Big sets - what order i should buy them in?

chrisalddin

hi, as i am just only coming out of my lego dark-age, and am now going to pick up sets,
i need to work out what order to get the older set's that are at most risk of retiring before i can get them,
so what is the order i you think i should get the following big set's

179.99 71006: The Simpsons™
169.99 71016: The Kwik-E-Mart
169.99 70751: Temple of Airjitzu
132.99 10243: Parisian Restaurant
119.99 10244 Fairground Mixer
119.99 10232: Palace Cinema

the order i have put the set's in is high to low price.
the Modular Building set's all be it old are still in the 2016 catalog, and should be safe for 1 more year.
but working out what set's to get in what order is why i am here

so please advise.
thanks in advance

tallblocktoo

This is purely based on which set I liked the most of those you have listed.  This would be the Temple of Airjitzu.  It's a fabulous piece with a large number of minifigures.  Others may advise better on which may retire the earliest.  

chrisalddin

tallblocktoo said:

This is purely based on which set I liked the most of those you have listed.  This would be the Temple of Airjitzu.  It's a fabulous piece with a large number of minifigures.  Others may advise better on which may retire the earliest.  

don't think i can blame you it on that, it is on that list because it look's so good,
but it is also one of the newer released sets

pharmjod

Simpson's house, palace cinema and mixer could all realistically go soon. The others I would expect have at least a year. Just my opinion though.

chrisalddin

i think palace cinema, is ok, for now, the Pet Shop will go before the palace cinema dose, Pet Shop is now over 4 years old. unless lego are going to keep it so people can be used it in MOC's it is the most easy one to MOC from, but saying that i not going to hold out to long on palace cinema.

thanks  all the advise helps.

pharmjod

Since you are new to this, I will just say two words: Town Hall. LEGO is no longer reliable regarding retirement order. Palace Cinema or Pet Shop could both go at any time or at the same time. Even the Airjitzu temple could be short lived if it's sales numbers aren't what they hoped or expected. 

TigerMoth

TLG were never reliable in this regard. We'd like them to be, and so try and hang patterns on what they do. With what is a relatively small number of sets in a particular range, we can keep trying to tweak the rules to make them fit, and then generally forget that we've done so!

Palace Cinema vs. Pet Shop? One of the "other rules" is about there not being two corner buildings. Brick Bank is a corner, which might put Palace Cinema on borrowed time. Might.

We all have our own likes and dislikes but have really no idea how that translates into what TLG see. If stocks are starting to dwindle, should they invest in another production run? They don't want a repeat of the Exo Suit, particularly with a larger set.

Fairground Mixer and Simpson's House have been around a similar length of time, and must have a reasonable appeal because there have been follow-ups to both. However,  I would have thought that the latter might have a greater appeal, particularly to non-AFOL adults, and therefore be around for longer. On the other hand, perhaps Fairground Mixer is a must-have for some because it has a greater play value.

Fairground Mixer and Palace Cinema are probably most at risk; Temple of Airjitzu, the least. Having said that, if you try and double-guess what's going to happen, it's probably only a matter of time before you get it wrong because you're not just double-guessing what TLG intends but what everybody else is double-guessing.

madforLEGO

Town Hall was 199.99 USD and not a strong seller, by all accounts the other mods are (and are only 149.99- 169.99 USD). I still think people should not be using the TH as an example for every mod to retire afterwards.

TigerMoth

madforLEGO said:

I still think people should not be using the TH as an example for every mod to retire afterwards.

The point about Town Hall is simply that nothing is reliably predictable.

chrisalddin

TigerMoth said:

madforLEGO said:

I still think people should not be using the TH as an example for every mod to retire afterwards.

The point about Town Hall is simply that nothing is reliably predictable.

and the Quote of 01/01/2016 is "nothing is reliably predictable"
you win a cyber cookie.

but i get what you are saying,
how about?
is a good rule of thumb "if it is in the catalog it will last 16 weeks+?"

Pumpkin_3CK5

1Temple of Airjitzu, 2Palace Cinema, 3Parisian Restaurant. That's also just based on which one I like.

chrisalddin

Pumpkin_3CK5 said:

1Temple of Airjitzu, 2Palace Cinema, 3Parisian Restaurant. That's also just based on which one I like.

it may just come down to, what one's i could live with out,
i Could live without AirJitzu, but seeing as it lego [email protected]/store only right now.
in half a year, one of the toy shops will get it. to it safe for the time being.
it is a set i just can not see not going to to toy shops for next christmas.

there all a hard call's but with luck i have them all by May. or maybe all but 1. by the start of May.

TigerMoth

Four months? Probably.

Something else to consider is what is likely to happen to their prices on the secondary market after they are retired. In other words, if you miss one, how much would it cost to rectify that. The modulars are likely to start climbing because there will be people who want them as part of the series. The mixer is probably unlikely to do in the same way because, at the moment, it's just a set that you either have or you don't and people are more likely to shrug than pay megabucks. A few years down the road when there's a few more fairground attractions, the situation might be different.

chrisalddin

i could probably spend 40 a week on lego all year long. bearing any back-hole money-pit's coming to get me. i don't know what others could spend a week on lego, but one key point, i don't drive, i don't have a car. i don't have to pay tax on a car. or the cost of petrol. or the cost of the tax on the petrol, (this is the sad but save me money point "i still live with my parents." who still pay the bills) so all the little tax's soon add up...

btw i know tax's are needed, but there are stuff out there with tax on top of tax, on top of tax, you know there is a Tax on driving in London. has any one ever counted the number of Tax's you pay to have a car? anyone? on top of said car being over £6000 new? is that with the VAT or without. who can tell.

sorry going to get of my tax soapbox now. i was reminded of the uk VAT tax hike that was done to us here in the uk in the last 5 - 6 years? when it jumped from 17.5% to 20% after a drop to 15% for 1 year and some bull about it going down again after 2 or 3 years, i don's know if prices of stuff now absorb the +2.5% it went up by or if we still paying that added price on all items.

ryjay

Just buy the one you want most and forget about the rest.   Build it, display it, enjoy it, and then....if you want more, then buy the one you want most at that time.

If you buy the Simpson's House first, that may move you towards the Quick E Mart as your next purchase, or if you start with a modular you might find you want to continue with just modulars and forget about those other items altogether.

empire

If you're planning on buying them all,  then oldest first. I don't collect modulars (yet), but I have the Simpsons house and Kwik-E-Mart, as well as Airjitzu, and they're all pretty awesome sets with some really nice detail. It's an expensive hobby, buy what you like first.

chrisalddin

ryjay said:

Just buy the one you want most and forget about the rest.   Build it, display it, enjoy it, and then....if you want more, then buy the one you want most at that time.

If you buy the Simpson's House first, that may move you towards the Quick E Mart as your next purchase, or if you start with a modular you might find you want to continue with just modulars and forget about those other items altogether.

thats good for some people but, i am an odd ball.
i don't like to wait for stuff. i am quite bad at waiting.
yet, i am willing to wait to get XXX set if it ups the odd's of YYY set still being sold.
and then there are like 8 sets that that i am after that almost never go on sale and when them do there sold out in lass then 1 day.
i am yet to spot this type of sale before there sold out.
i do get what you saying, but with that plan (and i did plan that out) i noted that it was just before September before i got the Palace Cinema, and that did not sit right with me.
i can sit here and say Palace Cinema should still be sold in one years time, in all the ways i can think off. but a lot can happen from now until September 1st. the risk is just to high,
Next year, i should have a more open to the i WANT that lets Get that! way of shopping. it just right now i trying to catch up with 4 years of Big set's in 20 weeks or so

so i making plan after plan, trying to find the best plan, to get the set's i wish to have,

you know a BIG Loto Win would be so so nice.
then i could get a new house and have a big room with all the lego i can fit in there,

ok daydream over

BTW has anyone ever just looked at the lego [email protected] and added up all the set's them wish to get if them got a Big Loto win?
i think i got to £8000 before i stops as i could see it passing £10000 before i was done.

chrisalddin

empire said:

If you're planning on buying them all,  then oldest first. I don't collect modulars (yet), but I have the Simpsons house and Kwik-E-Mart, as well as Airjitzu, and they're all pretty awesome sets with some really nice detail. It's an expensive hobby, buy what you like first.

some good advise