A LEGO House special Bonusball Edition - 11 April 2019 deadline

TheOriginalSimonB

Yay, nice one.  Thanks again for another house-related draw @stlux

This time I shall go for 1,313,562

oldtodd33

  500,000,001        Thanks for hosting!

DeMontes

67,700
thanks for hosting, I should host one of these as this is the third time I’ve remembered to take part!
@snowhitie when is your next free slot?

diddypi

591,503,765

ravendragonwing

13,198,250

Jern92

906,734,103

msanders

87,678,354

Covi

313,727,151

Legolis

20400

CCC

432360127

pookie

972220

alldarker

Cool, I like these, as there's a definite science to picking a number. Mine will be 369,473,084

CommanderRaab

485,103,765

thanks

khopewosin

532,160,128

Thanks @stlux

Switchfoot55

Thanks for hosting again!

348,928,217

pxchris

Thanks for hosting @stlux!

717,171,777

cleverusername

186,371,400

Cyberdragon

42,420,442

dmcc0

123456

theLEGOman

333,333,333

Cheers, I take it we have till the 11th of April 2019 ;) to join this competition.

snowhitie

Always a good one to do, thanks @stlux.

I'll go for 919353.

@DeMontes thanks for the offer for hosting, I'll send you a PM!

sirrich69

49,428,092 thanks @stlux

Matt89190

372,492,109

Leandro16

86,616,238

piratemania7

265,380

brickventures

88,888,888 ~ thanks @stlux. 

stlux

@Bobflip @theLEGOman Yes, 2019, not 2018. The perils of copy/paste!

@alldarker Please feel free to share your analysis again of people's guesses of my LEGO House combo number. Your analysis of November's bonusball was highly informative AND entertaining!

alldarker

stlux said:

@Bobflip @theLEGOman Yes, 2019, not 2018. The perils of copy/paste!

@alldarker Please feel free to share your analysis again of people's guesses of my LEGO House combo number. Your analysis of November's bonusball was highly informative AND entertaining!

I'm already on it @stlux :) Updating as I'm posting this 

lord_relish

You got combination 320,080,003

TheLegoMaster35

270,517,050

caterham7

Keeping it simple.

7

COOLEGO

2,400,000

Reading posts like yours just increase me desire to head to Billund soon...

datsunrobbie

42

MugenPower

22618

sid3windr

126,344,898

Brainslugged

So I decided to take this way too seriously and maximise my chances of winning. As a result, my number is 618,440,955 which currently gives me a 2.94% chance of winning (versus what would have been an average 1.20% chance of winning with 83 people playing).

Of course, not everyone has a 1.20% of chance of winning. For example, poor old @redarmy with his choice of “1” only has a 0.0000003% chance of winning, or 1 in 305,034,585. If he’s planning on beating these odds someday, I hope it isn’t today and is instead on a day he plays the lottery or decides to be involved in a plane crash.

I also thought it would be interesting to create a chart of the number choice distribution just to see how bad humans are at choosing random numbers. Not only were 36 of the 83 numbers chosen under 100 million (despite having over 915 million numbers to choose from), but half of those (18) were under 1 million (although I’m well aware that some of these were joke guesses). The results still demonstrate why it’s always best to choose random numbers for a lottery, because in the very unlikely event you should win, the chances of having to share the prize with someone else are minimised.

Oh, and for the record, the next best number to choose now is 398,855,563 if anyone wants it. Or you could just do one more or less than my guess and reduce the chance of me winning by 50% just to annoy me 😊.

Oh… and thanks to @stlux for hosting.

Lego_Star

534607827 is my number choice. 

Thanks for hosting @stlux.

DeMontes

@Lego_Star I think you meant to say 398,855,563...

DeMontes

@Brainslugged  Did you take into account the previous numbers @stlux had been given?  She said "After these "small" numbers, I received a larger combo in November: 732,360,128. Last week my combo was quite different again"

That suggests that it would be 'quite different' from the others and I think this is why many chose a low number.

:-)

Brainslugged said:

So I decided to take this way too seriously and maximise my chances of winning. As a result, my number is 618,440,955 which currently gives me a 2.94% chance of winning (versus what would have been an average 1.20% chance of winning with 83 people playing).

Lego_Star

@DeMontes Nope! ;o) lol. 

My number choice was quite deliberate. Anyone care to venture the reason as to why I chose that specific number?
:o)

JBricks27

67,864,964

Onebricktoomany

857,511,919

Redbullgivesuwind

@Brainslugged the analysis in me is so impressed by the maths. The mischief maker in me really wants you to be way out. 

Brainslugged

Redbullgivesuwind said:

@Brainslugged the analysis in me is so impressed by the maths. The mischief maker in me really wants you to be way out. 

Based on what @DeMontes said above, I probably am!

alldarker

OK, I've updated the list up and until Onebricktoomany's entry (even if his entry and BobaFett27's entry are technically past the deadline). @stlux has the file I made, so he can check the winner. To be honest, I haven't yet updated my file to remove already given out brick combo numbers. Including those numbers would change the odds very, very, very slightly. Perhaps when I've nother better to do, I'll compile a list of whatever combo's I can find on the internet (including stlux's of course). 

All in all we had 87 entry's. Just like last time, a huge amount of entries (37: 42.5%) were in the bracket 1-100,000,000. I have no idea why, but it's perhaps not the wisest choice, given the amount of possible combinations/numbers. Personally, I always wait with presenting the analysis so as not to interfere with people's guesses, but as @brainslugged already showed, there's a definite fear of high numbers. Distribution didn't change much with the last couple of entries. 

Brainslugged's entry was the most statistically rational: a very late entry, based on 83 other people's guesses, and choosing the number in the middle of the largest available range of non-chosen entries. However, he doesn't have the highest chance of winning: there's three people with a >4% chance of winning, with @BrickByBrick having a chance of 4.8236% of being nearest stlux's combination-number. 

stlux

With thanks to @alldarker and @Brainslugged for putting together the list and the entertaining analysis, here are the entries:

@redarmy 1

@caterham7 7

@datsunrobbie 42

@brickedin 501

@SumoLego 11,233

@Legolis 20,400

@SirBen 21,942

@MugenPower 22,618

@DeMontes 67,700

@CaptainPirateMan 77,777

@norm103 107,938

@dmcc0 123,456

@iliketoast 201,612

@piratemania7 265,380

@kwkw 282,765

@khmellymel 461,238

@snowhitie 919,353

@pookie 972,220

@TheOriginalSimonB 1,313,562

@COOLEGO 2,400,000

@SeijiAmasawa 3,569,157

@Toc13 3,669,722

@davetheoxygenman 8,585,975

@ravendragonwing 13,198,250

@Gibbo1959 28,051,959

@Cyberdragon 42,420,442

@ericb 44,912,889

@Basty 47,539,281

@sirrich69 49,428,092

@dannyrww 61,313,053

@Russell844 66,666,666

@BobaFett27 67,864,964

@Mr_Cross 74,791,114

@Leandro16 86,616,238

@msanders 87,678,354

@brickventures 88,888,888

@mak0137 91,458,279

@tcc 111,235,042

@jmeninno 121,121,121

@J0rgen 123,456,789

@eMJeeNL 124,244,031

@Vgang 125,635,947

@sid3windr 126,344,898

@f2iso100 145,642,891

@SprinkleOtter 180,000,000

@cleverusername 186,371,400

@starwars4ever 210,210,420

@benbacardi 232,323,232

@thedingman5 234,765,123

@TheLegoMaster35 270,517,050

@RogerKirk 297,345,000

@im2cre8iv 302,294,301

@Covi 313,727,151

@lord_relish 320,080,003

@theLEGOman 333,333,333

@Switchfoot55 348,928,217

@alldarker 369,473,084

@Matt89190 372,492,109

@BillyBricks84 425,219,016

@CCC 432,360,127

@Muftak1 435,719,255

@Cymbeline 438,326,175

@historyman 450,000,000

@CommanderRaab 485,103,765

@FowlerBricks 489,909,100

@oldtodd33 500,000,001

@ReesesPieces 518,435,890

@khopewosin 532,160,128

@Lego_Star 534,607,827

@LittleLori 534,678,192

@teal93mr2 539,185,670

@diddypi 591,503,765

@Brainslugged 618,440,955

@kiki180703 645,378,145

@TheFew 666,666,666

@kez 686,327,823

@DB361 697,361,168

@M_Boss 700,837,924

@MegtheCat 713,281,832

@pxchris 717,171,777

@Bobflip 734,528,966

@Bumblepants 769,230,011

@BrickByBrick 821,353,142

@Onebricktoomany 857,511,919

@Shib 865,123,555

@Jern92 906,734,103

@Renegade007cjh 912,345,678

Now off to take a picture of my card and announce the winner!

Covi

Oooooh the tension!

snowhitie

I just love these discussions and analytics!

eMJeeNL

Ooooh.... im so benieuwd! ;)

redarmy

Brainslugged said:

So I decided to take this way too seriously and maximise my chances of winning. As a result, my number is 618,440,955 which currently gives me a 2.94% chance of winning (versus what would have been an average 1.20% chance of winning with 83 people playing).

Of course, not everyone has a 1.20% of chance of winning. For example, poor old @redarmy with his choice of “1” only has a 0.0000003% chance of winning, or 1 in 305,034,585. If he’s planning on beating these odds someday, I hope it isn’t today and is instead on a day he plays the lottery or decides to be involved in a plane crash.

I also thought it would be interesting to create a chart of the number choice distribution just to see how bad humans are at choosing random numbers. Not only were 36 of the 83 numbers chosen under 100 million (despite having over 915 million numbers to choose from), but half of those (18) were under 1 million (although I’m well aware that some of these were joke guesses). The results still demonstrate why it’s always best to choose random numbers for a lottery, because in the very unlikely event you should win, the chances of having to share the prize with someone else are minimised.

Oh, and for the record, the next best number to choose now is 398,855,563 if anyone wants it. Or you could just do one more or less than my guess and reduce the chance of me winning by 50% just to annoy me 😊.

Oh… and thanks to @stlux for hosting.

O' ye of little faith my good man!