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Perceived secondary market values
Hi, having only recently got into Lego , didn't have a dark age and not having children hadn't been info a toy shop in years, wasn't even aware of Lego Star Wars until my brother showed me his UCS Falcon. This got me hooked on Star Wars and the modulars. I purchased all the current sets I wanted and started looking for the ones I missed, and was shocked by the prices being asked on eBay , I say asked as after watching countless items inc Haunted House, Green Grocer etc for the past year or two it appears they hardly ever sell, with the exception of the aforementioned Falcon. It appears to me that investing in these items does not guarantee any sort of return, the book price might be 2 grand but getting it seems impossible. And it seems it's going to get harder to achieve a return these days with everyone buying 1to build and 1 for the lost, interested to hear your views on this.
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Happy reading ;o)
Of course there are also sets you know aren't going to do anything in the aftermarket, but some fools will dive on them because they're clearing them out for 25-33% of the original price. Those fools will figure that "Lego investing is a licence to print money, I'll wait six months & wack them up on eBay for double retail price, ka-ching!!!"
The sold recently button also helps me see what certain items have been selling at recently so I know exactly how to price items.
While there are still a few of the absurd markings way above their current resale value, others still end up selling.
I have no idea how many of these Duplo bricks were made. There are only a few for sale at Brickink or eBay, and this particular seller shows 5 sold since June 2012, averaging around $6 each. I found 15 of these recently - more than the total quantity available for sale at Bricklink and eBay combined. Unless I try to sell them they won't affect the market value of the ones that are for sale.
Often times, too, I will list much higher then the going value just to gauge interest. If it sells, great, if not, I was just gathering info and will relist based on that info. Some time I'll just shelve the item until I think the market catches up to want I want it to be at....sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.
As far as the big ticket items go, I have done much better selling them at toy shows, then on ebay. I have found that once a potential buyer can touch it, the value goes up
Will this set continue to rise? Probably. Will it be a good investment? Depends on your patience and desire for a return. Very doubtful that you would ever loose money (and I'm quite sure your rate of return will be better than your IRA!) but the "fast money" days for this set are over.
There will always be completest with deep pockets that can pay the going rate.
A) been discontinued for at least 5-7 years
B) had likely been low in stocks (at least compared to now) when they were discontinued, and were not so popular as they are now (which is another reason for low stocks).
The uneducated simply focus on the price of these sets instead of what the current market is. Think of it like the day traders of the 90's. Money to be had, but only if you know what you are doing, or you are likely going to lose money.
For example, Lord knows how many resellers have been breaking even/losing money because they forget (or did not research) the fees associated with selling on sites like eBay and Amazon.
I also consider it to be really reckless of these media reports and books preaching that you can make thousands off of LEGO when, like every get rick quick scheme, it is not that easy.
(And if you find a tattered VW Beetle and/or a Green Grocer, I'll happily pay original retail plus shipping!)
Sell sell sell!
As far as haunted house goes ive had my eye on that set it selling very well and if you want on pick it up as quick as possible because it will be $1000 new in 2 years same goes for town hall.
Not all sets become valuable its tendency that the less popular sets become valuable like grand carousel, imperial flagship and town hall sets nobody could care less or bought when they were available and turned around after their retirement said "Hey, they are pretty cool looking sets now that i think about it" Ill tell you this if you dont own a town hall dont bother with it isn't worth $400
grand carousel is 3.5k pieces with power function that alone is easily worth $400 I would take my carousel over my death star I any day.
Town hall wasnt worth the $200 I spent on it its empty and doesnt stand up to its other modular counterparts. though my line can be taken out of context. For those poeple who are interested in town hall they should get it now as it well keep climbing and the haunted house as well both sets are doing well as i said in my other post probably going to 1k eventually.
Personally though I am so relieved to have moved most of those sets. A higher premium also introduces a higher risk of fraud. What is there to protect a seller if some unscrupulous buyer decides to open say a sealed Cafe Corner, remove the most desired parts and then professionally reseal it and return it?