Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

hoyatables

The Sith Infiltrator was on sale this weekend, and was also part of a "Sith Bundle" that earned double VIP points, so when paired with the TC-14 giveaway I suspect that helped move some supply.

It's currently on sale on Amazon (close to 20% off) so worth checking out if it is of interest. But it is a relatively new item, right? Can't imagine it is going out all that soon.

dougts

It's came out in the summer 2011 wave, so it's closing in on a year old now. Once the summer 2012 stuff starts hitting the shelves, shelf space could be a premium location by location, so it may become somewhat harder to find. That said, it's not been a particularly great seller by most accounts, so I would expect to see it linger at non-LEGO retailers for months and months, and probably even make it to some decent clearance sales.

Farmer_John

I appreciate the feedback...

hoyatables

^^surprised that it is not a great seller - I would think that the minifigs (Darth Maul, Qui-Gon, and Padme) would help to move it at least a little. May just be that it is overpriced -- not nearly as iconic as the X wing or even the Naboo fighter yet $20 more. I'll admit that the only reason I picked it up was because I expect to make some money on the resale of the TC-14.

LegoFanTexas

It is overpriced... nothing else is wrong with it that I can see. That being said, Amazon has this on sale almost all the time for 15-20% off, so that makes the price more "right".

I agree the minifigs should be selling it, however there are other more interesting sets, and it is indeed a big gray ship. :)

BuriedinBricks

I have not built the Infiltrator, but I've seen numerous reviews that have described it as a pretty bland design with some annoying/delicate features. While the Darth Maul fig is cool, there's only so much it can do to sell a set.

vader34mt

^the sith infiltrator is a set i picked up mostly for the minifigs

it is certainly not designed for kids, because when flipped upside down the entire ship flops open and all of darth maul's equipment falls out

one of the worst designed lego sets i have ever seen, fortunately i just display it with the figs

pstrickler27

I have a feeling the sith infiltrator will do very well in the aftermarket (if you pick it up at the right price).. not a lot of people are buying it now.. it has three relatively rare figs (they aren't released every year).. AFOL and even the kiddies might sweat over it when Darth Maul becomes harder and harder to find (how many sets can they really release him in besides the sith infiltrator?).. I realize it's a horrible build, but fans want the figs, not necessarily the ship.. the previous Sith Infiltrator did very well for me.. but that was a few years back when the market was less saturated..

I don't buy and sell Star Wars, but if that's your thing.. I would at least pick up two of them at discount on Amazon.. they might just come in handy..

BoiseState

The Darth Maul ship is one of the worst builds I've made since coming out of my dark ages. If it's important to you then get it, but if you're looking for fun this isn't it. In my opinion of course.

madforLEGO

It is overpriced... nothing else is wrong with it that I can see. That being said, Amazon has this on sale almost all the time for 15-20% off, so that makes the price more "right".

I agree the minifigs should be selling it, however there are other more interesting sets, and it is indeed a big gray ship. :)

It is overpriced AND they also had one out about 1 year before the new one came out(yea yeah I know this one has HORNS), over-saturating the market... Im sure their will be another Grievous starfighter in the works once the new set he is coming out in goes away... Same with Dooku..
I love how LEGO constantly makes version after version of Dooku, Grievous and Darth Maul, but will not make one more set with Jengo Fett in it (sorry the recent battle pack does not count)...

BoiseState

I'm hoping for another Lando as well.

AvengerDr

Apparently even a partial UCS MF will fetch a good sum. I have just seen 14.5% of a UCS MF being sold for £78+s/h on ebay (an auction for ~750 parts of the UCS MF). Which would make for a total of £540 for the full item. Now that I think of, £78 is relatively cheap :)

Though the price wouldn't cover the dish and the mast rigging..

hoyatables

I'm hoping for another Lando as well.

Me too. Bespin Lando, not Skiff Guard or ROTJ Pilot Lando. Though I suppose I could take Skiff Guard lando's head, pop it on ANH Han Solo's body, and make him TESB Pilot Lando.

Which leads me to another guess -- Bespin/Cloud City or Mos Eisley will return next year in some form. Just about every other "major" scene has been produced in the last couple of years -- Death Star, Hoth, Jabba's Palace, and Endor. We're due.

pvancil27

Well, since I just missed being able to get a 10198 from Amazon (stupid being broke), any chance anyone here would hook me up with one for 150 + ship? It'll be built so a damanged/open box would be fine, although I'd prefer a new one. (Got burned on a used set recently. =/ )

noblebrick

After being slightly bullish on Super Heroes before, now that I have seen Avengers (and how amazing it was), I am now VERY bullish on the avengers stuff in the next 24 mos. Anyone else thinking what affect the movie, spin offs and sequels will have on the long term value?

FollowsClosely

Well, since I just missed being able to get a 10198 from Amazon (stupid being broke), any chance anyone here would hook me up with one for 150 + ship? It'll be built so a damanged/open box would be fine, although I'd prefer a new one. (Got burned on a used set recently. =/ )

Go to bricklink.

LegoFanTexas

^ Ditto this... There are copies of this for sale in the $170 price range, no need to mess around here when you can just get a copy there for a reasonable price.

bamaker1

This is a great thread and extremely educational. I've really learned a lot from reading how others forecast when to buy and sell their LEGO sets.

I've a quick question... Brickset offers a feature in the main site for its users to track their collection, specifically sets one "Owns" and one "Wants." It also shows how many other Brickset users own or want the same set(s). I want to focus on the ""Want" sets for my question.

When trying to guess which sets are going to go up in value, how many people use this "Want" feature to judge a current set's popularity, and possible future value? And I don't mean for predicting sure things like the modular sets. I mean primarily for identifying hidden treasures, e.g. "Wow, a lot of people really want this $20 City set; maybe I ought to pick up a few, and see if it will increase substantially once it's gone."

I've used it off and on, with some hits & misses, but it did help me see that Ninjago was going to be a good buy. Some of the drawbacks are:
1) using data from a very dedicated population (Brickset users) and trying to extrapolate how the general population feels about a set;
2) interpreting the info too early in a set's distribution life, and getting skewed data because everyone is excited by a new set, but once it's released the excitement wanes;
3) giving proper weight to the "Wants" based on a theme's popularity -- 500 Wants for a set in an extremely popular theme do not mean as much as 500 Wants on a set in a seemingly lukewarm theme.

Anyway ... thoughts?

CCC

TBH I take "wants" with a pinch of salt. Also "owns".

timinchicago

So is it safe to say that the IS 10212 is truly EOL?

mkolandian

^ Why?

CCC

So is it safe to say that the IS 10212 is truly EOL?

No. UK Lego say it is out of stock, but you can still order it with an expected shipping date of 11 June. So OOS rather than EOL.

Renny

I doubt its done. I think they are just temporarily out of stock due to high volume of sales from the 20% off offer.

Farmer_John

No...I'm betting on at least another year for the IS. JMO.

SpaceCake

After being slightly bullish on Super Heroes before, now that I have seen Avengers (and how amazing it was), I am now VERY bullish on the avengers stuff in the next 24 mos. Anyone else thinking what affect the movie, spin offs and sequels will have on the long term value?

Yep, it's all I can think of right now. The film was absolutely epic (and has set a new all-time box office record I believe?) and Marvel has always been an incredibly strong contender as far as collectibles go.

I've been poring over the sets and I'm going to be grabbing at least two of each as and when funds will allow. They are DEFINITELY sets that I want for myself, for display purposes (by which I mean play with like a 10 year old), being a massive Marvel freak.

Took me a while to notice the Iron Man minifigures are different too. I previously thought them to be the same but now that I see they're both unique my faith has been bolstered.

I've been stacking up the cash in preparation for May 16th, which is infact my mother's birthday. Good thing she loves the Avengers because I'll probably have nothing to give her besides a Hulk minifig...

Odindusk

^ I so long for a life where I can give my mother a Hulk minfig for her birthday and have her be quite happy with it.

SpaceCake

^ I so long for a life where I can give my mother a Hulk minfig for her birthday and have her be quite happy with it.

Haha! I can't deny my Ma is slightly strange in comparison to others. I'm not complaining though!

:D

pharmjod

Received one of my orders today from SAH and the TC-14 was listed as on backorder on my invoice. So either that means I'll never get it, or there are going to be bunches more. I will be a little annoyed if I don't get it since I wouldn't have placed the order without the bonus.

parkerwilson

You would think they will try to fulfill the back-orders with the ones they get back from the stores, if any stores had any left over

pharmjod

Just realized there was already a thread for that bit of info... my bad :)

monkeyhanger

pharmjod: If it's not on it's way by the time the Hulk promotion has kicked off, i'd insist on one of those if it looks like you won't get a TC-14.

roxio

@LegoFanTexas
Hope your right about the Ninjago dragons - already got a stash of 2509 that Tesco clearanced at 60% off ready to sell at Xmas, and l just found half a dozen 2260, albeit at rrp, in local toyshop.

Farmer_John

I'm expecting the PotC to go EOL in the next few months. Perhaps not all the sets, but many of them.

1) PotC is licensed, which means it costs Lego more.
2) The movie came out roughly a year ago.
3) LotR (another licensed theme) is coming out soon.

I just don't see PotC hanging on much longer. JMO.

berniebond

Got an offer of 2 HP Hogwarts Express MISB for 65 each. Should I jump on it? I already got one for myself, so these two would only for selling purposes.

What do you think?

Thanks

Bernie

turtle1173

I just sold 3 Hogwarts express in the last few weeks. 2 for $150 each and the last for $155. So $65 is a great deal.

fyrmedhatt

I'm expecting the PotC to go EOL in the next few months. Perhaps not all the sets, but many of them.

1) PotC is licensed, which means it costs Lego more.
2) The movie came out roughly a year ago.
3) LotR (another licensed theme) is coming out soon.

I just don't see PotC hanging on much longer. JMO.

This is bound to happen soon, the "normal" Lego stores have not carried PotC since Christmas last year apart from the Black Pearl. I'm guessing it will go this summer.

SpaceCake

Got an offer of 2 HP Hogwarts Express MISB for 65 each. Should I jump on it? I already got one for myself, so these two would only for selling purposes.

What do you think?

Thanks

Bernie

65 what? Cabbages? Yen? Human souls? 65 is just a number without a currency!

:P

nkx1

^I think it's quite obvious he is referring to the Tenge currency issued by Kazakhstan. Or not.

LegoFanTexas

:) $65 each, or even 65 pounds each, would be a good deal for 4841 right now.

SpaceCake

^I think it's quite obvious he is referring to the Tenge currency issued by Kazakhstan. Or not.

Now that made me laugh. And I learned something new!

Hurrah!

gmpirate

Nah, wait until 4841 hits $200 -- then buy them at $65.

gollum

Got an offer of 2 HP Hogwarts Express MISB for 65 each. Should I jump on it? I already got one for myself, so these two would only for selling purposes.

What do you think?

Thanks

As long as it's not the Mini Hogwarts Express, that's a great deal. :) Someone might try to trick you and claim that 'MISB' stands for 'Mint In Sealed Bag'

LegoFanTexas

4841 in new, sealed bags, even without the box, is a deal at $65. Not a bad deal even at 65 pounds...

BoiseState

I have a ton of Hogwarts castles.. Maybe 20. Can't hardly give them away on EBay or for trade, so I'll hang on to them for awhile.

berniebond

ok. thanks. its 65 Euro- but still...

;-)
Thanks!

mak

^ Even better!

berniebond

I have a ton of Hogwarts castles.. Maybe 20. Can't hardly give them away on EBay or for trade, so I'll hang on to them for awhile.

Want to trade for a 4841? :-)

JBricks27

I have two Tc-14's that I'm looking to sell. Should I list them now, or what some time (hoping their value will increase). I'm new to reselling Lego and do not know how value fluctuates...

cheshirecat

Probably depends what timeframe you're talking. Now or in a month - probably now. Now or in a year - probably in a year.

jadedanc

@BoiseState What would you look for trade for the HP Castle (or 2)? Need for my 8 & 11 yo daughters Christmas