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It’s all a form of gambling; there’s no sure-thing.
Run up to Christmas it was always easy to shift stock. This past Christmas: nothing. At all.
The rise of the Chinese clones have certainly made a dent. I have seen super-hardcore Lego fans buying multiple Lepin sets for Christmas.
^^ Battle packs don't increase that much either these days, although it depends on the figures. I found they sell better as figures too. It's a good way to get lots of parts for MOCS for little / no money. But as set investments, I'm not so sure. Postage often kills profits on smaller sets (again a reason to sell the figures rather than the sets).
It has to have the right army building figures, and lego keep messing with the designs. They keep changing the stormtrooper ones and army builders often want uniformity across all their troops, so you need to pick the right version.
Plus have a fall back position in case it doesn't go well. Can you sell the minifigures to get back a substantial amount? Are there decent parts in case you need to part it out?
The glory days of reselling are well and gone. Thanks to sites like brickpicker you have too many yabbos wanting to make their millions in LEGO and have storage areas filled with sets, many of which will likely be misses, so really they are making nothing when you look really hard at it. Sorry, but when I see a LEGO set 'ticker' on a site, I think it is time to get what you can for what you have, and get out. Especially when I see there are now two LEGO reselling stores in my area.
My 'spending to hold' has gone WAYYYY down and only buying a very limited selection of sets. Heck, even mods are not doing a lot lately (Pet shop and Palace Cinema) because again everyone is hoarding.
As for used sets, most places people are well overpaying for LEGO lots, and you have to ask yourself if selling used LEGO per piece, like on sites like BL is worth doing it due to the labor involved (in driving all over to find 'cheap' lots to buy, cleaning said lots, organizing said lots, and then posting pieces up on sites like BL or brickowl)
Similar stacks of him and Zurgs. I've made phenomenal cash and trade return on Buzz while Zurg rots.
Personally, I no longer see LEGO as the investment vehicle it once was. Though I also find that a large part of my own involvement may have actually been justifying my involvement in the hobby. It's much easier to justify your hobby to grown ups when your hobby is bringing in a ridiculously high ROI compared to 'real life' investment vehicles.
As I no longer feel I have to justify what I enjoy to anyone, I've been MUCH more relaxed at the ebbs and flows of my LEGO 'portfolio'.
As someone who, by the end of the year will have seen a considerable K reduction in their collection value based on Rereleased Taj's, Snowspeeders and soon to be Y wings (and is quite comfortable with it) it's hard to recommend anything in the long term.
So far I haven't felt the need to jump in and try to beat the market on any of the rereleases. As far as my LEGO zen goes, my stack of Tower Bridges represents patience.
Another nail in the coffin of long term speculation.
Same goes for CMF:s. It's safe to say that the s18 policeman will become a collectors item, as will the Rocket Boy from s17. I sold one on on Ebay months ago for $10, but my starting price was $4.
Or maybe it's like 'deer' or 'moose', where many Buzz is the same spelling as a single Buzz.
Interestingly i was going to buy Cloud city but Lego are bringing out another one, do people think when they release another replica set this greatly affects the original set price?
As I see it, other than entire sets, the most valuable collector's items would be the figures and the instruction books. Maybe also specific pieces that only appeared in sets for a limited amount of time. I could be wrong, but if I had a ton of money and wanted to blow it on rare Legos, that's the route I'd take.
I actually think the HP Great Hall might help the value of many older sets. If HP expands to a boatload of sets, then you'd be correct, but that's not the case right now.
The leaked HP descriptions include both Aragog in the Dark Forest and Ford Anglia escape. Both sets would appear (albeit based on rumour and description alone) to be direct rereleases.
The only thing we should REALLY be surprised about is that it's taken them so long to do it! They've been doing it extremely successfully with Star Wars for the last fifteen years...