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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    I don't feel like I have seen this discussed much: but the Star Wars Advent Calendar is sure to sell out soon (by end of January) and is guaranteed for retirement. Two just arrived in the mail today, and I hadn't realized they clearly state 2011 on them. This is a rare occasion that a Star Wars set is available only for a few months before retirement. Stores seem to be loaded with them, but I'm wondering if this might be a sleeper in terms of become rare/valuable after retirement. Not to mention it has that "exclusive" Yoda Santa figure! Lame, I know, but exclusive none the less.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I just got 16 of the Star Wars Advent Calender's in the mail from LegoLand California for $19.99 each (yea, a heck of a deal!)

    I'm betting the same thing, that next year these are worth $60 to $80 each, because there won't be a Star Wars Advent Calender next year, it will be something else, probably Superheros or something like that.
  • DavidRod8DavidRod8 Member Posts: 143
    @LegoFanTexas I know what you mean... I keep debating myself whether to go for a MBA or not, but with 3 little ones at home is hard to stay away from them... :) I like your saying... Money doesn't buy hapinness, it just rents comfort ;) so true.....
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Back to the forum topic at hand (so we don't go WAY off topic)

    Death Star is down to 29 units, and is sold out on [email protected] until after Christmas now.

    Either Lego is making another 50,000 of them or the "Big Day" is coming. :)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    @LegoFanTexas - nice. I have a young one, and work from home with my own business. My wife is home too, so we have lots of family time. And, of course, time to check Brickset and run out to the toy store! :)
    Excellent. Nice to hear about everyone's background. I work in pharmaceuticals, but with little travel, which is nice. And my wife has her own biz (agriculture), working from home. Like LegoFanTexas, she is extremely supportive of the Lego business, "Paul Revere's Brick House", partly because the profits are going for an adoption.

    Working on expansion of my Lego workshop, just had my guy over tonight about adding new walls and carpet for it. :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Death Star down to 8 sets, that was quick. Thought it might take until tomorrow, but I suppose once it gets low, they go fast.

    Hmm, do I buy another one or not? Sigh...
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    I bought an extra one myself... just in case. I doubt this set will hit the astronomical prices the UCS Falcon attained, but better to pick up a spare then kick myself later.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    1 left, anyone want it? :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    All gone...

    :)
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    edited December 2011
    My $0.02 on the Star Wars Death Star: contrary to what everyone is saying, I believe this one will stick for longer. It's such a great set and I don't think LEGO will retire it now. Just my feeling. As far as prices going up on this one, I think it will go higher than a couple of hundreds on the coming months. I predict this one to reach $1000 in 4 to 5 months, if it retires now. It's not that evident that this set is going out, like others (Emerald Night, Imperial Frigate), so I believe it will go up quicker in price. Again, just my 2 cents...
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    My gut is that @coolpix is right. LEGO prominently displays this model in the windows of their stores, in the key corner location of the Rockefeller Center store, and a full page spread in their catalogs. Their Star Wars UCS sets are not really playable, and not ships that are so iconic that both parents and kids will love. This is the $400 LEGO set that serves all markets (meaning young and old), and has for years.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    If DS stays, then Endor is definitely gone. Hoth base has a good year or two left I'd guess.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    @brickupdate, I agree with you, but not only that, but as we've seen with other exclusive sets, it seems that LEGO is allowing these exclusive sets to stick for longer this time. Their market strategists are not stupid, and they can see what's going on with the likes of UCS Falcon Millenium, Green Grocer and Cafe Corner, thus allowing sets like Fire Brigade and Death Star to stay longer, capitalizing both in the panic of Collectors and Speculators and keeping a great set that represents well their line into the stores. By the way, Fire Brigade is another one that I think will be discounted by the 26th, but not discontinued. It will live through 2012.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    edited December 2011
    @prevere Endor may be gone, since it's already somewhat old and it almost was done last year. I panicked and bought 2 before Xmas last year at Retail price, and I still have one MISB here, however, with the release of other "Ewok" sets in 2011, they may want to have that highly playable set (one of the sets I enjoyed the most, from my limited collection) stick for even longer. Hoth base just came out, and it will definitely stay for a couple more years. Luke's Landspeeder is on it's way out for sure. Someone mentioned that "White box" SW sets will be out this time, and I believe that to be true. Tantive IV is also likely to be gone, since it does not sell well and has poor playability.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @coolpix - you may be right, but that is a trick they can only pull once, what do they do for an encore?

    If they keep FB and DS around for another year, that will end a lot of the collector hording and speculation. Yes, they'll get a short term boost, but at the cost of a lot of long term sales.

    TLG would be wise not to bite the hand that fees them. If FB and DS don't go out now, I am unlikely to continue to buy sets as I have been doing in the future, as TLG will have become unpredictable.

    Their choice, but it comes at a cost. I can't be the only person reading the tea leaves, as the old saying goes, burn me once, shame on you, burn me twice, shame on me.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    Just to complete my list of SW going EOL in 2011... both Rebel and Snowtrooper battlepacks, ARC-170 Starfighter, Hoth Wampa Cave, Obi-Wan's Starfighter (that's pretty obvious) and Republic Dropship with AT-OT Walker.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    Tantive IV seems like a dud. Frigate is a much better set. I just wish I would have bought more AT-TE and Republic Cruisers. Boy those are something now.

    Clone Turbo Tank is another hottie. The new one isn't quite as nice. But it seems we hear very little about this set; and long term it's a lock. Also, rarely found for BOGO pricing. Although, it's $100 on Amazon right now.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    This is coming out of left field, but even the dorkiest of series and sets gain value over time. I remember seeing the original Bionicle series on clearance at Kohl's no less for $5 a cannister. And I thought - who the heck is gonna buy that.

    The original Tahu sealed, has sold for $300+ on eBay. Mind-boggling.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    The third-party Death Stars at $450 are also going pretty quickly on Amazon. Even if it's not gone for good, some people are panicked enough to buy it above MSRP.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    @LegoFanTexas I agree with you, this may break the collector hoarding, and under that logic, specially because we may have another Modular building coming spring 2012, then Fire Brigade seems to be a reasonable choice for a retiring set. There are plenty of stores saying they are not getting any more of them. As for Death Star, I don't see anything that could replace it.

    We speculate here, but we don't know what goes on inside the company, and if their developers are able to come up with original ideas for UCS Star Wars sets and Modular buildings, maybe nothing really good came up on the "drawing board" so then they decide to keep something for long on the shelves. It's unlikely give the profusion of fantastic creative work we see on all Fan sites and Flickr, specially on modular buildings.

    We don't even know if LEGO likes that kind of hoarding (I know, a sale is a sale, no matter who's buying), and then they may want to keep sets that are great out for a bit longer just to end that kind of behavior.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    edited December 2011
    The third-party Death Stars at $450 are also going pretty quickly on Amazon. Even if it's not gone for good, some people are panicked enough to buy it above MSRP.
    Its going fast, right before Xmas, with the set never reaching a discounted price from LEGO, if I am not mistaken. If I was part of LEGO's market strategy team, I'd keep it out for another year just because of that. "$400 set selling like hotcakes in December? Product is performing great, let's keep it for another year!". It seems that LEGO follows that pattern. If set is not performing, stop production, put it on sale and be done with it! That was true for Imperial Frigate, UCS Falcon, Green Grocer, Cafe Corner and many other not so big sets. This one is not even 5% off and it's sold out! They'll keep it along for longer.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,383
    I so desperately wanted that Aircraft Carrier as a kid. Sigh. :o)
    We all did. I've still never seen one set-up in person. Even the rich kids at my school never got it.

    I have thought about duplicating the MegaBlok aircraft carrier in Lego. A year ago, I bought a CD set on eBay with 300 MegaBlok instructions on it; with the goal of duplicating in Lego. Yup, it's still just sittin' on my desk.
    Kid I knew had one, it was neat and huge for a toy, also saw one sitting in an antiques mall for only about $50 or $75 or something.. if I only knew then what I know now....
  • LambringoLambringo Member Posts: 104
    Give it a week or so and the DS will be back over 1000 in stock I think. They sold out a few weeks ago on amazon.fr but they are back again there now on special. If i was amazon and I could sell 1000 DS in less than a week, I would sure as hell be placing another order with LEGO. They are still readily available from my [email protected]

    The camper and Maersk train were only released in my country mid this year and has not been made available to any department stores as their exclusive as yet (this happens with these price point exclusives).

    In my mind battle of endor, FB, EN, at-at, lukes landspeeder, yellow cargo and world racers theme will be gone soon enough as they have stopped showing up in the local stores that normally carry everything.

    I have 2 DS in my cupboard and expect them to make at least 100% within a year of them being dicontinued from the price I paid. I could actually sell them now and make 50% profit due to the ridiculous RRP here but I have moved away from the expensive sets and am now purchasing a variety of the small-medium sets that are just too good a price to pass up.
  • kylejohnson11kylejohnson11 Member Posts: 508
    @LegoFanTexas if the LEGO Group were predictable everyone would be hoarding sets :)
  • Rollo_TomassiRollo_Tomassi Member Posts: 113
    @brickupdate. I check in randomly throughout the day. Smartphones are kewl. ;-)
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM Cork, IrelandMember Posts: 944
    What are everyone's thoughts on the Winter Village sets? I know absolutely nothing about them, as they've only piqued my interest lately as we get closer to Christmas. I think between budget/time constraints I'm a little late in getting one for this year's festivities. I'd like to pick the three sets up at various points next year in preparation for Christmas 2012, but wondering if it'll be too late by then. I notice the Toy Shop was released in 2009, I'm assuming that is the prime candidate to go soon.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    Toy Shop was on sale at Brick Friday for $44.98. My feeling is that this one will be 50% off on the 26th and it's the end of the line for it. You may see 25% discounts on Bakery and Post Office after Xmas, but these will stick for longer. That's what I think.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    What are everyone's thoughts on the Winter Village sets? I know absolutely nothing about them, as they've only piqued my interest lately as we get closer to Christmas. I think between budget/time constraints I'm a little late in getting one for this year's festivities. I'd like to pick the three sets up at various points next year in preparation for Christmas 2012, but wondering if it'll be too late by then. I notice the Toy Shop was released in 2009, I'm assuming that is the prime candidate to go soon.
    Long-term these will be great sets. Our family built the Toy Shop on Thanksgiving - it's a really fun set. If it were retired, I'd pay a bunch of $ to get one.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    The Winter Toy shop is gone for good. The whole winter theme is very cool. I remember when the Toy Shop sold out the first year and prices skyrocketed but Lego knows to keep sets around longer nowdays.

    Battle of Endor is done and followed the same pattern as 7666. Its reintroduction was only very brief.

    The Death Star has no rare pieces or minifigs so no reason to stop production. Now if the supposed Jabbas Palace rumored for 2012 is a $400 playset then the DS is done. If it is a smaller rehash the the DS will likely remain for another 3 years at least and possibly all the way thru the 3D releases of the OT films unless its pieces are no longer in production.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    I'm shocked at this point that we haven't seen another Jabba set. A UCS Jabba's Palace with a rankor pit & handler, cloaked Luke, blue elephant band, multiple guards...yup, sign us all up for that I think.
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM Cork, IrelandMember Posts: 944
    edited December 2011
    Long-term these will be great sets. Our family built the Toy Shop on Thanksgiving - it's a really fun set. If it were retired, I'd pay a bunch of $ to get one.
    Yeah, that's my thinking - these could be really 'timeless' sets. I can just imagine the winter village growing, and having a great time taking a multi-thousand piece village down from storage every Christmas. Probably best to bite the bullet before the toy shop is gone for good and I'm left perusing eBay for sub $100 prices.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    Exactly what @Steve_J_OM said! I got all 3 sets built recently and love how they look. Would definitely pay big bucks if I discovered them years after EOL just to have all of a unique theme. High potential for return and good discounts coming up make for an excellent pick IMO.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    Grand Emporium is $220 on Amazon (yet available on Lego.com).

    And will somebody (LegoFanTexas cough cough) buy up the rest of the 7591 Construct-a-Zurg. I am so tired of seeing that tall purple monster on all the discount lists!
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    Yeah LFT, I think you should grab a few cases of that purple titan of fail.

    (watch, will probably be a $150 set in five years...)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    Mommy...Can I go to LegoFanTexas's house to play with legos?

    Actually, when I'm pushing up daisies with my nose, my kids (and hopefully grandkids) will remember building lego sets together with the old man. I am an engineer, my brothers are engineers, and my son got a "severe" dose of the engineering gene. I have no doubt he will be a better engineer than his dad (in large part due to the building skills he's acquired and the fun he's had with his legos).

    And to stay on topic, I received my AT-AT Walker that I was really unsure I was going to receive due to it selling out. I was able to pick it up via the Black Friday sale plus 10% off for going over $149. The final item I am waiting for is a Winter Toy Shop, which is still backordered. If I don't get it, that's fine. I tried to get each of the kids a WTS set to have when they grow up, but there's only so much storing for the future a person can do.

    Finally, it looks like the Freeco Speeder is about to sell out, so get it if you haven't already. Probably cheapest at Amazon, although I haven't checked.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    My only concern about retiring the SW DS is that the only big SW set left would the the SSD. And it just doesn't have the playability factor that the DS has in my opinion.

    My wife is fine with legos in general, but really likes the Winter lego sets that have been offered the past couple of years. I have bought her the new offered set each year and she faithfully puts them together. In fact, those sets have replaced the ceramic sets we used to put out as Christmas decorations. Very smart on Lego's part. I expect significant price increases on retired winter sets within a couple of years after they are EOL'd.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    I'm sorry to be insane... but the 'blue elephant band' is The Max Rebo Band. Yeeeeeeesh...

    On topic, do we feel the Death Star has spiked so suddenly more because people ABSOLUTELY need it for Christmas or because people believe it's gone for good? Or maybe a combination of the two.
  • llanowarsoldierllanowarsoldier Ohio USAMember Posts: 357
    It is safe to say that the Winter Toy Shop is done after this year as it is the 3rd holiday season for it, so pick one up while you can. As for the DS with it still being on display at the Lego Stores AND in the catalog it is still going to be around after the holidays. Remember X-mas is usually when people buy the "large" sets that they normally wouldn't during the rest of the year to justify the spending. Now if the DS isn't featured in the next Catalog we should get in February(I think), then that will be the "Uh-oh" sign and it'll be snatched up even faster. If Obi-Wan's Starfighter goes on clearance then I MIGHT pick up that set even though its awful looking and just stick it in my closet and forget about it.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    I'm sorry to be insane... but the 'blue elephant band' is The Max Rebo Band. Yeeeeeeesh...

    On topic, do we feel the Death Star has spiked so suddenly more because people ABSOLUTELY need it for Christmas or because people believe it's gone for good? Or maybe a combination of the two.
    Thanks. I was just too lazy to Google "Star Wars blue elephant ROTJ band". LOL
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Thanks. I was just too lazy to Google "Star Wars blue elephant ROTJ band". LOL
    No problems. I MAY be a bit of a Star Wars nerd... <_< >_> <_<
  • felagundfelagund Member Posts: 1
    Any thoughts on the 3661 Bank Transfer? I find most of the stores around me no longer carry this.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    edited December 2011
    ^ It's a Limited Edition set, so it's hard to say. It may have had a limited production run, so once stock is depleted, we may not see it again. Now, if you are in the US, make sure you look for this set at Target or LEGO Stores. Other retailers don't carry this set.
  • SupersympaSupersympa SwedenMember Posts: 534
    edited December 2011
    Sorry if I bring a bad news (or a good news)....but...Just got hold of my friend who got a toy store in France and he told me: 10197 and 10188 will be on the catalogue next year...
    The only big sets he knows 100% are going away at the end of this year are:
    10195, 10198, 10210 and 10199....
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Just talked to Lego customer service, the rep also told me that FB was due to be around another year, and that yes they may have 4 modular sets for sale at once.

    Sheesh, that is nuts, but oh well... I did have an order pending for 2 more FB and 2 more GE, but decided to cancel those, I have enough of both for now, no need to risk just sitting on them for a year, and given how they have plenty of both for sale, the prices on those may just not rise as much as GG and CC did.

    They did cancel 3 of my backorders, bummer...

    I had 2 each of Tantive IV. Public Transport, and Battle of Endor, all of which were canceled, no more stock and they aren't getting more in.

    They did however ship me my two Imperial Flagships, believe it or not, go figure...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    BTW, if 10188 sticks around for another year, I expect a lot of them are going to get returned to stores in the next month. :)
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Member Posts: 4,401
    I don't know where the stores are going to put all these direct sets. :o)
  • LegogeekLegogeek Orange County, CaliforniaMember Posts: 711
    BTW, if 10188 sticks around for another year, I expect a lot of them are going to get returned to stores in the next month. :)
    If that happens, maybe I can finally get one - cheap!

  • MinifigsMeMinifigsMe Member Posts: 2,844
    This isn't definitive, but a UK store has marked the following for clearance, which means end of the line for them here. But may still be available for longer, but since there ones we've been speculating on, perhaps not.
    Slave I
    Clone tank
    Palpatine's shuttle
    Hogwarts express
    PQ pyramid.
    And a bunch of smaller sets. It could be that they're getting rid to sell different sets, but seems and odd time of year to mark things down to 50%
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    I picked up some Ninjago Lightning Dragon Battles today, which seems to be sold out everywhere. It was released in the summer and gone by mid November, by reports i've seen.

    Glad to hear Death Star and Fire Brigade may be around longer. Its cool walking into LEGO Store and seeing so many amazing sets. Plus, it means more kids will grow up with them, and talk as lovingly about them as we do about the GI Joe USS Flagg.

    Dan
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    edited December 2011
    So it looks like no more predicting when a set will retire, could be 1 year or 5 years.
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