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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,435
    Why buy from eBay for $120 when they are still @ Amazon for $90?
    I think because a LOT of people do not realize they are at Amazon for 90 and free shipping and no tax... Not to mention people believe sellers on eBay when they say it is SOLD OUT in stores (even though it is COMPLETE false at least at this moment.

    Quite Frankly I am very stunned they are still there at this point.. debating whether or not to get a couple more... just not sure though.
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    Why buy from eBay for $120 when they are still @ Amazon for $90?
    I don't know, but there are people buying them at that price.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    EN @ Amazon is going at a reasonable clip, not as fast as DS, which surprises me... DS is not yet sold out at [email protected] and EM is, while EM is also on sale @ Amazon, while DS is not...

    Sheesh, is that enough short hand for you? :)
  • pcironepcirone Long Island, NYMember Posts: 346
    Quite Frankly I am very stunned they are still there at this point.. debating whether or not to get a couple more... just not sure though.
    So buy some and then you have 90 days to decide if you made a good decision or not..why take a chance on regretting not buying?
  • EricEric Queensland, AustraliaMember Posts: 376
    ^^ It's the price. $400 is a lot different to $90. And a train has a much wider audience compared to the older Star Wars market.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    30 days with Amazon, which is what I think the poster you're replying to was referring to.

    Even if it was the Lego store, you don't want to go abusing the return policy. My local store manager has made it clear to me that I can return anything, within reason. But if I come in and buy 20 of a set and clear her shelf, then come back 89 days later and want to return it all, she reserves the right to say no.

    And I think that is fair. :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @Eric - yes, but my point is that the Death Star is selling FASTER than the Emerald Night, even at the higher price point.

    The Death Star broke 1,000 on Sunday, it is now Sunday a week later and it is down to 171 left. EN broke 1,000 during the week and still hasn't broken 800.

    I would have expected EN to go quickly once they dropped below 1,000, but they haven't.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    On a side note...

    The Death Star is below 200 units at Amazon now, if anyone has been waiting to get one, now is the time.
    Almost had a heart attack...I misinterpreted what you said and thought the death star was for sale below $200. I have one and would love to have another, but $400 is too rich for my blood. If they go >25% off, I will pull the trigger then. Otherwise, I don't really need one that badly.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Ha! Sorry about that, I meant they had less than 200 of them for sale, not the price!

    If the price was under $200, I would have bought them all already... :)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I never knew I could go to a product in Amazon so fast. Almost destroyed my mouse in the process...

    ;-)
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    I think with the Death Star it's selling a ton of units because it's a set that appeals to both collectors AND kids who want to play with it. So I think a lot of people are buying it as a Christmas gift and a lot of people are also buying it as a future investment. As soon as Amazon is out, with LEGO not expecting to ship backorders until it's too late for Christmas, even if this set isn't gone for good, I expect there to be at least a small spike in price leading into Christmas. That's just my thoughts, though.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,878
    A lot of people never to think of Amazon for Lego.

  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    A lot of people never to think of Amazon for Lego.

    I never did until I found Brickset :-)

  • drdavewatforddrdavewatford Hertfordshire, UKAdministrator Posts: 6,315
    edited December 2011
    It's of note that Emerald Night is now "Call for product availability" at [email protected] in the UK, which either means that they're down to their last few sets and awaiting more stock, or else that it's on the way out....

    I will shed a tear if it's the latter - Emerald Night was responsible for getting me back into LEGO trains after a very long hiatus, and it's a beautiful set, perhaps one of the most beautiful ever.
  • bluemoosebluemoose Member Posts: 1,716
    edited December 2011
    ^ They had three left in LSMK on Friday, and the staff said they hadn't seen any more on the delivery list for the next couple of weeks ... I only bought one, (and was there until the store closed) so there were 2 left on Saturday morning if anyone wants to follow that up ...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    DS on Amazon is down to 125 units left... Maybe one more day?
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @LegoFanTexas are we taking a collection of the $50,000 needed for those last 125 sets? :)
  • drdavewatforddrdavewatford Hertfordshire, UKAdministrator Posts: 6,315
    ^ They had three left in LSMK on Friday, and the staff said they hadn't seen any more on the delivery list for the next couple of weeks ... I only bought one, (and was there until the store closed) so there were 2 left on Saturday morning if anyone wants to follow that up ...
    I ended up calling LEGO up; they had a few left on the system so I ordered one. I was happy to make an exception to my "30% off" rule on this occasion..... I would URGE anyone sitting on the fence about this set to snap one up while you still can as it's truly a classic.

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,878
    It's too bad no other licensed series have a "Death Star" type of set of equal value. None of the Hogwarts measure up, nor Batcave or anything else. There is something to say about a playset of that magnitude.

    Still haven't picked one up yet either.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Honestly, I have better places to put $50K than those 125 sets, now if I could get them for 50% off, I could come up with the $25K. ;)

    The real problem is you don't know if Lego is running another batch and will ship 10,000 more sets to Amazon.

    I've got 6 of them saved, for now that is enough for me. :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @prevere - if you haven't bought a Death Star yet, now is the time...
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,878
    @prevere - if you haven't bought a Death Star yet, now is the time...
    Thanks for the heads up on the quantity updates. Even if it is a mirage, I broke down and picked 1 up. Cash flow be damned. I can't live with myself if 4 years from now, if this becomes a $1,000 set.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @LegoFanTexas - ONLY 6? :)
    I have 3 stashed away.
  • pcironepcirone Long Island, NYMember Posts: 346
    I have 6 also but I always feel it's not enough.
  • DavidRod8DavidRod8 Member Posts: 143
    It's hard for me to pull the trigger on this one when they are still listed as back ordered on [email protected] Target still shows it in stock... This is nerve wrecking...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @DavidRod8 - True, but keep in mind that you'll get no warning, it will be there, then it will be gone, and the price will jump a hundred bucks instantly, and then perhaps rocket up to $600 or so, where it will probably sit for a few months until it works up to $900 by next Christmas.

    In 2 years, I'm betting on $1,200, then 3 years it will be close to $1,800.

    I could be completely wrong of course. :)
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,288
    ^ I think the trajectory for the price increase will be more shallow. It's been around 3.5 years, and was rumored to be discontinued for much of this year so the people most keen on getting it before it's gone have had ample warning.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    I think @LegoFanTexas' pricing generally makes sense for Death Star.
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,720
    edited December 2011
    ^ Nope - I'm with Rocao. 99% of those that want one and can afford one, already have it - with another six under their bed. They've been given enough notice of its discontinuation. I don't think there's going to be much of a demand for it over the next few months-years. Well, there will, but not at extortionate prices. If buyers can't afford it now, why would they spend 300% more within a year??

    It will become a classic, I think it's going to be a long while for those sitting on them to make significant profits.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @flump6523 - you may well be right, I understand your logic and thinking, I just don't like it cause I've got 6 under the bed myself. :)
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,720
    ^ Well, if you cover the carriage to the UK, I'll take half of them off your hands for whatever you paid. Can't say fairer than that! :o)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,435
    ^ Nope - I'm with Rocao. 99% of those that want one and can afford one, already have it - with another six under their bed. They've been given enough notice of its discontinuation. I don't think there's going to be much of a demand for it over the next few months-years. Well, there will, but not at extortionate prices. If buyers can't afford it now, why would they spend 300% more within a year??

    It will become a classic, I think it's going to be a long while for those sitting on them to make significant profits.
    I remember saying this for the Ultimate Falcon set... which went on sale if I am not mistaken to a lower price, so people had ample time to pick up a bunch of them via [email protected] Yet they still rose pretty quick to be where they are at now (isn't like 1800?)

    There will be more LEGO SW collectors that will not have had a chance to get the set.. Laws of supply and demand.. as long as there is a demand for Star Wars sets, they will go up..

    The Falcon has proved this.. it may take longer granted, but they should rise (that is unless we all get on sites saying they will rise...lol)

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    Is the SW SSD supposed to be replacing the SW DS? There is a lot of chatter regarding the EOL on the DS, but I haven't heard anything official. Where's the talk coming from?

    I think the Obi-Wan Jedi Starfighter will be put on sale after Christmas. I'm sorry, but this particular set is not motivating and has to go.

    Looks like the camper may be gone at last. It is a rated as a good set, and I know my kid really enjoyed it.

    As a side note, I just found out my AT-AT was shipped and will arrive tomorrow. Had to get one with it selling out. I also have a Maersk train and EN train coming in today, so that should just about do it for outstanding orders. Unfortunately, I won't have time to recover financially before the after-Christmas sales.
  • SirKevbagsSirKevbags Fairy Land Member Posts: 4,030
    Isn't it people coming out of their dark ages that will drive the prices of retired classics. Sure everyone involved now has had ample opportunity to get a Death Star but year after year people will appear who didn't even know it existed.
  • pcironepcirone Long Island, NYMember Posts: 346
    I can understand being unsure if the DS can return 200%-500% in the near future, that's a lofty (but certainly attainable) goal. The beauty of it all lies in the fact that there is little doubt it will make say 10%-20% in at least the first year after EOL. How about trying to imagine it ever trading for less than RRP? Look at it like that and then how do you justify ONLY having 6 under the bed...
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,878
    I see a "drip" return for DS - 10-20% increase per year for about 10 years.

    The beauty with SW is that it's timeless. New generations that are kids now, will want the DS when they are old enough to work and pay for it. Can anyone say GI JOE Aircraft Carrier. If Lego doesn't do another DS, this one will carry enormous long-term value.

    But...if they do a middle-sized one (like the $100 Hogwarts), which I can totally see them doing, that could hurt value a tiny bit.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Wow, I never expected a GI Joe Aircraft Carrier to be referenced on this forum! Good parallel though, but from a very different age, before toy collecting became a massive mainstream industry. A 7 and a half-foot long toy though, I don't think it would have even fit in my childhood bedroom!
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,878
    Wow, I never expected a GI Joe Aircraft Carrier to be referenced on this forum! Good parallel though, but from a very different age, before toy collecting became a massive mainstream industry. A 7 and a half-foot long toy though, I don't think it would have even fit in my childhood bedroom!
    And only one figure - Admiral Keel-Haul. Hasbro - those cheap bastards!

    On a side note, left-over bagged Keel-Haul figures were eventually released through some strange channels and ended up as prizes at Chuck E. Cheese pizza/arcades and carnivals around the country as "Skeeball" prizes in 1993.

    To continue with the parallel...A pre-owned carrier w/ box sold recently on eBay for $1,300. Original MSRP $90.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    But...if they do a middle-sized one (like the $100 Hogwarts), which I can totally see them doing, that could hurt value a tiny bit.
    I tend to disagree with this comment only on the fact that the recently release SW MF (at $139.99 USD) has not cannibalized the larger and more expensive set we all know about. The $40 USD SW MF released a couple years ago (and now obsolete) is hitting nearly $100 in the aftermarket.

    Ultimately, if it's popular...it's popular. The DS will go up significantly after it's EOL'd (say $500-600/unit), and edge up at a slower rate thereafter to (I believe) over $1K USD within 3-4 years.

    And this comment coming from someone who owns only one DS. :-(
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,878
    What's MF?
  • prof1515prof1515 EarthMember Posts: 1,561
    What's MF?
    Millennium Falcon

  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Member Posts: 4,401
    I so desperately wanted that Aircraft Carrier as a kid. Sigh. :o)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,878
    I so desperately wanted that Aircraft Carrier as a kid. Sigh. :o)
    We all did. I've still never seen one set-up in person. Even the rich kids at my school never got it.

    I have thought about duplicating the MegaBlok aircraft carrier in Lego. A year ago, I bought a CD set on eBay with 300 MegaBlok instructions on it; with the goal of duplicating in Lego. Yup, it's still just sittin' on my desk.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    What sucks is that my best friend when I was 9 years old had the Carrier, his dad was a lawyer and could afford all the toys for him. He had the entire Lego City set (or town or whatever it was called in the 80s'). I just had a few boxes of random Lego, he had the entire attic filled with Lego.

    Sometimes I think that my obsession today with Lego is just trying to relieve that fantasy I had as a kid having all that Lego. Thankfully my wife is a doctor, so we can afford it. ;)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Ahh, almost deserves its own thread, but I won't... :) (unless the mods say I can!)

    Death Star @ Amazon down to 50 units...

    :)
  • DavidRod8DavidRod8 Member Posts: 143
    I wouldn't call it an obsession :) but I feel like that just about everything.... growing up we didn't have a lot, so there are a lot of things that I thought I had missed on... it's nice now to be able to walk into a store and buy "enough" of something, whether it's legos, video games, movies... you name it...

    So now we know you send your wife to work while you stay home watching the boards all day long :):):) Now you have even more people wanting to be you :):):)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @DavidRod8 - actually, I have my own IT business, so I do just fine myself, but yes, people have said that to me before when they find out what my wife does, I do get kidded about it. I can spend time here because I've managed to get things running well enough to have employees do most of the work, I could grow it more, but I really don't want to, I'm happy where I'm at because I get to see the kids at 3pm after school every day, and that is worth more to me than a vacation home and more cars in the garage.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @LegoFanTexas - kudos to you for having your priorities in order. I mean: with being there for your kids. Your priorities for LEGO are clearly out of whack! :) Kidding, of course.

    Which brings up a good question: how many times a day does everyone here check the Brickset Forum?

    :)
    - Dan
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @brickupdate - thanks... I didn't always feel this way, took me a few years to figure out what was really important in life. Picked the kids up from school today, built a puzzle with my 6 year old son, had a nice afternoon with the kids.

    That makes me happy, more happy than having a million dollars in the bank. I figured out at some point that money doesn't buy happiness, it just rents comfort.

    My wife works 3 days a week, takes the other 4 off, we have a happy life. :)
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @LegoFanTexas - nice. I have a young one, and work from home with my own business. My wife is home too, so we have lots of family time. And, of course, time to check Brickset and run out to the toy store! :)
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