Speculation in the LEGO Market: Will there be a Bubble?

LegoFanTexas

^ Beckett published prices of cards, but those prices were only as good as what Beckett decided to publish.

A friend of our family worked for Beckett for many, many years, now retired... The Internet completely destroyed that business, because it showed just how absurd the listed prices in those price books really were. Thank eBay for that. :)

The poster above who pointed out (correctly) that the prior bubbles happened before everyone really knew what everything was worth, made a key point in that for the past 10 years, it is obvious to everyone and their brother what Lego is worth, a few mouse clicks and actual prior sales history is free for the taking.

Forums like this help further...

Will Lego see a rise and fall cycle? Probably... but I don't think it will completely crash the way baseball cards did.

For what it is worth, I had a side involvement with collectibles in the 90s, I saw the crash and the value of that stuff just dropped to almost nothing almost overnight...

Lego is unlikely to do that unless they do something really stupid. :)

Side note: Just 18 months ago, an old friend in the business offered me up his stash of sports cards... Mostly baseball, but he had a nearly complete collection of NBA and NFL cards as well. A storage locker, 5x15, stacked floor to ceiling... We both guessed between 750,000 and 1.25 Million cards, depending on how you counted it (we were not about to physically move the boxes to count.

I considered buying it, but believe it or not, passed on it at a price of $2,500 for all of them. Almost everything was late 80s, early 90s, complete seasons of all the major brands in all the major sports, many still in the original boxes.

Pitfall69

Wise choice :)

LegoFanTexas

Wise choice :)

:) Is there potential money to be made with that? Sure... but it is a ton of busy work for a lot of very heavy boxes, then you have to add in storage (which he has been paying on for over 15 years).

Talk about losing your shirt!!!

Such a shame, 20 years ago that collection was worth some money.

Pitfall69

Yes, if you part out the collection and send the good cards to be graded there would be money to be made, but we will go back to time. How much money is your time worth?

Pitfall69

Way off topic for a sec. @LegoFanTexas are you a Dallas Cowboys fan?

Odindusk

LFT: at the apex of that "collectibles" era (1995-ish?), I used to visit a local comic book/cards store every Wednesday for their weekly shipment of books. It always astounded me to see how much other customers spent on that day. I was there to pick up maybe 2-3 books that I liked to read. And there were grown business men (who looked completely out of place in a nerd cave like that) that would come in and spend hundreds of dollars on a few packs of some CRAZILY-priced, luxury sports cards that retailed for $50/pack. I don't know what brand/set it was but I'll try to research it.

I felt badly for people that dumped huge portions of their income into this stuff, only to find it all be virtually worthless just a short time later.

Pitfall69

So...I guess you feel bad for me...lol. I'm one of those people.

Odindusk

So badly. =(

Pitfall69

I was one of the "lucky" ones. I was only in the business for a few years and I got out before the bubble burst, but my cards are still worth alot less than they could have been.

I thought Lego was doomed when they "juniorized" everything. They survived that and the internet and websites like this has helped Lego know what we want as consumers and I think Lego has listened for the most part.

black_towr

I was in the sportscard business for close to 20 years. Got out at the right time and made a ton of money. I know guys who held on longer and lost a ton of cash.

mathew

Here's my opinion of what killed the baseball card market. Topps and others got greedy and released too many "limited edition" sets thus watering down the collectibility aspect. Video games were a contributor. I remember after the NES came out, I saved up for games instead of buying baseball cards. Steroids, labor disputes and soaring player salaries blemished the sport and took some of the fun out of collecting. I still have my Mark McGwire rookie card that I think was once worth over $100 but is now probably worth $1.00.

Pacific493

I think it does. There are, I would argue, many less wealthy collectors who can afford the prices. This decreases the potential audience at the moment people are putting it on ebay and other places at the still high prices is twofold. 1) People want to try and get the biggest return on it, naturally, but also they have bills to pay etc and so need that money more. Also that is what the set had been formerly been trading hands at and people think if they list it at that price they will get it because people will want to buy it at that price. However in these times people dont want to buy it at that price. So those with the set will be forced to either sell it at a lower price, and a lot lower price in my opinion. Because the prices are far to unrealistic in my opinion.

What you're describing are normal market dynamics. The problem with your hypothesis, however, is that we haven't seen any price declines in the high-dollar sets. To be sure, the prices of MF and CC will likely stabilize at some point in the not too distant future and may decline somewhat, but that is a far different market event than the popping of a bubble.

Again, I respectfully disagree. In a recession people have the same amount of money but what goes up is everything else.

That's not true at all. During a recession, people's access to money goes down either as a result of job losses, investment losses, or the tightening of credit. During the most recent recession, the amount of money that U.S. citizens lost access to was enormous and largely resulted from the decline in home prices. In fact, the event that precipitated the bubble popping over here was the stabilization of home prices...once prices stopped rising, homeowners (particularly subprime borrowers) were unable to refinance their houses and defaults rose...once defaults rose, asset-backed securities started getting wiped out...once ABSes started getting wiped out, lending dried up, which caused the market to seize.

Price bubbles can easily form especially as the second hand market is a very different market from that of the main one. In that we are dealing with people what they do is not look at what is selling but what will make them money and because lego has gone up and is selling well especially in a recession. They jump on board to make money and push prices up beyond what is the value of a set. Of course there are price increases as you say:

Asset bubbles don't form on the seller side of the market...they form on the buyer side of the market. Sellers will always try to sell goods for the highest price possible...bubbles form when buyers are willing to pay ever higher prices and drive market prices beyond what the asset is actually worth. When reality sets in, that's when the bubble pops. To truly marshal evidence of an asset bubble, you would need some indication that buyers are becoming unwilling to pay the prices that sellers are asking and are coming to realize that they have been grossly overpaying for the underlying asset. Again, I have seen absolutely no evidence to suggest that is happening.

Of course there have been increases but I would argue that they were not as many as there are now. What we are seeing especially now is a large scale rise in prices that are taking it beyond reasonable price increases. My example would be alot of the Ninjago sets have seen high increases from what they were on sale for. Now I dont argue that these prices will rise. What I do argue is that these sets have been pushed past there intrinsic value.

To be blunt, you don't know what you're talking about. I have been watching the second-hand market for many years and there have always been extreme price increases in sets after they are retired. While it is true that certain sets in recent years have increased in value beyond what previous sets had, second-hand sets have risen in value for many years. When I first started selling Lego about 6 years ago, there were numerous Star Wars sets that were selling for 2x-3x RRP within 1-2 years of being retired. There were also certain pieces and minifigures that sold for insanely high prices. There was a time when the At-At driver (the one that appeared in the 8084 battlepack) was a $20-$25 minifigure.

Sorry I dont think I was that clear with that point. What I mean is I dont ever believe that prices will fall below RRP but they will fall and quickly especially if people carry on not buying the expensive sets. For some thing to fall from £900 to £90 (im using cloud city) is a massive price drop and to me defiantly shows a price bubble and not a natural ebb and flow from the market.

Please show me where I can purchase a Cloud City for 90 euros...I would buy as many as are available at that price.

Hmmm being a Historian Im gonna struggle on this one economically but I would say from a human point of view, which is clear through history. The reason gold retains a high value is that we associate it as being a rare precious metal, which if we can coat ourselves in it as much as possible displays our large wealth. By buying it we display that we can afford high end materials and we are powerful. So it retains its high value as jewelers and others know that it will sell well. I couldn't however say the same for lego, you would just look strange if you covered yourself in it.

Right...gold is highly valued because it is a rare commodity that is assigned a high value for its beauty and inherent qualities (doesn't degrade, doesn't tarnish, etc.). The only reason that gold is valuable is because it is something that certain people want to own. For the most part, people don't buy gold because it has utility in their lives...they buy gold either because they view it as something that holds value or because they want to wear it as an accessory. Although I don't think that Lego is likely to become a common fashion accessory, Lego is similar to gold in that it is valuable not because it has actual utility in the way that a commodity like gasoline has, but because it is something that certain people want to own. Once a Lego set is retired, it becomes rare and more difficult to obtain. With the exception of certain industrial applications, gold has no more utility in anyone's life than Lego does.

As a complete aside do you resell as a main income or is it a side thing? Im just being curious.

Just a side thing...there is no way that I could make enough money to live reselling Lego and I doubt there are many people out there who do so. I know of a few, but they primarily sell used Lego and operate on a scale that would be extremely difficult for large numbers of other resellers to replicate. One of the reasons that I don't think that we're in any type of bubble is that I don't think that the seller side of the market is very large when compared to the buyer side of the market. Reading posts here, it might seem like there are huge numbers of resellers hoarding hundreds and hundreds of copies of individual sets, but, in reality, I think that the numbers are fairly limited. I say this because I resell on a fairly significant scale and I know how expensive it is and how much of a pain in the butt it is, and I just don't think that the number of resellers is anywhere close to the level that would be needed to put the second-hand market in any danger of a huge price drop like you envision.

Pitfall69

^^^ Yes, I mentioned the "watering down" of the industry previously. There are many factors that contributed to the demise of the sports card industry. I think we are just talking about the major factors here. Yes, I played alot of video games too back then.

LegoFanTexas

Something to consider with Gold...

http://www.barrick.com/company/profile/default.aspx

This company had net cash costs of between $400 and $450 per ounce to produce new Gold.

There are of course other costs, costs of capital, investment, amatorization, etc.

However, it also means that with Gold at $1,600 an ounce, there is a huge margin between cost of goods sold and selling price, which means there is lots of room for that selling price to fall.

Pitfall69

Maybe Lego will get so expensive, owning it will be like having alot of Gold. You will start to see Rap Stars wearing Cafe Corners around their necks and wearing crime plated TC-14's in their ears.

Pitfall69

@Pacific493 That was alot to take in. My head was about to explode. I have always said that Lego has "value" beyond the Lego set itself. Gold and Silver are used in many manufctured components which is why Gold and Silver has shot up in price. I think Lego is unique and probably can't be compared to every other collectors item or precious metal.

Orangechef

Of the three general areas of LEGO sales (sets, parts, mini-figs) mini-figs are the area that seem the most bubble-ish to me. In my opinion the supply is increasing since it seems like LEGO has cranked up production of sets and collector's series, put more minifigs in each set, and let some sets hang on longer than the 2 year mark. I may be biased though because figs are the part of the set I care about least.

New in box sets will appreciate slower due to an increase in the number of boxed set re-sellers (not that hard to get into), but I think the only reason for prices to drop is due to a re-release.

Parts prices are generally safe since the complication in getting into parts sales is a big barrier to entry.

Redbullgivesuwind

I dont think we will ever convince each other of the other point. I do hope im wrong and we dont do have a massive collapse. Although as a buyer Im hoping for one so I can snaffle up that plastic goodness :-).

Oh by the way nerf herder....i took complete offense ha ha!

tvih

Maybe Lego will get so expensive, owning it will be like having alot of Gold. You will start to see Rap Stars wearing Cafe Corners around their necks and wearing crime plated TC-14's in their ears.

Hah, that would be awesome. I can already imagine UCS MF as a hat... ;)

evileddie1313

I know this has already been hashed and rehashed, but if the baseball/football/basketball card industry can fall apart, so could Lego. The card industry was much, much bigger than Lego, at least in the US. I know people said it's because you can't physically play with them, but they had a connection to real life people and games. It's very possible that the next generation of children will move on to other toys and other forms of entertainment, not likely, but definitely possible. I still think Lego is a very small niche community, so that could shield it from a big falloff. I think all of the big sets are predominantly bought by AFOL's, as parents are reluctant to spend $150 on something that will be missing pieces within days if owned by an 8 year old. Before getting back into Lego, I scoffed at buying a rather small set for $50, let alone the bigger sets.

LEGO is hardly a "very small" niche community:

2011 LEGO Systems U.S. Year-end Highlights (source: The NPD Group U.S. Consumer Panel)

*Recorded seventh consecutive year of growth in the U.S.
*Grew U.S. consumer sales +22% to reach $1.33 billion.
*Increased U.S. total toy market share to 6.2%, up 1.2 share points over 2010, to solidify position as #3 toy manufacturer in America. The company's share of the total U.S. toy market has tripled in five years.
*Accounted for 80% of Building Sets category sales in the U.S. in a year of increased category competition.
*Solidified rank as America's #1 preschool construction brand, adding +11 share points to reach 43.5% of the segment
*Responsible for 25% of all toys sold to American boys ages 9-11 in 2011 and 20% of all U.S. toys sold to boys ages 6-8.
*Placed 9 LEGO properties in the top 100 of all traditional toys in the U.S.

BoiseState

Being popular between the 6-11 year old market is a small niche market in my book..

http://www.lvrj.com/sports/47141452.html


Here's an interesting article that states the baseball card market crashed when adults began collecting for investment purposes. Same thing that seems to be happening with Lego right now, albeit on a much smaller scale.

CCC

It was also voted the no.1 in a 100 greatest toys poll in the UK, a couple of years back.

http://www.channel4.com/programmes/100-greatest-toys-with-jonathan-ross/articles/the-vote

BoiseState

Although I don't think Lego will focus on the adult collector like baseball card companies did.

But at the same time, Lego won't maintain those growth numbers. They'll go through the same cycles every longstanding toy goes through.

dougts

Here's an interesting article that states the baseball card market crashed when adults began collecting for investment purposes. Same thing that seems to be happening with Lego right now, albeit on a much smaller scale.

the difference of course being that the baseball card, sans it's "investment" value, has no real use or function. It's not like you can rip it up into 500 different pieces that all have individual function or utility outside of the whole card.

LEGO sets are intrinsically different. Even if the "bubble bursts" from an investment standpoint, the value of any EOL set is unlikely to fall into the abyss - there will likely still be buyers at or near the original RRP, and worst case, the pieces themselves will still have value for MOCers, etc.

The only scenario where these things will go the way of baseball cards is if ALL LEGO, new/used, etc. becomes virtually worthless. Hard to see any realistic scenario of that happening, sans some sort of societal collapse, in which case we will have bigger problems than lost investment value sitting in closets...

Pitfall69

"The demand led makers to overproduce, and the market became glutted, said Sports Collectors Digest editor T.S. O'Connell. Card companies multiplied, and sales peaked in the early 1990s.

Card sales fell dramatically in the 1990s after manufacturers thought the future of the business was focusing on the demand of adult buyers who transformed collecting from hobby to investment."

A big mistake by the industry. Lego has always been about kids and I don't ever see Lego doing what the sports card industry did 20 years ago. Investment may be the reason why the industry over produced, but ultimately over production is WHY the industry collapsed.

Lego will never do this and that is why your argument doesn't hold water. If they were going to do that, they would have already done it.

evileddie1313

Being popular between the 6-11 year old market is a small niche market in my book..

http://www.lvrj.com/sports/47141452.html


Here's an interesting article that states the baseball card market crashed when adults began collecting for investment purposes. Same thing that seems to be happening with Lego right now, albeit on a much smaller scale.

Good article and some ideas may apply to the current LEGO situation. What I think some people fail to realize is that collectors and resellers in the LEGO world make up a very small percentage of LEGO business. Just because a handful of LEGO fanatics on these and other forums say it's so, doesn't have any real bearing on LEGO sales in general. I don't disagree with you 100% and I think there is truth to what you say, but LEGO sets have always been expensive and will continue to be expensive, both on the primary and secondary markets and if the base LEGO sales are good, the secondary market should follow suit.

Unless the world economy really tanks, I can't see LEGO prices heading downward. I never hear anyone in the non-LEGO world saying they have to buy LEGO bricks to build up their investment portfolio, so until I do, I think we are safe. But who knows, people are fickle. I'm just a little biased towards LEGO bricks over Baseball cards. I love baseball, but never cared to collect a card, but LEGO bricks on the other hand...well, that's another story... ;-)

BoiseState

I don't think it will ever collapse like the baseball card industry, but I don't think the boom cycle it's in now will be long term. Too much competition and new technology.

Pitfall69

According to the US Census in 2010, 17.5% of the population were ages 5-17 years of age roughly 54 million kids. To me that is NOT a small niche market at all. I chose those age rranges because those are the ages most kids start getting into Legos and when kids stop and go into their "dark ages".

BoiseState

5-17? Not only do few teenagers play with Lego, or any other toys for that matter, but Lego is mostly a boys toy. I know they are now targeting girls with the Friends line, but teenage girls aren't going to be into that either. It's more like the 5-11 range, with mostly just boys.

Pitfall69

Being popular between the 6-11 year old market is a small niche market in my book..

http://www.lvrj.com/sports/47141452.html


Here's an interesting article that states the baseball card market crashed when adults began collecting for investment purposes. Same thing that seems to be happening with Lego right now, albeit on a much smaller scale.

Good article and some ideas may apply to the current LEGO situation. What I think some people fail to realize is that collectors and resellers in the LEGO world make up a very small percentage of LEGO business. Just because a handful of LEGO fanatics on these and other forums say it's so, doesn't have any real bearing on LEGO sales in general. I don't disagree with you 100% and I think there is truth to what you say, but LEGO sets have always been expensive and will continue to be expensive, both on the primary and secondary markets and if the base LEGO sales are good, the secondary market should follow suit.

Unless the world economy really tanks, I can't see LEGO prices heading downward. I never hear anyone in the non-LEGO world saying they have to buy LEGO bricks to build up their investment portfolio, so until I do, I think we are safe. But who knows, people are fickle. I'm just a little biased towards LEGO bricks over Baseball cards. I love baseball, but never cared to collect a card, but LEGO bricks on the other hand...well, that's another story... ;-)

I am not biased toward Lego because I used to collect cards and coins when I was younger. When I was in my teens I used to put together plastic models. I had a Sports card business in the early 90's. I started collecting Star Wars figures in 95 with the new releases. I came out of my Lego dark Ages around 2001. Lego has more to offer than the other hobbies used to be into.

Redbullgivesuwind

"Card sales fell dramatically in the 1990s after manufacturers thought the future of the business was focusing on the demand of adult buyers who transformed collecting from hobby to investment." I dont think lego will produce only adult sets from now on but that second half, in my opinion, reflects much of how the second hand market can be viewed. Looking at the role of resellers thread there seems to be a small but growing view that people dont want to pay the prices that are being asked as some people who are here for the big profit look to use it as that.

*Ducks to hide from hoards of angry people*

Pitfall69

Speaking of small markets. I was born and raised in NY. NY has an estimated 19.4 population...Idaho 1.6 million. Lego may not be as popular there as it is in some of the major metropolitan areas.

BoiseState

Again, I don't think Lego will focus on adult buyers, but I think they'll definitely add more sets that appeal to adult buyers. But its certainly possible investment collectors have a negative impact on the hobby long term, but they are doing wrong in doing so. No matter the hobby, if there is money to be made in investing people will do it.

evileddie1313

"Card sales fell dramatically in the 1990s after manufacturers thought the future of the business was focusing on the demand of adult buyers who transformed collecting from hobby to investment." I dont think lego will produce only adult sets from now on but that second half, in my opinion, reflects much of how the second hand market can be viewed. Looking at the role of resellers thread there seems to be a small but growing view that people dont want to pay the prices that are being asked as some people who are here for the big profit look to use it as that.

*Ducks to hide from hoards of angry people*

Excellent point

@Pitfall69 ...I was just saying that I am biased towards LEGO bricks, not anyone else. ;-)

Pitfall69

Oh, I know what you meant. I was just giving you a view from my side. A person that has collected everything in his lifetime. I prefer Legos to spend my money on. They have alot more to offer IMO.

LegoFanTexas

5-17? Not only do few teenagers play with Lego, or any other toys for that matter, but Lego is mostly a boys toy. I know they are now targeting girls with the Friends line, but teenage girls aren't going to be into that either. It's more like the 5-11 range, with mostly just boys.

I have to completely agree with this ^ point...

mathew

Lego offers a creative outlet that doesn't rely on a touch screen. Baseball cards were doomed to fail because they can be easily replicated on a computer screen. The only thing missing is the faint smell of wax and bubble gum. You can't replicate building Lego with an iPad.

Pitfall69

@BoiseState

Everyone is entitled to their opinion. That is what this forum is about. If you feel resellers have a negative affect on the market that's fine, but that has been discussed in another forum. I think everyone has valid points in this discussion. Lego wasn't voted the greatest toy in 100 years for nothing. I think they have a good business model and I doubt they will stray too much from that. I am optimistic that there won't be a bubble to burst. That is, of course, my opinion.

Pitfall69

5-17? Not only do few teenagers play with Lego, or any other toys for that matter, but Lego is mostly a boys toy. I know they are now targeting girls with the Friends line, but teenage girls aren't going to be into that either. It's more like the 5-11 range, with mostly just boys.

I have to completely agree with this ^ point...

I was just throwing out a statistic. I don't have a statistic for 5-11 years of age. Yes, Lego is mostly a boys toy, but what about sports cards? The gap between boys and girls collecting cards is even greater than collecting and playing with Lego.

I still think you can't compare Sports Cards to Lego. They are almost different in every way.

evileddie1313

@BoiseState

Everyone is entitled to their opinion. That is what this forum is about. If you feel resellers have a negative affect on the market that's fine, but that has been discussed in another forum. I think everyone has valid points in this discussion. Lego wasn't voted the greatest toy in 100 years for nothing. I think they have a good business model and I doubt they will stray too much from that. I am optimistic that there won't be a bubble to burst. That is, of course, my opinion.

I agree. You read my mind. I'm just keeping my fingers crossed about the bubble or I will have to answer to one mad wife and explain why I wasted $100,000 on a bunch of plastic bricks. At least that will build one Hell of a MOC!

BoiseState

Absolutely. If we all had the same opinion, this would be a boring place. And yes, definitely fewer girls collecting baseball cards than playing with Lego.

Pitfall69

Yes, it would :)

My wife loves Lego, but rolls her eyes when I buy expensive sets. She just bought a $2,300 camera, so now I have little wiggle room for my hobby.

Here's another difference between Lego and Sports Cards. Sports cards spawned from the sport itself, whereas Lego Amusement Parks were built because of the Love of the Lego brick itself. Lego in fact IS the sports star here.

I am not not a marketing or economic genius. I can't accurately predict what will happen to the Lego market. I hope it stays strong for a long time.

Pitfall69

Absolutely. If we all had the same opinion, this would be a boring place. And yes, definitely fewer girls collecting baseball cards than playing with Lego.

We all will never have the same opinion as long as DarthTexas is roaming the forums:)

Brickarmor

LFT said something a looong time ago that stuck with me: if you need it (Lego reselling) to work out, you probably shouldn't do it. That's more or less the quote. But I DO need it to work out, not for profits or paying the bills but so that I can dive headfirst into the hobby and break even. I don't think anyone can become any sort of reseller without being moderately well off in the first place, so it would seem to me both safer and funner (more fun?) to hedge your bets and keep investments on a level congruous with how much Lego you could actually keep, bubble or not. When you've filled a closet and then a room and then an outbuilding and a shed and the attic, you're banking pretty heavily on the notion that today's kids (have you seen them?!) will give a fig for Lego tomorrow, what with all the confounded Ataris and gizmos and gadgets. Hence the myopic focus on the product (outstanding Lego sets) needs to be complemented with a comprehensive and objective socioeconomic theory of the public... But I'm with all the finger-crossers: it's sweet now; tomorrow...?

BoiseState

Yep.. I sure hope it stays on the path that it's at now, but I wouldn't put money on it. Kids are notoriously fickle, and they're the target group. Only time will tell.

Pitfall69

Yes, I have seen the kids today. It is real scary. It's like the Brady Bunch and The ADDams family are living under the same roof.

Pitfall69

I do believe in the notion that it takes money to make money, but I don't think many people would be able to make a living buying and selling Lego. I think it is great for a side business or for "breaking even" I sell Legos here and there, but I do it so I can buy even more Lego.

BoiseState

Me too. I sell Lego to buy more Lego, not to pay the bills.

evileddie1313

Some kids are tools, no doubt, but LEGO bricks draw intelligent and imaginative kids. Look at the quality of people on these forums. There are some real smart cookies around here. There was another thread awhile back about what jobs do people have on the Brickset forums. Most of the answers ranged from accountants to engineers to web designers...not too shabby.

There is a huge difference between an AFOL and AFOG(Adult Fan Of Gaming) for example. I spent years on the XBOX forums and was constantly amazed at the morons on those forums. Those are the kids you were referring to...LOL

mathew

So for those of you that frequent Lego retail stores in your area, are they usually pretty crowded? I've only been to one Lego store (KC) and it was packed, but it was also grand opening weekend. I know Apple stores are always busy and they are the number one retailer for sales per sq. foot. I think the demos for both Lego and Apple are similar at least for those who are doing the buying (kids obviously don't have the money to buy $400 Death Stars and $500 iPads).