Best time to buy retired sets

Gruff666

So for the past 3 months i have been watching a few sets on eBay, particularly Haunted House and Fire Brigade. Before Christmas i could have picked them up for around £200 but since the turn of the year they seem to have increased by £50 and in less numbers. Is this common this time of year? Are they likely to rise in the next few months and fall again next Christmas?

graphite

It is possible they fall around Christmas due to a lot of resellers trying to get theirs sold at the holiday time.  It probably isn't likely that they'll drop back to those prices next Christmas.  The prices will probably move up a little and might drop from the new price point at Christmas but that price is almost definitely going to be higher than it is now.

Dawn

From my experience in following/looking at retired sets, they always go up or stay put at best, unless there is a re-release (like Toy Shop).
So bottom line, if you want them buy them now, they will only go up.

Gruff666

Thanks both, guess I will have to bite the bullet soon and pick up both

luckyruss

Before they retire, in answer to your original question!

AllBrick

luckyruss said:

Before they retire, in answer to your original question!

Beat me to it, can't get better than that, except for a time when you have money as well.

TheLoneTensor

For those sets?  Now.

datsunrobbie

Yesterday always seems like the best time, unless I bought it yesterday, which usually means the bottom will fall out in 3, 2, 1...

Yodalicious

Honestly, the best time to buy a retired set is the moment you decide you truly want to buy it. There is no proven method as to when to purchase because each set is different and so is the demand that goes along with it. BUT...

...most retired sets will go up or at least stay relatively steady. Most do not go down. Sure, some do and eventually the bubble could burst, but for the most part you're looking at something that was off the market for 6 months, then 12 months, then 2 years, then 5 years. With each passing day, you're getting further from the last day it was available through retail. Again, that doesn't mean it'll cost you more tomorrow or the day after, but it's a lot less likely that it'll cost you less.

So if you want those sets, get them now and don't obsess later over the "should've, would've, could've."

catwrangler

I'm glad to see this thread as I have a related question about how long just-retired sets tend to remain available from Amazon and high street chains (with rare exceptions, I just can't budget for sets from resellers).

Specifically, I'm looking at 31025, which is down from £34.99 to £28 on Tesco ("Hurry while stocks last"), and just below that on Amazon. I'm trying to decide whether to chance it getting cheaper still later in the year, or just buy the thing now and avoid it going out of stock altogether. Does anyone else lunge at discounts on newly retired stuff in January, or is it worth hedging my bets a little?

CurvedRoadPlate

If I really want a set I'll pick it up. I have taken the risk of seeing if a set is going to go lower and missed out on the set entirely. Only you can answer if a deal is good enough to pull the trigger or at what price a set is worth it to you.  Some sets (I'm looking at you Chima) I only consider at a deep discount. 

princedraven

@catwrangler as you say it is less than £28 on Amazon right now, so that is over 20% off.
If you are holding on waiting on it getting to 30% off, you are only talking about saving yourself around £3.30, is it really worth worrying about, especially for something that has retired.
If you want it enough to post on here about it I would say bite the bullet, and if it drops a tad more just tell yourself it was worth the extra few quid to build it a few weeks/months earlier.

Renny

The only time I have seen a retired set go down in price is when a re-release or newer version of the set has been announced.   Other then that they usually just go up in price.  Initially there is generally a spike in price increase then it becomes a slower gradual climb.  Obviously you have your duds that go nowhere fast so if the set you want retires and the price barely budges, then feel free to take your time.

Fauch

there may be new sellers appearing now and then and just looking for a quick sell and setting their price slightly below everyone else. thinking about bricklink, it's really easy to see how prices evolve there.

catwrangler

Thanks for the advice, guys - I'm going to be more proactive about acquiring newly retired sets from now on!

AdeelZubair

Basically your too late, your wallet will cry!

Dawn

catwrangler said:

Thanks for the advice, guys - I'm going to be more proactive about acquiring newly retired sets from now on!

You should be pro-active about acquiring not yet retired sets :)

catwrangler

Well, those too, but I'm on a very limited budget so I'm inclined to nab whatever will be gone soonest! I ordered the Mountain Hut last night - it didn't hurt that I found a forgotten Tesco gift card either, so got it for £8!