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Speculation on the upcoming Death Star
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Comments
I can never understand why TLG assumed we have higher buying power than those in US or EU.
If only TLG would set the price here based on direct conversion rather than markup with a factor of 2, which will bring it to S$1000! :(
EDIT: Wow, I'm an idiot. He lives in Singapore.
Joy.
Can Lego just re-box the Ewok Village with the UCS badge, so my OCD can dissipate?
Man, the resellers and minfig collectors have killed Lego for most of us. When I look at something like this rehashed monster priced at $500 I have to think that it's NOT what Lego is about. Not At All.
NO.
no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
just No.
$500?
WTF is lego smoking?
that is a 25% increase on the old US price.
i dear not think what the uk one will be.
i am not getting it.
this is one more bad call by lego on the star wars front.
Lego is about selling a premium product to the largest number of people that will buy it.
No intention of going anywhere near this rehash, can't wait to see the UK price but I'm guessing £399.99.
With regards to price. Just a quick look shows that the old one is selling on ebay at around £425, so some people are prepared to pay this amount (I know, I know, retired sets go for more). Its possible that the price of the old set may decrease now given the new set. Does that mean it will be possible to pick up the old one cheaper than the new one?!
Given the current pricing structure for Star Wars sets (1 piece = 10 pence in the UK), it seems that a re-release of the Millennium Falcon is unlikely (it would cost £500+). I have to agree with the sentiment of others, that Star Wars sets are becoming prohibitively expensive. If you compare the same sized sets across other themes, it feels that you don`t get very much for your money when buying Star Wars.
I`m glad I bought mine years ago (Just over 4 years). Whilst the minifigures look very outdated, I`ve got enough newer minifigures to substitute in (and I`m sure I could bricklink the `improvements` at a vastly lower cost than £400). I don`t think I could ever pay £400 for a single Lego set. Certainly, my wages have gone up by this level of `inflation`.
I can definitely agree with this. Hopefully the snow speeder will make up for this. From the sand speeder recently reaching 10,000 supporters on Cuusoo, maybe Lego will get it through their heads that people want display models, not play sets. There is plenty of budget for play sets in the regular StarWars line, it doesn't need to bleed into the UCS line.
Personally I'm pleased there are no significant changes. If there were then I would have been rushing to buy and build it but now I don't feel the need. I love 10188 and it brought me out of my dark ages. It takes you through a Star Wars journey as each room is built and I don't see how new parts or building techniques are going to improve that journey significantly. Of course there are AFOL niggles with the set but I don't think they will given any consideration.
The price point was always going to increase. I think it's nearly impossible to be objective about it. If we had not had 10188 sitting there at £275 for 8 years and this was being released for the first time at say £350 (this is my guess on price) would there be as much knicker twisting about the cost? I think not. I've been saying to people for two years that they should buy 10188 because by 2015/16 prices it is actually very good value for money.
I do see this redesign/repackage/rehash costing some sales, even if it's just the one I won't buy. Will it still sell well enough at a higher price to the core audience, only time will tell. With the new films is there still enough interest in the Death Star? My gut instinct is that if there was interest in 2008 30 odd years after we met the DS then yes there will be enough interest. Some of us won't buy it but the conveyor belt of 10 year old children along with parents on a nostalgia trip attempting to reconnect to their own childhood will continue.
More recent photos do seem to indicate otherwise...
Right now, $500 is about £380, so £350 seems most likely to me.
TLG may need to remember that people out there are starting to notice Lepin and other clones. You might not be able to nip to the high street to pick one up, but they are accessible to everyone on the net and if the quality is decent enough (as it seems to be), little Timmy might be getting a £120 Death Star for Christmas instead of a £400 one. These clones may yet have a purpose for us - to keep TLG's product inflation in check.
Alternatively, the increase must be down to Han's hair stylist's costs.
It should also be remembered that the US prices are before tax, so care has to be taken when comparing to UK and European prices.
Looking at the price differences on recent UCS sets, where the UK price in pounds is 85% to 88% of the price in US dollars, I expect it will be no less than £420 and could realistically be £450.
Those fan bases are probably the clue to "prohibitively expensive". Are they actually trying to sell to AFOLs? Or are they trying to appeal to a wider market? They only get prohibitively expensive if you try buying a number of them. Unfortunately, some people collect Star Wars sets and therefore feel the need to do so, but I can see somebody seeing and buying the Porsche when they haven't bought any LEGO sets for many years, and won't for many years to come.
And more than RRP on Minecraft Lego sets...
maybe in another 8 years when this price catches up with inflation it will sell well, but I just can't see the majority of people buying this, especially when this set is the most expensive set ever, next to the UCS MF and those serious play sets, and it's definitely not the largest set.
A Porsche fan doesn't see a LEGO set that makes a Porsche; he sees a Porsche made out of LEGO bricks. To him, it's cool because it's a Porsche - just like that radio-controlled one he has, and the gold-plated he has on his desk. It'll look good on a display stand in the corner, and impress his friends. He'll see a much greater value - let's face it, there's no other way he'd be seen dead buying a children's toy for himself. Nor does he particularly care that the gears are in the right order, or that there are gaps between panels. It's a Porsche. Better, it's an unusual one. But it's still a Porsche. It's worth every penny, even at twice the price, because it's a one-off; there's unlikely to be anything similar on his radar in a year or two's time.
I doubt any AFOL would pay twice the price for it. I suspect that quite a lot of Technic fans won't pay the current price for it. Or a lot less than that. It's a LEGO set, not a Porsche, and as such they see it's faults. There are already similar things on their radar now, not in the future - other Technic sets. They choose. They make a value judgement and, for many, something else will win. It's just not special enough to justify the price. The exceptions are the completionist - and that doesn't apply to many of the high-value sets that I mentioned because there's nothing to complete.
Somebody who has no LEGO sets, and otherwise has no interest in them, would be prepared to pay more than an AFOL for the same item.
You're twisting your argument to make the exception the rule. I'm sure those Porsche sets will sell, but most will buy somewhere at a discount (to a non-Porsche owner), at Smyths (UK/Ireland) or somewhere similar when they have a promo on.
Lets take your argument the other way - Are heavy machinery drivers going to be the only ones buying a Lego Mercedes Arocs?
Either way - Lego makes sets for kids and AFOLs - they are the people who buy the vast majority of the sets - Mr Porsche fan might put money in TLGs pockets once in a blue moon, not on a regular basis. Industries make the vast majority of their money from regular custom.
LEGO had to look at the market when they decided it was time to reset the price on the Death Star, and take a shot at creating a successor that would maximize sales. There are people who own #10188, and those who don't. A lot of people who already own #10188 probably were not going to drop another $400 for a new one, much less $500 or more, even for a major update, simply because that's a big chunk of money. People who were in the market but did not buy #10188 probably were not actually going to buy an updated but similar version for more money than the one they passed up. People who were not yet in the market when #10188 retired did not have it to compare against, so they would tend to be less critical of the lack of improvements, and might not even know that there was a prior version.
I have not read every review of #10188 on Brickset, but of 33 reviews there are 32 5-star reviews and one 4-star review. Why would TLG mess with the design of a set that gets nothing but 5-star reviews? When do we start seeing MOCs with the missing improvements?
#10188 is one of my favorite sets. I bought mine used (but complete except for one inner box) for $80. I'd pick up the new one for a similarly ridiculous deal, but would not have paid MSRP for #10188 or the new version, because that is nearly half of my annual LEGO budget.
I'm used to seeing improvements with newer sets of the same subject matter - is TLG being extremely lazy or can 10188 just not be improved because it is perfect?
I feel like TLG gave the UCS SW designers the year off.
With such a long period between 2 sets that interest me, I do think that my interest in Lego might be on the wane - TLG need to keep the target market interested - perhaps the dedicated AFOL with money in their pockets is no longer the target market (or at least the supplementary market to the rabidly eager 5-12 year olds who almost certainly are the biggest single group of Lego consumers)?
Like everyone else, I'm quite disappointed with the DS rehash. It's just such a wasted opportunity. But those damn updated figs, sigh... So with #10188 still new and sealed, I'm in a dilemma like many others. Do I open the one I have and skip the new one, get both and build the new one, or sell the old one to get the new one for an equal swap. Anyone else pondering these important life decisions? Curious to know which way you're leaning.
How many completionists out there care enough to see the 2 DSs side by side and want to pay £450 aftermarket for the old one if the new one is marginally better (on the strength of the figs alone) if they don't yet have the old one? not many i'd imagine. I think that TLG has had a laugh at the expense of everyone stashing 10188s for the aftermarket, even if it was not their primary concern when doing the rehash.
"It's finally selling out! Let's get a hundred and put Billy through college when we sell them in a few years!"
fast forward a few months... "DANG IT!!!!!!!!"
Nope again. There are plenty of people who aspire to owning a Porsche that have the same attitude. A Porsche owner doesn't buy an "experience day", but they still get sold. (I don't mean track days - the fun of driving a Porsche is not driving it round a track.)
I only used Porsche as an example because it's probably easier to understand than many of the other fan-themes for people who aren't followers of those themes.
AFOL? OK, if you say so. There are people around here who buy that number each week. And whilst that may include much smaller sets, there are still people who buy a good number of more expensive sets in a year.
As TLG seemingly release more and more exclusive sets at higher and higher prices there's a point at which everbody says "Enough!" because the total cost of all the desirable sets is effectively exponential. Nor is it about being about to "find the means"; it's about being comfortable that doing so is sensible and value for money. I would no more buy #42056 at £250 than I would a real one at £300,000, and the reason is exactly the same as has nothing to do with affordability - because I'm not interested in Porsche, neither are worth it. Other people obviously think differently.
Do you think that only truck drivers are interested in such things? That only trains drivers buy trains? That only farmers will buy #42054. They all have fan clubs, mainly of people who look but aren't really able to touch - and who spend small fortunes pursuing their hobby.
That is the greatest shame of it all.
All these exclusive sets appeal to a lot of AFOLs. But they are overpriced. The Bucket Wheel Excavator is the largest ever Technic set - pretty much 1½ times the size of the Porsche, yet the prices are the other way around. A difference of that magnitude is not going to be down to royalties. It's because the Porsche fan-base will more than cover any of the Technic fan-base that drops out because of the price because the increased profit margin skews the figures.
Those regular customers, us and the kids, will still be there tomorrow, but that's all forgotten when it comes to those special sets that are likely to appeal to people who are generally uninterested. Most other manufacturers would price things normally and if that meant that other people made purchases, it would considered a bonus.
Maybe we don't count - we're adults playing with toys. But how many kids are going to look at the new Death Star - and be disappointed because it's just too expensive. The Death Star isn't even a model - it's a playset. But the kids are what makes the world go round for TLG, but they're losing sight of that.
It may not be realistic to assume teen and adult collectors don't care about play value, either. This is far from the first time LEGO has aimed a "playset" at teens and adults. As I've said before, I think people have been looking at a lot of recent sets as though the UCS badge is somehow a special status that separates the men from the boys, when really all it does is separate the D2C Star Wars sets from their smaller retail cousins.
This isn't even the first year when both D2C/UCS Star Wars sets have been playsets — that would go to 2009, when the two D2C sets were #10195 Republic Dropship and #10198 Tantive IV. Both sets had the same 14+ age rating as the Death Star, and were easily just as play-oriented. Were there any complaints back then about a lack of "real" UCS sets? I wasn't really involved in the AFOL community at that time, particularly the Star Wars side of things.