Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

LegoFanTexas

You're right, I meant the Frigate, just mistyped the number. :)

turtle1173

I personally like the Frigate and think it's a big step up from the republic cruiser. I think it will do decently well in the aftermarket, probably similar to 8039. At this point, I wouldn't want to pay MSRP for it to keep till later. I picked up a couple before Christmas for $90, then I've picked up a couple more for half price at Walmart ($59).

I don't know when it will EOL. Some Walmart stores cleared them out, others have them like they are the newest thing. There again, fairly similar to 8039. Several of those sat on the shelves for months at $79. Like most of these sets, we just have to wait and see.

doriansdad

Personally I won't take a risk on Clone Wars stuff unless it is truly spectacular....the Frigate is not. The problem is the minifigs are hideous, the ship is plain boring, and most AFOLS are not into CW. You should see a small return if you buy it at a deep discount but I would much prefer the Falcon or the Podracers on sale if you are looking for returns.

gmpirate

I think I have about six Frigates from various sales this year but I would probably just as well have my money back. It another 7665 to me :P

The Extreme Cruiser I think will appreciate, as other Technics do, but they are not high volume movers. I bought one on vacation just to build along side with my kids, but never opened it. I put this in the "unless its a steal" list I'm not stockpiling them.

y2josh

Personally I won't take a risk on Clone Wars stuff unless it is truly spectacular....the Frigate is not. The problem is the minifigs are hideous, the ship is plain boring, and most AFOLS are not into CW. You should see a small return if you buy it at a deep discount but I would much prefer the Falcon or the Podracers on sale if you are looking for returns.

I'm not sure how I feel about setting back Falcons just yet. It's a no-brainer, for sure, but is it really on its way out, or are the B&M stores just making room for newer stuff, with online outlets keeping it in stock for awhile? The Falcon just seems like one of those ships along the lines of the X-Wing that should ALWAYS be available in some form or another (though this has certainly not been the precedent... and I'd probably say the same of the TIE, which had a very long absence). I don't know. I just feel that this one should be here through Christmas at the very least.

Bumblepants

yeah I think I will probably just leave the Frigate alone unless it falls to 50% off or more.

LegoFanTexas

8088 is completely gone from S&H, searching for it results in an error.

Still, I don't think this one is going to do all that great.

Thoughts?

Pitfall69

Minecraft now selling for $150 on amazon. I shall enjoy my small 300% profit of $100 a set over the course of 2 days... :P ;)

Nice... :)

That is of course, the exception to the rule...

Ah yes. Yes, there is always an exception of the rule. Misinformation and timing work very well. That is what drove prices here. Thanks God not every Lego buyer is in this forum:)
Congrats. Very nice.

I each PawnStars alot and it's funny how misinformation can help you or screw you. There was this guy that bought an item from a garage sale for$10 then sold it for $100's more. The same guy brought another item in and thought he struck it rich again. He over paid for an item and lost 100's. So basically he broke even. It happens.

Bandit

8088 is completely gone from S&H, searching for it results in an error.

Still, I don't think this one is going to do all that great.

Thoughts?

No, I don't think it's going to do that great. I probably would have bought a few if I had ever found them for 50% off, but I haven't bothered to pick any up at or just below msrp, and still won't.

doriansdad

Personally I won't take a risk on Clone Wars stuff unless it is truly spectacular....the Frigate is not. The problem is the minifigs are hideous, the ship is plain boring, and most AFOLS are not into CW. You should see a small return if you buy it at a deep discount but I would much prefer the Falcon or the Podracers on sale if you are looking for returns.

I'm not sure how I feel about setting back Falcons just yet. It's a no-brainer, for sure, but is it really on its way out, or are the B&M stores just making room for newer stuff, with online outlets keeping it in stock for awhile? The Falcon just seems like one of those ships along the lines of the X-Wing that should ALWAYS be available in some form or another (though this has certainly not been the precedent... and I'd probably say the same of the TIE, which had a very long absence). I don't know. I just feel that this one should be here through Christmas at the very least.

Yep way too early for Falcon and Podracers, but I was talking about sets released the same time as the Frigate. This Falcon was a definite improvement over the prior iterations and I can't see them doing another one for at least 5-6 years, if at all, so I think it has good potential....it is just so iconic everyone will want at least one in their collection.

samiam391

I know that this has already been discussed a little bit, and I already have my own estimations, but I'd love to hear your all's thoughts on what price the Imperial Flagship New In Box will be fetching by Christmas time?

Renny

I think it will sell within the $350 - $400 price mark. It's already had a big spike in value from it's original price tag, but my guess is that it is still too soon for another big price hike. I hope I am wrong though since I do have one in my collection, tempting as it is to open and build :)

mathew

^ Ebay prices have been holding steady around $275-300 for the past couple of months. I would guess by Christmas $375-400 NIB and $225-275 used. More if it has extra canons and other accessories. The discontinued PoTC ships should push up the value some.

Farmer_John

I agree with @mathew's assessment (including the comment regarding accessories). My hunch is that after the projected price increase before Christmas the prices will tend to stick a little higher and won't drop back down to where they are today. I've built a lot of sets, but the IF is one of my very favorite builds.

BoiseState

8088 has a poor minifig selection and the ship isn't built well either. If I put one on auction I'd be shocked if it went for more than $20.

FatMatt

^Your assessment of the set may be correct, but for auction you would get $25-$30 used, and at least $35-$40 sealed according to the going rates.

cloaked7

Diagon Alley $140 at Amazon U.S. right now. Sold and shipped by Amazon. Probably won't last long. I just got my first set. Which isn't saying much. I'm sure some people have 10-20+. :-)

LegoFanTexas

Diagon Alley $140 at Amazon U.S. right now. Sold and shipped by Amazon. Probably won't last long. I just got my first set. Which isn't saying much. I'm sure some people have 10-20+. :-)

I've got 6 set back... Doesn't feel like the right time to start stocking up on this one, it might well be here for awhile.

effalcon

hate you amazon US... be nice and ship to me!

prevere

That's a nice discount on DA right now. Rarely is that available for a reduced price.
And actually according to Brickset's Amazon graph, this tied for THE lowest recently.

For a long time, I've thought DA to be the pinnacle of active sets with aftermarket potential. But HP is heading in hibernation here, and I'm just not sure it has the force it once had.

I still think it's a great, great aftermarket set. But maybe not THE best. IMHO, VW Camper is the #1.

LegoFanTexas

If DA retires this summer, it will be a great set for this Christmas and next, but if it lasts through this Christmas and into next year, it may not be worth as much next Christmas due to oversupply and lower demand.

Just my 2 cents worth. :)

FB is running the same risk, but less so, since it isn't tied to IP like HP is.

prevere

Hogwarts Express and Burrow sales this Xmas may tell the future for DA. If HE goes to $200 and Burrow to $125+ those would be positive signs.

pumperx

^Burrow has been selling for around $100 or over, so $125 by Xmas is very likely IMO.

Bandit

That's a nice discount on DA right now. Rarely is that available for a reduced price.
And actually according to Brickset's Amazon graph, this tied for THE lowest recently.

For a long time, I've thought DA to be the pinnacle of active sets with aftermarket potential. But HP is heading in hibernation here, and I'm just not sure it has the force it once had.

I still think it's a great, great aftermarket set. But maybe not THE best. IMHO, VW Camper is the #1.

$140 is certainly better than $150, but nothing compared to $112 via TRU BOGO. :)

gmpirate

The deal on DA was late 2011 thru early 2012. 10% off at Lego store, plus the mini HE which sold for $15, plus VIP 5%, plus the pick-a-brick box or Christmas set or whatever was the free-with-purchase was for the month.

Renny

Just received some ebay bucks today and was thinking of purchasing 2 Queen Anne's Revenge ships. I would be able to get 2 of them msib for an average of $75 each. Do you think this is a good move or do you think these will be cut in price lower before they dissapear?

LegoFanTexas

QAR is marked down to $79 at my local Wally World.

prevere

^If retail stores aren't getting re-stocked with QAR or BPs, then I would. But S@H is discounting the smaller POTC sets now. Maybe they'll post deals on the ships too? Hard to say.

LegoFanTexas

Why would S@H discount the ships? If they are selling, why give away money?

prevere

They are discounting the rest of the series. And retailers have put the ships in the clearance isles.

samiam391

^^How can you be sure they are selling that well at S@H?
Obviously they are doing quite poorly, except when on sale, in other large retailers.

LegoFanTexas

They are discounting the rest of the series. And retailers have put the ships in the clearance isles.

Very true... Then the question becomes, will BP and QAR perform like IF did?

samiam391

They are discounting the rest of the series. And retailers have put the ships in the clearance isles.

Very true... Then the question becomes, will BP and QAR perform like IF did?

Personally, I don't think as well. BP and QAR are tied to a theme, while IF is a standalone ship. I think BP and QAR will do well in the aftermarket, but not as well as IF. IF was also an extremely short run, and although it did go on a slight sale, no one was expecting it to get discontinued and stocking up on it (to insane amounts), like people are with the BP and QAR.

doriansdad

BP and QAR are nice ships, but not in the same class as IF. Ships will always be in demand this so this pair would be a good buy on deep discount....obviously there are more popular sets heading for EOL at the end of this year so be aware of the opportunity cost.

prevere

Definitely agree - great points gang.

I give QAR and BP a chance to perform strongly, especially if there are no other pirate ships active at S@H. Destiny's Bounty doesn't quite count IMHO. IF will forever be in the aftermarket hall of fame - it's in its own class.

Pirate ships are pirates ships. Always popular, whether themed or not. Whenever I rebuild a vintage Black Sea Barracuda, Caribbean Clipper, or Armada Flagship - those sell really fast.

Brickarmor

TRU is going to be the stick in the mud for PotC EOL. They'll never put them on sale and they'll never sell out...

LegoFanTexas

^ Well, never is a strong word, but yes, they will have them for a long time. Just like B&N had Mill Village Raid for a long time (only sold out last week or so).

BoiseState

^Your assessment of the set may be correct, but for auction you would get $25-$30 used, and at least $35-$40 sealed according to the going rates.

Friendly wager? I just put one on EBay for the heck of it.. I'll be surprised if it goes for more than $20-$25 bucks.

http://item.mobileweb.ebay.com/viewitem?itemId=330758617671&index=5&nav=SELLING&nid=36421339123

samiam391

^If @FatMatt doesn't take that friendly wager, i sure will ;-)
http://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-Star-Wars-7259-ARC-170-Starfighter-8088-100-Complete-w-mini-figures-/271008282433?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3f195a3741

BoiseState

Sounds good. If I win, you send me an interesting minifig(doesn't have to be expensive) and I'll do the same if I lose. Deal?

BoiseState

Geez.. Somebody paid $40 for a used one?

samiam391

@BoiseState- Sure, I'm game. So if it goes for more than $25, I win right? Anything less than $25 it's your victory?
What's an interesting minifig? Pretty much all of mine are SW ;)

prevere

I'll take the over.

BoiseState

Ya.. Over $25 and you win. I don't really care about the minifig, jus thought it would make it more interesting. I'll do SW too, just something you/I find interesting. Maybe something uncommon but cheap, if that even exists.

samiam391

@BoiseState- Alright it's a deal. Cloud City Boba Fett to the winner? ;)

samiam391

@BoiseState- And just a tip, you might want to put "Star Wars" and "Sealed Mint in Box" in the title.

BoiseState

Haha, deal.

BoiseState

Or maybe one of my bronze Boba's..

samiam391

Or maybe one of my bronze Boba's..

Are you trying to low-ball me? Fine, if we are offering up trash, I'll throw my Solid gold C-3PO in the ring.

cbaker1974

I'd expect QAR and BP to perform similar to (or slightly outperform) 6243 Brickbeard's Bounty from a few years ago...potentially outperform due to more complex builds and better adult theming. While BP is the more 'iconic' ship from the movies, I think QAR will be a better bet from a % gain perspective as it is larger and looks better on display.