Good Lego investment?

Benderobot

Hi, do you think any of these sets would be a good investment?

LuLego

A good investment in your time in building them!

Money? Anyone’s guess. There’s a great thread here https://forum.brickset.com/discussion/1958/predictions-on-discontinuing-sets-and-their-secondary-market-value#latest
which might offer some advice.

akunthita

Small, commonly available sets are usually not good investments. Maybe the TRON set has some potential as it is a limited run LEGO Ideas set. Although LEGO has been getting much better at making enough of the LEGO Ideas sets so that everybody who wants them can get them before they get retired. So, you would either have to hold it for a very long time before it might produce some marginal profit (I'm talking about 5-10 years as you are competing against lots of other resellers), or you would have to find it for some crazy good price like $5 per set. Personally, I wouldn't consider any of these sets for investment at full price or even half price.

Investing in LEGO is a lot harder than it used to be. Gone are the days when you could make 1k on a set you bought for $100 just a few years prior. Now, lots of people are holding on to LEGO sets as an investment. They continue to trickle their stock to the secondary market, thus keeping prices close to the original retail price, or maybe little higher even years after the retirement of the set. So, unless you got your investment well below market value, you won't be turning a profit for a long time, or ever. LEGO usually holds its value though, so you should be able to recoup your money if you decide to dump your stock.

In addition, LEGO has been making better and nicer versions of old favorites, and thus there is no incentive for people to buy an old set when they can just get a newer version for a better price. Starting last year, LEGO even began re-releasing retired large exclusive sets like the Taj Mahal and the Death Star, which completely shattered the resale value of the originals, and is making people who invest in large sets nervous.  

There are still good LEGO investments though. Region-specific sets can still turn a nice profit, like the Asia-specific Lunar New Year sets, the Marina Bay Sands, etc. Creator Expert trains also have a good potential, but I would stay away from regular City trains. I do see an opportunity with the PF1 system, as I know many people don't like PF2 and are stocking up on PF1 components while they are still available. The change is not as drastic as from 12V to PF as the tracks for PF1 and PF2 are the same, but still the components of PF1 could sell well once they are no longer available from LEGO directly. 

As I said, investing in LEGO takes a lot more thought, research, and a good deal of luck to actually be profitable these day. But even 10 years ago I would have not invested in small to medium commonly available sets. The only exception would be LEGO Ideas, as those sets used to run in very limited quantities. But that's no longer the case, so that opportunity is pretty much gone as well. 

     

Astrobricks

^ I’m glad you wrote that @akunthita, as I just couldn’t work up the energy :-/

CCC

Short answer: Yes, at the right price. Otherwise no.

Toker

With the amount of sets that Lego produces today, I can't imagine normal production sets being worth much in the future. Not to mention that they are now re-releasing or upgrading older sets that were in high demand, like the UCS MF and Taj Mahal.

Paperballpark

Basically no. Take the Tron set, which is the only one which may be vaguely worth it. What's the RRP? £30? £40? (I can't remember and can't be bothered to check).

Let's say it's £40. Let's also say that it will increase in value, and that you buy 100 of them (£4k) now, to sell in five years for maybe £50 each. Only you won't sell them all straight away, otherwise you'll single-handedly kill the resale price. So let's say you sell one per week. So it takes you two years to make a profit of £1k. In theory. But that's before ebay and paypal fees, which would take about 15 - 20% of that, and before you consider where you're going to store 100 of them for 5-7 years.

Alternatively, you could stick £4k in a bank account earning 2% interest per year, and by the end of year 7 you'd have about £4,600, for doing nothing - no hassle, no storage needed, no angry buyers, no stress.

Basically, once you take inflation into account, what you'd be doing is making about £200 for a load of work and hassle, over the course of 6 or 7 years.

It's a mug's game.

pharmjod

As @ccc said, it's all about your buy in price and timing. If you get just about any of those sets near the end of their shelf life for 50% off or more, doubling your money in a year or two is very likely. But there are many variables to consider.

brianoblivion

akunthita said:

 I do see an opportunity with the PF1 system, as I know many people don't like PF2 and are stocking up on PF1 components while they are still available. The change is not as drastic as from 12V to PF as the tracks for PF1 and PF2 are the same, but still the components of PF1 could sell well once they are no longer available from LEGO directly.      

What is the issue people are having with the new Powered Up system? I have the two new city trains that utilize it and they both work really well.

DB361

See I disagree with the verdict of Tron being the only one with any potential as I personally think it's massively overpriced at RRP. Burj Khalifa might make a couple of quid as Architecture sets normally do OK, but again put it this way - as a reseller it's not a set that's ever come on my radar to buy.
Lego's an expensive thing to take a gamble on, so at the very least you've got to be clued up on how to actually make any money from it. If you're having to come on here to ask what sets might be worth money, then you're in the wrong game!

datsunrobbie

I'm expecting to see a lot of Architecture sets on clearance at Target after the holiday rush, at least locally. Closest Target has a new section with them that I took a picture of back on November 3. Stopped in there on Saturday, same sets still on the shelves.

akunthita

brianoblivion said:

akunthita said:

 I do see an opportunity with the PF1 system, as I know many people don't like PF2 and are stocking up on PF1 components while they are still available. The change is not as drastic as from 12V to PF as the tracks for PF1 and PF2 are the same, but still the components of PF1 could sell well once they are no longer available from LEGO directly.      

What is the issue people are having with the new Powered Up system? I have the two new city trains that utilize it and they both work really well.

It's just that PF2 is not compatible with PF1. Those who heavily invested in the PF1 system don't want to switch over to PF2. Of course, you can run both types of trains on the same tracks, but still, the components are not compatible, so you can't just mix and match for custom trains. There are some other features that are limiting. Like that the plugs can't be stacked, the limitations of the remote, the distance from witch the remote can operate, etc. It's not that PF2 is bad, it has some cool features too, but it's different, and again, not compatible with PF1. If someone is new to LEGO trains, PF2 is perfectly fine. There are a number of compatibility reviews on the two systems which goes into more detail. I like this one by Sariel:

https://youtu.be/bjcasrQeKqY

Astrobricks

datsunrobbie said:

I'm expecting to see a lot of Architecture sets on clearance at Target after the holiday rush, at least locally. Closest Target has a new section with them that I took a picture of back on November 3. Stopped in there on Saturday, same sets still on the shelves.

I’d expect they would have moved some stock during the $10 gift card deal. 

I’ve still never seen Architecture at a Target around here, so I hope clearance deals show up online.

Pitfall69

I started with 9v Trains and what is great is that you can run all 3 systems on the same track :) I haven't played around with the PF2 yet, but just like the other systems; there are pros and cons.

As far as those particular Lego sets; there isn't anything in that group that stands out as a great investment, although, as others have said; it is all about your buy-in cost. 

I bet you that most Americans wouldn't know what "Burj Khalifa" is; in fact, most Americans still call the Tower Bridge the "London" Bridge. 

vwong19

The Lego investment idea is really a thing AFOL tell their significant others to justify their collecting habits. Another argument is the collection is for their unborn child. After the collection reaches a certain threshold or space constraint, that line no longer holds much water. 

What you hear in the news about investing or see on eBay and Bricklink is simply a ruse that AFOL created to trade amongst themselves and also to create an inflated market that only AFOL can term as sustainable.

SumoLego

I'm collecting for unborn AFOLs.  Does that count?

SumoLego

Although I would note that there is a vibrant secondary/collector market - as with just about anything humans collect or create.  Folks collect Nike shoes and all sorts of possibly pedestrian items.  Antiques Roadshow is an actual thing.  

But - with any market - sustainability is great until it isn't.  Beanie Babies.

Switchfoot55

I collect root beer.  Tough re-sellers market on 12 year old root beer...

Astrobricks

Switchfoot55 said:

I collect root beer.  Tough re-sellers market on 12 year old root beer...

Reminds me of the collections of full souvenir Coke bottles I’ve seen in antique stores.

piratemania7

Great thanks Bricksetters now I will be scrambling too for PF1 items! Because why not!

datsunrobbie

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-17/lego-collecting-delivers-huge-and-uncorrelated-market-returns

Bloomberg has a new article up to keep the "invest in Lego" idea going.

CCC

Some quotes:

"a kit for Star Wars Darth Revan that retailed in 2014 for $3.99 went for $28.46 on eBay a year later"

"The relation wasn’t perfectly linear. Small sets yield the most, but those with 2,000 pieces do better than medium-sized ones."

“Smaller Lego sets could be more rare than larger sets produced en masse, though it’s hard to know for sure,” Dobrynskaya said.

In other words, minifigure heavy small sets (such as licensed polybags, CMFs, etc) yield largest percentage increases, followed by the larger (2000+ piece) sets that do better than the medium sized ones.

Something resellers have known for a while. Invest in the minifigures, invest in the big sets.

"Lego sets that focus on Super Heroes, Batman and Indiana Jones are among the ones that do best over time."

They (SH) did before LEGO started producing many more Super Hero sets. Now, they are fairly poor performing as there are so many rehashes.

"Newer sets have higher returns than older ones, though this can be due to a growing popularity of investments in Lego, Dobrynskaya said."

Newer meaning probably roughly 2000-2015 compared to 1987-2000, that is, licensed stuff compared to non-licensed. Whereas new new sets (post 2015) are not likely to perform anywhere near as well as just a few years ago.

monkyby87

akunthita said:

Small, commonly available sets are usually not good investments. Maybe the TRON set has some potential as it is a limited run LEGO Ideas set. Although LEGO has been getting much better at making enough of the LEGO Ideas sets so that everybody who wants them can get them before they get retired. So, you would either have to hold it for a very long time before it might produce some marginal profit (I'm talking about 5-10 years as you are competing against lots of other resellers), or you would have to find it for some crazy good price like $5 per set. Personally, I wouldn't consider any of these sets for investment at full price or even half price.

Investing in LEGO is a lot harder than it used to be. Gone are the days when you could make 1k on a set you bought for $100 just a few years prior. Now, lots of people are holding on to LEGO sets as an investment. They continue to trickle their stock to the secondary market, thus keeping prices close to the original retail price, or maybe little higher even years after the retirement of the set. So, unless you got your investment well below market value, you won't be turning a profit for a long time, or ever. LEGO usually holds its value though, so you should be able to recoup your money if you decide to dump your stock.

In addition, LEGO has been making better and nicer versions of old favorites, and thus there is no incentive for people to buy an old set when they can just get a newer version for a better price. Starting last year, LEGO even began re-releasing retired large exclusive sets like the Taj Mahal and the Death Star, which completely shattered the resale value of the originals, and is making people who invest in large sets nervous.  

There are still good LEGO investments though. Region-specific sets can still turn a nice profit, like the Asia-specific Lunar New Year sets, the Marina Bay Sands, etc. Creator Expert trains also have a good potential, but I would stay away from regular City trains. I do see an opportunity with the PF1 system, as I know many people don't like PF2 and are stocking up on PF1 components while they are still available. The change is not as drastic as from 12V to PF as the tracks for PF1 and PF2 are the same, but still the components of PF1 could sell well once they are no longer available from LEGO directly. 

As I said, investing in LEGO takes a lot more thought, research, and a good deal of luck to actually be profitable these day. But even 10 years ago I would have not invested in small to medium commonly available sets. The only exception would be LEGO Ideas, as those sets used to run in very limited quantities. But that's no longer the case, so that opportunity is pretty much gone as well. 

     

This is a really good summary of investing in Lego.  I think some people see the article headlines talking about Lego investing and think "oh, I can buy a Lego set and turn a profit in a few years".  Well maybe, but it's not that simple, as this response mentions.  
Ebay can be a decent indicator of what a set might sell for, but also think about this; all of those sets you see listed for triple their price, are they actually selling for that price?  Just because someone lists a set for a ton of money doesn't mean it's going to sell for that.  The sets you listed above might make you a bit of money, but you'll by no means making a huge profit.  And honestly, I probably wouldn't bother holding on to those sets and making space for them I hopes of breaking even down the road.  

Lego is a good investment until everyone starts investing in it, lol.

Bumblepants

Whenever I see articles like this I think of my colleague who was excitedly telling me how much the used Speed Racer sets in his attic were going to be worth. Um ok good luck with that.

SumoLego

As with anything nowadays, collecting is highly specialized.  And don't believe eBay reserve, list or 'buy it now' prices...

560Heliport

The problem with Ebay prices is that, even an actual sale... that's the price that just one person was willing to pay. Maybe no one else on the planet would pay that much, but that guy really, really wanted it.   

SumoLego

(It's an abberation - but that one guy is part of the market.)

BooTheMightyHamster

I was that guy...

Lego_Lord_Mayorca

There seems to have been a spike lately of people joining the forums just to pose one-off questions like, "identify this lot for me, please", "how much is this worth everybody?", or "Can't follow basic instructions; tell me what I'm doing wrong with this set!" Is this due to the Facebook group launching, or are we getting an influx of that LEGO Reddit normie crowd?

And to obliterate the question posed: nada. LEGO is worth nothing! I pay for them because I am a fool and I have too much money. Don't follow my example, please.

Baby_Yoda

"that Lego Reddit normie crowd"
Quickly, everyone! Gather your sausages and your sand-green 1x8s! Don your white rangefinders! We must all unite to defend our motherland!

Lego_Lord_Mayorca

Baby_Yoda said:

"that Lego Reddit normie crowd"
Quickly, everyone! Gather your sausages and your sand-green 1x8s! Don your white rangefinders! We must all unite to defend our motherland!

Watch out! They're throwing a banana at us...for scale!!!

madforLEGO

LEGO was a good investment, until everyone started talking about it (and more importantly started filling storage lockers with sets as a business). Sure yes, you can still eke out a profit, but it is a lot more difficult than it once was.

Paraphrasing Tyler Durdin: The first rule of LEGO investment is....

Bosstone100

^ I have a 15x10 storage unit half filled with Lego and never had any real intention of selling anything. I have spare modulars that I intended on making alternate buildings with but never got around to it. 

Pitfall69

madforLEGO said:

LEGO was a good investment, until everyone started talking about it (and more importantly started filling storage lockers with sets as a business). Sure yes, you can still eke out a profit, but it is a lot more difficult than it once was.

Paraphrasing Tyler Durdin: The first rule of LEGO investment is....

Yes, it is definitely not as "easy" as it once was, but there is still a pretty good profit to be had. With good timing, some luck and a little work, you can still make money. I think that there is still a large market for individual parts and pieces, but I really don't know how much work BL sellers put in. On the outside, it looks like a lot of work for very little profit, but I have never sold parts on BL, so I don't really know for sure.

Bosstone100 said:

^ I have a 15x10 storage unit half filled with Lego and never had any real intention of selling anything. I have spare modulars that I intended on making alternate buildings with but never got around to it. 

I'm kinda in the same boat. I have an 9 x 25 area filled with Lego and I never had any intention to sell anything in the beginning, but now I want most of it gone. I did the same thing with the Modulars; I would buy multiples to expand my city, but never got around to building the extra sets or even some of the Modulars I only had one copy of.

M1J0E

BooTheMightyHamster said:

I was that guy...

I’ve definitely been that guy before too (not just with LEGO).  

datsunrobbie

There's only 30 58 quart tubs of unsorted Lego down here in the basement, all bought used with the intent of sorting and building, but I got a little backed up. I really planned to cut back on buying this year, but those 75 cent Unikitty blind bags aren't going to buy themselves, so off I go.

ryjay

With investing, you gotta know....are you a buyer or a seller?  If a seller, then you are always on the hunt for that "one guy", especially if you dont have an endless well of inventory on certain items.    If a buyer, then it really is just feel good moments investing in Lego...and that is worth something, too :)