Please use our links: LEGO.com • Amazon
Brickset.com is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, the Amazon.com.ca, Inc. Associates Program and the Amazon EU Associates Programme, which are affiliate advertising programs designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.
As an Amazon Associate we earn from qualifying purchases.
This time I shall go for 1,313,562
thanks for hosting, I should host one of these as this is the third time I’ve remembered to take part!
@snowhitie when is your next free slot?
Cheers, I take it we have till the 11th of April 2019 ;) to join this competition.
@alldarker Please feel free to share your analysis again of people's guesses of my LEGO House combo number. Your analysis of November's bonusball was highly informative AND entertaining!
Reading posts like yours just increase me desire to head to Billund soon...
So I decided to take this way too seriously and maximise my chances of winning. As a result, my number is 618,440,955 which currently gives me a 2.94% chance of winning (versus what would have been an average 1.20% chance of winning with 83 people playing).
Of course, not everyone has a 1.20% of chance of winning. For example, poor old @redarmy with his choice of “1” only has a 0.0000003% chance of winning, or 1 in 305,034,585. If he’s planning on beating these odds someday, I hope it isn’t today and is instead on a day he plays the lottery or decides to be involved in a plane crash.
I also thought it would be interesting to create a chart of the number choice distribution just to see how bad humans are at choosing random numbers. Not only were 36 of the 83 numbers chosen under 100 million (despite having over 915 million numbers to choose from), but half of those (18) were under 1 million (although I’m well aware that some of these were joke guesses). The results still demonstrate why it’s always best to choose random numbers for a lottery, because in the very unlikely event you should win, the chances of having to share the prize with someone else are minimised.
Oh, and for the record, the next best number to choose now is 398,855,563 if anyone wants it. Or you could just do one more or less than my guess and reduce the chance of me winning by 50% just to annoy me 😊.
Oh… and thanks to @stlux for hosting.
Thanks for hosting @stlux.
That suggests that it would be 'quite different' from the others and I think this is why many chose a low number.
My number choice was quite deliberate. Anyone care to venture the reason as to why I chose that specific number?
All in all we had 87 entry's. Just like last time, a huge amount of entries (37: 42.5%) were in the bracket 1-100,000,000. I have no idea why, but it's perhaps not the wisest choice, given the amount of possible combinations/numbers. Personally, I always wait with presenting the analysis so as not to interfere with people's guesses, but as @brainslugged already showed, there's a definite fear of high numbers. Distribution didn't change much with the last couple of entries.
Brainslugged's entry was the most statistically rational: a very late entry, based on 83 other people's guesses, and choosing the number in the middle of the largest available range of non-chosen entries. However, he doesn't have the highest chance of winning: there's three people with a >4% chance of winning, with @BrickByBrick having a chance of 4.8236% of being nearest stlux's combination-number.
Now off to take a picture of my card and announce the winner!