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There's also a higher likelihood of there being another iteration of the X-Wing in the future. (Lego missed the boat by not including two or so exclusive minifigures to help drive sales on that set.)
Once the Orthanc and Hobbit sets are gone, I wouldn't expect them to ever return.
they already released a 2nd UCS X-wing, they may not want to make a 3rd one before some time.
just a matter of taste, I picked orthanc recently, but I'm not attracted by the x-wing. price point seems worse too. x-wing is 1600 bricks, 2.3 kg, orthanc is 2300 bricks, 3 kg.
Ultimatly it comes down to how you want to spend your money, are you a die hard SW fan or a LoTR's fan? Which do you think will put the biggest smile on your face, for me it is the Red 5, but that's just me.
The one thing about the UCS X-wing long term is the fact that there is precedence established for it. And if you recall before the 'Red Five' rehash came around, the original UCS X-wing only hit a high around $500 with used one's in the $350 range. So it didn't exactly hit a high note considering it was EOL for nearly a decade. Especially in comparison to other models like the Y-wing and even Naboo Fighter.
It makes me wonder why they would not keep the X-Wing in stock until the movie comes out due to it being one of the signature ships in the star wars trilogy.
I think the Red 5 hasn't sold too well so is running end of life (others might know better). But also with a newer UCS out (Sandcrawler and Slave 1) and coming out (Hoth Base) Lego will want to rotate their stock anyway.
Then add in the fact the new X-Wings (as seen in the trailor) are blue and look quite distinctive i can't see Disney wanting too much older stuff knocking about that will detract from cross-sell merchandising and promotion related to the new films, i also susspect we will be seeing a new system scale x-wing very soon so again, out with the old, in with the new.