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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    ^^ I have seen Dec 2013 thrown around as the EOL date for 10219. Seems completely plausible to me given it came out around April 2011.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    10231 maybe, 10219 just came out.. judging by the previous Maersk sets it will be about 2 years.. no no guarantee that it will be gone for good right away, if the cargo ship was any indication.
    It's been out 14 months.

    Wow, time flies
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,813
    ^ Earlier in the thread, I said exactly the same thing. I thought it had been out a few months only too.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    What are you guys thinking of set 10219 Maersk Train and 10231 Shuttle Expedition?
    1) Are you thinking they will disappear soon? I think they will be gone end of this year.
    2) How will these sets do in the aftermarket? I think they look nice and will do nice.
    Isnt the shuttle expedition a remake of the shuttle adventure? which isnt really that much higher in price than expedition


  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited June 2012
    ^Depends on your definition of a remake. I would consider it a re-release, with some very minor alterations to address previously identified structural flaws. The sets are more or less the same. It would be extremely difficult to judge future value of the 10231 set based on the current value of the 10213 set (given 10231 is still in production).
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^^ It's really the same set. I'm not sure why they renamed it and gave it a new set number. I've never seen Lego do this -- normally they make fixes at some point and just update the set, keeping the name and set number intact.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ It was a pretty big change, the two models next to each other are differently, if you know what to look for.

    But you're right, it is very rare for this to happen...
  • crnkcrnk Member Posts: 6
    I guess it just depends on the turn out. The one is was at had around 500 people in line at opening time and from talking to the manager the last person that got a set got in line about 30 mins before opening. I have heard similar things from other openings as well, but maybe you'll get lucky.
    And the Woodlands TX opening was the opposite. They still had sets left and there was only a short register line after being open 5ish hours when I finished building and went home.
  • mcvitiemcvitie Sheffield, EnglandMember Posts: 292
    LegoFanTexas - I don't mean to blow smoke up your backside but you appear to be a dealer Im after, so if you don't mind me asking, what is your ebay id? cheers
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Best investment potentials for the new SW 2012 summer sets? Thinking the Palpatine's Arrest & Jabba's Palace are the locks...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Best investment potentials for the new SW 2012 summer sets? Thinking the Palpatine's Arrest & Jabba's Palace are the locks...
    Jabba's Palace for sure, I'm not completely sold on Palpatines Arrest.

  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM IrelandMember Posts: 964
    Dessert Skiff looks like a cert for aftermarket performer. Mid-priced OT set with fantastic exclusive minifigures.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I think the skiff itself is ugly, but the minifigs are awesome. When do these sets come out in the US?
  • YogibaraYogibara Member Posts: 7
    ^^ July/Aug in US
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Best investment potentials for the new SW 2012 summer sets? Thinking the Palpatine's Arrest & Jabba's Palace are the locks...
    Jabba's Palace for sure, I'm not completely sold on Palpatines Arrest.

    Hmmm, im always put off by re-releases of Lego sets, i know the new one looks way better but in the end its a re-release and not a unique set.

    Question is, will it be re done in the next ten years?
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 873
    Two thoughts with Jabbas palace:
    1 - likely not remade in next decade
    2 - likely to be expanded in next decade. Reviews have noted a sliding trap door and potential connections for a rancor playset. If the rancor set does not overlap with the palace, expect quite a few to want the palace to complete their set.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I have said before that i really love the idea of Lego making sets that can be joined together to make a larger set. Jabbas Palace would be great to expand on. Cloud City was a good idea, but the design was not good. If you start making sets that can be joined together to make one large play set, people would have to buy the sets. It's a win for Lego and a win for the secondary markets.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,013
    Hoyatables: If the four square peg holes are set up to incorporate a rancor set beneath, I think it would be a poor show by Lego to bring it out after the Palace has been retired, or close to it. That would be TLG actively supporting the reseller market, something I never thought they'd do.

    If we have to wait more than a year for the Rancor set or news of it, i'd doubt it will be made. I can't see TLG selling it after the Palace has gone. What size would you imagine the Rancor would be? LOTR Cave Troll size seems way too small.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I can't speak for everyone, but i didn't like Episodes 1-3 and so as a collector I don't buy many of the sets that come from those movies. Jango Fetts Slave I and The Sith Infiltrator are all I really have purchased over the years. I'm kind of a Star Wars snob and still hold the originals close to my heart.

    There has to be people that feel the same way I do and therefore that's why I think Jabbas Palace will do better in initial sales and in the secondary market.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    I've always thought the Rancor would be great brickbuilt, like the fierce creatures sets.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited June 2012
    I think it's way early to predict whether the JP set will be in hot demand when it is EOL'd. In demand, sure. Hot demand, I don't know. At first blush one would think it would shoot up in price after EOL. But, aspects that make a difference in the future demand of a set is how long it is an active set, how available it is, and how many LEGO produces. No one outside LEGO knows how many are produced, but everyone knows how long it was active. The longer it is available the more people will end up getting it.

    Cases in point are the Death Star, Fire Brigade, Luke's Landspeeder. Initially I thought Luke's Landspeeder would be great in the after market, especially since it is a WM exclusive. But, it hasn't EOL'd in over 2 1/2 years. Which is unheard of for a WM exclusive. Now I have my doubts. Same for the DS and FB.

    I do think the DS might provide a good comparison for the JP set if the JP set is available for a long time, like the DS has been.

    Just makes me wonder how long JP will be available. I know that some people won't get around to getting it even if it is available for 5 years, but the longer it is available, and how often it is on sale, etc. makes a difference in future demand.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Hoyatables: If the four square peg holes are set up to incorporate a rancor set beneath, I think it would be a poor show by Lego to bring it out after the Palace has been retired, or close to it. That would be TLG actively supporting the reseller market, something I never thought they'd do.

    If we have to wait more than a year for the Rancor set or news of it, i'd doubt it will be made. I can't see TLG selling it after the Palace has gone. What size would you imagine the Rancor would be? LOTR Cave Troll size seems way too small.
    It would probably have to be brick built if you want to maintain minifigscale, but i dont think the troll is minifig scale, just bigger. I'm looking at my Action Fleet Rancor and a Lego Rancor in minifig scale would be huge.



  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    A UCS Rancor or Mindstorm Rancor would be interesting. I just hope they don't make a pre-molded single Rancor that's Hulk, Rock Raider Monster size. That would be sad.
  • SecretjediSecretjedi Member Posts: 175



    Hmmm, im always put off by re-releases of Lego sets, i know the new one looks way better but in the end its a re-release and not a unique set.

    Question is, will it be re done in the next ten years?

    I agree. Flicking through my SW Visual Dictionary, I was surprised how many times they have released sets. X-Wing Fighters have been released five (not including mini versions) times, 3 Landspeeders, 5 M Falcons (inc. Midi), to date. That was just a quick look!

    While the newer releases usually are better, it just seems like there are so many sets to choose from, I would suspect each release would devalue older sets. USC being immune. If I really wanted an X-Wing, would I pay a higher price for an older model, of buy the newer better model and still have cash left over?

    The Star Wars universe looks like it will out live most of us and a worthy investment as long as new fans are drawn in, but I'd be real careful which sets I'd put money into.

    VW Camper is still my number one choice for sets easy to pick up now, as its cheap to buy and looks excellent.



  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,918
    edited June 2012
    @sidersdd @LegoFanTexas I'm at the mall right now and won't make it into the store until 4:30. The store sets will probably be long gone by then. :( but i'll check back with you guys later.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    A UCS Rancor or Mindstorm Rancor would be interesting. I just hope they don't make a pre-molded single Rancor that's Hulk, Rock Raider Monster size. That would be sad.
    Just so we know... a rancor the size of what some of you are asking for would likely make the Rancor Pit set MUCH larger than the new Jabba's Palace. While I'd love to see a minifig scale rancor, I will be completely surprised if it doesn't wind up being a lot closer to a wampa/cave troll-esque piece. Disappointing to be sure, but probably a bit more realistic in a "kids'" set.
  • JBricks27JBricks27 Member Posts: 678
    edited June 2012
    What's more valuable, the 10019 blockade runner or 10179 millennium falcon? And in general, how would your rank the star wars UCS in order from most to least valuable? (by valuable I mean, how much you would pay for them now) I'm sure there's a lot to consider: how many pieces, original price, how long the set has been retired, resale availability, ...
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ 10019 doesn't even sell for half what 10179 sells for...
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    ^True enough, though it also didn't even cost half of what the Falcon cost at retail. That said, it's also been discontinued for a lot longer, so it's certainly not matching the Falcon's pace.
  • JBricks27JBricks27 Member Posts: 678
    Does the price of retired sets keep ascending as time goes by? Does the price hit a peak and then start to drop? To me, it makes sense that the price will peak and fall as demand goes down.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    It all varies. I try for 2x to 3x of retail within 2 years of retirement. If it hasn't doubled by then - I'll part out or dump.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Most of the Lego sets have a bell curve, they rise for a few years, level off, then start to drop.

    I sold a few copies of 10019 before Christmas for a higher price than they are going for now. That being said, this is Summer, so they might rise again for this Christmas, but I think that set has long since reached its peak.

    I personally believe that Falcon is reaching its peak as well, it might hit $3K, but that is about it. It might not even do that very well either, I don't see it moving as much above $2K as it did back at $1,500.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    @sidersdd @LegoFanTexas I'm at the mall right now and won't make it into the store until 4:30. The store sets will probably be long gone by then. :( but i'll check back with you guys later.
    There was a big group of use there at 4am. They let 30 in at a time. We were in the first group of 30. I thought we were aiming high at 12 sets but some folks walked out with alot more. I got the manager to agree to honor gift card purchases so we all stacked up on $35 gift cards with sets. They were all gone by 11:30am. If you want the minifigs join us at 4am tomorrow!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Yikes, that is a steal! :)

    So, um... what do you want in trade for one of those? :)
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    ^ Yikes, that is a steal! :)

    So, um... what do you want in trade for one of those? :)
    Actually I am looking for a few old spiderman sets - either 4851 or 4855.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Sheesh, of all the stuff I have, that ain't it... :(

    I must have SOMETHING you want... ;)
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited June 2012
    Can anyone offer some thoughts on the 7939 Cargo Train, as far as when it will EOL and what it might be worth after EOL?

    I ended up with a few recently, and am trying to decide what to do with them. They are selling now on ebay for about $140 shipped (or less), so it's really not worthwhile (for me) to sell them online. I could possibly sell them on CL for $140. Or, I could wait it out and sell them after EOL, if it's worth my while (say expected price of $250 or more).

    Thanks for any insightful info anyone can offer. My apologies if this has been previously discussed, and I would appreciate any links to related information, if applicable. I didn't find what I was looking for via a quick search.

    *I previously promised one to someone, so if that someone reads this, don't worry, it'll still be there for you if/when ya want it.
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,918
    edited June 2012
    @sidersdd @LegoFanTexas I'm at the mall right now and won't make it into the store until 4:30. The store sets will probably be long gone by then. :( but i'll check back with you guys later.
    There was a big group of use there at 4am. They let 30 in at a time. We were in the first group of 30. I thought we were aiming high at 12 sets but some folks walked out with alot more. I got the manager to agree to honor gift card purchases so we all stacked up on $35 gift cards with sets. They were all gone by 11:30am. If you want the minifigs join us at 4am tomorrow!
    I'm happy for you! And I'm definitely not coming back tomorrow. My parents would kill me if I asked them. lol. But I guess the good side to this trip is I filled my first PAB cup at Bellevue. It was a whole lot of fun.

    So, sorry @LegoFanTexas and @Sidersdd Hope you find another user who is willing to trade. I was looking forward to the SE. :(
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Bummer that you didn't get some, but that is life... :)

    I thought about driving down to Houston for the recent grand opening, but the idea of standing in line for hours to get a free 240 part set, seems a bit silly. Even if it is worth $100, driving 4 hours each way to go get it, rather defeats the point, unless I can get 20 of them. :)
  • SecretjediSecretjedi Member Posts: 175
    Hoth Echo Base, while not as good or as interesting as Cloud City should do well I would think.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Even if HEB did shoot up in value, I'd never buy it, nothing about that set really does anything for me
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    The only playsets ill probably be buying are MF as I love anything to do with monsters and horror, does anyone think there will be another wave of MF sets come out within the next couple of years?, would love it if there was instead of it being a short lived failure
  • black_towrblack_towr MinnesotaMember Posts: 165
    The only playsets ill probably be buying are MF as I love anything to do with monsters and horror, does anyone think there will be another wave of MF sets come out within the next couple of years?, would love it if there was instead of it being a short lived failure
    I don't think MF is or will be a failure. Whenever I'm at the Lego store I always see parents buying them for their kids. Besides MF has the zombie set which releases in August and of course the Haunted House in September.

  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    The only playsets ill probably be buying are MF as I love anything to do with monsters and horror, does anyone think there will be another wave of MF sets come out within the next couple of years?, would love it if there was instead of it being a short lived failure
    I don't think MF is or will be a failure. Whenever I'm at the Lego store I always see parents buying them for their kids. Besides MF has the zombie set which releases in August and of course the Haunted House in September.

    The zombie set has already been released here in UK:)
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    10212 - SW Imperial Shuttle is now out of stock online at Amazon, Walmart and Target. Could be an indicator it will go EOL soon from [email protected]
  • black_towrblack_towr MinnesotaMember Posts: 165
    The only playsets ill probably be buying are MF as I love anything to do with monsters and horror, does anyone think there will be another wave of MF sets come out within the next couple of years?, would love it if there was instead of it being a short lived failure
    I don't think MF is or will be a failure. Whenever I'm at the Lego store I always see parents buying them for their kids. Besides MF has the zombie set which releases in August and of course the Haunted House in September.

    The zombie set has already been released here in UK:)
    We here in the US aren't as fortunate. I still see the MF series being a strong seller for Lego. A few of the sets will command strong aftermarket prices as well IMO.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Another thought...

    On the back of my box of 10221 - UCS Super Star Destroyer, there are three Lego sets advertised...

    10198 - Tantive IV (now retired)
    10212 - UCS Imperial Shuttle (still for sale)
    10215 - UCS Obi-Wai's Starfighter (now retired)

    I found it interesting that they have sets on there that retired so soon after SSD came out, which makes me wonder if 10212 is going next.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    10212 - SW Imperial Shuttle is now out of stock online at Amazon, Walmart and Target. Could be an indicator it will go EOL soon from [email protected]
    I'm seeing it as in-stock at Walmart.com still. ToysRUs.com still has it as well.

    Anyone seen it lately in their LEGO Stores? Mine hasn't had it since the May 4th sale, but it's a smaller store.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432

    So, sorry @LegoFanTexas and @Sidersdd Hope you find another user who is willing to trade. I was looking forward to the SE. :(
    No worries. Thanks.
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,270
    Another thought...

    On the back of my box of 10221 - UCS Super Star Destroyer, there are three Lego sets advertised...

    10198 - Tantive IV (now retired)
    10212 - UCS Imperial Shuttle (still for sale)
    10215 - UCS Obi-Wai's Starfighter (now retired)

    I found it interesting that they have sets on there that retired so soon after SSD came out, which makes me wonder if 10212 is going next.
    Weren't those also just the only UCS sets out when SSD came out?
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