Investing in Lego?

romanstar

Ive spent loads of money on Lego over the years but its come to the point where i havent got much money to spend on sets now to build and ive decided to pool my money to invest in big sets so in a few years down the line they might be worth a bit, i probably wont sell them but i need to looking at the longer picture and just wondering what big sets would people buy to invest in. Thanks

Bumblepants

Oh boy do I have a thread for you: http://bricksetforum.com/discussion/1958/predictions-on-discontinuing-sets-and-their-secondary-market-value

Bumblepants

Although it is a shell of its former glory. Once upon a time that was the thread for fun and excitement around here. And sometimes investing. 

romanstar

Cheers mate i used to post on it a few years ago but due to other stuff in my life i completely ignored Lego and have only just come back to it and everythings changed and i feel like a newbie lol. I did notice that particular thread is hardly used these days compared to a few years ago. 

Astrobricks

I’m a relative newbie around here, and have never even sold a set, but I’ve gotten the distinct impression that buying as an investment is nowhere near as easy as it once was. Even SW UCS sets have the problem that LEGO has shown they will do rereleases (and probably better ones), and a lot more people are buying with the idea they will appreciate. Modular buildings probably have the best chance of predictable appreciation, but even then, a lot of people know that, so...
It’s all a form of gambling; there’s no sure-thing.

zmarkella

Yeah, I gave up on investing in sets. The ones I had have been parted out or built.
Run up to Christmas it was always easy to shift stock. This past Christmas: nothing. At all.
The rise of the Chinese clones have certainly made a dent. I have seen super-hardcore Lego fans buying multiple Lepin sets for Christmas.

560Heliport

I think too many people are stashing sets away with the idea they'll appreciate hugely... so they WON'T appreciate much. Supply and demand, you know. My feeling is that maybe Star Wars battle packs would be the way to go- if you can get a good discount, you can get (roughly) 20 for the price of a modular. I think that box condition would be less important to someone who wants a clone or stormtrooper army and is willing to buy several retired battle packs to do it.    

romanstar

I think the problem had been Lego saturating the market with all the DC Marvel stuff which a film comes out every other week and the Star Wars franchise which also jumped on the new film every 6 months mantra. 

CCC

I invest in the ones that go up in value.

^^ Battle packs don't increase that much either these days, although it depends on the figures. I found they sell better as figures too. It's a good way to get lots of parts for MOCS for little / no money. But as set investments, I'm not so sure. Postage often kills profits on smaller sets (again a reason to sell the figures rather than the sets).

It has to have the right army building figures, and lego keep messing with the designs. They keep changing the stormtrooper ones and army builders often want uniformity across all their troops, so you need to pick the right version.

romanstar

How do you decide which ones go up in value?

CCC

That's the key - invest in sets that are easy to store, easy to ship, are likely to be popular in the future and other people aren't investing in. Better still, ones you can get a great discount on.

Plus have a fall back position in case it doesn't go well. Can you sell the minifigures to get back a substantial amount? Are there decent parts in case you need to part it out?
 

romanstar

The unpopular sets wont go up in value though will they?

datsunrobbie

I have not been selling, but I figure if I can buy at an average of a penny per piece or less I might break even if I decide to start selling. I mainly shop thrift stores and clearance aisles.

madforLEGO

So some tough love: Odds are those who are making a decent profit selling still are not going to tell others how to do it, lest they want to completely trash the remaining secondary market for sets. IMO, Anyone telling you 'how to make money selling LEGO' needs to be looked at skeptically.

The glory days of reselling are well and gone. Thanks to sites like brickpicker you have too many yabbos wanting to make their millions in LEGO and have storage areas filled with sets, many of which will likely be misses, so really they are making nothing when you look really hard at it. Sorry, but when I see a LEGO set 'ticker' on a site, I think it is time to get what you can for what you have, and get out. Especially when I see there are now two LEGO reselling stores in my area.

My 'spending to hold' has gone WAYYYY down and only buying a very limited selection of sets. Heck, even mods are not doing a lot lately (Pet shop and Palace Cinema) because again everyone is hoarding.

As for used sets, most places people are well overpaying for LEGO lots, and you have to ask yourself if selling used LEGO per piece, like on sites like BL is worth doing it due to the labor involved (in driving all over to find 'cheap' lots to buy, cleaning said lots, organizing said lots, and then posting pieces up on sites like BL or brickowl)

mh3490

I always felt the sets that make the money were the sdcc exclusives, retailer exclusives and the higher end GWP's. I always try to get 2 or 3 GWP's for future trading and selling.

prevere

Bumblepants said:

Oh boy do I have a thread for you: http://bricksetforum.com/discussion/1958/predictions-on-discontinuing-sets-and-their-secondary-market-value

Here’s a tip. Start when it mentions the Imperial Flagship and stop when Lego Movie sets get brought up.

CCC

romanstar said:

The unpopular sets wont go up in value though will they?

It depends what you pay for them. And how you define unpopular, as some bad sellers at retail that were heavily discounted have become popular for the figures included.

SumoLego

(Or... Construct-a-Zurg.)

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA

^ A great case in point!  A long time ago I had similar sized stacks of Buzz's? Buzz's' ? Buzzii?... I digress.
 Similar stacks of him and Zurgs.  I've made phenomenal cash and trade return on Buzz while Zurg rots.

Personally, I no longer see LEGO as the investment vehicle it once was.  Though I also find that a large part of my own involvement may have actually been justifying my involvement in the hobby.  It's much easier to justify your hobby to grown ups when your hobby is bringing in a ridiculously high ROI compared to 'real life' investment vehicles.
 As I no longer feel I have to justify what I enjoy to anyone, I've been MUCH more relaxed at the ebbs and flows of my LEGO 'portfolio'.
 As someone who, by the end of the year will have seen a considerable K reduction in their collection value based on Rereleased Taj's, Snowspeeders and soon to be Y wings (and is quite comfortable with it) it's hard to recommend anything in the long term.
 So far I haven't felt the need to jump in and try to beat the market on any of the rereleases.  As far as my LEGO zen goes,  my stack of Tower Bridges represents patience.

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA

Forgot to add that the upcoming rerelease of both Harry Potter and Jurassic World sets is showing TLG has no reluctance in not only rereleasing sets but resurrecting entire themes which include direct rereleases.
 Another nail in the coffin of long term speculation. 

the_creative_box

If I would buy Lego for the sole purpose of investing in it, I would buy the smaller City sets and vehicles in the $20 price range. Once they get retired, the aftermarket prices rise very fast, at least on the Swedish market. I've seen the tank trucks from 2010 and 2013 go for $30 - $40 each on Ebay (used!). Also, the van and caravan from 2016 now goes for $25 - $30 there, regardless if it is new or not. 
Same goes for CMF:s. It's safe to say that the s18 policeman will become a collectors item, as will the Rocket Boy from s17. I sold one on on Ebay months ago for $10, but my starting price was $4.  

SumoLego

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA said:

...Buzz's? Buzz's' ? Buzzii?... I digress.

Buzzes?

Or maybe it's like 'deer' or 'moose', where many Buzz is the same spelling as a single Buzz.

romanstar

A lot of people invest to sell on but im a bit different i just want a few sets to put away a maybe in 10 years get them out and hopefully theyve earnt me a bit of pocket money. 

Interestingly i was going to buy Cloud city but Lego are bringing out another one, do people think when they release another replica set this greatly affects the original set price?

Astrobricks

romanstar said:

A lot of people invest to sell on but im a bit different i just want a few sets to put away a maybe in 10 years get them out and hopefully theyve earnt me a bit of pocket money. 

Interestingly i was going to buy Cloud city but Lego are bringing out another one, do people think when they release another replica set this greatly affects the original set price?

See the Rumoured Cloud City thread for plenty of opinions:
http://bricksetforum.com/discussion/27777/rumour-next-ucs-set-to-be-cloud-city#latest

Ankhros

I got back into Lego with an investment strategy in mind, but rather than selling the Legos, my thought was to make a Youtube channel and film the builds. (The channel is Brick Building Fun.) I figured if I can at least make enough money to buy sets and fuel the channel, then it would be worth trying out. Of course, now you can't monetize videos unless you have 1000 subscribers. So I guess for now, I'm doing it for the love of building and making videos.

As I see it, other than entire sets, the most valuable collector's items would be the figures and the instruction books. Maybe also specific pieces that only appeared in sets for a limited amount of time. I could be wrong, but if I had a ton of money and wanted to blow it on rare Legos, that's the route I'd take.

CCC

SumoLego said:

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA said:

...Buzz's? Buzz's' ? Buzzii?... I digress.

Buzzes?

Or maybe it's like 'deer' or 'moose', where many Buzz is the same spelling as a single Buzz.

So different to Legos then.

SumoLego

CCC said:

SumoLego said:
Or maybe it's like 'deer' or 'moose', where many Buzz is the same spelling as a single Buzz.

So different to Legos then.

Um, its' spelt Legoes.  Dum dum.

560Heliport

Hmm. I spell it LEGOs.

legofanfromleeds

I would have thought it might read lego$

Astrobricks

Or maybe £EGO$ :)

benbacardi

£€GO$?

Astrobricks

Doh! How’d I miss that €?

prevere

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA said:

Forgot to add that the upcoming rerelease of both Harry Potter and Jurassic World sets is showing TLG has no reluctance in not only rereleasing sets but resurrecting entire themes which include direct rereleases.
 Another nail in the coffin of long term speculation. 

Unless I'm missing something, neither the HP nor JW upcoming sets are re-releases, right? Yes - it's a continuation of the theme (like Silent Mary for POTC), but that shouldn't hurt the value of the theme (save T-Rex with the Juniors set).

I actually think the HP Great Hall might help the value of many older sets. If HP expands to a boatload of sets, then you'd be correct, but that's not the case right now.

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA

^ The Jurassic Park set is not a rerelease, however the theme has been resurrected as a whole outside of the Entire 'Jurassic' franchise. Using your example, it would be the same as if they had released a 'Dead Mans Chest' branded Flying Dutchman instead of the 'Dead Men tell no Tales' Silent Mary. HP does appear to be mix of original series and Fantastic Beasts sets so could be considered a continuation.
  The leaked HP descriptions include both Aragog in the Dark Forest and Ford Anglia escape. Both sets would appear (albeit based on rumour and description alone) to be direct rereleases.
 The only thing we should REALLY be surprised about is that it's taken them so long to do it!  They've been doing it extremely successfully with Star Wars  for the last fifteen years...

Haab7Figo

I think the Ideas tree house #21318 is a good investment. I like it a lot and it is very popular. As this set review points out it has a similar investment potential as the old fishing store #21310 which did absolutely great. I hope I can sell it for 300€ - 400€ two years after retirement.

FollowsClosely

Way to revive a 4 year old topic :) 

CCC

Tree House and the Old Fishing Store are from different times. While LEGO was becoming more popular when the fishing store was out, LEGO has continued to increase in popularity since its retirement. And people that missed it still want it. Most people that want the tree house will buy it during shelf life. Will there be enough new people into LEGO in two years time to buy at 2x RRP instead of current products at the time. Personally, I cannot see it doubling in two years.

Astrobricks

The Old Fishing Store was retired after 15 months. Tree House has been going twice as long already with no exit date released. So, from a scarcity view, it will not appreciate as quickly.

FollowsClosely

Bingo. The Old Fishing Store retirement caught most by surprise. It was expected to outlive other Idea sets, but it did not. The tree house will appreciate slowly.

madforLEGO

Just remember, you are not the only person thinking x or y set is a good investment.. not anymore... Everybody has their system and you have people storing LEGO in large storage units and websites devoted to treating LEGO like its a stock market. It not to say you will not make money in something, but you will have far more competition which will keep aftermarket prices lower for longer.

Haab7Figo

Yes that is true. Maybe it will not double in 2 years but 300€ is still realistic I think. The old fishing store doubled in just 1.5 years as you can see in this graph.

CCC

If you believe it will appreciate that much, then go for it. 

Astrobricks

The other thing that caused a lot of retired set appreciation over the last two years was the pandemic. That seems like a one-time effect to me, but who knows. The one thing that will help for sure is to buy at a discount if possible.

SumoLego

Global inflation is another fun factor to consider as well...