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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,077
    There is no interest in the LOTR stuff at all right now. I have some figs on ebay on "buy it now" and am the cheapest I have seen on there for what i'm selling and I haven't had anyone make an offer. Maybe the fact there is no tie in with a current film is the problem, or maybe LOTR fans generally aren't Lego fans or aren't aware of teh Lego sets out there.
  • JT32JT32 BasingstokeMember Posts: 124
    I know 10215 isn't desirable but it's now reduced to £46.50 at [email protected] and likely to go EOL with the B-Wing coming soon. Surely it's worth a punt and could double it's money in 6-12 months time?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    LOTR at clearance is good. At retail bad. Maybe the lack of demand has something to do with how poor the design is with these sets. LOTR is such an epic scale fantasy storyline - what Lego produced doesn't quite capture it's intensity and massiveness.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    LOTR at clearance is good. At retail bad. Maybe the lack of demand has something to do with how poor the design is with these sets. LOTR is such an epic scale fantasy storyline - what Lego produced doesn't quite capture it's intensity and massiveness.
    Have you purchased any of these sets? I wouldn't say that they are poor. Attack on Weathertop is a very well designed set (though over priced). The new horses are great. To properly capture the scale of something like Helm's Deep would require 3K+ bricks which would make it un-affordable to 95% of the Lego buying public.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^I know. I guess my vision of what a Lego LOTR should be is not what they produced. I have to remind myself, these are targeted for kids.

    And I should clarify my comments are intended for the larger sets, like Helm's Deep (and I know you can add walls and such). And anyone can be creative, use their parts and build it up. So I'll back off the negativity some here.

    Back on subject - is there aftermarket value here? Sure. Whatever POTC does, LOTR will follow.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    edited July 2012
    I didn't like the LoTR sets at first but I have warmed up to them. I also thought that the scale wasn't big enough when I saw Helm's Deep or Mines of Moria but it makes sense. From a business perspective I wouldn't want to invest in a "UCS" level set for a brand new theme. I would want to release a mixture of small, medium and large sized sets and see how they perform in the market before investing in R&D to create huge scaled castles and movie scenes. The cool thing is that they have made the Helm's deep castle expandable which I thought was a pretty nice touch.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I could see the smaller sets having a short 1-year shelf life, with Moria and Helms around for maybe 2 more years.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,258
    Christmas will be an interesting time to watch LotR: if they sell out and slightly spike I think that could be a good indicator. Or they could sit there and get slashed Dec 26.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 7,057
    Especially with the wave of Hobbit sets hitting stores along with the film in theaters at Christmas, I imagine the new stuff tied to a current movie will outperform the current LotR stuff by far. You could also argue that a rising tide floats all boats and the Hobbit film will help the LotR stuff surge too
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Any suggestions? I am just a collector at this stage but have thought about buying an extra of each Lord of the Rings sets and holding onto them for a while (a year? More?) to resell at a later date for profit. If they would be anything like Harry Potter I could make some money off this but knowing my luck I'd just end up selling for the same as I paid -_- I am kicking myself for selling the Shrieking Shack, Escape from the Merpeople and Dumbledore's Office a few years back. Damn was I stupid!

    We all have "missed the boat" and not bought a certain set at one time or another.

    I probably should have waited to sell my Market Street. I could have gotten more. You have to remember that the longer you hold onto a set doesn't guarantee that it will make a great profit for you. Sure, it will probably go up in price, but if it is not keeping up with inflation then you are actually losing money.

    As far as LOTR, I don't see how you can go wrong by purchasing the sets, but i would get them when they are on sale or clearance. Helms Deep should be a good after market seller.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    With UCS B-Wing now unveiled, anyone think given its size, it will replace UCS IS?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Unveiled?
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    With UCS B-Wing now unveiled, anyone think given its size, it will replace UCS IS?
    I would think that's the idea, yes.

  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    Weird. King's Castle is available from Amazon as a gold box deal for $95.
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,395
    edited July 2012
    Unveiled?
    A video of the UCS B-Wing was released today @Pitfall69.
    With UCS B-Wing now unveiled, anyone think given its size, it will replace UCS IS?
    I would think that's the idea, yes.

    Yes, IS is probably on it's way out the door.
    Weird. King's Castle is available from Amazon as a gold box deal for $95.
    I immediately went on Amazon after seeing this comment... last one was just sold out.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Where as the video?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,228
    Any suggestions? I am just a collector at this stage but have thought about buying an extra of each Lord of the Rings sets and holding onto them for a while (a year? More?) to resell at a later date for profit. If they would be anything like Harry Potter I could make some money off this but knowing my luck I'd just end up selling for the same as I paid -_- I am kicking myself for selling the Shrieking Shack, Escape from the Merpeople and Dumbledore's Office a few years back. Damn was I stupid!
    Don't kick yourself.. I had many copies of Shrieking shack and other HP sets that I sold and still made a decent amount off of them, but who knew that the Potter line would resurface and that they would not make a set like Shrieking shack.. you cannot hold sets forever hoping they will climb like that. I also had GraveYard duels which go for insane money now, but they will only slightly going up back when I sold them.. again it is a roll of the dice.. but what do you do? Hold onto them forever?

    As for LoTR Im guessing there are those that already have 10's of copies of these sets hidden away with hopes of becoming millionaires but I think the issue is that especially now many more people are hording sets to try to sell later so it goes back to the ever present debate of supply and demand. My guess is that while most LEGO sets are going up after discontinue the ones that will go up most are either a neat set that gets discontinued before it is expected or a very expensive set.. The LoTR will probably go up but it will take a few years probably.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,228


    Have you purchased any of these sets? I wouldn't say that they are poor. Attack on Weathertop is a very well designed set (though over priced). .
    That is the problem with LoTR IMO. The prices are outrageous.
    As for Helm deeps that used the same 'modular' Technic Pin and brick that they used to use in the 80's so with the puchase of a few sets you can probably make a decent size helmsdeep..
    Although if they were going to make a bucket of figs, how about Orcs and 'Elves' and 'human soldiers'
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    Where as the video?
    in the LEGO UCS B-Wing thread under collecting...
    looks nice, now to find out the price

  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,395
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^ Thanks

    I don't know if you can really say the B-Wing is a replacement for IS. As stated in the video, the B-Wing is not minifig scale and therefore he was free to build at any scale he wanted.

    I have always been a big fan of the UCS models, but they don't have the same play value as those sets that come with minifigures. The B-Wing didn't play a major role in the movies. Although, not as iconic as MF, X-Wing or even the tie fighters, The Imperial Shuttle has had it's moments. I do not think the B-Wing will perform as well as IS, but I do think it will perform better than Obi-wans Jedi Starfighter.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    I immediately went on Amazon after seeing this comment... last one was just sold out.
    There was only one left (perhaps found in some dusty corner).... and I bought it. I'll see if it actually ships. Weird because I was checking the gold box deals and I often see the Joust set listed, but there was the King's Castle instead.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    edited July 2012

    I have always been a big fan of the UCS models, but they don't have the same play value as those sets that come with minifigures. The B-Wing didn't play a major role in the movies. Although, not as iconic as MF, X-Wing or even the tie fighters, The Imperial Shuttle has had it's moments. I do not think the B-Wing will perform as well as IS, but I do think it will perform better than Obi-wans Jedi Starfighter.
    Well, that's the point -- the UCS models aren't supposed to have any play value at all. They are meant to be built and displayed. So...

    B-wing will sell exceedingly well. We've been waiting for this for 12 years. No one was ever waiting for or wanting the UCS Jedi Starfighter, and if anyone says they were, they're lying. ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    That's my point. I believe the more play value, the more valuable a set can be. Yes WE, adults have been waiting for the B-Wing, but children want the play with a set, not build it one time and display it. I also think minifigures add to the value of a set especially ones that come exclusively with a particular set. Minifigures add play value and collector value.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Given that IS was on sale for May 4th my guess is it will be discontinued once the B-Wing hits the shelves.

    LOTR will sell dismally now but should do quite well once it is EOL. I am thinking Indiana Jones all over again. A good clearance buy. Probably one more wave and it is done for sure.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I hope not, I really like the LoTR theme :(
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    Does anyone actually have sales numbers for the LotR sets? Unless you have inside information then how do you really know?
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    That's my point. I believe the more play value, the more valuable a set can be. Yes WE, adults have been waiting for the B-Wing, but children want the play with a set, not build it one time and display it. I also think minifigures add to the value of a set especially ones that come exclusively with a particular set. Minifigures add play value and collector value.
    Possibly, but remember the most valuable set of all has just about zero play value. :)

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    The MF has zeo play value?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    *zero
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    It's too big to really play with.. Building one right now. One more sealed box off the market
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,270
    ^^ think he's probably referring to 3450 Statue of Liberty
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I think that MF used sells at higher prices than Statue of Liberty.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    My daughter players with the Hasbro MF all the time. Its too big for her to pick up and fly around (she's only 2) but she puts all the figures in and has battles. My nephew is 6 and he never flies it around...or the AT-AT.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    It's too big to really play with.. Building one right now. One more sealed box off the market
    Did you just buy one or did you take the plunge and break the seal on one you already had?

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    According to the current rate the UCS is gaining value, it will surpass the Statue of Liberty (sealed). I'm glad the MF wasn't designed and built by the French...lol
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^ :) LIKES
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    A joke of course...
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    It's too big to really play with.. Building one right now. One more sealed box off the market
    Did you just buy one or did you take the plunge and break the seal on one you already had?

    I just bought one from a fellow bricksetter at a very good price. I swore I'd never spend that much on a toy, but it was too good to pass up.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Fantastic!!! Let us know how the build was.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Does anyone actually have sales numbers for the LotR sets? Unless you have inside information then how do you really know?
    Just go into an Lego store and ask how LotR are doing compared to other themes :)

    The battle pack actually is selling the best, which makes sense to me as I see the minifigs as the real draw to these sets.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Minifigures? Really? Nooooo. I can't believe it.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Well, for me it is the exception as I'm not a big minifig guy. The thought of making an army of Uruk-hai sounds pretty cool, however :P
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    The Urak-Hai set is great.. 6 minifigs and a horse for 25 bucks, and it connects to Helm's Deep.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 7,057
    Is there anyone worth including as a minifig for a B-Wing other than a generic pilot? Unless I am forgetting something from the films, including anyone worth caring about with this set would be stretch
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I certainly don't care about his set.
  • lulwutlulwut Member Posts: 417
    edited July 2012
    So did anyone pick up that king castle from amazon?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^Yes someone said they bought the last copy.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    Given that IS was on sale for May 4th my guess is it will be discontinued once the B-Wing hits the shelves.

    LOTR will sell dismally now but should do quite well once it is EOL. I am thinking Indiana Jones all over again. A good clearance buy. Probably one more wave and it is done for sure.
    Excuse me? We'll have two Hobbit movies one year apart. The LOTR line really has to flop hard to be discontinued before the 2nd part even comes out.
  • SecretjediSecretjedi Member Posts: 175
    Imperial Shuttle no longer listed on amazon.es. May mean nothing of course, but when something is usually OOS, dont they just say OOS??
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