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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    10223 was released on January 1. As an exclusive/direct set, it will be on the shelf at least until Black Friday 2013, if not longer.

    Castle fans clamoring for more 10xxx sets in the future aren't going to have much of a leg to stand on if the apparently anemic sales on this item don't pick up.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    10223 was released on January 1. As an exclusive/direct set, it will be on the shelf at least until Black Friday 2013, if not longer.

    Castle fans clamoring for more 10xxx sets in the future aren't going to have much of a leg to stand on if the apparently anemic sales on this item don't pick up.
    The problem with Joust is that it does not have a supporting theme... This is why Diagon Alley makes no sense without the rest of Harry Potter to support it, few sets stand alone, those two (Joust and DA) make little sense without the rest of the attached theme.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ yep, have to agree with that. Which is why them releasing Joust is so odd - they KNEW they were not going to do Castle/Kingdoms in 2012, yet they put Joust out there anyway. The only other explanation is that they had Joust ramped up and ready to launch, and had planned on doing more Kingdoms this year, then LotR kind of fell in their lap late in the game, so they cancelled Kingdoms, but didn't want to pull Joust (since it was coming from a different design group anyway).
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Received my 10188 today, the box artwork looks so nice i think i might get another LOL xD

    To everyone buying sets for investment, my advice is just go with your gut instinct and don't let anybody else tell you what will and won't be a good investment, i know thats what i do :)

    Only time will tell what is going to happen
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,012
    Legofanscott: buy another for investment and display the one you have - it's a beaut! Mine is now well stocked with extra figures.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited June 2012
    10223 was released on January 1. As an exclusive/direct set, it will be on the shelf at least until Black Friday 2013, if not longer.

    Castle fans clamoring for more 10xxx sets in the future aren't going to have much of a leg to stand on if the apparently anemic sales on this item don't pick up.
    The problem with Joust is that it does not have a supporting theme... This is why Diagon Alley makes no sense without the rest of Harry Potter to support it, few sets stand alone, those two (Joust and DA) make little sense without the rest of the attached theme.
    Imperial Flagship didn't have a supporting theme either and that hasn't hurt its value. But I also think IF has done well because it is a ship and that it will probably be the last "big" one released for a long time. OTOH for Castle collectors I think that Joust will be a set that once the theme is re-introduced (and it will in some form) it will raise in value. That and it was designed to be complimentary to MMV.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Ships seem to do well on their own, you can just put IF on a shelf and display it all by itself...

    Joust is good, but not quite "put it on a shelf and just display it" good...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Imperial Flagship didn't have a supporting theme either and that hasn't hurt its value. But I also think IF has done well because it is a ship and that it will probably be the last "big" one released for a long time. OTOH for Castle collectors I think that Joust will be a set that once the theme is re-introduced (and it will in some form) it will raise in value. That and it was designed to be complimentary to MMV.
    Actually, the IF did have a supporting theme for the first year after it was released. Specifically...6299, 8396, 8397, 6239,6240, 852747, 6241, 6242, 6243, and 6253. In fact the IF only came with four cannons, and it made sense to purchase 6239 to provide additional cannons and soldiers to the IF. I believe the IF has done well because it was well done. I built it with my kids at Christmas and it was a fantastic build. It is a classic lego set that will only go up in value.

    But I do understand your point...
  • littletokilittletoki Member Posts: 519
    ^ Challenge accepted!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Challenge accepted!
    ? Was that to me or @Farmer_John ?
  • ThisIsMyCupThisIsMyCup Member Posts: 156
    what about 8095?? its not on [email protected] anymore and my local TRU,Target and Walmarts done carry it either. im sure the grevious fig alone is worth something.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ yes, roughly $25.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited June 2012
    ^^Yes 8095 should be essentially EOL now, with remaining stock at retailers. But the same exact Grievous minifig is coming back with the Malevolence, so beyond its current $25 value, the fig won't be the cost driver of the set post-EOL for a while.
  • ThisIsMyCupThisIsMyCup Member Posts: 156
    isnt the malevolence set over $100, which may make the fig go up even more since you would have to pay more to obtain a set with it in it.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^Good point, I'm sure that will have an impact in terms of how many Grievous figs will be freely floating around the market this time.

    Simply speculation, but with twice as many figs in the Malevolence set versus Grievous SF, the folks doing the parting of sets might have a hand in the end. The high amount of dark blue combined with good minifigs, make this an attractive one for this purpose in comparison to the previous set.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,151
    What do you think?

    UCS: Super Star Destroyer
    I dunno about you but that looks like an awfully weird looking coffee table book.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I think the heavy breathing coming from the bridge would keep me up at night...but that's just me.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Grievous sells for 25 bucks?? Its an ugly minifig, but I guess he's not very easy to replicate.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^ yep, have to agree with that. Which is why them releasing Joust is so odd - they KNEW they were not going to do Castle/Kingdoms in 2012, yet they put Joust out there anyway. The only other explanation is that they had Joust ramped up and ready to launch, and had planned on doing more Kingdoms this year, then LotR kind of fell in their lap late in the game, so they cancelled Kingdoms, but didn't want to pull Joust (since it was coming from a different design group anyway).
    They also released the Kingdoms Chess set. DA would look good in a medieval display with a few modifications and without the bank. I think it is great set.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I regret not buying IF. It just didn't fit into my finances while it was available.
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    @Pitfall69 - I regret not being out of my dark ages when it was available. I went ahead and picked it up anyway earlier this year and do not regret the higher price I paid. The set is just amazing and looks impressive on display. I don't think any previous ship can compare.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    IF can still be had new for less than $300. That is more than double what it sold for when it went EOL, but that doesn't matter if you didn't or couldn't buy it then...

    For $290, you get one of the best, if not the best ship, Lego has ever made...
  • effalconeffalcon Member Posts: 71
    I will buy an IF, just snapping up other currently available sets before i do :P
  • SpaceCakeSpaceCake Member Posts: 291
    Black Pearl or Queen Annes Revenge?

    QAR is a nicer looking ship, but the Pearl is the iconic ship of the franchise. I'm feeling more tempted by QAR personally.. Need to think faaaaast!! All this talk of ships has got me twitchy.
  • BenxSmithBenxSmith Member Posts: 9
    edited June 2012
    Useally i'm just reading here but i decided to share a little information:
    Today i called my Lego supplier (i have a toy store) and they stated that 10197 and 10211 are no longer available for purchase, they said they will not be getting it either.
    These guys sold me over 20 sets of 10197 and 10211 so they are speaking the truth i assume.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    Black Pearl or Queen Annes Revenge?
    Why not buy both, especially if you can get them at a discount? It's all but guaranteed they will go up in value when they EOL, so you probably have very little to lose.
  • DeadareusDeadareus Member Posts: 264
    edited June 2012
    here is a pic of the modded SSD i was talking about using 2x1 hinges, why Lego didn't make 10221 like this to begin with is beyond me :s

    image
    That's it, that is exactly what Lego should have done...
    I don't get what the difference is here. Pardon my ignorance.

  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Useally i'm just reading here but i decided to share a little information:
    Today i called my Lego supplier (i have a toy store) and they stated that 10197 and 10211 are no longer available for purchase, they said they will not be getting it either.
    These guys sold me over 20 sets of 10197 and 10211 so they are speaking the truth i assume.
    I don't know about 10211 but yesterday at my local Lego store I asked about 10197 and they said it was going away soon and would not be available come Christmas. I am assuming it will make way for the Haunted Mansion come fall.

    On another note they also said 5 new DC superhero sets would be released before too long.

  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,270
    @Deadareus The bottom in the set as is comes is just the bottom of plates. It's hard to see clearly in this photo but you can get the idea. Someone else might have a better picture. But basically the mod to it was to put plates with stud side facing down to give it a better look and shape.

    image
  • JT32JT32 BasingstokeMember Posts: 124
    I'd be very surprised if GE goes at the same time as FB but then I won't complain because I imagine most people who store sets will have focused on FB meaning GE might be more valuable %-wise in the aftermarket.

    Has anyone any thoughts on how long 10219 will be around? Surely it can only go the same way as the Emerald Night beore it?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^AWESOME!!!
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    QAR is a more fun build than the BP in my opinion.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    @Pitfall69 - I regret not being out of my dark ages when it was available. I went ahead and picked it up anyway earlier this year and do not regret the higher price I paid. The set is just amazing and looks impressive on display. I don't think any previous ship can compare.

    I agree the ship is impressive. I just can't see myself pay in $350-400for the set now. I have almost every pirate ship Lego has made. I just never pulled the trigger.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    IF can still be had new for less than $300. That is more than double what it sold for when it went EOL, but that doesn't matter if you didn't or couldn't buy it then...

    For $290, you get one of the best, if not the best ship, Lego has ever made...
    If you have one for sale for $290...maybe I will buy it from you.

  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,769
    edited June 2012

    Has anyone any thoughts on how long 10219 will be around? Surely it can only go the same way as the Emerald Night beore it?
    It's only been out a couple of months, so I expect it to be available for a while. And I doubt it will go up as fast as Emerald Night, since people are now more used to hoarding sets for resale. Same is true of any set released now.

  • JT32JT32 BasingstokeMember Posts: 124
    ^ It's been around for over a year now but assumed it was longer so agree it's unlikely to be going anywhere just yet.

    I was surprised that Emerald Night went up in value so quick, it's only been EOL for 6 months and guessed there would be plenty for sale in the aftermarket, can't complain though.

    I've got a little bit of spare money and can't decide what will be the best investment to sell around Christmas time, i'm thinking 10212 and 4184 could be decent investments?
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    I'm seeing some used IF prices dip below $200 on ebay. It's a beautiful ship but I'm sure over time people will sell it to make room for something else.



  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,769
    ^^ You're right. I was sure mine hadn't been sitting around for that amount of time unbuilt, but it has. How time flies ...
  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    Useally i'm just reading here but i decided to share a little information:
    Today i called my Lego supplier (i have a toy store) and they stated that 10197 and 10211 are no longer available for purchase, they said they will not be getting it either.
    These guys sold me over 20 sets of 10197 and 10211 so they are speaking the truth i assume.
    Very interesting. I thought GE will be around longer than FB.

    BTW, I see FB everywhere lately. Amazon, [email protected], Toysrus, etc. Doesn't look like it's going away that soon.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Even if FB is "going away", it will be in stock for awhile everywhere... Lego seems to have stuffed the channel with supply, so it will last until the end of the year at least, now I am thinking it may go to next year.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Today i called my Lego supplier (i have a toy store) and they stated that 10197 and 10211 are no longer available for purchase, they said they will not be getting it either.
    These guys sold me over 20 sets of 10197 and 10211 so they are speaking the truth i assume.
    I appreciate your comment, but will believe it when I see it. We've been hearing EOL news on 10197 for almost a year now (including secondhand comments from TLG store managers). Yes...it seems like it's due to be EOL'd, but we'll see. We are definitely in the timeframe where it wouldn't be a surprise though...

    As for 10211, I would be shocked if it's EOL'd at this point. I'm guessing late 2013 at the absolute earliest.

    Speculating on EOL'd sets is the purpose of this thread though... ;-)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I love FB. I want to buy more copies. Take out the bell tower and the front garage door and you can convert it to anything you'd like. My cousin is a historical restoration architect and he says NYC is the only city that allows those water barrels on top of the buildings. I dont know if that is correct or not.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Functioning water towers are required by law in NYC buildings over a certain height. They are often enclosed in modern buildings so you don't notice them. They are necessary because of water pressure issues in Manhattan. Without water towers you would have difficulty getting water pressure on upper floors.

    So, no, they will never go away in NYC.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,151
    IF can still be had new for less than $300. That is more than double what it sold for when it went EOL, but that doesn't matter if you didn't or couldn't buy it then...

    For $290, you get one of the best, if not the best ship, Lego has ever made...
    That is not exactly true.. Retail for the IF was 180.. it was on sale for 143 I think, then popped back on LEGOs site for 180 briefly then was gone for good.
    So really it is still a decent price if you want one as I'm guessing those will rise in price.
    Especially since I believe LEGO was saying something about Pirate line coming back eventually (and I do not think they were speaking of PoTC line)

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,151
    Useally i'm just reading here but i decided to share a little information:
    Today i called my Lego supplier (i have a toy store) and they stated that 10197 and 10211 are no longer available for purchase, they said they will not be getting it either.
    These guys sold me over 20 sets of 10197 and 10211 so they are speaking the truth i assume.
    Very interesting. I thought GE will be around longer than FB.

    BTW, I see FB everywhere lately. Amazon, [email protected], Toysrus, etc. Doesn't look like it's going away that soon.
    Also just because a supplier says that those sets are no longer available for purchase does not mean a lot to be honest... Most retailers cannot sell 'Exclusives' anyway.(aside from big retailers like Amazon, TRU, Target, Walmart, etc) I know of one toy store that could not get any of the '10XXX' sets due to LEGOs' policies. It is possible that LEGO is clamping down on the outlets they are allowing to have these sets, or found out the supplier was getting these when they were not supposed to. Is that supplier selling any other of the '10XXX' sets now, or was it these two only? Or can you still get the new sets like town hall?
    I would say the major retailers are the best gauge, when they run out of a set and do not replenish for months and months (and it was available for a long time) it usually is a signal they are going away.

    But Even still.
    10197 I think has got to be near EOL due to age, most outlets that had them no longer do, and it is missing from the catalog. One of these things occurring may not mean a lot but all of these things occurring I think is pointing to it being done...
    Id be very surprised at the GE is gone so soon, especially since FB has been around for as long as it has.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ what's in the catalog means nothing. Items come and go there.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    That is not exactly true.. Retail for the IF was 180.. it was on sale for 143 I think, then popped back on LEGOs site for 180 briefly then was gone for good.
    It was better than that, $131 including sales tax on Black Friday, 25% off, plus the 10% off, plus sales tax... and I'm not even counting VIP points. :)
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited June 2012
    ^I got two IF's the day after Christmas (maybe it was New Year's, can't remember) for around $125+tax each from the Lego store. I had a third one I bought from Amazon for $150. I since sold all three for around $290-$300 each, excluding BL and ebay fees.

    I only have my built set remaining. But I'd sell that too if by chance the price were ever to get up to $500 or so.
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