What do you feel will be on sale on Dec. 26th, 2011?

coolpix

I've been a LEGO aficionado since October 2009, but only now (thanks to this amazing Forum), I am being able to follow the sales and actually see how the previous sales had played out thanks to the testimonials of some of the more experienced LEGO collectors that post on this Forum.

Back then I had no LEGO store near me. The closest one was at Downtown Disney 4 hours away from my home. Now I have 2 stores near: Sunrise, FL and Aventura, FL, and I am planning to take advantage of it on December, 26th, 2011.

So, what sets do you feel we can expect to be on sale for 50% or better that day? Here's my list:

The easy ones:

Emerald Night
Winter Village Toy Shop
Winter Village Bakery
Winter Village Post Office
Fire Brigade
Medieval Market Village
City Advent Calendar
Star Wars Advent Calendar
Star Wars Tantive IV
Star Wars Obi-Wan Jedi Starfighter

The not so easy to predict ones:

All 3 Xmas ornament balls (Gold, Green and Red)
Santa Magnet
Holiday Set #1 and Set #2
Shuttle Expedition
All Star Wars and Atlantis Magnets
6743 Creator Street Speeder
7639 City Camper
7641 City Corner
City Seaplane
City Repair Truck
City Tank Truck
All remaining Toy Story sets (I think the Super Heroes will fill this spot)
Rebel Trooper Battlepack
Snow Trooper Battlepack

Imperial Flagship will be done before that, so I did not included it in.

What do you guys think?

starfire2

I am hoping the Grand Emporium, Fire Brigade, and Star Wars Landspeeders go for 50% off.

jocappy

How long does the sale usually run, just that day?

coolpix

How long does the sale usually run, just that day?

That's a good question. I don't know, but it seems items remain discounted until they sell out. It's a clearance sale most of the times, I think.

coolpix

@starfire2 I am hoping for Grand Emporium too. Purchased my first Fire Brigade today, but if it goes for 50% off, I'll grab another 2.

Odindusk

Does anyone think that any remaining Atlantis sets might go? There's only four available sets at [email protected] right now. Seems like that theme is definitely done for.

coolpix

@Odindusk I agree. I would not be surprised if all Atlantis sets would go now. I've been buying heavily discounted Atlantis sets on the big box stores the past few months, so this theme may be entirely 50% off at LEGO stores on Dec. 26th.

Yellowcastle

I'll stake my reputation on the Grand Emporium not being discounted. Last year, the Green Grocer showed up on sale but had long since been unavailable so it was mostly moo...you know, like a cow's opinion, who cares? ;o) It's also important to note that the sale last year started early so a lot of us got a very late jump. Starting 12/24/11, I would stay vigilant in checking their online sales and deals page. Additionally, if you can find time, the day after Christmas is just such a great day to actually visit the store.

coolpix

Yes, I don't think I'll buy anything online, I am aiming at the local store, and this store is a new one, mostly visited by South American tourists, on a mall that has mostly outlet stores, so I don't think I'll have too much competition on a Monday 9:00 am, plus most of the times items show as out of stock online, but the stores have plenty of them. I've heard that happened to Green Grocer last year (if only I had a time machine... Green Grocer would be MINE! LOL!)

Odindusk

Anyone know if any Technic sets were 50% off last year?

rocao

I don't think any of the Winter Village sets will be clearanced to 50% or more since TLG has demonstrated they will bring back sets from previous years (winter toy shop came back each of the past two years and the bakery came back this year). Last year the Bakery saw a discount of 30% (later than December 26th) and then went back into inventory.

The sets that were on sale during Black Friday seem shoe-ins for clearance and discontinuation. By inverse logic, MMV may be staying with us into 2012.

jonboy2000

Any star wars set in a white box so I've been told + any older boxes. I was also told that the at-at is being discontinued due to the number of complaints about its stability although I don't know if there is any truth in that or if it will be on sale.

The_Brick_Builder

Is there going to be any City sets 50% off? If there is, I'll buy their whole stock clean :)

gruetzmacherd

@Odindusk, 8258 was on clearance for 50% off last Christmas in the US. Set 8043 on clearance this year wouldn't surprise me...

dremel99

I'm hoping Amazon puts up the remaining IF sets on sale.

llanowarsoldier

I can see Obi Wan's Jedi Starfighter being 50% off as that thing just collects dust on the shelves. Wouldn't mind seeing Apple Tree House at 50% also since we are getting another Creator House this coming year.

adello25

Are these sales going to be online as well as in store?

kylejohnson11

@adello25 they will be online. From what I read and remember from last year, they will show up online either Christmas Day or Christmas Eve.

madforLEGO

I think it is safe to say that most of the heavily discounted sets will be ones on their way out..
Emerald night is already gone, Imperial flagship is already gone....
I think the Camper will be on sale if they still have them, the city corner. Technic Crane, Technic Excavator, Maybe Lego Airport...
Fire Brigade (if it lasts). I have been told by LEGO store employees that the FB is on its way out.. but again that is opinion I think more than fact.

Again any old sets that are long in tooth..
I expect the Death Star and Dropship if still around, to be discounted possibly as they probably want to get rid of those..
Again only speculation, but I doubt anything sticking around will be discounted...

Also I notice that the store by me still has toy shoppes so I am guessing those will be discounted again as well (at least in the store).
Just because something is not availalbe online does not mean it will not be in the store, but I am guessing that the FB will be gone before then.... If not, expect a feeding frenzy

LegoFanTexas

If FB is not gone, it will be the first minute the stores open. :)

madforLEGO

Well yeah, if someone decides to purchase 15 of them when the doors open.....
I can only hope LEGO would limit purchases, at least in the stores...

LegoFanTexas

Why would a business want to limit sales? I never did understand that concept. Either an item is for sale or it isn't. The idea of limiting items seems so anti-business to me.

Yes, I understand why Walmart limits the $188 LCD TV on Black Friday to 1 per customer, it is a draw to get customers in the door. Clearance sales and general sales are not however...

streeker

^ because otherwise you'll have grown adults bitching each other out in a children's toy shop.

llanowarsoldier

If my Lego Store has City Corners and they are on sale I'm gonna pick up 3 of them.

madforLEGO

Why would a business want to limit sales? I never did understand that concept. Either an item is for sale or it isn't. The idea of limiting items seems so anti-business to me.

Yes, I understand why Walmart limits the $188 LCD TV on Black Friday to 1 per customer, it is a draw to get customers in the door. Clearance sales and general sales are not however...

A world of difference if someone wants 3-4 (which is still a lot) as opposed to someone wanting to clear out an entire store to try to resell on eBay.
You basically say 'tough luck' to someone who may have just wanted ONE for the kids or themselves but were waiting for a better price to pull the trigger.

I know LEGO understands this as they did limit to 5 per and a limit of 5000 during the pre Brick Friday sale, noting that resellers are one of the reasons for that policy.

I do get why people want to-either for resale or because of parts for other things that they want to build. I do buy duplicates of sets, but I'm not running into a LEGO store first thing when they open asking for all their stock of 75 dollar EN's (for example) sets either.

1265

Why would a business want to limit sales? I never did understand that concept. Either an item is for sale or it isn't. The idea of limiting items seems so anti-business to me.

Yes, I understand why Walmart limits the $188 LCD TV on Black Friday to 1 per customer, it is a draw to get customers in the door. Clearance sales and general sales are not however...

You answered your own question in the second paragraph. Best to satisfy many, than satisfy a few.

legoDad

My hunch at my local shop I'm betting any Atlantis sets for sure, Pharaoh's Quest, some Alien Conquest(not HQ), all the games except Heroica, Star Wars Rebel Trooper and Snow Trooper Battle Packs, Hero Factory 2.0's, any holiday related items, small to mid-range PotC and Harry Potter sets, Emerald Night, Imperial Flagship (maybe on this one), Toy Story, small to medium Creator and Technic sets, Star Wars Bounty Hunter Assault and T-6 Shuttle...and I bet most of the first run Ninjago single character spinners.
They gotta' make run for all the new Ninjago, DINO, Star Wars, Friends, DC Heroes...etc...

Alczervik

Yes I agree all Pharaoh and Atlantis are out also pop. City corner maybe, I also think the yellow cargo will go soon, there's got to be some star wars maybe battle of endor. The creator house seems a good bet. I would be happy with any city on sale really I would be ecstatic of Hp or modular. We will find out in 3 weeks :)

Jasen

I can see Obi Wan's Jedi Starfighter being 50% off as that thing just collects dust on the shelves. Wouldn't mind seeing Apple Tree House at 50% also since we are getting another Creator House this coming year.

There's a new one? I haven't heard anything about this yet? Any pics (mod-allowed ;) ) I know as sure as the suns there will be another but yeah.
I already have 3 Apple Tree Houses but would love more, a great little ol' house for parts :D

madforLEGO

^--- I think it is another type of summer house isn't it?

Ma1234

Shuttle Expedition isn't being discontinued.

The bakery and post office will be 30% off.

coolpix

^- Shuttle Expedition surely isn't being discontinued this time around, but it seems that my local store has so many of them, and they are piled up on the floor of the store, that it seems to me that this is going to have at least a 25% off on Dec. 26th, just to lower the stock level a bit, and then come back to regular price. I feel the same about the Winter Village Post Office and Winter Village Bakery. Just my feeling though.

derAuge

As I live in Germany where we don't have these day after christmas sales I can only hope that the european Amazons mirror some of the prices.

llanowarsoldier

I can see Obi Wan's Jedi Starfighter being 50% off as that thing just collects dust on the shelves. Wouldn't mind seeing Apple Tree House at 50% also since we are getting another Creator House this coming year.

There's a new one? I haven't heard anything about this yet? Any pics (mod-allowed ;) ) I know as sure as the suns there will be another but yeah.
I already have 3 Apple Tree Houses but would love more, a great little ol' house for parts :D

Yup, it is called Summer House...and well with the name of the set it'll probably be a late spring or early summer release. Also with the way Lego is going I doubt there will be any baseplate with this one also.

prevere

Yup, it is called Summer House...and well with the name of the set it'll probably be a late spring or early summer release. Also with the way Lego is going I doubt there will be any baseplate with this one also.

Summer Home? Sounds like the Beach House, which is a great set, although without a beach baseplate. Booooooo!

Would love to see a "treehouse" set, apartment complex, or millionaire home (aka Richie Rich).

Farmer_John

Somebody (I can't find who it was when I search) put a list of what was going to be on sale Black Friday...and they were exactly correct. If that person puts out another list for after-Christmas, I plan heed their advice!

legoDad

@Farmer_John...who is this Nostradamus of the brick you speak of?

sidersdd

The Black Friday list was know beforehand because LEGO posted it on their Facebook wall thing little by little leading up to the day.
http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/comment/28164#Comment_28164

rocao

^ I was just about to type that you were probably the Nostradamus :)

streeker

In retrospect, LEGO was incredibly savvy to clear out their 10xxx direct sets during Black Friday at 30% off, rather than wait until the 26th to offer a deeper 50% discount like they did last year. They know that that their MSRP prices can't compete with the big retailers offering B1G1/2, B2G1, 25% off, etc. This pre-emptive strike of sorts maximized their margin since many of the sets originally offered are now sold out, which then makes me wonder exactly what large sets will be left for sale this 26th... if any.

Yellowcastle

@sidersdd has the mutant ability of "sales finding." Unfortunately, sidersdd only completed 3 years at Charles Xavier's School for the Gifted before dropping out to pursue a music career. ;o)

coolpix

@streeker probably at [email protected] everything that's retiring will be sold out before the day after Xmas, however, if you live near a LEGO store, you may find, if not all, most of the 10XXX sets the will retire at 50%. My local store has about 20 Emerald Nights in stock, plus this store is not visited too often by AFOLs, but mostly by foreigner tourists that are looking for the run-off-the-mill Police Stations, Kingdom Castles or Star Wars sets. I am hoping to score a couple more ENs at 50%, plus a couple of Winter Toy Shop (I've counted 30 to 40 of this set on the floor only), on the 26th.

streeker

^You've got a good point, and it probably would be more relevant to me if LEGO actually had A store in the whole damn country (FR), but as quite a few members are not lucky enough to live near a LEGO shop, [email protected] was our best bet. My contention still stands: LEGO still made more money by clearing out their big sets earlier at a lesser discount, online and in-store. But I agree, come Boxing Day, you'll find in stores the direct sets at 50% off. Just get there early, keep your head down, and mind the elbows. Good luck!

Farmer_John

@Farmer_John...who is this Nostradamus of the brick you speak of?

I don't remember, but I'm going to research it better. The person obviously had inside information and was spot on with EVERYTHING he listed. Seems like it was on a black friday blog. The only thing that wasn't on his list (that I remember) was the AT-AT, and that one wasn't put on until a couple days after black friday.

Farmer_John

There are several SW sets that probably could go. As much as I like it, the landspeeder could be one. It's been around a couple years at a reasonable price, and TLG could probably have a better profit margin on a different set. Obi-Wan's set is costly and lame...it's probably gone. Cad Bane and the tank that were on sale at 30% off could go too. Finally, some of the smaller SW sets that have been around a couple years could go. I don't see the DS going just yet, but within a year perhaps. Just my guesses on the SW list.

andystar

Any thoughts on 10212 SW Imperial Shuttle? Wasn't this set released around same time as 10210 Imperial Flagship, and that one is now EOL (end of life). I also have seen the IS (imperial shuttle) on sale at most major retailers for $219 for a few weeks now (walmart, target, amazon, but not TRU).

Has the IS been a high demand set? From everything I've seen here it seems like all the attention is focused on the Deathstar. In addition, it appears the DeathStar will be hanging out for another year, so will LEGO keep both the DS and IS now that Super Star Destroyer is out?

Food for thought, comments most welcome.

brickupdate

@andystar Not sure about Imperial Shuttle, I've certainly not heard any rumors on that one retiring. I think that with the Imperial Flagship, there are now two other ships in the PotC line, so a third ship was merely competition. For Imperial Shuttle, I have one here that I need to find the time to build!

madforLEGO

In retrospect, LEGO was incredibly savvy to clear out their 10xxx direct sets during Black Friday at 30% off, rather than wait until the 26th to offer a deeper 50% discount like they did last year. They know that that their MSRP prices can't compete with the big retailers offering B1G1/2, B2G1, 25% off, etc. This pre-emptive strike of sorts maximized their margin since many of the sets originally offered are now sold out, which then makes me wonder exactly what large sets will be left for sale this 26th... if any.

There are usually a few medium to large sets sold at a decent cut rate.. if Hogwarts castle is still around Id say that is a prime candidate for a 50% off if I saw one... same if there is any PoP and maybe PoTC which means those ships may be at a great price (as the only other set to come out after the first sets was the Black Pearl and nothing else)
Perhaps the LEGO city airport as well, and or the Yellow Cargo train as I do not see LEGO having two Cargo trains forever.....

doriansdad

From the OP's list:

Emerald Night and Winter Toyshop are retired already. Maybe a few sets left instore but doubt it. Bakery retires next year and Post Office in 2 years so no sale there. MMV and FB retire this time next year so no sale their either. Advent calendars will of course be on sale everywhere. Tantive looks like the only good chance of a solid sale. City Corner and City Camper also retired already.

Marketing heads got smart and learned alot from last year at the TLG. Slim pickings from now on at 50% off. Next year looks like Black Friday will be a good chance to snag MMV, FB and Bakery at 25% off.

madforLEGO

From the OP's list:

Emerald Night and Winter Toyshop are retired already. Maybe a few sets left instore but doubt it. Bakery retires next year and Post Office in 2 years so no sale there. MMV and FB retire this time next year so no sale their either. Advent calendars will of course be on sale everywhere. Tantive looks like the only good chance of a solid sale. City Corner and City Camper also retired already.

Marketing heads got smart and learned alot from last year at the TLG. Slim pickings from now on at 50% off. Next year looks like Black Friday will be a good chance to snag MMV, FB and Bakery at 25% off.

The LEGO store by me does have a ton of Toy Shoppes BUT they are not on sale.. so while they are sold out online you will probably see them listed, but listed on sale as 'Sold out' This is so there is a uniform price on merchandise whether in the store, or online... So while it is 'Sold out' online, store may have stock that they will price at the sale price...

Plus I have a suspicion that more will be out there than people are giving credit for... The Technic excavator has been out fo a while now, and the Bank which is a target exclusive, and we all know what happens with City Target exclusives... as well... so there are sets that could be discounted still (Then again there are still 2-3 weeks before this sale occurs so anything is possible

Ma1234

From the OP's list:

Emerald Night and Winter Toyshop are retired already. Maybe a few sets left instore but doubt it. Bakery retires next year and Post Office in 2 years so no sale there. MMV and FB retire this time next year so no sale their either. Advent calendars will of course be on sale everywhere. Tantive looks like the only good chance of a solid sale. City Corner and City Camper also retired already.

Marketing heads got smart and learned alot from last year at the TLG. Slim pickings from now on at 50% off. Next year looks like Black Friday will be a good chance to snag MMV, FB and Bakery at 25% off.

The post office and bakery will be on sale as holiday items, but, like last year, probably 30% off.