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SDCC 2018 LEGO Minifigure Predictions

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  • FireheartFireheart Suffolk, UKMember Posts: 535
    VorpalRyu said:
    Love that Marvel poster, wonder how much they're going for on eBay...


    *edit* Yay, none there....guess everyone getting one wants to keep them....dammit!
    There are 10 of these posters currently for sale on eBay, $25 each plus postage.. eBay item number: 132711952401


  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 862
    That marvel poster is the best lego poster I have seen.  This is one poster that I would frame and put up in the basement...but not for $25. 
    SumoLegoPitfall69
  • Russell844Russell844 California, USAMember Posts: 1,874
    I have a friend that has supposedly secured one of each poster for me.
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,179
    Based on known eBay sale prices including shipping as of 7/21 5a PST 
    Median, (Lo-Hi), # sold
    $179 ($135-342) n=69, Black Lightning, distributed 7/20
    $292 ($200-400) n=62, Deadpool, distributed 7/21
    $160 ($149-215) n=28, Unikitty, distributed 7/22

    The sales report doesn't include Best offer accepted sales.

    Raw Data:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16LRsWAvY_TAoVBx6zQi1Qeahu3IidcFtgquQtxpFWTA/edit#gid=0
    FirehearttomahawkerPitfall69
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,179
    2018 SDCC Lego Minifigure Exclusives Price Guide
    Based on known eBay sale prices including shipping as of 7/23 6a PST 
    Median Sold, (Lo-Hi), # Sold, Figure, # Unsold
    ----------------------------------------
    $163 ($115-342) n=146, Black Lightning, 125
    $284 ($200-400) n=127, Deadpool, 154
    $155 ($100-215) n=66, Unikitty, 128

    The sales report doesn't include Best offer accepted sales.

    Raw Data:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16LRsWAvY_TAoVBx6zQi1Qeahu3IidcFtgquQtxpFWTA/edit#gid=0
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,303
    edited July 2018
    Got an Ant-Man set, just now trying for a Deadpool minifigure, fingers crossed I don't get any more challengers on the one I'm currently winning.
    xiahna
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,179
    VorpalRyu said:
    Got an Ant-Man set, just now trying for a Deadpool minifigure, fingers crossed I don't get any more challengers on the one I'm currently winning.
    ^ what is your price? I’m wondering who I am competing as well on eBay for Deadpool this year. Good luck with your bidding... prices are trending down still.
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,303
    @vwong19 as low as I can possibly manage, but I'm suspecting that I might have to go higher than I got my Deadpool Duck for last year (US$230). Just annoyed that eBay's global shipping program is trying to stick me for "import fees," when the fact is, it's still no fees for importing under AU$1,000, even if I did get import fees, I'm the one who will get the letter from Customs with an invoice.
    Baby_Yodaxiahna
  • FireheartFireheart Suffolk, UKMember Posts: 535
    How many of the Deadpool and Black lightning figures are sold in the lottery system? And is it the same each year?

    I noticed that the other LEGO exclusive sets; Aquaman is #/1500, AntMan is #/1500, and Solo MF was #/3000. 
  • husky96husky96 Member Posts: 46
    Wasn't it like 2000 minifigures? I heard different stories that people left the minifigure line because of how slow the process was. I'm in the process of reviewing the offers on eBay too and hope prices continue to drop. 

    And on another site, rumors were that LEGO was offering people who won the Sunday sets, that they could buy another set that wasn't picked up on Fri/Sat.
  • husky96husky96 Member Posts: 46
    @vwong19 Based on the new giveaway format at SDCC, do you feel like there are more or less minifigs on eBay vs last year? I actually was expecting more to flood the market.
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,179
    @husky96 - I expect the same. There have been more pre orders this year. There should be more from people who are returning from their trip the next 2 weeks. 

    It it was true that on Sunday, there were many unclaimed sets that were sold to Sunday buyers. They also handed out the unclaimed minifigures Sunday afternoon to whoever was around at their unannounced location and time.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401
    I will suggest that you contact your seller before he/she mails you an item. I had to cancel an order because the bubble was dented. Alot these sellers have snapped crappy pictures of the minifigures and it is hard to tell if the item is damaged or not. 
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,179

    Cases of Unikitty being handed out to lucky attendees Sunday. I think there were 20+ cases with about 50 in each. Could be more I don’t know...
    SumoLegomattytreksstluxBaby_Yoda
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,400
    Yes, please!
  • 77ncaachamps77ncaachamps Aspiring Time Traveler Stuck in the West (US)Member Posts: 2,440
    vwong19 said:
    @husky96 - I expect the same. There have been more pre orders this year. There should be more from people who are returning from their trip the next 2 weeks. 

    It it was true that on Sunday, there were many unclaimed sets that were sold to Sunday buyers. They also handed out the unclaimed minifigures Sunday afternoon to whoever was around at their unannounced location and time.
    Sign of bad minifig choices, overproduction, a potential recession or a mix of any of them?
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,179
    @77ncaachamps - I believe it was poor processing by the Lego staff. It took 2-3 hours of waiting in line to buy the first few days and some people didn’t want to wait even though they had won. Sunday was probably a result of some people traveling and a weak minifigure. The online pre-convention raffle on exclusives allowed attendees win without much initial effort. When there was effort to claim their prize, they probably didn’t want to put in the time.
    stlux77ncaachamps
  • husky96husky96 Member Posts: 46
    Agreed with @vwong19. I was upstairs trying to trade my 2017 minifigs for this years and there was 1 person with all of the names of the winners that was being marked off on an Excel spreadsheet. They should've had 2 lines at least. And for juniors who don't have ID, I wonder how they were verified? 
    My friend's won on Friday and they said they saw people leave because the wait was too long...probably not knowing the value of the minifig. It was nice to have more time at the Con, but I still want them. I just purchased Unikitty and it seems like the Black Lightning's can be had for under $120 Buy It Now.
    77ncaachampsvwong19
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,179
    As expected Black Lightning and Unikitty prices have fallen significantly since they initially were revealed. Deadpool is much more popular and has sustained it's high price, following a similar trend as last year's Deadpool Duck, which currently is at $225. Black Lightning is comparable to 2017 SDCC Vixen, which is at $115.

    2018 SDCC Lego Minifigure Exclusives Price Guide
    Based on known eBay sale prices including shipping as of 7/24 5a PST 
    Median Sold, (Lo-Hi), # Sold, Figure, # Unsold, Buy It Now Low
    ----------------------------------------
    $156 ($80-342) n=176, Black Lightning, 209, $119
    $280 ($200-400) n=144, Deadpool, 167, $253
    $130 ($65-215) n=103, Unikitty, 159, $108

    The sales report doesn't include Best offer accepted sales.

    Raw Data:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16LRsWAvY_TAoVBx6zQi1Qeahu3IidcFtgquQtxpFWTA/edit#gid=0
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401
    edited July 2018
    So...Riddle me this? There are far less SDCC Exclusive minifigures made than there are Mr.Gold correct? Why then, is Mr. Gold worth so much more money? Other than being chrome gold, he isn't anything spectacular; at least the. SDCC minifigures are licenced.

    Also, does your data include shipping costs? I saw one figure sell for cheaper than what I bought itfor, but it was almost $26 to ship.
    SumoLego
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,400
    Pitfall69 said:
    Why then, is Mr. Gold worth so much more money?
    (Because there is way more demand.  Most collectors can take a pass on Black Lightning or Cowboy Captain America.)
    pharmjodmadforLEGO
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,179
    The prices I report include shipping. Mr. Gold is over priced like Bitcoin in my opinion. Mr. Gold does have a global collecting appeal with more demand. Perhaps there have been many Mr Golds that have gotten into the hands of kids and have cut the supply in half or more.
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,179
    Lego SDCC figures are more easily attainable and predictable. Mr. Gold were scattered all over the world and discovery slowly trickled through a period of months. 
    Lyichir
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,179
    If anyone is interested in the posters mentioned earlier, I was able to obtain a few more. I would be able to ship a set of 2 for $15 in poster tubes. I need to acquire some mailing tubes. I’d prefer not to mention this outside of this thread in case there is high demand. If someone across the pond wants to deal with distribution I can bundle some....
    SumoLegoReesesPiecesPitfall69pharmjod
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,179
    Shipping posters outside the US is $14 so I’d have to ask for $25.
    Pitfall69
  • KaitchKaitch N. IrelandMember Posts: 384
    ^^I have access to mailing tubes maybe every week, but I doubt it's financially viable to ship them to the US...
  • Gooker1Gooker1 Member Posts: 598
    @husky96 I was probably competing with you trying to trade for the Cowboy Deadpool!!  I didn't try to trade for the Black lightning, b/c my friend traded me his for the uni-kitty my group won.

    I was so gutted that we left early Sunday and missed out on the minifig giveaway and the sales of their exclusive sets.  I didn't want to sit in that traffic back to LA, but my friend said they didn't seem to have the Deadpool at all.  he said they had Black Lightning and Uni-Kitty.

    The process was slow b/c they had to check names off a list...again, it's growing pains but they'll figure it out as these lotteries are sadly here to stay.  

    And yes...just like others have mentioned, people each day were walking away from their free minifigs as they were not going to deal with the line.  Fri and Sat lines were down to the Marriott.  No idea how long the Sunday line was. 

    I was fortunate enough to buy a DP for 120 and ended up buying the Ant-Man set for $120 just to get it over with.  I can imagine the ant-man will drop below a 100 before climbing again.
  • mattytreksmattytreks San Diego, CAMember Posts: 148
    ^^ The Sunday minifig lines were very much alive and well, also!  As they were on Fri/Sat, Sun extended back to the Marriott, not far from the Dragon Ball Tour area.

    As others have mentioned, I too was able to purchase extra exclusive sets on Sunday around 1:30 – but only because I had children with me that day.  I had the option of purchasing all three sets, but I never really fancied Aquaman, so only got Ant-Man and Falcon.

    as for the extra UniKitty minifigs given away on Sunday afternoon, I was at the booth at 2pm, but the fellow in the blue shirt refused to hand them out there.  And rightly so...that would have created stampede conditions.

    We left, but I never did find out how and when they distributed those minifigures.  Did they announce the distribution location at all, beforehand?  Or did they literally just set up shop in the back of Sails at a random time and let word of mouth spread the news?
  • Gooker1Gooker1 Member Posts: 598

    We left, but I never did find out how and when they distributed those minifigures.  Did they announce the distribution location at all, beforehand?  Or did they literally just set up shop in the back of Sails at a random time and let word of mouth spread the news?



    My friends said word of mouth got them up there.  Kinda like how word of mouth got the funimation line up at the sails on Thursday. lol
  • husky96husky96 Member Posts: 46
    Congrats @Gooker1 for getting DP for 120! I bought Unikitty for $113 and Black Lightning for $122. I'm still working on getting DP.
  • Gooker1Gooker1 Member Posts: 598
    Just fortunate I ran across a guy who didn't want to wait inline for his figure. lol
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,179
    Prices have leveled off the past few days. Deadpool is much more popular and has sustained it's high price. The prices may continue to drop as reflected by the lower Buy It Now Prices, but supply is decreasing for Black Lightning and Deadpool. Unikitty supply is still high so expect that to drop.

    2018 SDCC Lego Minifigure Exclusives Price Guide
    Based on known eBay sale prices including shipping as of 7/28 8a PST 
    5d Avg, (Lo-Hi), # Sold, Figure, # Unsold, Buy It Now Low
    ----------------------------------------
    $119 ($80-342) n=262, Black Lightning, 141, $109
    $258 ($170-400) n=218, Deadpool, 142, $243.50
    $99 ($65-215) n=165, Unikitty, 170, $93.50

    The sales report doesn't include Best offer accepted sales or lot sales, which accounts for probably 25% of the sales that I tabulated.

    Raw Data:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16LRsWAvY_TAoVBx6zQi1Qeahu3IidcFtgquQtxpFWTA/edit#gid=0
  • kbwkbw NCMember Posts: 402
    edited July 2018
    Stupid question: do these minifigs tend to increase in price over time or do values tend to level off early and stay relatively constant?  I realize it depends on the figure but just curious if there’s a general pattern
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,179
    I know the prices of the older pre-2015 figures have gone up in value. SDCC 2013 was unique and extremely exclusive (i.e. 200-400 vs 1000+) which has caused the prices to be $1-2k/ea on the four figures given out that year. I think that after the figures level off, they do increase slowly in value because the supply drops after the conclusion of the convention. I didn't follow the sales of past SDCC figures as closely as I did this year, but it will be interesting to see how the 2018 figures fluctuate in the future. 
    kbw
  • mattytreksmattytreks San Diego, CAMember Posts: 148
    I am committed to getting just one of the 2013 exclusive minifigures into my collection, preferably Black Suit Superman.  I will continue to accumulate enough extra SDCC exclusive items to either trade for or buy one.

    By far, the most valuable post-2013 SDCC minifigure is the 2014 Zur-en-arrh Batman, and with good reason...it’s Batman.  That is followed by the 2014 The Collector.  After those two, it’s a toss-up.

    On a side note, the last post-2013 minifigure I need to complete my collection is the 2015 Sam Wilson Captain America – so if anyone is selling or willing to trade him, feel free to DM me.  I happened to get an extra Black Lightning via trade this year, so I’ve got that in case anyone is interested in a trade.

    Overall, I give LEGO a grade of A minus for SDCC 2018.  They absolutely knocked it out of the park with their exclusive minifigures, sets, and posters.  On top of that, they had signed Voltron sets, interesting panels, and totally awesome interactive booth features like the life-sized Falcon Cockpit and minifigure clamshell package photo props that people could pose inside of.  However...they must address the minifigure distribution system.  If you win one, you should NOT have to wait four hours just to collect it.  They need multiple lines of distribution for each day, AND they should also allow attendees to pick up any mimifigure on any day – not just a single day.
  • kbwkbw NCMember Posts: 402
    My brother-in-law lives near SD. We have visited him the past 2 years and probably will next year. How hard is it to get in to SDCC and get the figures?
  • mattytreksmattytreks San Diego, CAMember Posts: 148
    kbw said:
    My brother-in-law lives near SD. We have visited him the past 2 years and probably will next year. How hard is it to get in to SDCC and get the figures?
    Its a lottery system to get a badge, and if you win that lottery, you then have a subsequent lottery to win one of the minifigures.  The odds are very much stacked against any one individual hoping to win one.

    That said, your chances of getting a minifigure are 100% if you’re willing to buy or trade for one on the aftermarket.
  • kbwkbw NCMember Posts: 402
    welp
  • kbwkbw NCMember Posts: 402
    I appreciate the info, btw 
    mattytreks
  • mattytreksmattytreks San Diego, CAMember Posts: 148
    kbw said:
    I appreciate the info, btw 
    Very welcome!
    kbw
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401
    This really sucks. I really overpaid for my Black Lightning. I mean, there are a lot of people that really overpaid, but I definitely did based on that data. Although, I saw quite a few Deadpool and BL minifigures that had damaged bubbles/packaging, so I wonder if the lower prices were because of that? 
  • mattytreksmattytreks San Diego, CAMember Posts: 148
    Pitfall69 said:
    This really sucks. I really overpaid for my Black Lightning. I mean, there are a lot of people that really overpaid, but I definitely did based on that data. Although, I saw quite a few Deadpool and BL minifigures that had damaged bubbles/packaging, so I wonder if the lower prices were because of that? 
    We all have our horror stories pursuing LEGO on the aftermarket, so let’s hear it!  How much did you splurge to get Black Lightning?

    If it makes you feel any better, I paid $180 for Vixen last year :/
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401
    $166
  • mattytreksmattytreks San Diego, CAMember Posts: 148
    Pitfall69 said:
    $166
    Meh, that’s not too bad.

    I feel particularly sorry for the eBay buyers that fell prey to the SDCC 2018 “pre-sales” of Black Lightning and Sheriffpool – folks who ponied up $250 and $350, respectively.  Yikes.
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401
    I do have 3 SDCC Minifigures that I don't think I overpaid based on what they are worth today, but when I bought them I thought I did. Maybe Black Lightning will appreciate just a little bit and settle in the $150-60 range, so I don't feel so bad. The 3 SDCC that I bought were: The Collector, Batman of Zur-En-Arrh and Sam Wilson/Captain America.
    FowlerBricksSumoLegokbw
  • mattytreksmattytreks San Diego, CAMember Posts: 148
    Pitfall69 said:
    I do have 3 SDCC Minifigures that I don't think I overpaid based on what they are worth today, but when I bought them I thought I did. Maybe Black Lightning will appreciate just a little bit and settle in the $150-60 range, so I don't feel so bad. The 3 SDCC that I bought were: The Collector, Batman of Zur-En-Arrh and Sam Wilson/Captain America.
    That’s a nice collection!  Let me know if you’re interested in selling Sam :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401
    I haven't decided whether I want to keep these guys or not. I'm kinda behind in collecting SDCC Minifigures, so I might just get rid of them. 
    SumoLego
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,179
    I hope the price data will be useful in the future to assist people of the price trend which seems to happen every year after SDCC. I think the bubble condition shouldn’t factor too much in the overall pricing of the set. After all the bubble packaging is not sealed and can be swapped with another less valuable figure (I.e. bionicle mask or Unikitty).
    SumoLegoFireheartkbw
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,400
    edited July 2018
    vwong19 said:
    ...be swapped with another less valuable figure (I.e. bionicle mask or Unikitty).
    How dare you, sir!!!  Oh, wait.  The Bionicle mask is worth nothing.
    Pitfall69 said:
    ...so I might just get rid of them...
    I can assure you, it will be absolutely safe here in my collection.
    vwong19
  • KaitchKaitch N. IrelandMember Posts: 384
    Hey Pitfall69 if you do decide to them, drop me a PM?
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