Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

dougts

Long-term, I think LOTR carries the same values you're seeing now from the Indiana Jones line.

this has been my thinking as well. LotR has timeless appeal, so there will be investment value there a couple of years past it's EOL dates. one and done kid-friendly themes like AC, PQ, MF have much less investment appeal in my mind. the primary audience is kids - once a theme is gone, the kids will just move on to the next hot item and quickly forget or not care about the past theme anymore. (obviously there are always exceptions to this).

cloaked7

^ The MW I meant was the WizKids one. There were several MechWarrior variations. I think the first was Battle Tech? There was a PC and Xbox game which had a tie in to the WizKids MW tabletop game. It came with a mini, which in its prime sold for $65, so it sold on eBay for more than the game itself. WizKids (2005) had several other tabletop games (Mage Knight, HeroClix). The most popular was HeroClix. WizKids was bought out by Topps in 2008 and they closed WizKids. They quit coming out with MW sets, but they may have new HeroClix sets. Interestingly, HC is based on comics, just like the LEGO Avenger sets. So, there's our LEGO tie in! :-)

prevere

Was MechWarrior like a D & D thing? I don't remember that from yesteryear.

cloaked7

Not really. Sorry. D&D is role playing isn't it? And, involved cards? Not surprised if you never heard of it. I don't think it had a huge following, and unless you lived somewhere where they had tourneys or had someone to play the game with you probably wouldn't bother with playing. It was a niche market.

WK had a pretty good formula and a had a good run of it. I see that HeroClix is still out there. MK was a table top game that involved miniatures that had clickable bases. As a mini took damage you would click the number of wounds it took. So, there was nothing to keep track of on paper or such. Pretty neat. Also, the rules were relatively simple, you played on a 3x3 foot mat, and each game took about 1 hour to play, so you could have tournaments in one afternoon. Spend many a Saturday morning in a MW tourney. :-)

If I were to compare it to another game it would be Warhammer 40K. Except in 40K you have to paint your figures (MW figs were pre-painted) and 40K has books of rules. MW rules were in a 10 page booklet.

black_towr

I went to my Lego store today to buy another Sopwith Camel and i got to talking with the Manager and i was told that FB will definitely be gone by Christmas or sooner. Also was told that GE will be around until at least summer 2013.
I ended up picking up a FB in addition to the Sopwith.

LegobrandonCP

^ He persuaded you into buying a FB. ;) LOL jk. But thanks for the info.

momof2boys99

We went to Chicago today and they did have the Motorized Excavator in stock and not on sale. My local store is Orland Park which is much smaller. They were on sale in April at that store and they have been gone since then. Chicago is a huge store, so I do not know the exact details on it's retirement. I did not ask at the Chicago store as I am not too familiar with the staff there. So, take my info from yesterday for what its worth. We had so much fun at the Chicago store. What a great pick a brick wall!!! We loaded up on parts.

Skyward72

Just happened to notice that Diagon Alley is out of stock till the end of the month at [email protected] and it has seemed to spark Ebay sales to about $180.00. It would seem to be a good indicator for this set once its gone.

Farmer_John

Lego releases many sets which are no-brainers for good performance in the aftermarket (Death Star, Imperial Flagship, Emerald Night, Sopwith Camel, etc.). As an AFOL, I don't see the problem purchasing these sets after they are just released...especially if I can get a decent deal on them. For example, the Sopwith Camel is a newly released set that is a classic design and a smart bet for the aftermarket. The Imperial Shuttle is another example.

That said, the LotR sets are questionable to me for the aftermarket AND are overpriced to boot. I believe this series will have many sales through many venues before it's EOL'd, and I plan to hold off on purchasing until there are significant sales (perhaps Christmas for the first wave). It reminds me of Toy Story and Cars for some reason. It appears that even PotC has more potential in the aftermarket than LotR at this point. JMO.

CCC

^ For some PotC I think that is true. Even if you don't like it / have never seen it (I confess here the latter is me) you can dump the figures and have a beautiful ship to fill with real pirates.

Pitfall69

I bought 2 Black Pearls when they were $70 on Amazon. When TrU had their last BOGO sale I bought 2 QAV's because they were only $5 over normal Lego prices. Ships always do well in the after market...some better than others of course.

prevere

Just happened to notice that Diagon Alley is out of stock till the end of the month at [email protected] and it has seemed to spark Ebay sales to about $180.00. It would seem to be a good indicator for this set once its gone.

DA is either highly popular or produced in low quantities. It flirts with being out of stock frequently. My guess is that it will be around through the end of 2013.

madforLEGO

Not really. Sorry. D&D is role playing isn't it? And, involved cards? Not surprised if you never heard of it. I don't think it had a huge following, and unless you lived somewhere where they had tourneys or had someone to play the game with you probably wouldn't bother with playing. It was a niche market.

WK had a pretty good formula and a had a good run of it. I see that HeroClix is still out there. MK was a table top game that involved miniatures that had clickable bases. As a mini took damage you would click the number of wounds it took. So, there was nothing to keep track of on paper or such. Pretty neat. Also, the rules were relatively simple, you played on a 3x3 foot mat, and each game took about 1 hour to play, so you could have tournaments in one afternoon. Spend many a Saturday morning in a MW tourney. :-)

If I were to compare it to another game it would be Warhammer 40K. Except in 40K you have to paint your figures (MW figs were pre-painted) and 40K has books of rules. MW rules were in a 10 page booklet.

Mechwarrior is from Wizkids and came from the old Battletech RPG. I believe that eventually though the guy that ran FASA ended the company and sold the Battletech/Mechwarrior rights to his son. His son owned Wizkids, they already had a Marvel and DC line and Mechwarrior was born.
Iron Wind games though still makes the old Battletech metal figs I believe for the 'paper and dice' crowd and I think there is an online game coming out for Battletech (another one is being attempted anyway).

madforLEGO

Just happened to notice that Diagon Alley is out of stock till the end of the month at [email protected] and it has seemed to spark Ebay sales to about $180.00. It would seem to be a good indicator for this set once its gone.

DA is either highly popular or produced in low quantities. It flirts with being out of stock frequently. My guess is that it will be around through the end of 2013.

I think most sets usually end at the end of year or later on in the year.
It is rare for a set to go away before then, but it can happen

Pitfall69

Speaking of Monster fighters. Have you seen the 10228 Haunted House? This is one set I will be buying multiple copies of. This set is a gift that keeps on giving. Great assortment of minifigures and great detail. You can choose to display it at Halloween like some people have done with the Winter Village sets. You can modify it and make it a non haunted house and put it in a neighborhood display. If you choose, you could make it a modular house and add it to your modular city display (although I really don't think it fits). That is just for us adults. There are so many play features that make it a great set for kids especially girls because it resembles an typical dollhouse. I expect this set to do very well in the secondary market.

momof2boys99

^ I fully agree. It looks really great!!

Legofanscott

^ im defo buying that thing! that is amazing!

But seriously Lego, when the hell are you releasing MF in the uk?!?!?!?!

sidersdd

10212 Imperial Shuttle is $200 (about 23% off) at Target.com. Amazon will probably follow soon.

Pitfall69

Fantastic. I'll have to pick up another one or two.

dougts

dang. with red card, it's 190, or 27% off...

argh! do i buy more?

dougts

ok, redcard plus AAA discount takes it to 180.49 (no tax for me), so that's a 30.5% discount.

yes, bought 2 more...

black_towr

The Haunted House is amazing. Looking forward to building that one.

Need an IS so may go ahead and pick up one or a couple.

doriansdad

Wow...the Haunted House is truly amazing....sand green as well which should bode well for those piecing together Green Grocer....the whole Monster Fighters theme is so well done I am speechless....I hope they put as much effort into future non-licensed themes.

Legofanscott

Wow...the Haunted House is truly amazing....sand green as well which should bode well for those piecing together Green Grocer....the whole Monster Fighters theme is so well done I am speechless....I hope they put as much effort into future non-licensed themes.

Same here, i just wish i knew when the whole MF and LOTR sets are coming to UK shores dammit! :(

Its certainly going to be a classic unlicensed theme thats for sure :)

Pitfall69

@doubts No tax? Where do you live?

BoiseState

Hey, you UK guys get CMF's way before we do. But I am enjoying our LOTR and MF stuff!

Pitfall69

...and our newspapers don't give away free Legos either. If we don't be careful this thread will be split into another topic.

hoyatables

10212 Imperial Shuttle is $200 (about 23% off) at Target.com. Amazon will probably follow soon.

Such a good deal. Already have one. Struggling with whether I want to make a foray into true reselling and pick another up. Certainly should be able to see it for more.

dougts

@doubts No tax? Where do you live?

Oregon

gmpirate

IS at Target didn't last long :(

Never knew the Haunted House was part of Monsters. Very Cool.

BoiseState

Some people were saying the HH wasn't part of the MF series, but it looks like it is.

Legofanscott

Hmmm, I've been wondering if I should buy the imperial shuttle or not, here in the UK we can only get sets like that from Lego shops and [email protected], would love to see it in the flesh, Lego seriously need to open a shop up here in the north east :)

thornie

Haunted House might be my favorite set ever. Ever. Simply amazing.

Pitfall69

Haunted House might be my favorite set ever. Ever. Simply amazing.

Exactly.

Brewer51

I can see HH doing very well in the aftermarket. It's the first set I've ever seen that I've instantly thought I should get two of, so I have one to sell on.

Pitfall69

I'm going to get several. In addition to the reasons I mentioned before, it looks like a great parts sets especially because of the sand green. The Zombie chef is another reason why people would "part out" the set.

Brewer51

Thinking it would be good for those who are piecing together Green Grocer.

LegoFanTexas

I can see HH doing very well in the aftermarket. It's the first set I've ever seen that I've instantly thought I should get two of, so I have one to sell on.

Does anyone else think the fact that this is our first thought, before it even is released, might be an issue? :)

Legofanscott

I can see HH doing very well in the aftermarket. It's the first set I've ever seen that I've instantly thought I should get two of, so I have one to sell on.

Does anyone else think the fact that this is our first thought, before it even is released, might be an issue? :)

LOL

Yep it amazes me, did anyone think this when 10179 was released? and that was a 5000 part set :P

If you ask me i think there will be a point in time when all this secondary market value thing will wear off eventually once stuff that shouldve gone up doesnt due to there being soooo many still left.

LegoFanTexas

I wasn't around when 10179 came out, or when it retired, so I really don't know...

However, nothing lasts forever, if there are huge profits to be made buying something at retail prices, waiting 1 year, then doubling your money, lots of money will chase those returns, thus killing them in the long run.

What is to stop Lego from reissuing this new Haunted House every year for the next 4 years? Each year it "goes away", people will think that is for good and stockpile them, sooner or later, a lot of them will be stockpiled. I think this has already happened with FB and MMV.

Brewer51

There will always be an aftermarket. There will always be those Cloud City sets that got released, people didn't buy many due to pricing/quality of the set, then there will be a sudden realisation that it was a great set, or had great minifigs (or even a great part) and then it will be in high demand.

What I do think the UCS MF has done has alerted people to stockpiling - I mean this whole thread is dedicated to speculation, and so people have looked at the MF and thought 'well that's a great set, I'm going to get a few of those and let them appreciate for a few years'. However, if everyone did that, surely the growth of value would be very slow?

I'm new to this and could be completely wrong, but that's the way I see it. And of course, there will always be those rare figures or sets that are deliberately meant to be limited.

Legofanscott

I wasn't around when 10179 came out, or when it retired, so I really don't know...

However, nothing lasts forever, if there are huge profits to be made buying something at retail prices, waiting 1 year, then doubling your money, lots of money will chase those returns, thus killing them in the long run.

What is to stop Lego from reissuing this new Haunted House every year for the next 4 years? Each year it "goes away", people will think that is for good and stockpile them, sooner or later, a lot of them will be stockpiled. I think this has already happened with FB and MMV.

Also dont forget 10188 ;)

Id like to know just how many people out there are doing the same thing as people on the forum?

As people here are just a blip in Legos worldwide sales

One theory that could save sets from going down in value for good could be

If your in it for the long run you'll tend to keep your sets longer than those who want a quick profit(sellers and investors) who have no interest whatsoever in Lego and are there for purely profit making(the stockpilers, hoarders, whatever you want to call them:p), they will find that these sets just arn't increasing in value due to there being far too many and just isnt worth the hassle of sitting on them for any longer and will sell all of their death stars, imperial shuttles etc etc this will be the time when sets struggle to rise in value due to "flooding" of the market( could last as long as 2-3 years, who knows?), once most of these short term investors have been cleaned out of their stock the majority of the remaining sealed sets will be sold by the casual Lego collectors who maybe just decided to buy the extra one to sell on, which if the set is still in high demand at that point in time in theory the price should start rising as by this time the supply should start becoming exhausted, only time will predict what happens then though

I was still a kid when 10179 was released unfortunately so even if i had wanted it i never would have gotten it, same goes for 10030.

The question we all need answering is, in 5-10 years time or even maybe 2 or 3, will there be another huge surge of AFOL or adults who are still in their dark ages at the present time who will miss out on sets like the HH?

CCC

The question we all need answering is, in 5-10 years time or even maybe 2 or 3, will there be another huge surge of AFOL or adults who are still in their dark ages at the present time who will miss out on sets like the HH?

Yes, there will. The HH will still be out in 2 years time, but there will be AFOL who miss out on it that will want it once EOL'ed. Whether that number is greater or less than the number stockpiled is anyone's guess.

Pacific493

a

I can see HH doing very well in the aftermarket. It's the first set I've ever seen that I've instantly thought I should get two of, so I have one to sell on.

Does anyone else think the fact that this is our first thought, before it even is released, might be an issue? :)

LOL

Yep it amazes me, did anyone think this when 10179 was released? and that was a 5000 part set :P

If you ask me i think there will be a point in time when all this secondary market value thing will wear off eventually once stuff that shouldve gone up doesnt due to there being soooo many still left.

Yep, that's exactly what I thought when I placed an order for 2 copies of 10179 when it was first released. I had no doubt that it would be a great set on the second-hand market...I just didn't realize how great it would do.

Brewer51

The question we all need answering is, in 5-10 years time or even maybe 2 or 3, will there be another huge surge of AFOL or adults who are still in their dark ages at the present time who will miss out on sets like the HH?

Yes, there will. The HH will still be out in 2 years time, but there will be AFOL who miss out on it that will want it once EOL'ed. Whether that number is greater or less than the number stockpiled is anyone's guess.

That's the game you play as an investor.

Pitfall69

There will be people that will always "miss out" on buying Lego sets. Either because they are in their "Dark Ages" or they simply don't have the money to spend on a $179.99 set at the time. Even if everyone of us (in this forum) buys multiple copies of a set for resale, it will only put a small dent in Legos inventory. Not everyone has the money or storage to sit on multiple sets for several years. There will be people that will pay double or triple of the original retail value if they really want the set. I've seen it in my own sales. Why anyone would pay $1,000 for my Market Street is beyond me, but they did and I'm not complaining.

Buying at full retail and hoping for a big profit is a gamble, but it obviously does happen. I was fortunate to buy MF on sale. I believe I got it at Buy.com during Christmas for $345 (sale plus $5 coupon).

pharmjod

Heck, I remember they (10179) could be had for $250ish with various deals (target had it on sale and you could still do microsoft's cash back reward thing). I had been into LEGO buying selling and collecting for several years at that point and I honestly looked at it and thought, it is too huge and too expensive to ever be a be seller down the road... so I passed. DOH! At that point, there were no sets that I had seen really go for more than what it was going for RRP so I couldn't fathom the heights it has climbed. I like to keep some of the sets if they really interest me, but there comes a point where it is crazy to keep a set if you can truly get that kind of money out of it. I guess I'm just not that big of a "collector" ultimately. My rational side kicks in and says that is A LOT of money. Do you really like it that much? (which is why I sold my one and only Cafe Corner even though I thought I would keep it).

Legofanscott

Heck, I remember they (10179) could be had for $250ish with various deals (target had it on sale and you could still do microsoft's cash back reward thing). I had been into LEGO buying selling and collecting for several years at that point and I honestly looked at it and thought, it is too huge and too expensive to ever be a be seller down the road... so I passed. DOH! At that point, there were no sets that I had seen really go for more than what it was going for RRP so I couldn't fathom the heights it has climbed. I like to keep some of the sets if they really interest me, but there comes a point where it is crazy to keep a set if you can truly get that kind of money out of it. I guess I'm just not that big of a "collector" ultimately. My rational side kicks in and says that is A LOT of money. Do you really like it that much? (which is why I sold my one and only Cafe Corner even though I thought I would keep it).

10179 is truly an amazing set that i doubt we will ever see beaten, but personally the only ever time buying one would cross my mind would be if i won the lottery :D

Its amazing but is it really 4 figures worth of amazing?

As for cafe corner, that is just a joke:D, it amazes me that people would ever think of paying that much for it, the world has gone mad, thats for sure!

Pitfall69

Well...I think people are crazy for paying millions of dollars for art that looks like my 2 yr old can paint. If there are people willing to do that then paying $1,000 or even $2,000 for a Lego set seems reasonable in comparison.

Legofanscott

Well...I think people are crazy for paying millions of dollars for art that looks like my 2 yr old can paint. If there are people willing to do that then paying $1,000 or even $2,000 for a Lego set seems reasonable in comparison.

I can certainly understand the price of 10179 as that thing looks amazing even in photographs, i can only imagine how epic it must look in person :)

Cafe corner not so much:(