SDCC 2018 LEGO Minifigure Predictions

Fireheart

VorpalRyu said:

Love that Marvel poster, wonder how much they're going for on eBay...


*edit* Yay, none there....guess everyone getting one wants to keep them....dammit!

There are 10 of these posters currently for sale on eBay, $25 each plus postage.. eBay item number: 132711952401

ReesesPieces

That marvel poster is the best lego poster I have seen.  This is one poster that I would frame and put up in the basement...but not for $25. 

Russell844

I have a friend that has supposedly secured one of each poster for me.

vwong19

Based on known eBay sale prices including shipping as of 7/21 5a PST 
Median, (Lo-Hi), # sold
$179 ($135-342) n=69, Black Lightning, distributed 7/20
$292 ($200-400) n=62, Deadpool, distributed 7/21
$160 ($149-215) n=28, Unikitty, distributed 7/22

The sales report doesn't include Best offer accepted sales.

Raw Data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16LRsWAvY_TAoVBx6zQi1Qeahu3IidcFtgquQtxpFWTA/edit#gid=0

vwong19

2018 SDCC Lego Minifigure Exclusives Price Guide
Based on known eBay sale prices including shipping as of 7/23 6a PST 
Median Sold, (Lo-Hi), # Sold, Figure, # Unsold
----------------------------------------
$163 ($115-342) n=146, Black Lightning, 125
$284 ($200-400) n=127, Deadpool, 154
$155 ($100-215) n=66, Unikitty, 128

The sales report doesn't include Best offer accepted sales.

Raw Data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16LRsWAvY_TAoVBx6zQi1Qeahu3IidcFtgquQtxpFWTA/edit#gid=0

VorpalRyu

Got an Ant-Man set, just now trying for a Deadpool minifigure, fingers crossed I don't get any more challengers on the one I'm currently winning.

vwong19

VorpalRyu said:

Got an Ant-Man set, just now trying for a Deadpool minifigure, fingers crossed I don't get any more challengers on the one I'm currently winning.

^ what is your price? I’m wondering who I am competing as well on eBay for Deadpool this year. Good luck with your bidding... prices are trending down still.

VorpalRyu

@vwong19 as low as I can possibly manage, but I'm suspecting that I might have to go higher than I got my Deadpool Duck for last year (US$230). Just annoyed that eBay's global shipping program is trying to stick me for "import fees," when the fact is, it's still no fees for importing under AU$1,000, even if I did get import fees, I'm the one who will get the letter from Customs with an invoice.

Fireheart

How many of the Deadpool and Black lightning figures are sold in the lottery system? And is it the same each year?

I noticed that the other LEGO exclusive sets; Aquaman is #/1500, AntMan is #/1500, and Solo MF was #/3000. 

husky96

Wasn't it like 2000 minifigures? I heard different stories that people left the minifigure line because of how slow the process was. I'm in the process of reviewing the offers on eBay too and hope prices continue to drop. 

And on another site, rumors were that LEGO was offering people who won the Sunday sets, that they could buy another set that wasn't picked up on Fri/Sat.

husky96

@vwong19 Based on the new giveaway format at SDCC, do you feel like there are more or less minifigs on eBay vs last year? I actually was expecting more to flood the market.

vwong19

@husky96 - I expect the same. There have been more pre orders this year. There should be more from people who are returning from their trip the next 2 weeks. 

It it was true that on Sunday, there were many unclaimed sets that were sold to Sunday buyers. They also handed out the unclaimed minifigures Sunday afternoon to whoever was around at their unannounced location and time.

Pitfall69

I will suggest that you contact your seller before he/she mails you an item. I had to cancel an order because the bubble was dented. Alot these sellers have snapped crappy pictures of the minifigures and it is hard to tell if the item is damaged or not. 

vwong19

Cases of Unikitty being handed out to lucky attendees Sunday. I think there were 20+ cases with about 50 in each. Could be more I don’t know...

SumoLego

Yes, please!

77ncaachamps

vwong19 said:

@husky96 - I expect the same. There have been more pre orders this year. There should be more from people who are returning from their trip the next 2 weeks. 

It it was true that on Sunday, there were many unclaimed sets that were sold to Sunday buyers. They also handed out the unclaimed minifigures Sunday afternoon to whoever was around at their unannounced location and time.

Sign of bad minifig choices, overproduction, a potential recession or a mix of any of them?

vwong19

@77ncaachamps - I believe it was poor processing by the Lego staff. It took 2-3 hours of waiting in line to buy the first few days and some people didn’t want to wait even though they had won. Sunday was probably a result of some people traveling and a weak minifigure. The online pre-convention raffle on exclusives allowed attendees win without much initial effort. When there was effort to claim their prize, they probably didn’t want to put in the time.

husky96

Agreed with @vwong19. I was upstairs trying to trade my 2017 minifigs for this years and there was 1 person with all of the names of the winners that was being marked off on an Excel spreadsheet. They should've had 2 lines at least. And for juniors who don't have ID, I wonder how they were verified? 
My friend's won on Friday and they said they saw people leave because the wait was too long...probably not knowing the value of the minifig. It was nice to have more time at the Con, but I still want them. I just purchased Unikitty and it seems like the Black Lightning's can be had for under $120 Buy It Now.

vwong19

As expected Black Lightning and Unikitty prices have fallen significantly since they initially were revealed. Deadpool is much more popular and has sustained it's high price, following a similar trend as last year's Deadpool Duck, which currently is at $225. Black Lightning is comparable to 2017 SDCC Vixen, which is at $115.

2018 SDCC Lego Minifigure Exclusives Price Guide
Based on known eBay sale prices including shipping as of 7/24 5a PST 
Median Sold, (Lo-Hi), # Sold, Figure, # Unsold, Buy It Now Low
----------------------------------------
$156 ($80-342) n=176, Black Lightning, 209, $119
$280 ($200-400) n=144, Deadpool, 167, $253
$130 ($65-215) n=103, Unikitty, 159, $108

The sales report doesn't include Best offer accepted sales.

Raw Data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16LRsWAvY_TAoVBx6zQi1Qeahu3IidcFtgquQtxpFWTA/edit#gid=0

Pitfall69

So...Riddle me this? There are far less SDCC Exclusive minifigures made than there are Mr.Gold correct? Why then, is Mr. Gold worth so much more money? Other than being chrome gold, he isn't anything spectacular; at least the. SDCC minifigures are licenced.

Also, does your data include shipping costs? I saw one figure sell for cheaper than what I bought itfor, but it was almost $26 to ship.

SumoLego

Pitfall69 said:

Why then, is Mr. Gold worth so much more money?

(Because there is way more demand.  Most collectors can take a pass on Black Lightning or Cowboy Captain America.)

vwong19

The prices I report include shipping. Mr. Gold is over priced like Bitcoin in my opinion. Mr. Gold does have a global collecting appeal with more demand. Perhaps there have been many Mr Golds that have gotten into the hands of kids and have cut the supply in half or more.

vwong19

Lego SDCC figures are more easily attainable and predictable. Mr. Gold were scattered all over the world and discovery slowly trickled through a period of months. 

vwong19

If anyone is interested in the posters mentioned earlier, I was able to obtain a few more. I would be able to ship a set of 2 for $15 in poster tubes. I need to acquire some mailing tubes. I’d prefer not to mention this outside of this thread in case there is high demand. If someone across the pond wants to deal with distribution I can bundle some....

vwong19

Shipping posters outside the US is $14 so I’d have to ask for $25.

Kaitch

^^I have access to mailing tubes maybe every week, but I doubt it's financially viable to ship them to the US...

Gooker1

@husky96 I was probably competing with you trying to trade for the Cowboy Deadpool!!  I didn't try to trade for the Black lightning, b/c my friend traded me his for the uni-kitty my group won.

I was so gutted that we left early Sunday and missed out on the minifig giveaway and the sales of their exclusive sets.  I didn't want to sit in that traffic back to LA, but my friend said they didn't seem to have the Deadpool at all.  he said they had Black Lightning and Uni-Kitty.

The process was slow b/c they had to check names off a list...again, it's growing pains but they'll figure it out as these lotteries are sadly here to stay.  

And yes...just like others have mentioned, people each day were walking away from their free minifigs as they were not going to deal with the line.  Fri and Sat lines were down to the Marriott.  No idea how long the Sunday line was. 

I was fortunate enough to buy a DP for 120 and ended up buying the Ant-Man set for $120 just to get it over with.  I can imagine the ant-man will drop below a 100 before climbing again.

mattytreks

^^ The Sunday minifig lines were very much alive and well, also!  As they were on Fri/Sat, Sun extended back to the Marriott, not far from the Dragon Ball Tour area.

As others have mentioned, I too was able to purchase extra exclusive sets on Sunday around 1:30 – but only because I had children with me that day.  I had the option of purchasing all three sets, but I never really fancied Aquaman, so only got Ant-Man and Falcon.

as for the extra UniKitty minifigs given away on Sunday afternoon, I was at the booth at 2pm, but the fellow in the blue shirt refused to hand them out there.  And rightly so...that would have created stampede conditions.

We left, but I never did find out how and when they distributed those minifigures.  Did they announce the distribution location at all, beforehand?  Or did they literally just set up shop in the back of Sails at a random time and let word of mouth spread the news?

Gooker1

mattytreks said:

We left, but I never did find out how and when they distributed those minifigures.  Did they announce the distribution location at all, beforehand?  Or did they literally just set up shop in the back of Sails at a random time and let word of mouth spread the news?

My friends said word of mouth got them up there.  Kinda like how word of mouth got the funimation line up at the sails on Thursday. lol

husky96

Congrats @Gooker1 for getting DP for 120! I bought Unikitty for $113 and Black Lightning for $122. I'm still working on getting DP.

Gooker1

Just fortunate I ran across a guy who didn't want to wait inline for his figure. lol

vwong19

Prices have leveled off the past few days. Deadpool is much more popular and has sustained it's high price. The prices may continue to drop as reflected by the lower Buy It Now Prices, but supply is decreasing for Black Lightning and Deadpool. Unikitty supply is still high so expect that to drop.

2018 SDCC Lego Minifigure Exclusives Price Guide
Based on known eBay sale prices including shipping as of 7/28 8a PST 
5d Avg, (Lo-Hi), # Sold, Figure, # Unsold, Buy It Now Low
----------------------------------------
$119 ($80-342) n=262, Black Lightning, 141, $109
$258 ($170-400) n=218, Deadpool, 142, $243.50
$99 ($65-215) n=165, Unikitty, 170, $93.50

The sales report doesn't include Best offer accepted sales or lot sales, which accounts for probably 25% of the sales that I tabulated.

Raw Data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16LRsWAvY_TAoVBx6zQi1Qeahu3IidcFtgquQtxpFWTA/edit#gid=0

kbw

Stupid question: do these minifigs tend to increase in price over time or do values tend to level off early and stay relatively constant?  I realize it depends on the figure but just curious if there’s a general pattern

vwong19

I know the prices of the older pre-2015 figures have gone up in value. SDCC 2013 was unique and extremely exclusive (i.e. 200-400 vs 1000+) which has caused the prices to be $1-2k/ea on the four figures given out that year. I think that after the figures level off, they do increase slowly in value because the supply drops after the conclusion of the convention. I didn't follow the sales of past SDCC figures as closely as I did this year, but it will be interesting to see how the 2018 figures fluctuate in the future. 

mattytreks

I am committed to getting just one of the 2013 exclusive minifigures into my collection, preferably Black Suit Superman.  I will continue to accumulate enough extra SDCC exclusive items to either trade for or buy one.

By far, the most valuable post-2013 SDCC minifigure is the 2014 Zur-en-arrh Batman, and with good reason...it’s Batman.  That is followed by the 2014 The Collector.  After those two, it’s a toss-up.

On a side note, the last post-2013 minifigure I need to complete my collection is the 2015 Sam Wilson Captain America – so if anyone is selling or willing to trade him, feel free to DM me.  I happened to get an extra Black Lightning via trade this year, so I’ve got that in case anyone is interested in a trade.

Overall, I give LEGO a grade of A minus for SDCC 2018.  They absolutely knocked it out of the park with their exclusive minifigures, sets, and posters.  On top of that, they had signed Voltron sets, interesting panels, and totally awesome interactive booth features like the life-sized Falcon Cockpit and minifigure clamshell package photo props that people could pose inside of.  However...they must address the minifigure distribution system.  If you win one, you should NOT have to wait four hours just to collect it.  They need multiple lines of distribution for each day, AND they should also allow attendees to pick up any mimifigure on any day – not just a single day.

kbw

My brother-in-law lives near SD. We have visited him the past 2 years and probably will next year. How hard is it to get in to SDCC and get the figures?

mattytreks

kbw said:

My brother-in-law lives near SD. We have visited him the past 2 years and probably will next year. How hard is it to get in to SDCC and get the figures?

Its a lottery system to get a badge, and if you win that lottery, you then have a subsequent lottery to win one of the minifigures.  The odds are very much stacked against any one individual hoping to win one.

That said, your chances of getting a minifigure are 100% if you’re willing to buy or trade for one on the aftermarket.

kbw

welp

kbw

I appreciate the info, btw 

mattytreks

kbw said:

I appreciate the info, btw 

Very welcome!

Pitfall69

This really sucks. I really overpaid for my Black Lightning. I mean, there are a lot of people that really overpaid, but I definitely did based on that data. Although, I saw quite a few Deadpool and BL minifigures that had damaged bubbles/packaging, so I wonder if the lower prices were because of that? 

mattytreks

Pitfall69 said:

This really sucks. I really overpaid for my Black Lightning. I mean, there are a lot of people that really overpaid, but I definitely did based on that data. Although, I saw quite a few Deadpool and BL minifigures that had damaged bubbles/packaging, so I wonder if the lower prices were because of that? 

We all have our horror stories pursuing LEGO on the aftermarket, so let’s hear it!  How much did you splurge to get Black Lightning?

If it makes you feel any better, I paid $180 for Vixen last year :/

Pitfall69

$166

mattytreks

Pitfall69 said:

$166

Meh, that’s not too bad.

I feel particularly sorry for the eBay buyers that fell prey to the SDCC 2018 “pre-sales” of Black Lightning and Sheriffpool – folks who ponied up $250 and $350, respectively.  Yikes.

Pitfall69

I do have 3 SDCC Minifigures that I don't think I overpaid based on what they are worth today, but when I bought them I thought I did. Maybe Black Lightning will appreciate just a little bit and settle in the $150-60 range, so I don't feel so bad. The 3 SDCC that I bought were: The Collector, Batman of Zur-En-Arrh and Sam Wilson/Captain America.

mattytreks

Pitfall69 said:

I do have 3 SDCC Minifigures that I don't think I overpaid based on what they are worth today, but when I bought them I thought I did. Maybe Black Lightning will appreciate just a little bit and settle in the $150-60 range, so I don't feel so bad. The 3 SDCC that I bought were: The Collector, Batman of Zur-En-Arrh and Sam Wilson/Captain America.

That’s a nice collection!  Let me know if you’re interested in selling Sam :)

Pitfall69

I haven't decided whether I want to keep these guys or not. I'm kinda behind in collecting SDCC Minifigures, so I might just get rid of them. 

vwong19

I hope the price data will be useful in the future to assist people of the price trend which seems to happen every year after SDCC. I think the bubble condition shouldn’t factor too much in the overall pricing of the set. After all the bubble packaging is not sealed and can be swapped with another less valuable figure (I.e. bionicle mask or Unikitty).

SumoLego

vwong19 said:

...be swapped with another less valuable figure (I.e. bionicle mask or Unikitty).

How dare you, sir!!!  Oh, wait.  The Bionicle mask is worth nothing.

Pitfall69 said:

...so I might just get rid of them...

I can assure you, it will be absolutely safe here in my collection.

Kaitch

Hey Pitfall69 if you do decide to them, drop me a PM?