Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

LegoFanTexas

@prevere - post a link to your bricklink store, I'll see what you have... that is the type of seller I want to buy from! :)

BrickDancer

The Taj is a good example of a set I would want need new and willing to pay the difference to make sure the pieces are new. Whether buying MISB or Bricklinking the whole thing. I wouldn't want to take the risk of dirty, dusty, sun damage on a set with lots of white. Such as the Imperial Shuttle also.

cloaked7

Last year when I saw the price of modulars increasing like crazy I decided to get one set I was missing, Cafe Corner. After seeing what MIB was selling for I opted to get a used set. I found one that was complete and with the box. It was dusty from having been displayed, but other than that it was a great buy. It had ALL the pieces. Thing is, I could sell it today for a profit, because of the way modulars have been increasing in price.

I have also got about 10 other sets that were used, and advertised as complete. I will admit, most were not complete, but were very close. Missing 2-3 pieces. The one time there were about 10 pieces missing I contacted the seller and they sent me the missing pieces. For those other sets with missing pieces they were not unique pieces and no problem to replace. Given the cost savings I don't mind getting a used set.

One word of advice, build the set as soon as you get it to determine if you got all the pieces. Contacting the seller ASAP helps.

Viere

Last year when I saw the price of modulars increasing like crazy I decided to get one set I was missing, Cafe Corner. After seeing what MIB was selling for I opted to get a used set. I found one that was complete and with the box. It was dusty from having been displayed, but other than that it was a great buy. It had ALL the pieces. Thing is, I could sell it today for a profit, because of the way modulars have been increasing in price.

I have also got about 10 other sets that were used, and advertised as complete. I will admit, most were not complete, but were very close. Missing 2-3 pieces. The one time there were about 10 pieces missing I contacted the seller and they sent me the missing pieces. For those other sets with missing pieces they were not unique pieces and no problem to replace. Given the cost savings I don't mind getting a used set.

One word of advice, build the set as soon as you get it to determine if you got all the pieces. Contacting the seller ASAP helps.

If I only read your advice earlier... This was excactly the mistake I made. I bought three items (from different sellers) only to find out two months later they were missing pieces.

UKtsumi

^ good avice, I recieved a purchase from ebay , it was so well boxed that I just stored it away, 2 weeks later I only opened it because I wanted the outer box for packaging ..... and it was a completely different item. the seller had mixed up his shipments, the other buyer must have thought it was great, getting a RRP £90 lego set for £25 delivered!

prevere

@prevere - post a link to your bricklink store, I'll see what you have... that is the type of seller I want to buy from! :)

Thanks LFT.

Actually - I'm primarily on eBay. My Bricklink store is under construction. I'm more of a set seller than parts (and old ones at that). But I have a large workshop in my basement. I'll offer a extra discount for anyone on the forum that mentions it.

http://stores.ebay.com/Paul-Reveres-Brick-House

prevere

I also have about 100 sets "greenlighted" at any given moment. In the works, just missing a few parts here and there that are on order. Notables right now are a UCS X-Wing, Legoredo, Amazon Ruins, NHL Championship, Imperial Inspection, Batcycle/Harley Quinn, London Bus.

Ok, I'm done with the plugs. Rebuilding vintage sets is really what I enjoy doing the most. My wife and I are working on an adoption, so right now all the Lego profits go for that.

mnbvc

One word of advice, build the set as soon as you get it to determine if you got all the pieces. Contacting the seller ASAP helps.

I find building used sets that I've bought from ebay a really horrible, stressful experience. Each time that I can't find a brick, I end up thinking, "This is it, I've been screwed over, it's not 100% complete...oh wait, there's the brick." Repeat that 50 times in a build and your blood pressure is through the roof.

Although having said that, I've only been stung twice - one I got a refund on, and the other I was so angry, I couldn't bring myself to sort it out...but had I studied the pictures a little closer (don't bid from your phone!), I'd have probably noticed the errors.

But yeah, I agree with your advice - I always build straight away, and once I've determined the pieces are there, I take it apart and then I can build it again a couple of months later under no stress!

nkx1

^I bought an open-box (but otherwise new) set from Craigslist once, and wasn't sure if all the bags were there. I had to sort out the parts according to the parts list first, so I wouldn't stress myself out while building lol.

cloaked7

Yup, as I mentioned, if you buy a used LEGO set the odds seems to be that there will be missing parts. It is a bit stressful. I too stress when I can't find a part relatively quickly, and am thinking 'oh boy, something else that is missing'. But, most of the time I find the part that I thought was missing. Anyway, knowing that the odds are there will be missing pieces it makes sense to build the set to determine what, if any, is missing. Each time I contacted a seller about missing pieces it was resolved. And, have never had any key pieces missing.

prevere

Yup, as I mentioned, if you buy a used LEGO set the odds seems to be that there will be missing parts. It is a bit stressful. I too stress when I can't find a part relatively quickly, and am thinking 'oh boy, something else that is missing'. But, most of the time I find the part that I thought was missing. Anyway, knowing that the odds are there will be missing pieces it makes sense to build the set to determine what, if any, is missing. Each time I contacted a seller about missing pieces it was resolved. And, have never had any key pieces missing.

When you're selling pre-owned sets, Xmas becomes a bit stressful as a seller. For parents buying sets for the big day, I hope and pray I got it right. Usually I get a couple emails, of "You ruined my son's Xmas because the X-Wing I bought is missing a flat part (1x2 plate)." Smart parents will "pre-build" these set days before to ensure completion, then dissemble.

JBricks27

When do you think would be the best time to sell a 3300003 Lego store at max profit? I'm trying to decide if I should list it now or sit on it for a year or longer.

Gavin83

What do you think the likelihood is of the Green Grocer increasing in price in the next year? I've just come into a bit of money and was considering buying one but at the same time I could be using the cash for something else.

If I hold off a year am I going to be paying loads more?

MCNwakeboard

I'd say the price is going to increase as there is a limited supply and the price has been steadily increasing since January. Try to find one at a lower than average price and call it good. You could also try piecing one together from Bricklink, though that would be time consuming.

doriansdad

What do you think the likelihood is of the Green Grocer increasing in price in the next year? I've just come into a bit of money and was considering buying one but at the same time I could be using the cash for something else.

If I hold off a year am I going to be paying loads more?

The price of Green Grocer jumped when the sand green pieces were not readily available anymore. The new Haunted House set will change that. I'd expect prices to actually drop on this set as recreating an exact copy will become much cheaper.

kim43235

One word of advice, build the set as soon as you get it to determine if you got all the pieces. Contacting the seller ASAP helps.

I find building used sets that I've bought from ebay a really horrible, stressful experience. Each time that I can't find a brick, I end up thinking, "This is it, I've been screwed over, it's not 100% complete...oh wait, there's the brick." Repeat that 50 times in a build and your blood pressure is through the roof.

Although having said that, I've only been stung twice - one I got a refund on, and the other I was so angry, I couldn't bring myself to sort it out...but had I studied the pictures a little closer (don't bid from your phone!), I'd have probably noticed the errors.

But yeah, I agree with your advice - I always build straight away, and once I've determined the pieces are there, I take it apart and then I can build it again a couple of months later under no stress!

You expressed exactly how I feel every time I build used sets. But sometimes it gives you excitements when you got used set at very good price and ended up almost complete set. My first lego set as AFOL was tantive iv from goodwill at $2 I think. After few road blocks of "I'm done", actually it was a complete set with only two chairs missing. I was so happy.

However, I've been burned with GG recently from ebay. I paid about normal price for it just over $400. I expected it to be complete. I was so busy and I put out for about two months and found out a lot of pieces were missing. Contacted the seller but it's not going very well. He/she said his/her son died and lost his/her job. I'm out of ebay buyer protection stuff. I'm thinking about asking full refund or order parts myself.

Recently I bought used/incomplete/discolored CC from ebay. I must build asap but still hard to find time to build to confirm it only misses what the seller said so.

madforLEGO

When you're selling pre-owned sets, Xmas becomes a bit stressful as a seller. For parents buying sets for the big day, I hope and pray I got it right. Usually I get a couple emails, of "You ruined my son's Xmas because the X-Wing I bought is missing a flat part (1x2 plate)." Smart parents will "pre-build" these set days before to ensure completion, then dissemble.


That is why I hold on my pre owned sets until after Christmas

madforLEGO

What do you think the likelihood is of the Green Grocer increasing in price in the next year? I've just come into a bit of money and was considering buying one but at the same time I could be using the cash for something else.

If I hold off a year am I going to be paying loads more?

The price of Green Grocer jumped when the sand green pieces were not readily available anymore. The new Haunted House set will change that. I'd expect prices to actually drop on this set as recreating an exact copy will become much cheaper.

Green Grocer will go up. Just because a handful of people build used sets, which may or may not be the 'correct' parts used in the original, does not mean the demand for a sealed box will go down IMO.
It is a matter of preference though.. do you:
A) spend the cash on a mint version, factory sealed by LEGO
B) Do you try to part one out via BL or other sites

It also is how much time you want to put into it.

Odindusk

Speaking specifically to eBay (U.S.), GG has been fluctuating mildly over the past 9 months or so. For awhile it was commanding $550-$575, but the past few weeks the average seems to be more like $475-ish.

madforLEGO

Speaking specifically to eBay (U.S.), GG has been fluctuating mildly over the past 9 months or so. For awhile it was commanding $550-$575, but the past few weeks the average seems to be more like $475-ish.

It is summer time in US.. very bad time to try to gauge interest into a set as the whole LEGO 'market' is depressed as it is really an 'indoor' toy...
Fall will give a better gauge, but I do not see why GG would not go up in the vein of Cafe Corner.

gmpirate

^I bought an open-box (but otherwise new) set from Craigslist once, and wasn't sure if all the bags were there. I had to sort out the parts according to the parts list first, so I wouldn't stress myself out while building lol.

I think this is a much more efficient way of determining if the sets are complete or not. Just sort by color/plates/bricks/technic etc. and go down the parts list. It's a pretty quick process relatively speaking.

doriansdad

Green Grocer will go up. Just because a handful of people build used sets, which may or may not be the 'correct' parts used in the original, does not mean the demand for a sealed box will go down IMO.
It is a matter of preference though.. do you:
A) spend the cash on a mint version, factory sealed by LEGO
B) Do you try to part one out via BL or other sites

It also is how much time you want to put into it.

Economics tells us the price of Green Grocer will converge with price of the sum of its parts - that is the bricks, box and instructions. Given the sand green bricks added a few hundred to the price and these will be cheap again means the price will fall. Sealed boxes will command a premium but that will be a steady rate above the price of the sum of its parts, and so will fall accordingly. There may be a few weeks where there will be a distortion in the market until prices adjust, but they will adjust eventually. I'd say this set should around $100 in price in late September.

doriansdad

^ Sorry that should read drop ~ $100.

LegoFanTexas

^ I agree that the used value of this set won't rise as much as CC has... but the sealed box market is separate from the bricklinked market...

There is a part of the market that only buys new sealed boxes, and that market will be chasing an ever smaller part of the supply.

Haunted House making more green bricks doesn't add to the supply of sealed GG boxes.

What I think will happen is the difference in price between a new and used GG will grow, with a new in box copy going for about twice what a used copy goes for. I expect to see GG going for $750 in December with a used copy going for $400 in December.

There are fewer and fewer sealed copies, with a fairly fixed number of people chasing them.

madforLEGO

Economics tells us the price of Green Grocer will converge with price of the sum of its parts - that is the bricks, box and instructions. Given the sand green bricks added a few hundred to the price and these will be cheap again means the price will fall. Sealed boxes will command a premium but that will be a steady rate above the price of the sum of its parts, and so will fall accordingly. There may be a few weeks where there will be a distortion in the market until prices adjust, but they will adjust eventually. I'd say this set should around $100 in price in late September.

By your reasoning the Cafe corner would not be about 1200 dollars because its parts would not add up to that.


@LFT: exactly, you put it much better than I.. This set will go up and to be honest if you want any hard to find discontinued set Id almost say buy it now because more than likely it will go up, whether by 10-100 bucks who knows, depending on the set, but my guess is that sets will rise in cost.

sidersdd

Plus, I thought someone took a good scan through the images that TLG made available on the Haunted House and determined that 1x8 sand green bricks were not present. Green Grocer requires 50 of these, and quantities are very scarce on Bricklink. It appears the Haunted House is using the 1x6 sand green bricks (which is awesome for anyone wanting to Bricklink the 3450 Statue of Liberty).

LegoFanTexas

^ If that is true about the 1x6 sand green bricks, then it only sorta helps GG...

One question is, can you use a pair of 1x4 sand green bricks in place of a single 1x8? Can you use a 1x2 sand green brick plus a 1x6 sand green brick in place of a single 1x8?

I would imagine as these parts become hard to find, such creative options become more helpful. It is also probably why the automated options for bricklinking will never be perfect, because of such changes that could really cut the price of building the set.

cloaked7

LEGO Minecraft 21102 It's been mentioned briefly. Some think it will become collectible, some not. Some have mentioned it is a niche market, with some not knowing what Minecraft was until the LEGO set came out.

One aspect of collectibility is the quantity produced. So, if this set is limited in production maybe it will be somewhat collectible. Any guesses on how long the set will be made and will a low, medium, or high quantity of them made? I'm leaning toward limited availability and available for less than 1 year. It has unique boxing and is a niche market IMHO, so I don't see LEGO making a lot of them over a long period of time.

It's currently selling above retail on eBay. $60 + ship or $70 w/ free ship.

Renny

I think the Minecraft set will do very well in the aftermarket. There is a very devout following for the game and I can see fans wanting this set well after it has been out of print. It doesn't seem to be very well marketed however and the current ebay prices support that. What helps too is that I have read some people are actually combining multiple sets to create an even bigger display.

Not sure about production numbers but I don't think they will support it for more than a year, although it is selling very well according to the Lego site.

cloaked7

...it is selling very well according to the Lego site.

Good point and very interesting. I just checked and it is listed second in Top Selling Sets. :-) I wonder if that is people buying them to resell given they can make a small profit on eBay now?

I think the set has several things going for it.
- As mentioned, it can be added to, so a person could buy multiples for that reason.
- It has a good price point, only $35.00. (Yup, the pieces are small.)
- Xbox, PS3, and computer gaming is a huge market now. I think it's now larger than the movie industry. So, you may have a lot of gamers that don't normally buy LEGOS getting the set. And, you have LEGO builders getting it.
- After reading some of the reviews of the set some people addition sets. I quote "there should definietly be more sets in the theme. A testificate village, maybe? A jungle biome? A desert village? (coming in 1.3) a desert pyramid? (also coming in 1.3) A jungle temple? (also in 1.3) Or maybe a stronghold, or dunegon, or the Nether with a portal, or a Nether Fortress, or maybe... the End?" If that happens this could be the equivalent of Market Street on a smaller scale. Just think of the set being EOL, then add on or additional sets come out. People that didn't get that first set will just have to get it. If you're collecting the sets you want all of them if possible.

prevere

Plus, I thought someone took a good scan through the images that TLG made available on the Haunted House and determined that 1x8 sand green bricks were not present. Green Grocer requires 50 of these, and quantities are very scarce on Bricklink. It appears the Haunted House is using the 1x6 sand green bricks (which is awesome for anyone wanting to Bricklink the 3450 Statue of Liberty).

That's a great thought for the Statue of Liberty, Sidersdd - I like your thinking.

Unfortunately, the limited quantities of parts we see from HH will show as new on Bricklink for awhile, so the cost on those will be high. And Lady Liberty is practically all sand green, you'll have a devil of a time finding the correct parts to git er done.

Note especially, the "Round Brick Corner 2x2 Macaroni" is insanely expensive, I mean bad. You need 4 for the set, and the minimum price is $30 per part!!! Not to mention the "3x2 Inverted Slope 33" - $13 for that. But only need 1, so you have that going for you.

graphite

Next will be the UCS Minecraft set that will look like this.

Pitfall69

^ I agree that the used value of this set won't rise as much as CC has... but the sealed box market is separate from the bricklinked market...

There is a part of the market that only buys new sealed boxes, and that market will be chasing an ever smaller part of the supply.

Haunted House making more green bricks doesn't add to the supply of sealed GG boxes.

What I think will happen is the difference in price between a new and used GG will grow, with a new in box copy going for about twice what a used copy goes for. I expect to see GG going for $750 in December with a used copy going for $400 in December.

There are fewer and fewer sealed copies, with a fairly fixed number of people chasing them.

I agree.When the Haunted House comes out, it will probably only cause the price of "used"sets to go down and make Bricklink sellers selling Sand Green bricks to lower their prices. This will make "bricklinking" a GG cheaper.

The are buyers that only buy sealed boxes and the supply of sealed GG is getting smaller.From reading all the horror stories from buying used sets know there is a large amount of people that will pay extra for a sealed set. The supply of GG gets smaller the demand is still there, the prices will go up.

FatMatt

@MCNwakeboard
Emerald Night has only leveled out because it is now summer and Lego prices across the board are not really rising at all right now. Give it 3-4 months and it will start climbing again. The same is true for 10210, 10195, and any other recently retired sets. 10198 would be the exception because it had a later retirement and there was a lot of stock still around after that, but even it has pretty much leveled out now.

LegoFanTexas

Imperial Shuttle (10212) has now been discounted by 20% by Target, Walmart, and Amazon...

What do you all think, summer sale, or is it getting ready to go for when the B-Wing comes out?

I personally get the feeling it won't go until Christmas, and even then it is a maybe... Shame if it goes, beautiful set... anyone who likes big sets, likes Star Wars, and thinks "aww, it is just a shuttle, what is the big deal", needs to see one in person, on the stand, with the wings deployed...

It is larger than 10188 Death Star in width and height...

mathew

^ The Target sale lasted less than 12 hours, correct? And it also sold out quickly during the May 4th S@H sale. My guess is that it is selling briskly when on sale. I think Lego is now doing a slow "fade out" of their hard to find sets. How long has everyone been predicting MMV's demise? Fire Brigade? These sets will probably hover around extinction until the end of the year.

LegoFanTexas

Yes, I'm sure it is selling well during sales, but is it selling to end customers, or to resellers?

Then again, while I don't recall Target having a limit, Amazon has reduced their limit from 5 to 2 on many Lego sets, including this one.

berniebond

just bought another DS for 310 Euro. Could not resist!

Will i regret it??

I m thinking I could sell for 360 tomorrow if I want...

UKtsumi

deleted

berniebond

I have to add to my post from before, that this is my 2nd DS and I want to use one for my kids and myself. So if I could sell the second one,the first one would get a bit cheaper, maybe around .7c/piece I hope.

I dont know if I want to store it until its finally EOL'd- IF this day ever comes...

Whats the prediction for the day the DS is EOL and the immidiate "aftermath"?

mak

just bought another DS for 310 Euro. Could not resist!

Will i regret it??

I m thinking I could sell for 360 tomorrow if I want...

That sounds like a good deal. Does that include shipping?

prevere

Winter Toy Shop EOL'd at about this time last year. What are thoughts the Winter Bakery will do the same soon?

I can't remember if WTS was available at BF last year.

berniebond

That sounds like a good deal. Does that include shipping?

Thats amazon.it including shipping.

It said 1 in stock in the morning and in the afternoon it was gone and later there was again only 1 on stock, which I bought.

Maybe it keeps popping up at this price once more.

tvih

Yeah, I had a look at the DS in amazon.it and amazon.es yesterday as well, but no more available at that price now. Would've grabbed it had I had the money to do so. It quite sucks that the price in the Finnish Lego S@H has to be so high compared to UK etc.

Pacific493

Imperial Shuttle (10212) has now been discounted by 20% by Target, Walmart, and Amazon...

What do you all think, summer sale, or is it getting ready to go for when the B-Wing comes out?

The recent spate of sales are reminiscent of when other larger sets (like Taj Mahal) and other UCS sets went EOL. IIRC, Taj Mahal was on sale for around $250 for almost all of the last 3-6 months it was on the market and it seems like 10030 was similarly on sale for an extended period of time. I have no idea when 10212 will go EOL, but I would be surprised if it is still for sale this time next year.

Steve_J_OM

Winter Toy Shop EOL'd at about this time last year. What are thoughts the Winter Bakery will do the same soon?

I can't remember if WTS was available at BF last year.

The Toy Shop was available right up until Christmas. As far as I can see, all of the WV sets disappear during the summer and return later in the year again - consensus seems to be that the TS is gone for good this time (though from my reading a lot of people said the same last year too before it returned). If that's the case, then it was available for three years. This is the third year of the Bakery as well, so if it follows the same pattern I guess it'll be gone after Christmas too.

dougts

Winter Toy Shop EOL'd at about this time last year. What are thoughts the Winter Bakery will do the same soon?

I can't remember if WTS was available at BF last year.

WTS was available at BF and actually well into December as well. I think it finally went EOL right after Christmas if I remember correctly.

prevere

Winter Toy Shop EOL'd at about this time last year. What are thoughts the Winter Bakery will do the same soon?

I can't remember if WTS was available at BF last year.

WTS was available at BF and actually well into December as well. I think it finally went EOL right after Christmas if I remember correctly.

Thanks. I'll keep the WB on the backburner then. Probably grab one before TGiving just to be sure.

LegoFanTexas

We have all three WV sets, I think WTS was the best so far, but the others are nice as well.

We need a new one this year, hopefully something good. :)

prevere

It seemed as the though an ice rink, ski slopes or candy shop were the crowd favorites on brickset.

Well, I think we'll know soon. The last 3 sets were live on 10-9-09, 10-10-10, 10-11-11, respectively. The post office press release came out last August.