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A sad tale of how other collectibles bubbles have burst...

IstokgIstokg MichiganMember Posts: 2,082
Now I'm not going to be judgemental and say that LEGO will follow this trend... but the exuberance that I see right now with the "Collectible" Minifigs (CMFs), and other very popular LEGO sets came to mind when I read this article about 10 collectible crazes of the past that went bust.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/10-worthless-collectibles-and-the-reasons-they-lost-their-value/ss-BBsV6Ya?ocid=spartandhp

I'm not saying this is going to happen to LEGO... but while many of you have the CMF or other LEGO editions fever... history is a good experience to learn from... rather than to repeat it.

Now granted... this isn't so much a problem for the diehard builders out there (cheaper LEGO would be great!)... but for those expecting a continuation of future increases in value.... a reality check is in order when LEGO factories are working 3 shifts of overtime to crank out CMFs and other LEGO items by the millions.
chuckpcatwranglerMrJ_NYKingAlanIklatu003SumoLegoBuriedinBricksMasterBeefynicoyagomezJackad7TXLegoguyTufted_duckkbenjesLusiferSamAndorbluemodernDedgeckoKevin_HyattVorpalRyu
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Comments

  • klatu003klatu003 Hobbiton, Shire, Middle EarthMember Posts: 717
    That review of former collecting crazes was a fun click.  My LEGO get used.  I don't consider them an investment in anything, but my pleasure.  I did buy a couple of Roseville vases in the day - chipped and cheap.
    catwranglerPitfall69kiki180703chuckpSirBen
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,794
    edited May 2016
    Except the market busts appear on products/areas where nobody predicts it. Lego is in my view a poor example, in particular collectible Minifigures, where the most anything is worth from any series, excluding Mr Gold, is like £20. In short there isn't a long way to fall on Minifigures believe it or not. Even if today you went out and paid £250-300 for a box of more sought after minifigs, say the Lego movie, of the German team, that's still only £4-5 a figure.

    The key thing is always supply and demand, always. Baseball cards, comics and beanie babies, the three most discussed examples, all fell in to a cycle of producing massive 'ltd edition' runs targeted at collectors. There is a golden rule that generally, toys targeted at collectors never end up been worth much, it's the toys meant to be played with that end up producing the surprise valuable hits. 

    What I would love to see, is what % of the Lego market is kids playing with the toys as intended, and what is adult collectors. I would imagine it's still a fraction. In the three examples above where huge collapses occurred, it got to the stage where everybody was buying for investment. When that happens, the writing is on the wall.


    catwranglerkiki180703chuckpDadMosdvsBumblepantsricecakebluemodern
  • MosdvsMosdvs Dallas, TXMember Posts: 61
    Like with anything else what goes up must come down...with that being said...I don't buy legos and sit on it thinking I'm gonna get rich off it...I buy for my own enjoyment of putting them together etc...so to me Lego serves more then 1 purpose.
    catwranglerIstokg
  • IstokgIstokg MichiganMember Posts: 2,082
    There are those who buy and sell LEGO as an investment, thus driving up the price for all buyers on the secondary market.  There's even websites and a book devoted to investing in LEGO.  There are even AFOLs who buy/sell to help pay for their hobby (I see no problem in that)... but eventually the investors will go elsewhere... 

    LEGO collectors who are mainly builders will be happy at this point.  LEGO collectors of complete sets who like to collect them will be less happy.... especially modern sets.  I don't see this affecting the older rare set/part values.  True collectors who spend vast sums to buy a Millennium Falcon, Taj Mahal, or old Modulars, may also be less than happy.

    It's not just investors that leave the market that will affect the LEGO prices.  There are also those who just no longer have enough room for their collections, who will curtail their spending, that would affect prices.  Do people who collect the Modulars have enough space to build/store them as new ones come out in the next 5-7 years?
    brickupdatecatwrangler
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,351
    I have a family member sitting on thousands of pieces of extra car parts.  I suppose that is an investment of some sort, but besides their collector value, they are replacement parts for an actual car, and at the very worst they can be melted for scrap.  

    I think Lego has two of those aspects in common.  (I doubt recycling ABS is very lucrative.)

    This is the age-old question as to what is truly collectible.  I see many parellels to fine art.  We can all agree that anything old and created by a master is forever valuable.  The rest is a crapshoot and subject to the whims of people.

    I've never seen the value of Beanie Babies.  They look like Tsum Tsums and I couldn't convinced to 'invest' in them.  I had a similar relevation with baseball cards.

    I am quickly becoming a proponent of collecting things meaningful to you, and not for their 'collector' value.  If not, then you're just trading commodities.  And there are far better commodities to trade than Lego.  (But to each their own.)

    Will I ever be able to sell my UCS MF for $3500.00? Maybe, but I'm not making financial decisions now based of some expectation later.
    catwranglerJELJ1S
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    I wonder about the Lego Movie and it's effect on the value of Lego sets.  It really increased the overall population of people who purchase and enjoy Lego.  If a majority of those people have seen the whole UCS MF is worth more than gold articles, then I can see this happening.  I guess the question is when will main street start looking to become an investor instead of a consumer for enjoyment.  Yes, the whole Brickpicker movement is still underway, but is the growth in that just a response in general to the overall growth in Lego popularity?  I guess only time will tell.  Most people think I'm crazy when I tell them I have a UCF MF set that is worth $4000 and they tell me to sell it.  It's when those people start going out and trying to buy their own sets to capitalize on something like this, then I will be worried.   
    SumoLegoAanchir
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,204
    Istokg said:
    There are those who buy and sell LEGO as an investment, thus driving up the price for all buyers on the secondary market.  There's even websites and a book devoted to investing in LEGO.  There are even AFOLs who buy/sell to help pay for their hobby (I see no problem in that)... but eventually the investors will go elsewhere... 

    How do investors drive up the price on the secondary market?  Investors are the main source of sets on the secondary market. They may charge more than the set was on the primary market, but that is because it is no longer available on the primary market. Without the investors, the numbers available on the secondary market would be small, and thus prices significantly higher.
    SumoLegopharmjodBumblepants
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,351
    ^ And who would go through the expense of holding sets if they couldn't recoup the costs?

    Then no one would save the sets.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,204
    edited May 2016
    Then there is that dichotomy. If no one saves the sets, it is those sets that (if desirable) that increase most in value. 

    Like any investing, it is buy what you like / know / understand. There are loads of sets I would never touch at RRP as an investment.
    ryjayBumblepants
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,351
    edited May 2016
    ^ Until nobody saves the set, and then it's worth 10x RRP.

    Bwahhahahahaha!

    Construct-a-Zurg shall rise again!

    (I recall Watto's Junkyard and the Wookie Catamaran probably being in that category.)
    Rainstorm26pharmjodgmonkey76Jackad7Bumblepantsandhe
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    The bubble can only burst if you find monetary value in what you collect. I collect for me and my sons to have, build, play, etc. so there is no bubble to be burst.
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    SumoLego said:

    This is the age-old question as to what is truly collectible.
    It's a lot more complicated than that.

    For a start, different people will view the same things in different ways.

    It's also not just about something being a collectible. Is the Millenium Falcon?  To some people, yes, but others would completely lose interest if another version was released - particularly if it was bigger and better.

    Is Café Corner? If you haven't got it, then possibly; if you have got it, then maybe not, unless you gone out and "collected it" by buying at an inflated price.

    Consider CMFs and Mixels. Both are the same sort of price and come in sets that are only available for a limited time. The CMFs however are considered more collectable. That may have something to do with the fact that the Mixels are more selections of bricks than a single object.

    CCC said:

    Without the investors, the numbers available on the secondary market would be small, and thus prices significantly higher.
    Without investors, the numbers available would be higher, simply because there would be less incentive to hang on to them. If it had outlived it's original purpose, then it would be shuffled off in the direction of eBay, or even a charity shop - and the latter couldn't survive unless that principle applied to most other things.

    Without investors, the prices would be lower because few people would pay a premium over buying a brand new set. That's the way it used to be.
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 974
    None of us know....we just guess.....sometimes we are right, sometimes we are wrong.  As in other types of investing, we hope we are right more times then we are wrong.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,204
    ^ For used, yes. But not for new. 
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 974
    ^For all
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,351
    ^ For some, not all, but most.  Except the ones that are the exceptions to the rule.
    sonsofscevapharmjodkiki180703ToddMyersricecake
  • devilheaddevilhead Member Posts: 279
    edited May 2016
    People mistakenly equate 'collectible' with 'valuable' which is great if you're the Franklin Mint or McDonald's or any other entity that markets  crap using the word collectible.

    They are two separate concepts that overlap on occasion.


    Also, that was a sweet Star Wars lunchbox in the article.
    YodaliciousSumoLegopharmjodkiki180703Rainstorm26catwrangler
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,351
    edited May 2016
    ^ Are you saying that 'collectible' or 'limited edition' may be some sort of marketing ploy?

    (Reminds me of a line from an old Seinfeld Stand-Up routine:  "The Ford LTD.  Limited?  Limited only to the number that we can sell!"
    pharmjodandhe
  • dannyrwwdannyrww WisconsinMember Posts: 1,292
    But where is the value in Lego....if you keep sets in boxes to sell for a profit later, then perhaps it will burst. I think most AFOLS tend to either make MOCs or build sets. I don't think will lead to a bubble bursting situation per se.
    Jackad7catwrangler
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,351
    ^ Atleast if you wanted to, you could open the Lego and build the sets.  Or give them to children to play with.  Or spread them outside of your safehouse to slow down your zombie pursuers after the zombie apocalypse.

    With the Beanie Babies... I... suppose you could sniff them...or rub them on your face?  Or burn them for warmth.
    catwranglerVorpalRyu
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,351
    Except for that Princess Diana Beanie Baby.  Now, that's legitimately valuable. 

    Along with those Pokemon the Gathering Cards.  Slam dunk investing your hard-earned cash in those things.
    catwrangler
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Sort of makes you want to treat Pitfall with more respect, doesn't it?
    SumoLegodannyrwwpharmjodkiki180703BumblepantscatwranglerOldfanVorpalRyu
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,351
    ^ Not if he's sniffing the dust.
    pharmjodgmonkey76Ronyarkiki180703BumblepantscatwranglerVorpalRyu
  • TkattTkatt MNMember Posts: 307
    I buy my daughter Beanie Babies from Goodwill for a $1 (50cents on Thursdays). Looking through them for one she wants occupies her while I hunt for Lego. I almost always buy her one since It's really hard to say no to a $1 toy. She actually plays with them- by having tea parties or parades or emergency animal hospital, etc.  The collapse of that fad has really benefitted us. 
    pharmjodRonyarkiki180703Jackad7Pitfall69andhecatwranglerklatu003bluemodern
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    I'm not gonna lie I purchase Lego sets and hold on to resell. But my intention is buy more Lego sets. I would be disappointed not angry if Lego just fell off the spectrum sharply because many sets I have purchased to resell I am not interested in. I am for this reason looking to only purchase sets to resell that I would be willing to build if the crash ever came. I highly doubt Lego will drop however due to consumerism. If anything, less Lego production will increase value the way I see it.
    VorpalRyu
  • flordflord CanadaMember Posts: 657
    I know this has been talked about to death but a crash only comes when supply outweighs demand. Supply of Lego right now is pretty high through a variety of retail channels worldwide. There would have to be a considerable drop-off in demand if there were to be a correction. With Beanie Babies, kids grew up, their interests changed and they stopped caring about them. Same thing to an extent with comics 20+ years ago (speculators sure helped).

    I'm not sure if Lego will find itself in this exact situation. Yes, it's a kids toy, but it also has a significant adult market, whose tastes likely don't change as dramatically as a child's would as they grow into adulthood. Yes, people might stop buying Lego for a variety of reasons, but I don't think this situation is an apples to apples comparison to other collectibles.

    I'm curious to see what will happen with something like Pet Shop. Will it take off in value like other modulars when it is finally gone? Or will it be more moderate? How many hoarders are sitting on 10 copies hoping to strike it rich all at the same time? Pet Shop will be an interesting litmus test for the market.
    VorpalRyu
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,230
    Sort of makes you want to treat Pitfall with more respect, doesn't it?
    More? 

    SumoLego said:
    ^ Not if he's sniffing the dust.
    Don't give me any ideas.
    MattsWhatSumoLegocatwranglerVorpalRyu
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,204
    Good old Oscar Lomax ...

    http://www.lomaxcommodities.co.uk/

    It is surprising how much of the advice could be translated for lego sealed box collectors.
    Bumblepants
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,794
    flord said:
    I know this has been talked about to death but a crash only comes when supply outweighs demand. Supply of Lego right now is pretty high through a variety of retail channels worldwide. There would have to be a considerable drop-off in demand if there were to be a correction. With Beanie Babies, kids grew up, their interests changed and they stopped caring about them. Same thing to an extent with comics 20+ years ago (speculators sure helped).

    I'm not sure if Lego will find itself in this exact situation. Yes, it's a kids toy, but it also has a significant adult market, whose tastes likely don't change as dramatically as a child's would as they grow into adulthood. Yes, people might stop buying Lego for a variety of reasons, but I don't think this situation is an apples to apples comparison to other collectibles.

    I'm curious to see what will happen with something like Pet Shop. Will it take off in value like other modulars when it is finally gone? Or will it be more moderate? How many hoarders are sitting on 10 copies hoping to strike it rich all at the same time? Pet Shop will be an interesting litmus test for the market.

    Correct on supply and demand, but not quite on beanie babies. What actually happened is that the product was originally a toy for kids with changing editions. Once some old out of print bears became valuable and collectors/investors got in the market, then the production focus gradually, and then quite sharply changed to catering for investors, producing constant runs of ltd edition bears. Everybody was talking about what they might be worth, rather than kids playing with them. In short, there ended up been millions of bears kept in pristine condition in collector hands, and then back to your first point, there was only a fraction of the demand for these. It just collapsed in on itself.

    Ill say it again, things marked as 'collectible' are very rarely the items that end up been 'valuable' in the future. If I was teaching my daughter what to pop in the loft, I would steer her well away from anything carrying a 'ltd' 'special' 'collectible' tag. Having said that, she just plays with stuff and loses the accessories normally, so I have given in there. :-)
    SumoLegocatwranglerRainstorm26VorpalRyu
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,204
    richo said:

    Correct on supply and demand, but not quite on beanie babies. What actually happened is that the product was originally a toy for kids with changing editions. Once some old out of print bears became valuable and collectors/investors got in the market, then the production focus gradually, and then quite sharply changed to catering for investors, producing constant runs of ltd edition bears.
    In the last sentence, I'd say collectors and hence investors. Without the collectors, there would be no point in investing. But as you say, as soon as they start doing limited edition runs (of X tens of thousands) as they are collectable rather than for the actual product, the collectors are doomed as are the investors.

    I don't believe lego is like this. The CMF line is close, although I think somewhat different. Although many people collect CMFs and must have them all, there is also a large group of people (me included) that buy for parts. I don't care that they are collectable (to some), I care what is on the torso and face and what accessories they come with. So even CMFs have constituent parts that can be used independently from the collectable.
    catwrangler
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,351
    ^ CMFs are fundamentally produced for the civilians, not for collectors, and aren't limited in their production than any other Lego product.

    And much like Mixels, they are the lowest price point.  It's a cheap impulse buy for the general public.
    Pitfall69VorpalRyu
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,204
    Yes, I agree but they are marketed as "collectables" too, in the sense that there are sets to complete as indicated by the inclusion of checklists with tick boxes in each packet. They are the most similar sets from the lego range to the beanie babies. Yet fundamentally different.
    SumoLegoVorpalRyu
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,351
    edited May 2016
    Absolutely!  I'm sure we'll all shutter when the 'Limited Edition Super-Elite Exclusive Collector Tin w/Bonus Random Insert Series' hit the shelves.

    Then I'll only buy one set instead of three... and expect that collection to drop below RRP in the coming years, and to be worth nothing after the Lego Secondary Market Apocalypse.

    Which reminds me that the CMFs did have the Minifigures Online codes geared to pushing kids to that platform as well.  Another good indictator that Lego isn't primarily (or secondarily) motivated by a collector's market per se.
    VorpalRyu
  • PicopiratePicopirate Member Posts: 312
    I am risk adverse so here is my rule on investment sets... only get sets you would be willing to keep. This applies to both content and quantity of sets.  Granted, I have only purchased and sold one investment set.  I do have a few more in storage but I like them so much that I will likely keep them. The sets are more like fine wine.  If the price goes up, it will be more fun building them.  
    YodaliciouscatwranglersklambVorpalRyu
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,135
    We have already seen a decline in the demand and value of retired Lego sets. Lego is currently saturating the market with a wealth of new sets that buyers no longer need to go to the secondary market. Also Lego has created a more global distribution so fewer foreign markets demand it. Word has spread to every household that Lego has value and more parents and kids are holding onto Lego and buying them. Will the market ever crash like baseball cards or beanie babies? Counterfeits is probably the thing that could potentially kill the minifigure market.
    pharmjodmonkeyhangerVorpalRyu
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,204
    vwong19 said:
    We have already seen a decline in the demand and value of retired Lego sets.
    We have already seen a decline in the demand and value of some retired Lego sets. Others are still doing very nicely.
    pharmjodSumoLegoVorpalRyu
  • MrShinyAndNewMrShinyAndNew Member Posts: 237
    Lego, like anything else, is in demand because it's popular. Right now they are at their highest popularity ever. This leads to high demand, but also high production. The fact that every set has a limited production run means there is potential for any set to become more valuable on the secondary market. But TLC isn't trying to feed that market and so they will undercut it whenever it suits them. The 2004 re-release of the Millennium Falcon decimated the aftermarket price for the 2000 edition. Suddenly everyone who wanted a Falcon could have one (and a better one, at that).

    If Lego's cultural popularity fades, the secondary market will fade and the collectors will fade. With less popularity comes fewer new collectors. Given how popular Lego is now, it's hard to imagine it getting MORE popular over time, so it stands to reason that growth is limited.

    As others have mentioned, at least with Lego the majority of the supply is consumed by non-collectors: those boxes get opened and the pieces become mingled with other sets. But the MISB collectors are perforce the rarest collectors, because they must spend the most money to build up their collections. So demand is limited there as well.

    Consider other toys such as Construx - out of production, but nobody cares so the old sets are impossible to find, used parts are super cheap, and there isn't a strong community trading parts or building creations, or Mega Bloks, still in production but the cultural mindshare is with their competitor and so their old kits are worthless (as, some would argue, are their new kits).

    All collectibles like this are only valuable as long as people want them to be. When Lego declines, as all things do, the collections will be worthless. It would take decades of neglect and Lego's shutdown to cause the world supply to dwindle until old kits start becoming valuable again, just like just about any random toy from long enough ago is valuable to someone somewhere
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    ^But I can imagine it getting a lot more popular with collectors/investors.  Nobody else in my office is insterested at all (and I have some on my desk).  When I wander through with a parcel to post they sometimes ask and when I will tell them I sold a minifigure for £15, they roll their eyes.  If I didn't work here they would have no idea - probably the situation for the vast majority of offices/social groups/pubs.
    If I ask the same people about beanie babys they know they were a collectable thing from a few years ago.
    I don't think the bubble on Lego will burst (yet?) because I don't think we are in it (yet).  It's easy from this side of fence to go 'everyone must have read the article about Lego being worth more than gold' or noting a book has come out on Amazon - but the other side of the fence is different, and has a lot of people on it.  When the shoe-shiners start buying Lego - that's when I'm out.
    catwranglerRainstorm26pharmjod
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    I'm thinking when people are paying 100s of pounds for a plastic minifigure we're definitely in a bubble. Most people, and I suspect most of us, think paying £15 for a plastic minifigure is nuts. 
    catwranglerSumoLego
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    ^that's what I mean though - it's not a bubble that can burst until more people (or maybe more sets/cmfs) are in it.  While it's just a few people paying that much for a Mr Gold it isn't really a bubble is it?  I guess it could still burst but that wouldn't impact on the price of a (e.g) used #8038, it's not even the same thing - it would be like the beanie baby bubble affecting effecting affecting changing the price of all soft toys.  When sets like that are selling for 100s, then we have a burstable bubble that will mean my collection could be worthless, as it is I can happily not have a Mr Gold and a #10179. (OK, not really 'happily', but you know what I mean).
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    I was standing in the Lego aisle a couple of days ago and soccer mom type showed up with her kids. It was their lucky day b/c they were getting some new sets.

    At one point she looked at me and commented something along the lines of "We need to find the good ones. I was listening to the radio and they said that these things are worth more than gold now!!!"

    At the point your average non-collector, mother of three starts hearing about the investing potential of Lego then I think its safe to say we are in a bubble.
    SumoLegochuckpMattDawsonKevin_Hyattgmonkey76VorpalRyu
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    ^ I think we may be in the early stages....I agree with @MattsWhat that a lot of people have no idea about the Lego better investment than gold stuff.  But the question back to you is, do you think that the family you overheard is going to start buying more and become speculators?  I doubt they will.  Are they buying extra sets and leaving them in the box? Or are they just buying the good sets and opening and playing with them.
    VorpalRyu
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,794
    I work closely with about 30 people who know I like and collect Lego. All are very bright with good jobs and plenty of disposable income. Nobody else has a remote interest in Lego collecting/investing, whatever word you want to use.

    Investors in the market who then resell for profit are something of an oxymoran if you ask me. They are blamed for high after market prices, but ironically provide the service of the after market sets. It's arguable without lots of resellers after market prices might be higher, strange as that sounds. 
    VorpalRyu
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,926
    Other thing to keep in mind that we can be in a bubble in one area of Lego, but not another. With th Disney CMF, we are talking about Disney. Looking at the tsum tsum craze, a large number of the people were buying them to resell, because it 'next hot Disney thing'. 

    The question to me is how many resellers have jumped on Disney CMF.  Considering that a number of Disney fans have come out of the woodwork for this line, it may not have been hit as heavy with resellers like tsum tsum was for a while. If Lego can keep pumping these out and thre is not a shortage, then, the reseller bubble will burst on the Disney CMF. The resellers will sell them, but for not as large a profit. If there is a shortage, well, a series 2 Disney line will have just that many resellers jumping out of the woodwork at the same time other Disney fans are. 
    catwranglerVorpalRyu
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    edited May 2016
    Aanchir said:
    CircleK said:
    I was standing in the Lego aisle a couple of days ago and soccer mom type showed up with her kids. It was their lucky day b/c they were getting some new sets.

    At one point she looked at me and commented something along the lines of "We need to find the good ones. I was listening to the radio and they said that these things are worth more than gold now!!!"

    At the point your average non-collector, mother of three starts hearing about the investing potential of Lego then I think its safe to say we are in a bubble.
    But how serious do you think she was about that? If she was there with her kids I'm guessing they were the primary reason for her to be checking out the LEGO aisle. If she's just commenting on some wacky thing she heard on the radio and not literally stockpiling unopened sets, then the radio story probably didn't influence her buying habits, other than just assuring her that buying LEGO for her kids instead of other toys wasn't a bad call.

    There might be details in your story I'm missing, but just hearing it from you it sounds like the same way a person buying a bottle of red wine might joke to the shopper next to them that "scientists are now saying this stuff is good for you!" They're presumably still buying wine because they like wine, not because of some obscure, vastly exaggerated health benefits. But the irony of learning that a personal indulgence might have real benefits after all gives them something to joke about.

    Yes, I think it was exactly as you described.  She was just a mom buying Lego for her kids and decided to make small talk. She wasn't there stockpiling sets for resale or anything.

    Maybe it was just the popularity of the "gold" story, but I'm hearing about Lego investing a lot more from people who are not us. People outside of the hobby now have this thought that Lego is a worthy investment. Bubbles come to be when everyone starts thinking alike. When everyone starts thinking that [insert asset class here] is a good thing, then that is a good indication of a bubble. I know we are not at "everyone" levels yet.  I think we are getting closer to that though just based on my own experience of having randos talk about it with me b/c they know I like Lego.

    My original post was meant to be tongue and cheek. My point was that if the average lady stopping by Target on her way to tee-ball practice thinks lego investing is a great thing then so does everyone else. And if everyone else thinks that then we most likely have a bubble.
  • CupIsHalfEmptyCupIsHalfEmpty CanadaMember Posts: 547
    When the kids down my street start removing CMF's from their foil packs with tweezers and carefully placing them into collector display cases without ever playing with them, Is when the bubble will burst. Until then, the product is being used as intended, and any secondary market value is driven by a real demand, not speculation.
    MattDawsonVorpalRyu
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