Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Pitfall69

Yes, but I think he was talking about specifically parting out a set to sell the minifigures.

nkx1

I'd be interested to see how TLG will handle using more eco friendly building materials going forward. My wife is a very active conservationist and has a strict "NO PLASTIC" stance in the house. No plastic bags, no plastic bottles, etc etc. It's a bit maddening at times, but I completely understand why. She makes the one exception for my LEGO because she knows I love it so much, and she knows how much a part of my life it is. It would be really awesome if TLG announced some sort of road map or commitment to alternative materials.

It's nice to see that your wife is making that commitment to be a responsible steward of the planet. My wife and I also try to do our part in many ways, but I'll refrain from further detail to avoid derailing the thread.

I also think it would be interesting to see some ideas on this. I think a great place to start would be the elimination of so many plastic bags in each set. I always feel a bit guilty when I see the amount of trash generated after opening all the bags from a large set. I think one possible solution to this would be to replace the plastic bags with biodegradable/compostible bags, such as those formerly used for Sun Chips (even though they were incredibly loud). It's a small step, but one that would probably make a difference when considering how much plastic waste is generated in connection with the millions and millions of Lego sets sold.

Pitfall69

When I was in engineering I got to get my hands on a plastic injection mold machine. I reused the already melted plastic countless number of times. Plastic is not the enemy here. People throwing into the woods or the ocean is the problem. It's like a gun...all by itself it is harmless, until a person decides to pick it up and use it.

Pitfall69

I run into people all the time. "Im a vegan"...ok, so why do you have leather seats in your car. "Buy American!"...Ok, then why is your home filled 90% with products made from other countries? Conservation is great, but again, plastic is not the problem.

thornie

I didn't mean to derail this thread. I apologize! :) Maybe this is something we all can discuss in another thread? I think it's very fascinating to hear everyones opinions on this sort of thing.

Pitfall69

No need, we ALL do it.

"We can dispense with plesantries commander. I'm here to put you back on schedule"

nkx1

When I was in engineering I got to get my hands on a plastic injection mold machine. I reused the already melted plastic countless number of times. Plastic is not the enemy here. People throwing into the woods or the ocean is the problem. It's like a gun...all by itself it is harmless, until a person decides to pick it up and use it.

I mostly agree with this. Of course, this point of view does not take into consideration that recycling of plastic entails significant consumption of energy, which, as of the present time, almost always entails pollution of one type or another. Further, not everyone may be responsible as you or I (recycling), nor will they ever be. Some people either don't care and/or are ignorant (willfully or otherwise) about preservation of the planet for present and future generations of all species. Even if disposed of in a land fill, plastic can pose significant environmental risks to groundwater that we drink. It's not just plastic; being a responsible human involves much more than that. I'm not trying to preach anything here; I do my share of polluting just by being a collector/consumer of Lego (in addition to various other things)!

nkx1

^^Fair enough, back to Lego collecting!

cloaked7

While we're on a ecology tangent. :-) What does everyone think about fluorescent bulbs? I think in theory the concept is great, but I don't see the implementation being eco-friendly.

I have yet to see how they benefit the environment over incandescent lights. For one I am sure they cost a lot more in energy and materials to mfg. And, some of the materials used are very harmful. Sure, they are cheaper to use. But, they sure cost a lot more to purchase. And, what about the disposal of them? If one breaks in your house you're supposed to ventilate the room, etc. Don't vacuum up the parts, but carefully sweep them into a sealable bag and take to a special collection center. Eco-friendly? And, a similar disposal for ones that don't work. They will end up being added mercury to a landfill at some point. The contents of the light is probably going to spill out somewhere, somehow, even if sealed in a bag.

Finally, I have had absolutely terrible reliability out of them. I have had them last 3 - 6 months when they should last 3 - 6 years. I simply don't think they have all of the kinks worked out when it comes to making your std 60 watt bulb into a fluorescent model. Without a doubt they have not saved me any coin. Just the opposite.

I already have 8-10 of them in a sealed bag right now that died an early death and am not sure what to do with them.

cheshirecat

Just to be clear, plastic can't be infinately recycled, unlike most metals.

However plastic lego isn't a problem, especially given how long it lasts and that it can be used over and over again. Also in lego's favour is that if one part breaks or is lost it doesn't require the entire toy to be disposed, which a power ranger fig, for example, would.

LegoFanTexas

No, it can't, but it can be recycled many times and when it can't, they can make road material out of it. They mix it in with the asphault.

LegoFanTexas

Btw, what base metal can't be recycled forever? I was not aware there was one...

CCC

If Lego wanted to be green, they should reduce box sizes. Not because of the cardboard, but because they could get more of them in a truck, so less fuel to transport them. And better for box collectors too!

Brickarmor

http://cache.lego.com/r/sc/sitecore/shell/controls/rich text editor/-/media/30e5da5c580a4141914659e26753c938.pdf

For Lego's stated positions and active practices
Yes, many items are marketed as ecofriendly when they are a toxic nightmare from start to finish. Light bulbs and batteries that require special disposal methods (and facilities that are next to impossible to find) are prime culprits.

Er, golly, when is 10188 gonna go...

Pitfall69

This thread is going to get split...and it should.

Pitfall69

http://cache.lego.com/r/sc/sitecore/shell/controls/rich text editor/-/media/30e5da5c580a4141914659e26753c938.pdf

For Lego's stated positions and active practices
Yes, many items are marketed as ecofriendly when they are a toxic nightmare from start to finish. Light bulbs and batteries that require special disposal methods (and facilities that are next to impossible to find) are prime culprits.

Er, golly, when is 10188 gonna go...

You may find this funny, but I store all my old batteries in an old Lego Brick Bucket.

doriansdad

Lego really needs to get on board with hemp. It can be used to make everything from the bricks to boxes, and this plant will grow almost anywhere on the planet. If it was good enough for Henry Ford in the 1940s for cars I am sure it is good enough for bricks. Too bad the paper manufacturers paid off congress to make it illegal in the USA, but Australia and Europe are leading the way. Seems a perfect fit for Lego.

pharmjod

For what it's worth, one of the biggest problems with hemp is that it is indistinguishable from marijuana by sight, so for law enforcement it would be a nightmare. That however is a totally different can of worms (ie war on drugs being a total waste of resources on numerous levels).

Back on topic. I think the comments about the typical peaks, plateaus and subsequent declines in the prices of sets beyond "X" number of years (apparently 8-10 seems to be a magic number) is fascinating. It really underscores to me that LEGO "investing" is cyclical like just about any other investment. Money can be made, but only if you keep your inventory moving (to an extent). Long term, inflation and other factors make most sets an average investment at best and a poor investment at worst. Which, honestly, isn't that bad of a deal. Compared to the stock market, LEGO is vastly more FUN (for most people anyway). I know I'll never get rich buying and selling LEGO, but it has allowed me to put together a couple hundred pounds of great sets for my kids at virtually no monetary cost to me. Couple that with being a self sustaining hobby for the time being, and I'm a happy camper.

I can't wait until my 8 month old is finally old enough for her first DUPLO set and then real LEGO set. Gonna be way more fun getting to show her the joys of the brick!

LegoFanTexas

For what it's worth, one of the biggest problems with hemp is that it is indistinguishable from marijuana by sight, so for law enforcement it would be a nightmare. That however is a totally different can of worms (ie war on drugs being a total waste of resources on numerous levels). !

Simple solution... Legalized marijuana, problem solved...

Pitfall69

From what I've read, you can't make transparent plastic from Hemp and 100% Hemp plastic products are really expensive to manufacture.

LegoFanTexas

Lego probably shouldn't mess with the ABS plastic they use, it isn't broken, don't fix it...

But the boxes and instructions could be made out of hemp.

graphite

FS 1000s of lego sets. No boxes or instructions. Sorry, I smoked them.

Pitfall69

For what it's worth, one of the biggest problems with hemp is that it is indistinguishable from marijuana by sight, so for law enforcement it would be a nightmare. That however is a totally different can of worms (ie war on drugs being a total waste of resources on numerous levels).

Back on topic. I think the comments about the typical peaks, plateaus and subsequent declines in the prices of sets beyond "X" number of years (apparently 8-10 seems to be a magic number) is fascinating. It really underscores to me that LEGO "investing" is cyclical like just about any other investment. Money can be made, but only if you keep your inventory moving (to an extent). Long term, inflation and other factors make most sets an average investment at best and a poor investment at worst. Which, honestly, isn't that bad of a deal. Compared to the stock market, LEGO is vastly more FUN (for most people anyway). I know I'll never get rich buying and selling LEGO, but it has allowed me to put together a couple hundred pounds of great sets for my kids at virtually no monetary cost to me. Couple that with being a self sustaining hobby for the time being, and I'm a happy camper.

I can't wait until my 8 month old is finally old enough for her first DUPLO set and then real LEGO set. Gonna be way more fun getting to show her the joys of the brick!

Yes, I don't think it is wise to hold onto a set longer than a few years. Once the prices stabilize, it is time to unload it. It still might go up in price, but if it isn't keeping up with inflation, you are just losing money and storage space.

dougts

FS 1000s of lego sets. No boxes or instructions. Sorry, I smoked them.

ROFL

Pitfall69

I just the video on the new Haunted house and I noticed 4 zombie heads in the front of the house. Another reason why this is a great set.

dougts

It still might go up in price, but if it isn't keeping up with inflation, you are just losing money and storage space.

not to mention, opportunity cost of the capital that could be re-deployed into other sets that appreciating at a more rapid rate.

Pitfall69

Yes, I would buy and sell Lego sets like buying and selling commodities like a day trader.

Pitfall69

I did that with my Market Street I saw that the prices stabilized and sold it and used that money to buy other sets.

UKtsumi

Is minecraft the first cuusoo set widely available? any thoughts on this as a good reseller? I bought one for my son who loves minecraft (its not here yet ) but I was wondering does anyone think this set has limited numbers ? /buyers??

Viere

It's remarkable that the following topic is still correct eventough most people rejected the information at the time.
www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/1008/offical-lego-discontinued-dates-direct-from-lego

Brewer51

Is minecraft the first cuusoo set widely available? any thoughts on this as a good reseller? I bought one for my son who loves minecraft (its not here yet ) but I was wondering does anyone think this set has limited numbers ? /buyers??

It's only the second Cuusoo set made, isn't it? After Hayabusa, which I know had quite limited release. I haven't seen anything about Minecraft's limitations on release, but I'd say it'll do quite well in the aftermarket. I think that the very nature of Cuusoo gives sets a good head start - because they're something different, they may be seen as very collectable. It's a unique idea. However, on the same side of this coin, because Lego have deviated from their traditional 'themes' and because they're user created, there may be less demand, but I'm pretty certain it'll be the former.

In addition to that, it's a set which really captures Minecraft. It's a very very good set. I love Minecraft and this set is pretty perfect to me, in the sense that it does not take anything away as a representation of the game. As Minecraft is massively popular at the minute, and will probably be a revered classic twenty years down the line, this will probably help the value of the set. If Lego had made a Space Invaders or Pacman set 20 odd years ago, I'm pretty sure it'd be selling for decent money right now.

Legofanscott

^^^ I didnt even know what minecraft was until Lego released that set xD

SpaceCake

From a figure point of view, you have some iconic and unique/exclusive figs from that unloved set "Home One Mon Calamari", those could seriously increase in value in the future.

The only unique minifig in that set is Ackbar and he was released in a magnet set before they started gluing them to the bracket.

I'm fairly confident in the accuracy of the above statement but I am very open to correction!

:D

It's remarkable that the following topic is still correct eventough most people rejected the information at the time.
bricksetforum.com/discussion/1008/offical-lego-discontinued-dates-direct-from-lego

Wow, that poor chap got (politely) slammed for his suggestions and it turns out he knew more than all of you guys! Tsk tsk!

Shame on you!

:P

Pitfall69

I thought Mon Mothma, Marine and Lando only came with that set.

monkeyhanger

Pitfall: me too - can't think of any other sets with that Lando and Mon Mothma. The SW Minifig book suggests it is true.

SpaceCake

Ok, did a bit of Google'ing and looks like you guys were right! Apologies. I did however have to track down the piece of information that led to my confusion. This is where I got the idea from but apparently I recalled the information incorrectly (I remembered it as reading something along the lines of "Ackbar is the only unique figure and..."):

Why did Home One do so poorly? I think it looks like a cracking set.

I believe it did poorly for the following reasons:
1) too much money(RRP) for the set siez (IMO, and I'm guessing others as well)
2) TRU (and Amazon too I think) constantly had these on sale so many people bought these at 70-80 dollars per.
3) Then at the end of the run LEGO had to HEAVILY discount these to sell and had them for 50 (or was it 55)USD dollars per, and A LOT of them (I went to a LEGO store the day after Black Friday and they still had about 12 (at least) left.
4) Ackbar was included in a magnet set (before they started gluing them) so the figure rarity went out the window so the set really was not sought after for a figure.

I should probably start checking up on my sources before making false statements. Looks like my memory is starting to fade!

;D

Brickarmor

This thread is going to get split...and it should.

If you look at the appx 5000 comments just right, you'll see the phrase "NO MODS ALLOWED". Crazy, man. Like trying to fit an octopus in a pillowcase.

prevere

Recently, I've been very happy and sad with Cloud City figs. Excitingly, I've located brown flowers; a left Boba arm; and 2/3 of Luke's legs.

But finding replacement parts are impossible. I just won't pay $90 on BL for a right Boba arm.

Must...keep...sorting...

mathew

Well... the fact that the Black Seas Barracuda actually has a 'complete' rigging setup is certainly much nicer... and more accurate. I realize that the detail on IF is much more intricate... but that makes the absence of cordage all the more glaring. Not that the Barracuda's was perfect, but the IF doesn't have anything in place to even suggest that the sales and spars could be manipulated in any fashion. As such, although it's a nicer model, the IF's design would leave little to no means of controlling the ship.

Sorry to go back off topic, but I had a "duh" moment last night concerning the lack of rigging on IF. Because IF is a modular style design, rigging would be a mess trying to get access to the lower decks. The designers I'm sure thought of doing proper rigging but then realized that more people would want to be able to access the cannons, kitchen, jail. A bucket style ship like the PoTC ones would make rigging more feasible.

LegoFanTexas

^ No worries... if the rigging is important to you, if you're a "ship" person, then I can appreciate that you notice it missing on the IF when you see it on a much older ship.

I'm not really a sailing ship person, so I didn't even notice it on either ship, there or not. I just looked at the overall picture and presentation, what would look the nicest on my fireplace mantle.

111ins

what to buy now...
10198 tantive 4 vs 8098 Clone turbo tank... both retired, I can get the 10198 for almost the lowest BL selling price or the CTT for about $30 over the cheapest BL price. Both are remakes, CTT has 1 exclusive fig (not incl the two clones) and the tantive has only one as well. Both are what I would consider to be 'big' sets, but the tantive would likely be a better display set.
Thoughts?

LegoFanTexas

CTT is playable, mostly... Still fragile, it doesn't survive an hour with my 6 year old son...

Tantive IV is not playable at all... Ok, the box says it is, but every time I so much as pick it up, it falls apart, the most fragile Lego set I've ever built. One of these days I'll put it on a stand and just leave it...

Or not...

If you would like to buy a used, complete copy of 10198 including instructions and box, I'd actually sell it...

For that matter, I'd also sell CTT, but I would have to find all the parts, my son has played with that one. :)

graphite

I think both look good on display but Tantive is definitely a put it on display and don't touch it. Every time I try to move it something falls off. CTT at least has the handle thing on top so it is really easy to move.

doriansdad

I just the video on the new Haunted house and I noticed 4 zombie heads in the front of the house. Another reason why this is a great set.

Yes this set will be a great source of heads to build a zombie army. Should see plenty of Walking Dead MOC's.

hoyatables

I put together my old Black Seas Barracuda over the weekend. Amazed at how well the set held up over the past 20 years. Only problems are some loose joint pieces and an odd stain on two of the sails. Rigging is in great shape.

My wife was impressed and actually okayed the idea of it being on a more permanent display. (The downstairs family room has a nautical theme.) Just wait till I crack open my "rainy day" Imperial Flagship :). But first, I think, time to see if I can track down all the pieces for my Caribbean Clipper.

Returning to topic -- kind of sad I jumped in too late to pick up the good deal on the Mon Cal Home One set. Would have paid $50ish for the parts and minifigs.

turtle1173

Returning to topic -- kind of sad I jumped in too late to pick up the good deal on the Mon Cal Home One set. Would have paid $50ish for the parts and minifigs.

I picked one up sometime last year at one of the TRU sales. I might have coupled it with a battle of endor set or something. It came out to like $47 or there abouts. Still haven't opened it yet. I thought my son would be on me for it but he really didn't show that much interest.

madforLEGO

From a figure point of view, you have some iconic and unique/exclusive figs from that unloved set "Home One Mon Calamari", those could seriously increase in value in the future.

IF LEGO does what they did with Cloud City and never make anything remotely similar nor do they re do the figures in it (specifically Ackbar) then it can rise.. Cloud city's were not that popular when out but the key difference was they were not discounting Cloud Cities (to the best of my knowledge anyway) to half their price to get rid of them... So while these will increase in value, Im guessing they will hang around at 100 dollars for a long time.

madforLEGO

I put together my old Black Seas Barracuda over the weekend. Amazed at how well the set held up over the past 20 years. Only problems are some loose joint pieces and an odd stain on two of the sails. Rigging is in great shape.

My wife was impressed and actually okayed the idea of it being on a more permanent display. (The downstairs family room has a nautical theme.) Just wait till I crack open my "rainy day" Imperial Flagship :). But first, I think, time to see if I can track down all the pieces for my Caribbean Clipper.

Returning to topic -- kind of sad I jumped in too late to pick up the good deal on the Mon Cal Home One set. Would have paid $50ish for the parts and minifigs.

The Old Pirate ships have charm to them, I have been lucky to own, at some point, all of the ships except Red Beards runner and that White hulled ship (forget what it was called) and The Skull Eye Schooner is just AMAZING (which I'm guessing is one of the reasons why it is very expensive) The only thing that stinks is building them and disassembling them, they are a pain ESPECIALLY to disassemble.

As for the Mon Calamari for 50.. if you look hard enough you could probably find one on eBay for about 50-60 still.

pharmjod

Cloud City was discounted at Tuesday Morning back in the day, for something like $50. No one really wanted it. I ordered one from SAH and sold it for a couple hundred several years later. There were no Tuesday Morning's around me at the time. Now there are, but aside from the Batman sets a few years ago, really never found much LEGO there.

Bandit

I recently sold a MISB 7255 for $170, for a whopping 750% profit over retail. This got me to thinking, what are the current highest % profit over retail price sets out there right now? The MF may sell for $2000, but that's only a measly 300% profit over retail. And I'm just talking retail price here, not what you might have actually paid for it on sale or whatnot.

I know Cloud City must be a contender, although it fluctuates a lot, anywhere between 700%-900%. Cafe Corner is up there. Set 4767 may very well be #1?

So, what are the others? I'd rather not count smaller sets, say under $10, as they're likely to skew the results, but we can keep track of those if there are any extraordinary examples. Maybe even group the contenders in retail price ranges. < $15, $15 - $49, $50 - $99, $100 - $149, etc..., and maybe pre 1995 and post 1995.

I'm actually most interested in knowing the sets in the $20-$70 price range, as we all already know the biggies.