Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Pitfall69

Minecraft

prevere

I will sell MC sets every week for 50-100% return after only keeping them a few weeks.

sorry, getting late... MC?
thanks

Minecraft I believe.

LegoFanTexas

MineCraft

FatMatt

Minecraft!

Pitfall69

Altogether Now!!!

fyrmedhatt

The shuttle can go any second, as it has really been out for about two years, only in two different sets. That being said it is a great seller for Lego, so I would not be surprised if it stayed on past the two year mark like the MMV and Fire Brigade have done.

As for the Maersk Train, I'll give it at least another six or so months, it might be sold out during the holiday sales, but I'd say it's unlikely that it would sell out before then. Remember that the set is not a once in a blue moon Maersk release like the 10152/10155 ship that got into the general market by coincidence, but rather a planned design like the Emerald Night, so it should behave like most other recent 10000 series sets (two years give or take).

As for after market appeal, the shuttle is a safe bet, Lego space shuttles are always coveted, and this one is most likely the ultimate rendition of said vehicle. It has massive adult and kid appeal and it's a pretty good value, so even if lots of resellers have multiple copies it should command a premium already from when it's sold out.

The Maersk Train is also a great bet for the aftermarket as it is full of rare Maersk blue bricks, not to mention train builders are likely to pick up lots of reasonably priced sets immediately following the discontinuation of the sets in order to make their trains longer, tightening the supply early on. Just look at previous detailed trains such as the BNSF and Super Chief to understand the massive potential for value this set has, not to mention the prices for every previous Maersk set.

LegoFanTexas

You know, you'd think that the retirement value of a set like Maersk Train would be so obvious, everyone and their brother would have 10 of them.

However, the same is/was true of the container ship, clearly to me that is an obvious winner, but what the heck do I know. :)

It isn't time yet, and I don't think Maersk Train is going out this Christmas, but I plan to have a few...

tvih

Hard to say about discontinuation, but the Imperial Shuttle would now be available in Europe for under 200€ new at a discount... yet another nice deal I can't take advantage of because it seems I have to shell out for the more important MMV after which I'm totally broke.

dsdg88

@dougts:
Thanks for the tip on 10212 reappearing at the Lego store.
I was able to exchange the one I got from S@H May 4th which had a damaged box.
BTW I was told about three weeks ago that they were not going to get anymore; it pays to take what you hear from the staff at the stores with a grain of salt.

LegoFanTexas

^ Agreed, the staff at the stores don't really know all that much, most of them know less than we do, they are only paid $8-10/hr after all, it is just a job to many of them (not all, but many)

I think the store managers know more, but they don't know everything else, they probably pickup bits of info here and there, but of course everything they hear is subject to change as well.

I do think that if the B-Wing comes out this year, IS will be going...

Which is amazing, since it has been here, for what, 2 years? When is DS going? :)

Bandit

Small profit - not really worth it.

Small indeed... I try not to play that game, there are several large sellers who do, making pennies for all their capital and effort.

Generally when I pick items to buy, doubling my money is the goal. Not always possible, and sometimes for fast moving stuff I'll accept less, but it is the aiming point.

Minecraft now selling for $150 on amazon. I shall enjoy my small 300% profit of $100 a set over the course of 2 days... :P ;)

sidersdd

^ Nice. Looks like @Renny sold all five of his on Bricklink for a quick $70 each.

madforLEGO

...sucker born every minute I guess

Renny

Thanks @Sidersdd. They went really quick. I see they are already going for around $100 on Ebay but with me only paying $70 for 5 (with vip point redemption) I was more than happy to move them at $70 a piece.

sidersdd

@Renny, hey, I don't blame you. Quick flip. I wouldn't have thought they'd go for that much. I was waiting to see how your sales went before listing mine.

cloaked7

@Bandit A MC set just sold on eBay for $91, $110, $120. It is now over $100 so could easily go for more, because $100 is a ceiling for a lot of people, but once it is past it is easier to shoot up to the next ceiling (whatever that is). Getting to $100+ so quickly makes me wonder if $150 is out of the question. That is, during the time when people can't find the set anywhere, and a lot of them think there aren't going to be any more of the set. I like you, am glad I picked up my 5. :-)

Renny

@sidersdd, I think you can safely sell them for much more than I did. Seems like the price tag is going up very quickly. It's an interesting situation and am curious to see how high the ceiling is before the news of the new stock arrives and the prices go back down.

madforLEGO

Well LEGO is going to make more of these.. so people that are selling the farm to horde these or plan on holding on to them should think against it..
It is only a matter of time before LEGO has them back in stock

sidersdd

Is Jinx still selling them, or are they pre-ordering for the next batch?

prevere

When I saw the post on Brickset about the pre-emptive EOL on Minecraft, I quickly bought 2 at Bricklink at $45 each. (I had posted the link above as he had more listed).

Then I saw the post that S@H would be getting them back in. So I canceled the order, only to find out the seller had already ran out of stock (or maybe he flopped them on eBay).

And now on BL, only 3 sellers (all in EU / Overseas) have them. Sheesh.

MorkMan

Do we have a date for when MC is coming back?

LegoFanTexas

Minecraft now selling for $150 on amazon. I shall enjoy my small 300% profit of $100 a set over the course of 2 days... :P ;)

Nice... :)

That is of course, the exception to the rule...

prevere

Do we have a date for when MC is coming back?

Nothing on S@H. "Temporarily Out of Stock"...

@Bandit - Very nice, indeed!

prevere

I noticed images of the "second wave" of Friends set on the Brickset server - mainly for my 7-year-old daughter. Brickset mentioned these in the Toy Fair roundup, but without images. Most noteably this set, Summer Riding Camp (1,100 pcs), looks pretty good.

I am wondering if we'll see the 1st wave retired this fall? I'm very wishy-washy on investing in this series. However, I do like Olivia's House for it's modular nature.

Summer Riding Camp
http://brickset.com/detail/?set=3185-1

graphite

Is Jinx still selling them, or are they pre-ordering for the next batch?

Their website has never had anything but the pre order option. So it is still there from the original batch. I'm not sure if placing another pre order will get you one when the new batch comes out but I would suggest ordering from S@H or somewhere else once they are available. It took 2 weeks after they were available for Jinx to get theirs shipped out. I pre ordered mine like the first day the preorder was available. Got to see the set in person 2 weeks after it came out at Brickworld days before mine finally shipped.

prevere

MMV was missing from my Lego Store here in Cleveland. Out of stock until August. Maybe gone by BF?

samiam391

Congrats @Renny. Glad you were able to make such a quick profit.
I, like many others, quickly made many offers on all the MC sets on eBay trying to snag 1-2 before they were "completely discontinued". Then once I learned they were coming back for at least one more round, I backed off. Once the market subsides for the sets, and gets a little more flooded, I'll definitely go for 1-2 sets because of the obvious high demand for this set.

prevere

^ I think MC is now on the radar for a lot of people.

LegoFanTexas

^ I think MC is now on the radar for a lot of people.

Pure genius...

They made 10,000 of them, sold them out fast... When they come back after making 100,000 of them, they'll sell them all to resellers, then make another 100,000, sell those to fans...

Profit!!! :)

Pacific493

The Imperial Shuttle #10212 is now listed as "call to check product availability" on S@H. It would be a bit surprising if it reaches EOL in the middle of the summer.

dougts

When I saw the post on Brickset about the pre-emptive EOL on Minecraft, I quickly bought 2 at Bricklink at $45 each. (I had posted the link above as he had more listed).

Then I saw the post that S@H would be getting them back in. So I canceled the order, only to find out the seller had already ran out of stock (or maybe he flopped them on eBay).

I did this exact same thing. wish I would have stuck with the order. oh well.

timinchicago

Imperial Shuttle now listed as "Sold out" at [email protected].

timinchicago

#10212 now "Available" again.

Farmer_John

I think the IS will do well in the aftermarket. It's a nice set...

Legofanscott

I can personally see Lego products out now and in the future lasting alot longer than they wouldve a few years ago simply for the fact that more people are buying them in hope of a small return in profit, the downside to this is Lego sales for that particular item increase so Lego will just do the same thing as with 10188. Unfortunately we can't have it both ways.

Wouldnt suprise me if 10212 is still here this time next year

doriansdad

I am guessing 10212 will follow the same pattern as 10198....discounted for May 4th and then gone at the end of the year....something has to go to make room for the B-Wing.

Legofanscott

I am guessing 10212 will follow the same pattern as 10198....discounted for May 4th and then gone at the end of the year....something has to go to make room for the B-Wing.

Could be the deathstar?

That thing seriously needs to go xD

doriansdad

No the Deathstar IMO will be around for a few more years yet. The designers went all out on the latest OT sets...doesn't make sense to get rid of the very popular flagship....it may even outlast the SSD lol.

gmpirate

When I was inquiring about next shipments for the IS at Downtown Disney, I was told they get eight Death Stars a week.

prevere

You definitely can't be in a rush to make money with the UCS sets. Parting them out on BL is another option. IS parted out is $437 on BL.

tvih

Could be the deathstar?

That thing seriously needs to go xD

No, it seriously needs to stay at least until Christmas (unless someone wants to hand me 350 euros to get one right now!) ;)

NickJohnsonCA

Thanks Eric...I figured there had to be a posting out there on this, but couldn't find it. The posts at this link do seem to be somewhat dated, but the conversation is certainly interesting.

Lego typically EOLs (end-of-lifes) products in conjunction with their Black Friday sales. It is by far the best time to pick up the expensive sets. I do find it hard to believe that Lego would tell anyone on the phone what their obsolescence plan is. That would be a poor business practice in my mind...

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Bumblepants

What are everyone's thoughts on the Repubic Frigate #7964? Not the prettiest or most well known ship in the galaxy but not bad either. Will it rise in value or just be one of those Clone Wars sets that languishes around RRP?

samiam391

@Bumblepants- In my opinion, one of those clone Wars sets that languishes around RRP. There have just been to many sets with a similar design to it made already. Namely the Republic Cruiser (basically just a different color and not as sleek).. also I would almost consider the Tantive iv an identical ship. It should also be noted that none of these sets have done particularly well on the aftermarket, again, namely Republic Cruiser. Right now, we are still waiting on the Tantive iv. The fact also that it's not as iconic or well known, just doesn't make it very attractive to me as a good investment set. Just my thoughts on it.

pvancil27

As a collector, I loved the #7964

lulwut

I also liked the Republic Frigate. I would be searching for it just like the Venator had I missed out.

I haven't seen any $120 SW set done poorly in the secondary market, 150% of RRP after EOL is pretty good imo, especially considering the fact that you can get these 30% off on clearance.

Is the Republic Frigate and Millenium Falcon going EOL soon? They are being clearance at Targets right now.

LegoFanTexas

7694 should do well, I picked up a pair of them on a deal recently, paid about $80 each delivered, will slowly add to that over time, this is one I'd be comfortable owning 50 copies of.

LegoFanTexas

Has anyone noticed that 8081 is listed as sold out on S@H?

I found a few copies in my local Lego store last night, picked one more up so I had two of them, just in case we want to build the 2nd model, but otherwise I don't see this one doing super in the aftermarket.

Any thoughts?

y2josh

7694 should do well, I picked up a pair of them on a deal recently, paid about $80 each delivered, will slowly add to that over time, this is one I'd be comfortable owning 50 copies of.

I'm assuming you meant some other set here... as 7694 barely fetches $40 right now (which is still 300% over RRP). If we're talking the Frigate... it's one of those really hideous models that I think no one is watching and may surprise a lot of people much in the same way the Republic Dropship and AT-OT did. Or it will flounder well below RRP forever like UCS Obi-Wan's Jedi Starfighter. It's not a great model, so I could see it going either way.

As to 8081... it's not a particularly stellar model, but I'm not a huge Technic fan. Ignoring that, I still wouldn't look for it to appreciate very quickly, though I'm sure it will rise in the long run.