Certainly buying will be down across the board. And obviously there will be a trickle effect to that as well. 

KungFuKenny

Keilup said:

  So less disposable income means less buying on non-essential goods...

I'll have to break it to the family that in order to preserve the Lego budget we will be letting non-essential personnel go... hope the kids take it well

560Heliport

@KungFuKenny are you sure you know who's essential and who's non-essential?

SumoLego

560Heliport said:

@KungFuKenny are you sure you know who's essential and who's non-essential?

Aw, crap.  I'm going to have to lay low.

madforLEGO

LEGO Brick and pieces has now shutdown due to the Corona virus

560Heliport

^ Well, that's it; it's the end of civilization. 

CCC

I've bulk buyed LEGO so I should be fine. Not much loo roll or pasta in the cupboard though ...

Blockwork_Orange

I wonder if there will be some really good bargains on LEGO once this has largely moved through the system and retailers and companies are looking to reignite their sales.  

Interesting note on stockpiling LEGO:  The Canadian Prime Minister and his family are in self isolation after his wife tested positive for COVID-19 following an international trip.  During a press conference on Friday he commented that he is working from home and his kids are "doing LEGO" to keep busy.

klinton

Maybe SDCC will get cancelled and Lego will offer up those sweet con exclusives through the VIP program? :D

This whole thing seems to be blown way out of proportion though. Either there's just information we don't have, or everyone's wildly overreacting. Stock market dives and everything from restaurants to airlines talking about having to shutter their operations... it all seems out of proportion with any threat posed by the flu, no matter how contagious it is. I dunno.

SumoLego

Blockwork_Orange said:

During a press conference on Friday he commented that he is working from home and his kids are "doing LEGO" to keep busy.

Maybe there'll be a run LEGO?

SumoLego

klinton said:
...it all seems out of proportion with any threat posed by the flu...

Unfortunately, atleast in the US, the news cycle seems more focused on getting eyeballs and clicks, and not a measured response to what is actually happening.

The slow spread of a virus we don't really know the mortality rate, but that we're pretty sure is only potentially lethal for at-risk people - it's a boring news story because it takes time to scrutinize statistics, work on a vaccine and employ strategies to flatten out the transmission rate.

There is nothing less sexy than educating people that the real risk is overwhelming the healthcare system all at once.  Zzzzz...

Panic attracts eyeballs, so be prepared for ridiculousness until we get tired of it and go back to watching 'The Circle' and whatever the next bit of flashy nonsense emerges to take our attention.

It's not a coincidence that the 24/7 Coronapocalypse coverage started just about the time the US Democratic Primaries became very uninteresting.  Not to be glib, but the same inertia of news coverage happens after school shootings, church bombings, etc.  There's a feeling that this is the worst thing ever... until some other story takes our attention.

I'm sure if Tom Brady signs with the Los Angeles Chargers, suddenly Coronapocalypse will be less urgent.

560Heliport

Overreacting? I don't think so. There is a Minnesota patient in his thirties with no underlying health problems, yet he was in critical condition as of two days ago. 

SumoLego

The actual response to the virus isn't an overreaction - people hoarding toilet paper and clearing out their local Wal-Mart of wipes and cleaning product - definitely is.

Measured vigilance makes for boring headlines.  Disproportionate coverage of people acting like lunatics on Black Friday, it helps elevate a crisis.  

Modeltrainman

I bought from B&P a week ago, parts were in the warehouse, haven't shipped yet. For me, and others in that situation, what's that mean?

RogerKirk

I don't think it's an over reaction. A lot of people will die years earlier than they otherwise would have if the virus isn't contained. Unless we see interventions working in the UK, current rates of growth in new cases and deaths will see 100,000-150,000 positive cases by the end of the month* and around 1500-2000 deaths at the current UK death rate.

* this is assuming testing will also increase at the current rate, but the government have only promised to increase to 10,000 a day from 1500 (we're currently at about 3500 a day) - this means unless there are further increases, the testing system will be overwhelmed and very sick people in hospital won't even be able to get tested.

Given we're currently doing very little to stop transmission in the UK, I don't know how we can expect to see the growth rate for new cases falling any time soon to move us off this projection and in to a better scenario.

SumoLego

Agreed - it's one of those things were the mortality rate will decrease once the full breath of the number of infections is established.

But the total number of deaths will increase, even if at a smaller overall rate.  (My guess is that the mortality rate will be closer to the Korean number of 0.06%.)

Our municipality closed all of the schools and issued travel and social interaction restrictions.  My office wants everyone to work from home.

oldtodd33

Getting tested doesn't even matter given that there is no cure as of now. People need to calm down, wash their hands and avoid a lot of interaction with others for now. If we can stretch this out to this summer there will be fewer infections because of the warmer weather and we'll be closer to having a cure. 

The thing that worries me the most is Americans current consumption of guns and ammunition. There is currently a 3 day wait to pass a background check (usually 10 min) and ammunition is starting to get expensive and is harder to find. Especially 5.56 and 9mm, 

The_Rancor

I was enjoying Brickset without the BudLightVirus, but I guess it was going to have its own thread soon enough. My work is focused on digital and websites so fortunately it’s quite continuous in spite of markets, but i’ll need to work from home soon enough I expect.

I’ve got a fair amount of unbuilt sets and storage boxes/displays to sort at home, so the hobby won’t be affected too much in the short term here. Guess we’ll have to wait and see what that means for Spring and Summer releases.

madforLEGO

It is overblown for me. I believe the flu has killed far more people that Corona this year so far, and has done so like this for decades but yet we see life go on, nothing is cancelled (even though we have seen things like bad cold bugs AND the flu run rampant through groups for seemingly forever, but the games still go on, businesses stay open, and people do not postpone their lives when not buying stores out of poo paper). The irony during this whole thing being that flu cases have dropped due to people actually taking their welfare seriously now than years past.

While you will see all sort of people susceptible to this bug, it is from the same viral family as the common cold. So guess what? It can be nasty to those immune-comprised, the very young, and those who are elderly more than most. Anyone that gets a cold can also wind up in the hospital in serious condition as well (some people are just more susceptible to certain bugs than others, even those in 'good health', or there is an unknown complication --like people getting enough rest or not taking in enough fluids during their illness, leading to liver problems, among other issues). 

To me, what the media is not offering is perspective. I see far less of how many have it and go through the symptoms and are fine, vs the large maps screaming about how many have died? How many of these deaths are related to healthy people vs those who are high risk? How does those stats compare with known viral outbreaks like the common flu? While it is known how contagious it is (They report that spreading the flu is one sick=one getting it, wheras this Corono Virus is 1 person spreading to two people possibly), how is this different than the common cold? I see too many graphs about what state has a reported case Vs what states have fatalities. While I do not bash media much I do take exception to the panic that they are helping perpetuate here.

Many questions, but they are too worried about what mask to use, or how to try to stay away from getting it. It is a virus, it is now in the environment and it is reported that even in a great scenario, it will take 18 months to get a vaccine (and that of course is if it does not mutate like the common cold does).

IMO All of these shutdowns do is just delay building up an herd immunity to the bug. Of course the Elderly and those high risk should avoid going out if possible and large crowds, but I think for everyone else it is just be vigilant and keep your hands clean, and don't touch your face as much (If it sounds familiar it is because that is what they say to avoid the flu as well).

Is this nasty? Yes, is it a 'pandemic'? By definition yes, but the flu has been around far longer and has killed far more than Corona has (or maybe every will) but yet we live with the Flu bug and its 'season' without freaking out and losing our #$%^

klinton

oldtodd33 said:

Getting tested doesn't even matter given that there is no cure as of now. People need to calm down, wash their hands and avoid a lot of interaction with others for now. If we can stretch this out to this summer there will be fewer infections because of the warmer weather and we'll be closer to having a cure.

More or less this. Just be mindful of your interactions. Don't touch other people and as few surfaces as possible. In all honesty, the only health issue I've encountered is the cracked skin on my hands from washing them constantly and rubbing them with sanitizer every time I touch something.

There's responsible diligence, and then there's full on lunacy.

560Heliport

The point of the shutdowns and restrictions is to slow down the spread of coronavirus so that the health system can treat people who need it. We can't just all get the virus to build up "herd immunity": the healthcare system would be utterly overwhelmed.

SumoLego

560Heliport said:

The point of the shutdowns and restrictions is to slow down the spread of coronavirus so that the health system can treat people who need it. We can't just all get the virus to build up "herd immunity": the healthcare system would be utterly overwhelmed.

This is true - Herd Immunity really applies to long-term prevention and minimizing future infections of non-immune individuals.  It is not a particularly comforting strategy for a 'new' virus - because those susceptible to the virus have little protection.

Plenty of people will get sick until there are sufficient people immune to break the chains of infection. 

Thus, atleast in the US, the virus will spread at a slower rate, and hopefully only among those best able to fight off the virus.  (Which will avoid overwhelming the HC system, build up immunity and provide extra time for widespread testing.)

KungFuKenny

I don’t think we know if “herd immunity” comes into play in a situation like this... Although immunity is a relative term- if this virus ends up more like flu, then there will be different strains to watch for and vaccinate for yearly... if it is more like SARS and MERS (which I’m betting on) then it will not be a perennial problem.  If we had kept up work on the SARS vaccine after that outbreak died down we would be a lot further along in researching a vaccine for COVID...

For my part I’m doing my best to avoid Corona and will be sticking to Maker’s Mark for the time being...

560Heliport

^ and time to learn more about the virus, like the incubation period, how long does it survive in air, on surfaces, etc. These things need to be known more precisely than they are now. And there could well be other factors we just don't yet know.

SumoLego

Maybe it enjoys long walks on the beach, Picasso's Blue Period, the Jazz Flute and Banana Smoothies.

KungFuKenny

SumoLego said:

Maybe it enjoys long walks on the beach, Picasso's Blue Period, the Jazz Flute and Banana Smoothies..

and likes Pina Coladas, getting caught in the rain, and not into yoga, but has half a brain... wait...

Russell844

I had to cancel my RLUG"s March and April meetings and we are discussing what to do about May and June.

Modeltrainman

Is anybody else Lysol'ing off boxes before opening? I technically have a compromised immune system, so am I being cautious or crazy?

Pumpkin_3CK5

madforLEGO said:

LEGO Brick and pieces has now shutdown due to the Corona virus

Modeltrainman said:

I bought from B&P a week ago, parts were in the warehouse, haven't shipped yet. For me, and others in that situation, what's that mean?

 Hopefully it means they're just not accepting new orders.

SumoLego

Modeltrainman said:

Is anybody else Lysol'ing off boxes before opening?

I'd be Lysoling the person handing me the box.  As I recall, the virus doesn't have an unusually long survival time on cardboard.  (Something like 24 hours - so unless you bought the set yesterday, you're probably safe.)

560Heliport

If you have a compromised immune system, then go with cautious! I've heard 24 hours on cardboard, about 3 days on hard surfaces. I'm just guessing, but maybe the cardboard sucks the moisture out of the virus? If so, would the glossy printing on LEGO boxes let the virus survive a little longer? Play it safe!

Modeltrainman

Thanks everybody, I am!
Washing my hands thoroughly, always!

Brickchap

The Australian government as always is doing bugger all. Un-Australian pricks. Real Australians pitch in and help their mates...

Instead the Victorian health minister decides to unnecessarily ridicule a doctor for transmitting the virus. Heres a thought when in a crisis dont blame the frontline fighters even if they make mistakes. A leaders job is to reassure the people and inspire confidence like FDR or Winston Churchill.

The health ministers comments remind me of that scene from Downfall...so it appears Victoria has a Hitler in charge of health when they need a Menzies...great. Oh, and while the government is whinging about doctors spreading the virus, the in-bred potato caught it and has spread it throughout parliament so.....

As for overreacting; People assaulting other people over toilet paper is overreacting. If the Chinese government was shooting people with symptoms that would be overreacting. Australia closing its borders is NOT overreacting, it should have been done weeks ago! Plus closing that silly football game that Scott Morrison is so intent on attending should NOT go ahead. As the papers said, apparently a gathering of 500 people is perfectly fine but 600 is dangerous...

As for Lego, well, if Australia goes into lock-down I'll get time to build the Bookshop and Steamboat Willie which will be nice. As for shop supply, Australia usually misses out anyway so I hardly think we'll notice..

vizzitor

Please can I recommend that no one use any form of social media to get their information about what to do or not to do during this pandemic. Despite the great community on Brickset, this forum is still a form of social media with no way to confirm the expertise of the person providing the information and what is correct without an external source.

I'm not going to say where exactly anyone should get the most up to date recommendations since that would go against everything I just typed.

Anyway, I don't really post here all that often and especially not about any current events so I hope this doesn't offend anyone. That's not my goal, I just want to make sure everyone can just ride out the restrictions and enjoy building without worrying about how all of this will affect their own or other people's health.

Back on topic, my LUG has cancelled their meeting scheduled next Saturday. It's usually in a pub and they are now under pressure to close so I think it will be under lock and key by then too.
I've also avoided my usual weekend Lego shop perusal and am just staying at home sorting instead. So I'm saving money and getting on top of my parts...a bit.

vanvonfull

^what vizzitor said, thank you. 

I was worrying how to say that because it was amounting to “take my advice: don’t take advice from a thread like this on the internet.”  

But its true. Maybe listen to a health expert or a nonprofit health organization, perhaps one that can’t be swayed by the politics of one country. 

& to sway back on topic, the virus has resulted in a lot of building time for me. If I run out of sets I’ll go rebuild some old UCS that I have in storage. 

SparkyHam

I promised myself I'd only open it in exceptional circumstances: the kids and I are going to make a start on building Lego Ninjago City today! If we ration out the bags, I'm hoping it will last a good 2-3 weeks during our self-isolation.

Lordmoral

Now that I think about it, now may be as good a time as ever to assemble IDEAS Old Fishing Store and Ninjago City only to dismantle them later on.....

SumoLego

vizzitor said:

Despite the great community on Brickset, this forum is still a form of social media with no way to confirm the expertise of the person providing the information and what is correct without an external source.

Definitely - the best information is from the CDC or from your local municipality.  There's a fair amount of hysteria out there, and I think people are eager to pass along any information.  (And even the best intentions can still result in incorrect info being propagated.)

Locally, our County put out a series of press releases because a State infection figure had the wrong number.  (2 instead of 1 - and people went a little bonkers.)

GrannyLEGO

One of the things few are talking about is the economic impact especially on areas like here in St Augustine Florida which is heavily dependent on tourism. I am a high risk (elderly with underlying issues) but already not out and about much, doing less so now. My LEGO building will increase of course!

GrannyLEGO

Ooops, posted that before I was done. I usually go monthly to the LEGO store up in Jacksonville and have canceled it for March. We will see about April when it gets here.

madforLEGO

Pumpkin_3CK5 said:

madforLEGO said:

LEGO Brick and pieces has now shutdown due to the Corona virus

Modeltrainman said:

I bought from B&P a week ago, parts were in the warehouse, haven't shipped yet. For me, and others in that situation, what's that mean?

 Hopefully it means they're just not accepting new orders.

I believe it is not accepting new orders, I would be surprised if they held existing orders as pending, but you never. As always, call LEGO CS if you have questions.

I thought someone noted this in this thread (maybe it was another) but wondering how the stores are handling this, if they are blocking off the play areas, as well as PaB and BaM bars... I was going to go to the LEGO store near me but, feeling under the weather myself, I decided it would be best to do the responsible thing and not go out if I do not have to (even though it feels only like a sinus infection).