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BOX OF 'PLAY SETS' FOR HIM TO OPEN WHEN HE'S TEN
(these are all sets which I dont have an opened copy of, so theyre definitely for _him_! Ive chosen them for their play value, and reckon they might all be of interest to a ten year old, in different ways)
- City transport 8404 .. £60
- City Police station £50
- Creator Hillside House .. £45
- Creator Sonic Boom .. £35
- Superheroes batcave .. £50
- Trains Maersk .. £90
- Trains Red Passenger train £70
- Harry Potter Diagon Alley .. £100
- Harry Potter Hogwarts Castle #4 .. £70
- Harry Potter Hogwarts Extension .. £35
- Pirates Whitecap Bay £45
- Pirates Imperial Flagship .. £145
- Star Wars Millenium Falcon .. £90
- Technics Excavator .. £100
- Gear Brick Calendar .. £10
====TOTAL = £1000 ====
BOX OF INVESTMENT SETS FOR INVESTMENT ONLY, TO SELL IN 2020
(to sell only, mostly duplicates of opened sets)
- Tower Bridge .. £130
- EN .. £70
- Modular Grand Emporium .. £110
- Modular Fire Brigade .. £100
- Architecture Farnsworth house .. £35
- Architecture Falling Water .. £65
- Kingdoms Kings Castle .. £65
- Kingdoms MMV .. £70
- Kingdoms MVR .. £50
- Star Wars Imperial Shuttle .. £165
- VW Camper .. £80
- WV Toy Shop .. £30
- City of Atlantis £25
====TOTAL = £1000 ====
It seems the cheapest place to buy for me is from european sellers from bricklink as the prices in Estonia are same or higher than in finnland.
Could anyone recommend any other places to buy from europe or is bricklink good enough?
Also any recomendations on witch sets to buy are welcome.
- death star for sure
- imperial shuttle for sure
And these I dont know so much about, but id say
- new MF
- new X-wing
- new imperial fighter thing
- republic freighter if you can get it
- forthcoming jabbas palace
- battle of endor if you can get it
That should probably get you close to €1000 :)
I was also thinking imperial shuttle, MF for sure and maybe even 2 death stars (1 to open and build my self)
Endor and also X-wing seem attractive
Also Anakin's & Sebulba's Podracers seem quite interesting.
Before I start buying it would be nice to get some info about bricklink and how safe it is to buy from there.
does it seem to be something that would gain value over time?
@LegobrandonCP Gotta love big brother watching out for us ;)
So someone else here is doing what I'm doing... :)
I've got 18 of them so far, with the goal of ending up with 40 of them by the time it retires. Even if it only does half as well as GG, it will be just fine... Better place for $6K than the stock market... :)
With all the sales and deals that keep popping up I'd rather be in a better position to take advantage here and there. Last year I stocked up big time on DS's, IF's and even PotC Ships (knowing how in past years they have run out of hot items during the holidays) and then they had the big sales and were overflowing with stock on the ships.
I normally just buy licensed big sets and exclusives as they are normally the best investments and don't want to waste my time on lower return items but I just went crazy with all the Target and Walmart stuff -- just got sucked into all the hype hear. And its not so much the funds as much as it all the space they take up!!!
I am actually renting storage for them, they far exceeded the space in my house...
Will I come out ahead in the end? Maybe... Will I do as much next year? No way...
The cheap stuff is not worth the space and time unless you do this for a living, and I don't... (yea, believe it or not, this is a side hobby, all 2,000+ sets worth!)
Especially because I was cursing the hell out of the person who bought ALL of the Target LEGO clearance a few weeks ago at one store. And then had the nerve to ask the store to hold it for him/her for the rest of the day.
A whole cart piled high with 50% off boxes waiting at the customer service that I wasn't allowed to buy. That was painful.
Going to go check out storage options today. At least I can loose the Pod in exchange, can't discount the wife factor here either ;)
@littletoki wow, can't believe they would hold the clearance stuff -- especially given the fact that I had a Target manager "limit" me!
1) You find a good deal
2) They are about to be discontinued
Do not sit on them for 10 years! Sell and reinvest! I'd say you're most likely going to hit a steep profit point at around 3-5 years. This means that you're going to see the highest rate of profit during the 3-5 years after the set is discontinued. Sure, the value could go up even more after 10 years, but not at the same rate of the first 3-5 years. Sell those sets after 3-5 years, repeat steps 1 and 2 with your earnings, and then sit on them again.
I'd like to also add to not limit yourself to $1,000 over the next couple years. If you've spent your $1,000 in a year and in two years you see a deal on a soon to be discontinued item, then buy it! This will save you on regret 5 years down the road.
To those who say to invest in something else, I have to disagree for the time being. I've done stocks, cds, real estate, etc. I've made the most in real estate, but as everyone knows, those days are gone. The goal today is no risk. You put your money in gold pretty much until we see things change. A CD today will net you a 1.5% return. LOL!!! You go put that money in Legos and I can assure you will see a better return.
Remember too, try to sell locally at your price point before going to ebay. You just need patience, but it's better than losing 12% of your sale to ebay/paypal fees. By the way, you can always list on Amazon and they'll take roughly 7%, plus it can just sit as a listing without you paying any insertion fees.
Have fun. Awesome topic! BTW, to all the experts out there, which is a better ROI, MMV or HP DA?
^^ Hell yeah, where?
^^^ Yes, I do a lot of short term investment as well.
This brings me onto the BIG question.
Do you think that buying and storing Lego sets MISB to resell in the future (e.g. over a 5 year cycle) will outperform the stock market?
I believe the risk in buying Lego for resale, is far lower than risking your hard earned cash on stocks and shares, plus it should provide you with a good tax free return on investment.
On the other hand, for whatever unfairness is built into the stock market, it at least is a playing field that is well watched and researched, and you can get in and out with the click of a mouse. A warehouse full of Lego is hard to liquidate quickly for "market value".
Plus, the supply of Lego is completely and totally controlled by a private company that can do whatever it wants. You're putting a lot of trust into that company's hands if you go all in...
Given that a few people might have hoarded 3 or 4 of a particular set in the past or perhaps a few more if they found a bargain I believe this recent move to hoard in quantity, especially the higher value sets, will distort the aftermarket for LEGO resulting in prices being held down to retail or near retail for a long time after end of retail sale. I don't doubt there will be some odd sets that rise in value significantly - but I fear they will be the very ones we don't identify as potential investment material and hence do not get hoarded in quantity resulting in scarcity that drives the price up.
The only thing that will offset this move to hoard is a massive influx of new AFOLs that decide they want to collect sets that are no longer available and willing to buy from eBay and BrickLink* as against new AFOLs that are happy to just pick up sets in retail outlets or from the usual online toy retailers.
Although not as well researched as stocks and shares LEGO is probably a more 'perfect' market and you really are gambling on the supply and demand balance as against the global economic situation which seems to drive the stock markets more that company performance these days.
For the record I do have a handful of sets put aside for investment and I intend to add a few more over the next 12 months but I do not own more than 2 of each set and if they turn out not to rise significantly they will still have play value for my child (and I ;-) ) and I won't be unduly concerned.
*re BrickLink - a modernised, easy to use and transparent (think eBay from a buyers perspective) version of BrickLink would probably do more to help the aftermarket values than anything else I can think of!
Stocks & Shares in my view are an investment that is best done individually and if you genuinely know the company well. Many people advocate Unit trusts, investment trusts, OEICs that will invest in baskets of shares/guilts/bonds etc, but in this instance you are putting your faith in market sentiment and the skill of the fund manager. Anybody who invested in a market tracker back at the beginning of 2008 at the top of the market would still probably be sitting on a paper loss today.
In general, a balanced investment portfolio is best, more heavily weighted towards cash at the moment. If you're young, it's good if you can have a slightly higher risk appetite. Emerging markets etc (do your own research!)
Personally I wouldn't see Lego as an investment for most people here unless they are serious business sellers that have 'stock'. Most investments you can liquidate immediately, and the ones you can't, say fixed term bonds, will have 100% capital protection. As LFT says, Lego as an investment is in the hands of the actual company and their policies on end of lining and re-issuing sets. That's risky in itself.
My strong suspicion is that most people here like to think about their collection having a 'value', but in reality they will never liquidate the vast majority of it as they love the product, and therefore it's a personal collection, not an investment.
Yes there are bound to be more speculators in the short term drawn in by seeing UCF Falcon prices etc, but they will come and go when the next perceived big thing comes along, especially when secondary market prices struggle, something they are likely to do where there is over supply (coming soon for some recent sets?)
As a final point, I can guarantee you that you could speak to 100 financial advisors and not one of them would mention Lego. lol!
But I did just notice your update from Feb 2. I think it's okay to have your general guideline of selling the sets in X years, but I would advise that you revisit the market for the sets at least yearly given that you've decided upon an end date of 8 years, which is quite long. A lot can happen in 8 years and you may find that even subtle shifts present a selling opportunity sooner whether it be from good fortune (i.e. spike in renewed interest) or calamity (i.e. impending re-release of a set).
Even if there are no new books or anything else coming out, kids will still read Harry Potter 10 or 20 years from now. Parents who read the books in the late ninties-early 2000s when they were originally released out will give them to their own children when they will be of that age, that is 10-15 years from now.
With the Harry Potter line discontinued, there is no danger that LEGO will improve on existing sets (unless they restart the line). With Star Wars you can never know if a bigger or better Death Star will not come out 4-5-6 years from now. And while it is unlikely that, for example, another Tower Bridge will be produced, there will be many similar big sets of architectural landmarks that that particular set will have to compete with.
In a more general sense I agree with one of the previous posters that you can probably maximise your return buy not sitting on your stock for 10 years or more but by selling off everything after 2-3-4 years. The UCS Millenium Falcon sells now for 2-3 times its original value, but somehow I doubt that it will keep appreciating at the same for years to come. Somewhere there is an upper ceiling to the price, regardless of how rare the item is. Who in 10 years will pay 5 or even 10 thousand dollar/euro in 10 years from now for it?
Back to my question. Were the Batman 1 sets back then were offered on clearance and sales like the sets we have been seeing on such amazing sales in physical stores and online stores? Because I really don't think so as I have been on constant watch for this theme ever since just because I wanted to buy more and I never found out about them being offered on sale or clearance and my thinking was the LEGO just retired the sets earlier then the 2 year time and prices went very high.
I have to agree somewhat with @Cam_n_Stu and also with @richo. But I also feel and have seen that demands can be generated. And global economics were a lot better then nowadays. I know I am very new to see this trend to see stores selling stuff for 50% off or more even, and sets still being seen on shelves for longer periods of time.
What? Did no one think that printing a few trillion dollars over the past few years would have no effect on anything? Why does everyone think the price of oil is going up? Because of the Middle East tensions? Don't be silly, supply and demand... Saudi Arabia's oil storage tanks are bursting at the seams full, Iran just cut off most of Europe from oil deliveries and no one cared...
There is tons and tons of oil in the world, and guess what? It is all priced in dollars, so as those dollars become worth less from all the printing, the price goes up.
But you won't see that harped on in the news, because the powers that be don't want anyone to notice. Printing money is a hidden tax, because it reduces the value of the dollars you currently hold, without having to actual take any of them from you.
As for the price of Lego, I have a hard time believing that the price of plastic is the reason for the increase... Plastic is just not that expensive, the marketing, shipping, automated molding machines, labor to run everything, and of course making it all in Denmark, is why it is so expensive... I suspect Lego's quality control costs more than the physical plastic does. (the cost to make sure all those little bricks are produced perfectly, over and over and over again...)
Comparitively, I feel much better at the end of my day knowing Lego paid for my Applied Mathematics phd, rather than Real Estate, Gold, or Stocks.
Always give back to charity. Do it because you like too, because you feel good about it, not for a tax write off.
I'm active in the XBOX forums and the couple of hundred people who post on there think that they are the only ones playing the video games, meanwhile companies like EA and Activision sell tens of millions of copies to the non-forum player. Take a look at this site for example. Daily, it has thousands of page views and has a yearly total in the millions, yet there are a couple of hundred forum posters. Somebody else must be looking through Brickset. Just my 2 cents...
Normally I buy all my games on Steam, but EA doesn't like Valve right now, oh well...