SDCC 2018 LEGO Minifigure Predictions

mattytreks

Wow.  I won the Millennium Falcon Cockpit.

Looks like I'll have to pay the piper for the Ant-Man Bust as well as the Marvel/DC Minifigures.

Kaitch

At least you're local.

Pitfall69

neomonkey said:

The drawing for SDCC exclusives is completed. People should know what they've won now so more eBay listings will start showing up.

That may be true, but most of the listings for the Deadpool minifigure came out the day the minifigure was officially revealed. 

Also, these people assume the minifigures will be in good condition, but I see quite of few of the bubbles dented or pushed in somehow. I wouldn't bid on anything if it isn't in hand and I can't see the actual item they are selling.

Pitfall69

vwong19 said:

I was not chosen for any exclusives, but will be watching the eBay market closely like everyone else. Checking with my network to see what the success rate is within my small sample size.

That sucks. I'm sorry. Maybe you can score one from someone at the Comic Con. No Ebay or PayPal fees and on the spot, just use PayPal or a bank transfer app. A popular app here is Cash app; they are part of Square and we use Square for our business. 

vwong19

@Pitfall69 - SDCC has been good to me in the past, so this is no big deal. I still remember the horror of 2013, when basically everyone was shutout and I went to eBay for all 4. I've contemplated asking people in the past, but it gets weird to negotiate with strangers. There are a lot of people around the booth hanging out like hawks. People have asked me in the past when I won and I didn't want to sell since I collect them. Some people overestimate the value of these figures or become attached after they win. There are definitely a lot of people making low ball offers.

I guess the selection process hasn't been a complete failure. One friend was confirmed for UNIKITTY and my brother was confirmed for the AQUAMAN set. I don't care for either, but at least the chances weren't astronomical.

I get 4 hours more each day at Comic Con this year where I don't have to wait at the LEGO line. Yay.

mattytreks

vwong19 said:

I get 4 hours more each day at Comic Con this year where I don't have to wait at the LEGO line. Yay.

The question I've been asking myself since they announced the procedural changes is, what will I do with this free time now?!?

Enjoy myself, and casually stroll the exhibit hall floor from end to end -- something I haven't done nearly enough of over the years.  I'm always either in a line, or rushing off to somewhere in a mad dash.

Fireheart

Are we still expecting SDCC Brickheadz this year? 

mattytreks

Fireheart said:

Are we still expecting SDCC Brickheadz this year? 

Not only are we not expecting them, it’s now an absolute certainty there won’t be any.

iBart

I didn't get anything from lottery. Devastating news. Now I'm looking at all those happy people on eBay. 6K miles for nothing. TT

Fireheart

mattytreks said:

Fireheart said:

Are we still expecting SDCC Brickheadz this year? 

Not only are we not expecting them, it’s now an absolute certainty there won’t be any.

Didn’t realise that we were not expecting them.. is that it then for SDCC Brickheadz? Or is it usual for exclusive products lines to take a break, and come back in later years? 

mh3490

I for one am fine with no sdcc brickheadz this year that means I got more money for other things 

Gooker1

Fireheart said:

mattytreks said:

Fireheart said:

Are we still expecting SDCC Brickheadz this year? 

Not only are we not expecting them, it’s now an absolute certainty there won’t be any.

Didn’t realise that we were not expecting them.. is that it then for SDCC Brickheadz? Or is it usual for exclusive products lines to take a break, and come back in later years? 

I don't know if it's usual, but it has become the norm that they'll do a series of stuff for a few years then change it up.  We were getting the microfighters for a good while w/ SW, but that switched to the mini stuff for a couple years to this.

husky96

My family got denied all LEGO drawings too. I'm hoping I can trade past collectibles but the way SDCC is doing it this year, I have a feeling that most people who won the drawing, will be selling on ebay or wanting way too much.

VorpalRyu

Wondering if there will be a temporary dip in prices as has been previous years, or are we thinking the changes to distribution will negate it.

vwong19

Average/SD of known eBay sale prices including shipping as of 7/17 
$208/42 (n=13) for Black Lightning (distributed 7/20)
$293/42 (n=32) for Deadpool (distributed 7/21)
$179/22 (n=8) for Unikitty (distributed 7/22)

The prices are trending down.

dmcc0

^ Assuming Average is the average selling price, but can you explain what "SD" and the "n" value represent please? Apologies if it's obvious!

vwong19

SD is standard deviation and n= is the number of sales

Gooker1

what's the range, mode and median? :)

jmeninno

Gaussian distribution, I presume?  Can't be Poisson as the mean is equal to the std....

husky96

I noticed prices weren't that "high" either. I'm hoping to swap out a Deadpool for the Deadpool Duck from last year and I have an extra Vixen and Unikitty from a few years back if other people who won the drawing are fellow collectors.
Like others have said, it will be weird to have all this extra time from not waking up early for the raffle draw and hours for the minifig.

SumoLego

jmeninno said:

...[c]an't be Poisson...

It's fishy.

vwong19

The median price is a better indicator due to some high outliers.

Based on known eBay sale prices including shipping as of 7/18 3p PST 
Median, (Lo-Hi), # sold
$196 ($175-342) n=16, Black Lightning, distributed 7/20
$278 ($249-400) n=34, Deadpool (distributed 7/21)
$175 ($150-215) n=12, Unikitty (distributed 7/22)

The prices are trending down. The sales report doesn't include Best offer accepted sales.

VorpalRyu

@vwong19, is the same true for the sets?

vwong19

Based on known eBay sale prices including shipping as of 7/19 6a PST 
Median, (Lo-Hi), # sold
$185 ($158-342) n=24, Black Lightning, distributed 7/20
$280 ($249-400) n=37, Deadpool (distributed 7/21)
$171 ($150-215) n=15, Unikitty (distributed 7/22)

Black Lightning are trending down. The sales report doesn't include Best offer accepted sales.

@VorpalRyu, I believe the sets are trending down, but I haven't been following them closely since I don't plan to collect them. The sets also cost $40 and are probably more costly to ship.

Be interesting to see how the market will react tomorrow when the first figure actually gets into people's hands. Supply should increase and drive the price down, although many sellers may set prices based on recent sale prices so it will take at least a week for that to work itself out. Sellers will be wise to sell quickly at slightly below current prices. Buyers should be patient, especially those wanting Black Lightning or Unikitty. Deadpool should drop, but I don't expect it to dip below $200... hopefully I am proved wrong.

TyresOFlaherty

For what it's worth, I scored a Unikitty for $155. I hate as an eBay seller that it automatically puts "Best Offer" on things I'm selling, but as a buyer, sometimes it works out! 

Best of luck to everyone trying to score one of these damn things. Curse you, exclusives!

pharmjod

@TyresOFlaherty I'm not sure why it would automatically put or best offer on your listings. None of mine say that unless I check the box. Do you have it set as a default?

TyresOFlaherty

@pharmjod No, but when I was selling stuff last month, I would leave that box unchecked, and then eBay would "help me out" by later adding the Best Offer feature automatically, despite me leaving the box unchecked. It doesn't always do it, but when it does, it's super obnoxious.

(Here's a link to a discussion about it)

Seems they do it if you're a new-ish seller, or if you are selling something above what eBay thinks you should be selling it for.

CCC

Aren't the pre-sales a bit of a scam anyway? I've previously seen sellers sell multiple of the same item, through BINs and auctions. If they get one, I assume they keep the highest sale then cancel the lower ones. So those low value pre-sales might not be sales if the seller does get hold of one and decides that they can get a higher price.

Kaitch

Out of curiosity, what do folks think the response would be if TLG made more of the exclusives? As I understand it, they'd sell pretty much all they made, so the only real impact would be on the after-market. I can't imagine they'd be less popular if there were twice as many.

Kaitch

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/123258950410?ul_noapp=true

Am I missing something?

Pitfall69

^Peaple who see the Lego Aquman Movie at SDCC will get the Jessica Cruz figure. I dont think it is a SDCC EXCLUSIVE, you will get the same figure with the DVD and Blu-Ray.

husky96

Thanks for the info Pitfall. I was planning on going to the panel on Sunday for the minifig, but maybe I'll just buy the DVD instead.

vwong19

They also are giving away the Jessica Cruz polybag at the DC booth randomly.

Coolguy5000

Anyone else see the SDCC news? Clone wars is back!!!! #CloneWarsSaved 

https://youtu.be/RI7WyhWZkzk

stlux

And most important, with Ahsoka! Yay!

The_Rancor

The trailer isn't overly explanatory but I assume this is a new tv series in the offing rather than Clone Wars movie II. Kind of intriguing that they would do this when they were previously trying to hype this new upcoming anime style series - has it been chucked in the marketing bin or what? It's pretty (read: very) unusual for Disney to cave in to the fan's wishes.

Considering the Clone Wars goes on for so long, they always had a fairly big gap to fill so it'll be really interesting to see how Ahsoka reaches the stage we find her in Rebels - and (somewhat old spoiler) perhaps it might touch on how Rex and his buddies managed to bypass their control chips to survive and escape from having to execute Order 66.

More Dooku and Grievous I hope too, plus Mandalorians (and Maul). Interesting. Most interesting

gmonkey76

I heard it was only going to be 12 episodes, and it's going to be on Disney's streaming service.

Baby_Yoda

This is amazing. Can you imagine the sets that could come from this? I've been desperate for an easy way to get Jedi figs like Plo Koon and Kit Fisto since I'm starting up a Force and Destiny campaign and I want to use figures that can be customised by the players. Better still, can you imagine the prequel memes that could come from this?!

Russell844

Supposedly this is going to be season seven, which never aired after it was cancelled.

vwong19

Fyi. Lego booth was also handing these posters out. I didn’t know if these were previously available in print. 

SumoLego

I want one!!!

vwong19

I will try to get more, but they were stingy. One poster per. There was Dc Superman poster that my friend chose instead of Marvel.

Baby_Yoda

Time to whip out the fake glasses and nose disguise...

vwong19

Looks strange, but DC fans might appreciate this.

VorpalRyu

Love that Marvel poster, wonder how much they're going for on eBay...


*edit* Yay, none there....guess everyone getting one wants to keep them....dammit!

Fireheart

Are the Aquaman, Ant man, and Solo MF cockpit sets, released on different days during the event? Asking as only seen Aquaman sets so far “in hand” on eBay.

Fireheart

Fireheart said:

Are the Aquaman, Ant man, and Solo MF cockpit sets, released on different days during the event? Asking as only seen Aquaman sets so far “in hand” on eBay.

I’ll answer my own question :) 
Aquaman yesterday, MF today, etc.. :)

VorpalRyu

Thanks to the Brickfan, I have the instructions to all three SDCC sets & have decided against buying the Soylo MF cockpit, going to build a good old OT version instead.

Fireheart

^ I’m more interested in the packaging than the sets..

Fireheart

This is cool apparently on display in SDCC:

https://youtu.be/E3j8NXECBJ4