Is this the high water mark for Lego

Istokg

In 1960 LEGO only came in a limited number of colors (as it did for almost 30 years beyond that... these 2 images from # 238 Building Idea Book No. 1 shows the entire spectrum of LEGO parts available to buyers... as well as the number of the spare parts packs that they came in....





There were 138 different spare parts packs available... here are just the 2x4 brick spare parts packs available (# 218)....



The years 1958-72 were the golden years of LEGO spare parts packs... and this provided "the System" for LEGO parts.

Granted this could not be done today.... but it shows how the "system" worked back then, and that you could build just about anything in the colors available back then.

xwingpilot

For me the high point was when I came out of my dark ages in 2015. 2014 sets were still available so I picked-up the UCS Red 5 X-Wing Starfighter and all of the Series 1 OT Microfighters. 2015 continued with fantastic minifigure printing, the release of the UCS TIE Fighter and Slave 1 (although I didn't buy these), the Imperial Shuttle Tydirium, ESB Microfighters and Inquisitor's TIE Advanced. Since then the SW line then has mainly focused on the ST and RO, so my collecting has practically dried up. I think if I hadn't taken my daughter to LEGOLAND in 2015 I wouldn't be coming out of my dark ages in 2017...

omnium

I've been thinking about the theory here that we can't buy enough of a single colour to make something consistent any more and I'm not convinced it was ever true in my lifetime, nor that it's because we have a larger palette and more part designs.

I was watching my friend's kids playing with his 70s and 80s Lego, mixed with their own parts, and they were struggling to build a fort on a 32x32 baseplate because they didn't have enough "standard" bricks in one colour. So they mixed colours and 1xN and 2xN bricks to build the wall around their fort.

So that's​ a problem, for sure.

But it's not a modern problem. It's the same problem my friends and I had in the 70s and 80s.

We had far less Lego than kids today, so we still had supply problems. Sure, if you were rich, you could solve the problem. But that's just as true today.

Shib

I'm also of the opinion that this is not just a modern problem, it's just made more obvious by a higher range of colours and parts.

i like the idea of the colour specific packs, they're a little small for AFOL use but nice starter sets for that idea. I think that a big box of just 2x4s in various colours could be a great supplement idea.

i know people are saying their kids also need to have the right colours to build in, but I suspect that habit developed far earlier in kids of AFOLs than others.

Also to be fair, those in the know have ways of getting bulk of individual parts - if you don't know what I'm talking about I highly recommend hoping a LUG and trying to take an active role in that community.

I realise it can be frustrating as an AFOL to not be able to get that specific part in the right colour, but that's not new, and given that AFOLs account for a small percentage of LEGO sales it's not likely to be the cause of any drop in profits so is frankly an unrelated point.

Venunder

Have the Parts packs been replaced by the PAB Walls and the S@H Bricks and Pieces?
It seems to me that you can get most of the parts you want or need these days.

tamamahm

Right. This is not a new issue. I had one large Lego set as a kid. I could not make what I wanted as a kid due to lack of parts/colors. 

I also do not see this this as a major issue today in that many kids are buying sets to build and are less about the parts. Even if they are about the parts, due To the interests parts and shapes within sets, I do find if my kids use those parts they can create far more creative things than I could have with my basic block set as a kid. My 14 year old came over last night and started taking the pieces from bag 4 on the Fisherman's hut I am building, and threw together a big troll.

Aanchir

With regard to the topic's main question, i.e. "will we continue to see more and more bigger and bigger sets?" I'd answer "on some levels".

Like, just going by precedent, it's pretty normal after LEGO launches a bigger-than-usual exclusive for them to revert to a lower and more stable price for the next one. The 2008 Taj Mahal, 2011 Super Star Destroyer, 2012 Town Hall, etc. didn't really amount to a lasting change in the "status quo" for their respective series. I don't expect that the UCS Millennium Falcon, or Assembly Square will either. Next year's UCS Star Wars sets will probably revert to around the $200–$250 price point, next year's Modular Buildings will probably revert to around the $170–$180 price point, etc.

That's not to say these forays into higher price points will have no impact, though. If these sets sell well, it raises the bar for other "bigger-than-usual" exclusives. We probably wouldn't have gotten the $280 Assembly Square if we hadn't previously gotten the $200 Town Hall. We probably wouldn't have gotten the $300 Ninjago City if we hadn't previously gotten the $200 Temple of Airjitzu or the $250 Sea Cow. We probably wouldn't have gotten the $250 Mountain Cave if we hadn't previously gotten the $200 Village. Etc. Big sets like this test what the market can bear, and how well they do can impact when and whether TLG has the confidence to push the envelope even further.

There's also a certain amount of more gradual/incremental price growth that's to be expected, like what we've seen for the "normal-sized" modulars and UCS Star Wars sets. Some of that is just inflation, while some of it is increased confidence in the selling power of those particular lines, but as long as the sets at these more typical price points continue selling well, we can probably expect more of this kind of gradual price growth.

As for the NUMBER of huge, expensive sets, that's a bit tougher to judge. It's worth noting that this year there have been just eight $199+ sets, compared to ten last year. But the number of $149+ sets is up from 13 to 17, and the number of $99+ sets is up from 33 to 37. So how much the number of huge sets is actually growing really depends on where you draw the line for what constitutes a huge set. And I don't really have the patience to calculate the relative growth of any of these higher price points compared to the growth in the number of sets in general.