SDCC 2018 LEGO Minifigure Predictions

kbw

So one more stupid question: For those that collect these, I assume you all keep them sealed?

VorpalRyu

I don't keep any sets or minifigures meant for my personal collection sealed. I've had fun in the past showing off pics to the Übergeeks of my sons James (now age 9) & Anthony (4 years old) playing with my SDCC stuff. It's hilarious most of the time, but some losers really do get a little too serious.

Kaitch

I've just purchased a second-hand Rocket Raccoon's Warbird kit. The seller says they opened it, built it, and now has to cut down their collection. It's got all the pieces, the box etc, it's just been opened. As I intend to build and "swoosh" it myself, I'm quite happy to buy a pre-loved one.

vwong19

Pitfall69 said:

$166

Don’t feel bad, there were a couple Black Lightning sales yesterday for $200+!?

kbw

vwong19 said:

Prices have leveled off the past few days. Deadpool is much more popular and has sustained it's high price. The prices may continue to drop as reflected by the lower Buy It Now Prices, but supply is decreasing for Black Lightning and Deadpool. Unikitty supply is still high so expect that to drop.

2018 SDCC Lego Minifigure Exclusives Price Guide
Based on known eBay sale prices including shipping as of 7/28 8a PST 
5d Avg, (Lo-Hi), # Sold, Figure, # Unsold, Buy It Now Low
----------------------------------------
$119 ($80-342) n=262, Black Lightning, 141, $109
$258 ($170-400) n=218, Deadpool, 142, $243.50
$99 ($65-215) n=165, Unikitty, 170, $93.50

The sales report doesn't include Best offer accepted sales or lot sales, which accounts for probably 25% of the sales that I tabulated.

Raw Data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16LRsWAvY_TAoVBx6zQi1Qeahu3IidcFtgquQtxpFWTA/edit#gid=0

vwong19 said:

I hope the price data will be useful in the future to assist people of the price trend which seems to happen every year after SDCC. I think the bubble condition shouldn’t factor too much in the overall pricing of the set. After all the bubble packaging is not sealed and can be swapped with another less valuable figure (I.e. bionicle mask or Unikitty).

This has been really helpful for me. Thank you for providing all this

Pitfall69

vwong19 said:

Pitfall69 said:

$166

Don’t feel bad, there were a couple Black Lightning sales yesterday for $200+!?

Yeah, I think that makes me feel a little better...a little ;)

Umandraug

VorpalRyu said:

I don't keep any sets or minifigures meant for my personal collection sealed. I've had fun in the past showing off pics to the Übergeeks of my sons James (now age 9) & Anthony (4 years old) playing with my SDCC stuff. It's hilarious most of the time, but some losers really do get a little too serious.

The way God intended them to be used.

SumoLego

Umandraug said:

VorpalRyu said:

I don't keep any sets or minifigures meant for my personal collection sealed.

The way God intended them to be used.

They're supposed to be in the Konishi Toy Museum... in JAPAN!

kbw

Is there a good resource for pricing information on past year’s figures? It doesn’t seem like much of these things make it to Brinklink either.  

mattytreks

My good friend’s kids made a neat video about some of this year’s SDCC exclusives:
https://youtu.be/fC6fsW78vl8

vwong19

kbw said:

Is there a good resource for pricing information on past year’s figures? It doesn’t seem like much of these things make it to Brinklink either.  

You got me looking and I collected the recent eBay (last 2 months) and Bricklink (last 6 months) sales of past SDCC Lego Superhero minifigures and added it to the spreadsheet.

Some (obvious) observations: 
1. Marvel is more valuable than DC.
2. Batman and Spiderman are the most popular figures.
3. SDCC 2013 rarity is reflected in its prices.
4. There is no sales data for SDCC 2011 Batman. There are a lot of these up for sale at $500, but nothing sold with known values.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16LRsWAvY_TAoVBx6zQi1Qeahu3IidcFtgquQtxpFWTA/edit#gid=1818090174

mattytreks

^^ vwong, I relish number-crunching like that!  Very insightful.  The Collector is really starting to creep up there and approach Zur-en-arrh Batman as the most expensive post-2013 SDCC minifigure.

In other news, it's clear that I began my SDCC minifigure collection one year too late (2014).  To even attempt to procure all four 2013 minifigures at this point would be fiscally irresponsible.

In other news, since 2015 DC has been rather "meh", with the likes of Arsenal, Atom, Vixen, and Black Lightning.

alldarker

I'll tell you: I started my SDCC Superheroes collection right in 2011 with Batman and Green Lantern. Even back in 2013 those four SDCC figures were 'above my pay grade'. @vwong: I've always appreciated the effort you put into the data-collection, and it has saved me some money by not jumping in too fast.
This year, due to the different distribution system, I wasn't sure if the same rules would apply, so I was a little too eager on the trigger and overpaid somewhat on Black Lightning. Evidently, the same pattern HAS emerged with sellers, even with the new system. Good to know for next year...   

vwong19

The data shows why it was difficult for me to buy from attendees. I felt that the value of the figure was lower than what the market was at the time. It's known that SDCC Lego minifigures have value, but most people base it on a few high sale prices on eBay and doesn't consider the influx of supply after distribution and then factor in the sales commision and shipping costs. In the end, these figures are only worth what someone is willing to pay.

kbw

vwong19 said:

kbw said:

Is there a good resource for pricing information on past year’s figures? It doesn’t seem like much of these things make it to Brinklink either.  

You got me looking and I collected the recent eBay (last 2 months) and Bricklink (last 6 months) sales of past SDCC Lego Superhero minifigures and added it to the spreadsheet.

Some (obvious) observations: 
1. Marvel is more valuable than DC.
2. Batman and Spiderman are the most popular figures.
3. SDCC 2013 rarity is reflected in its prices.
4. There is no sales data for SDCC 2011 Batman. There are a lot of these up for sale at $500, but nothing sold with known values.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16LRsWAvY_TAoVBx6zQi1Qeahu3IidcFtgquQtxpFWTA/edit#gid=1818090174

This is great. I really appreciate this. I’ve gone down this rabbit hole and am very interested in some of these figures, but don’t want to overpay. I realize overpaying is somewhat in the eye of the beholder, but it helps to have historical price data. The sale prices for the 2016 Steve Rogers Captain America were much lower than I anticipated as most of them on eBay at the moment are $300+. I’d love to have that one.  eBay also appears to offer some value in certain cases due to the auction format, whereas the Bricklink prices are mostly fixed. For example, The Collector has some outlier values on eBay, whereas his sale price on Bricklink is more concentrated. I’ll just have to keep my eyes peeled and keep checking around. Thanks again. This is super helpful. 

husky96

I've sucked it up and have purchased all 3 on eBay.

$108 Unikitty
$122 Black Lightning
$250 Deadpool

Deadpool is just not going down in price and seems like it has been hovering around this price, so I went ahead and bought it.

mattytreks

I expect Sheriffpool to exhibit the same pricing as Duckpool did last year, whereby it basically hovered around $250 for a few months, then dipped ever so slightly to around a $225 average until the couple of weeks before SDCC 2018 hit, and then Duckpool sales spiked up a bit.

Overall you did well!

vwong19

I added some more historical prices that I found buried in my old email. I had placed many eBay bids and lost in 2012 and 2013 since I didn’t win the SDCC figures those years through the Lego raffle so I have the email acknowledgments for each. Also ocassionally I made token bids with the hopes of trying to win some figures at very low prices. The spreadsheet show how some of the prices have escalated while also showing how prices did dip pretty low (I.e. Vixen $80 in Oct/Nov 2017) before going back up. It’s been fun tracking this information and has helped me with my purchases.

CCC

Kaitch said:

Out of curiosity, what do folks think the response would be if TLG made more of the exclusives? As I understand it, they'd sell pretty much all they made, so the only real impact would be on the after-market. I can't imagine they'd be less popular if there were twice as many.

You could say the same for 5x as many, 10x as many 100x as many. Part of their popularity is their exclusiveness. People talk about them as they are exclusive. If they were to give one to every comic con attendee, or make them available at $3.99, then the secondary market would still be there, but they would be worth maybe $20. But with it, the buzz around them would also die. LEGO might as well stop doing them as comic con exclsuives and just release them as a polybag gift with purchase or similar.

vwong19

Something interesting happened yesterday with the 2018 SDCC Deadpool. The sale price of the figure spiked up on eBay from $239 (median low) to $270 (up 18%) in one day from 8/7 to 8/8. I can only attribute the sudden interest to the recent Deadpool 2 Uncut release on 8/7 on digital. The physical release will be 8/21 so there may be another spike.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16LRsWAvY_TAoVBx6zQi1Qeahu3IidcFtgquQtxpFWTA/edit#gid=1381419359

mattytreks

@vwong19 observing how the market reacts to certain things is certainly interesting.

I imagine as we get closer to the release of LEGO Movie 2, the SDCC 2018 and SDCC 2014 UniKitty minifigures may see similar - but albeit temporary - spikes, as well.

pharmjod

The 15% off coupon on ebay probably pushed the prices higher as well as folks adjusted their prices up. People panic buy using the 15% off coupon to try to get it for what it was going for previously.

Fireheart

Finally got the SDCC delivery. And I have to say the best part for me is the box art on these.. let’s hope they continue the theme at NYCC.. Shazam, and Captain Marvel would be good..

mattytreks

^^^ a set of boxes to open, and one set to keep sealed.  Love it!

Pitfall69

Where's the "just in case" sets??

playwell

"just in case" sets have to be kept at a different location, just in case!

vwong19

If anyone has any eBay price information on 2011 SDCC/NYCC Batman or Green Lantern, especially back in 2011, could you send me a PM? The price spreadsheet has a good span of pricing except for that year. I’m pretty sure the figures sold for around $50-100 ea back then, but don’t have any real data.

I wonder how many 2011 figures exist in mint condition now with card. I recall at Comic Con 2011 some kids playing with their Batman’s  immediately after they won.

Is it too early to start thinking about NYCC... I think NYCC has been an after thought for Lego in some years.

pharmjod

Well, they did release the cool boba Fett / Han Solo Carbonite brickheadz figure at NYCC last year. So not sure about after thought.

samiam391

vwong19 said:

If anyone has any eBay price information on 2011 SDCC/NYCC Batman or Green Lantern, especially back in 2011, could you send me a PM? The price spreadsheet has a good span of pricing except for that year. I’m pretty sure the figures sold for around $50-100 ea back then, but don’t have any real data.

I wonder how many 2011 figures exist in mint condition now with card. I recall at Comic Con 2011 some kids playing with their Batman’s  immediately after they won.

Is it too early to start thinking about NYCC... I think NYCC has been an after thought for Lego in some years.

I don't have specific data either but I know the $50-100 range is correct. I think Green Lantern could even be had for $25 at the time. Memories.

Pitfall69

SMC said:

"just in case" sets have to be kept at a different location, just in case!

...in a case; just in case

SumoLego

Pitfall69 said:

SMC said:

"just in case" sets have to be kept at a different location, just in case!

...in a case; just in case

In an AFA Rated Case... in case; just in case.  And in Denver, owned by Case.

mattytreks

There’s an eBay seller right now, premium_minifigs, who’s got auctions up for just about every LEGO SDCC exclusive ever made – from 2009 all they way up through 2018.  And this includes all four of the Uber-elusive 2013 minifigures.

https://m.ebay.com/sch/premium_minifigs/m.html?_nkw=&_armrs=1&_ipg=&_from=

kbw

I wish I hadn’t seen this post. I’d love to get my hands on the Spider Man in the Symbiote Costume. 

SumoLego

I recently realized that the only Jean Grey that was produced was the Phoenix.  (And as I have a 'set' of X-Men figures - one simply cannot be without Jean Grey!)

kbw

Spider man really ticked up in past hour. Sigh
Side note, i realize these things are expensive. I was somehow hoping that people wouldn’t be paying as much attention and price would’ve stayed a bit lower. 

Fireheart

Tell me about it, just got a couple of the Star Wars tins.. paid top dollar, but nice to have items. And how often can you get these in good condition..
Hope all is well with the seller, as selling this much this quick is a big gamble...

kbw

SumoLego said:

I recently realized that the only Jean Grey that was produced was the Phoenix.  (And as I have a 'set' of X-Men figures - one simply cannot be without Jean Grey!)

Success?

kbw

In hindsight I should have tried to nab the 2012 Green Lantern since he went for a more reasonable price. Spidey is my favorite so I wanted to make a run at him.  I really wasn’t prepared to pony up as much as he went for. Guess I shouldn’t be chasing him if I’m looking for a value. Haha

mattytreks

These ending prices have likely set new record highs for each of the four 2013 minifigures.

I’m still pinching myself right now...Spider-Man over 3.5k, Green Lantern over 2.5k, and Spider-Woman at nearly 2.3k... o_O

kbw

Superman seems like a relative bargain

samiam391

Fireheart said:

Tell me about it, just got a couple of the Star Wars tins.. paid top dollar, but nice to have items. And how often can you get these in good condition..
Hope all is well with the seller, as selling this much this quick is a big gamble...

I know the seller very, very well (for the last 6 years). All is well with him; he does like to gamble with auctions :) 

He's a strict re-seller who is very good at what he does. He often "collects" for a few months before dumping everything in one giant lot, as you saw today.

Enjoy your items!

BlueberryWaffles

vwong19 said:

If anyone has any eBay price information on 2011 SDCC/NYCC Batman or Green Lantern, especially back in 2011, could you send me a PM? The price spreadsheet has a good span of pricing except for that year. I’m pretty sure the figures sold for around $50-100 ea back then, but don’t have any real data.

I bought the SDCC pair back in 2011 for $85 total. Unfortunately, Batman's card got damaged and the plate fell off, I'm debating on how to restore it.

vwong19

I thought I'd update the Lego SDCC price history of pre-2018 figures. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16LRsWAvY_TAoVBx6zQi1Qeahu3IidcFtgquQtxpFWTA/edit#gid=1818090174

Pitfall69

SumoLego said:

Pitfall69 said:

SMC said:

"just in case" sets have to be kept at a different location, just in case!

...in a case; just in case

In an AFA Rated Case... in case; just in case.  And in Denver, owned by Case.

You are a "case".

Pitfall69

Ok. This is crazy, but I am seriously thinking about selling my Batman of zur-en-arrh. Here's a pic.

Fireheart

So why is there no NYCC LEGO exclusive 2018? Is it normal for some years to be missed? 

Lyichir

Fireheart said:

So why is there no NYCC LEGO exclusive 2018? Is it normal for some years to be missed? 

Yeah, NYCC doesn't always get exclusives (for instance, I don't think there was an exclusive the year it was devoted to Nexo Knights).

Aanchir

Fireheart said:

So why is there no NYCC LEGO exclusive 2018? Is it normal for some years to be missed? 

I see no indication that LEGO will even have a booth at NYCC this year. The most LEGO-related things I see on the NYCC site are the TwoMorrows Publishing booth, LEGO artist Dan Veesenmeyer's booth, the LEGO DC Super Villains interview panel, and the LEGO DC Super Villains Inside Look panel.

It wouldn't be the first time LEGO has skipped NYCC. They also did so in 2012 so that they could repurpose the promotional budget that would normally go towards maintaining a booth for their life-size LEGO X-Wing unveiling at Times Square. In this case, if I had to guess, I suspect if a particular event is going to take precedent over NYCC, it would be not-yet-announced plans to fully reveal the LEGO Overwatch theme at BlizzCon this November in Los Angeles.

Glancing at the BlizzCon schedule, there's a panel scheduled for 5:30pm on Saturday with the name "Overwatch: Building a Hero", with the summary "Ever wonder how Overwatch heroes are made? Join the developers as they show us what it takes to make heroes come to life." Considering how different this phrasing is from the "Artist at Work" panels for Overwatch and other games which are more focused on actual game design and development, it seems plausible that "Building a Hero" could be the LEGO reveal event.

Baby_Yoda

^ That does sound plausible. It's kind of misleading, though, isn't it? Imagine going to an event where you expect to see some behind-the-scenes game development stuff, and getting a bunch of Lego set reveals. Or are more details added as the event draws nearer?

redarmy

Pitfall69 said:

Ok. This is crazy, but I am seriously thinking about selling my Batman of zur-en-arrh. Here's a pic.

Sell it.Give it to me out of the goodness of your heart.Or whatever.No pressure.😁