Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Steve_J_OM

Even the 4th released movie with "the human sarcophagus" Harrison Ford was better.

:-o I didn't want to drag the thread OT but I just had to register my shock at this comment! That last film was an abomination, and in my eyes there is only a trilogy and no more. ToD is the weakest of the trilogy, but I still like it. Besides, it gave us one of my all time favourite sets (which shows that a set doesn't necessarily need to be accurate to be awesome).

I don't think LOTR is too adult-oriented for the sets to be a hit with kids. Heavy going, sure, but I'd actually liken it to Indiana Jones in terms of having adult themes but at the same time being quite accessible to younger fans. I can't see anything other than success with this line, it's on another planet to the likes of POTC (which I saw it compared to earlier) in terms of following.

dougts

So that leaves AFOLs to drive the line... and while I have no doubt many AFOLs will get behind the line, I've found the sets to be somewhere between mediocre and flat-out awful.

Yes, AFOLs are going to drive the line, and they are going to do it in spite of, not because of the mediocre sets design. All because of minifigs. Minifigs are what drive licensed set sales - especially to AFOLs. LEGO knows this, and thus they can get away with lackluster sets (from an AFOL perspective)

fyrmedhatt

It's pretty obvious that lego is aiming for the 9-14 years part of their primary market and not the age 5-8 years range, but the former group is pretty big too. Kids today are extremely well informed when it comes to what's trendy, and I have no doubt that elementary and middle school playgrounds around the world will be buzzing about the coming Hobbit movie this fall, so I see why Lego wants to capitalize on it.

Personally I was 14 when the first LoTR movie came out, and at the time I was a few years into my dark ages as a Lego fan. I'm sure I would have picked up a few sets if they had produced such a grown-up range of Lego LoTR products back then, and I'm certain several others in my class would have done the same. I also clearly remember kids several years younger than me (in their Lego prime) wanted to see the movies, and they could easily do so as it had an 11 year rating (in Norway and most of Europe).

Of course there are many intangibles that come into play to determine whether a line is a success or not, but if the Hobbit movies are nearly as successful as the LoTR trilogy was, Lego could have a runaway hit on their hands. This would likely translate to success on the secondary market, especially with the large number of adult fans of LoTR.

voidstar

My take on LoTR is that at least in America, parents are much more lenient about exposing their kids to violence on screen, especially fantasy violence. Add that to the fact that the Hobbit is frequently required reading in school, and I think they have a solid '10-14 yr old boys' base to market this set to. No doubt there will also be a LEGO LoTR game which cartoonifies the violence and drives kids to the sets.

It will probably do somewhere between HP and PotC. When they retire though, I bet they will sell very well because of the AFOL pickup. If they flop like PoP or are short lived, I'll be getting a bunch. The minifigs alone will pay for the sets and the bricks won't go to waste!

mathew

Actually I like Temple of Doom. It's the most 'true to the source' of the series. It's violent and kind of dumb in parts but entertaining.

Bandit

It's hard to even compare PG13 today to those of 25 years ago. PG-13 movies today most certainly would have been rated R back in the 80s...

BuriedinBricks

@dougts - I agree that the minifigs are going to be the biggest factor in the success of the line. People are going to want to have the full fellowship. They will want to have the army builder orcs and goblins. The actual bricks will be an afterthought for many of them.

This probably needs its own topic, but I'm assuming there are a lot of people on here who break up sets to part out, right?

CCC

What are people going to do with their CMF S3 elves now? Sell them off or replace the yellow skin with pink?

Farmer_John

Gotta ask...have most everyone seen PoP? Or did many just pickup the lego sets without having seen the movie. Lots of slashing in that flick.

I view LotR as a grown-up fantasy because it has many sub-themes that kids just aren't mature enough to understand or relate to. On the other hand, I view HP as more escapism fantasy for adults, but primarily for kids (not nearly as deep as LotR). I am referring to the books here.

So to the @voidstar's point above LotR will probably do great with AFOLs, but kids will treat it more like the Castle Fantasy theme. Although I view HP as much more shallow than LotR (Tolkien actually created new languages for The Hobbit and LotR), HP has broader appeal across age ranges and will do better in the intermediate run than LotR.

JMO

LegoFanTexas

Gotta ask...have most everyone seen PoP? Or did many just pickup the lego sets without having seen the movie. Lots of slashing in that flick.

No, never seen it...

It always seemed like a male version of Tomb Raider, without Angelina Jolie running around.

There is just something that I can't quite put my finger on... as to why TR is superior to PoP. Hmm... :)

turtle1173

So to the @voidstar's point above LotR will probably do great with AFOLs, but kids will treat it more like the Castle Fantasy theme. Although I view HP as much more shallow than LotR (Tolkien actually created new languages for The Hobbit and LotR), HP has broader appeal across age ranges and will do better in the intermediate run than LotR.

Good point. My son enjoys the LotR movies with the many characters. Yet he was really disappointed with the major fantasy elements departing from the Kingdoms line. So this is kind of "two birds with one stone." Lord of the Rings & back to the fantasy castle series in one swoop.

I'm not going to lie... I'm excited too :-)

gollum

Gotta ask...have most everyone seen PoP? Or did many just pickup the lego sets without having seen the movie. Lots of slashing in that flick.

I watched PoP but did not like it. I bought the PoP sets because they looked neat to me.

I watched PotC and thought they got worse with each installment. I have not bought any of the sets but may pick up one/both ships because those look pretty nice.

I watched LotR and loved the trilogy. Can you tell by my username? ;) I will definitely be getting all of those sets.

Farmer_John

I just happen to notice that Alien Conquest is still out and available. Does anyone think it is selling well? I do have (and like) some of the AC sets, but that theme seems to have been out a little longer than expected. Is it supposed to EOL soon? Does anyone know?

Thx.

mathew

AC is EOL'd as far as I know. There was some discussion about it a couple of weeks ago. Most agree that it didn't live up to its potential.

Farmer_John

To my surprise, they still have several AC sets on sale at S@H. I was just wondering when S@H was going to officially EOL it...

LegoFanTexas

They might be just letting them run out naturally...

I saw several AC sets for sale in Wally World today, including the tripod walker, which was $15 after Christmas, but scanned at full price today. They had a bunch of the $10.99 sets and several motherships.

I did find a single Series 5 CMF for $1! Woot! :) The rest of S6 and S7 were all full price. Boo!

Unrelated note, they had much of the Transformers kreo for 50% off, including the big Optimus for $30. Picked up all they had of that.

voidstar

As FB approaches its sunset, I'm starting to doubt the conventional wisdom about it not being that popular. Given these facts:

1. It has lasted longer than other modulars
2. It has stuck around even though it's the oldest of 4 modulars
3. It's still selling at full price through LEGO and was rarely on sale anywhere else

It seems to me that this set was probably quite popular. If not, why wouldn't TLG have put it on sale by now to clear out the remaining inventory and make space for something more popular?

Also I doubt TLG just 'finds palettes' of anything (they probably know almost down to the unit how much they have of everything) so they must have been producing in line with demand pretty well. It just doesn't seem likely that they overproduced and are taking a long time to sell it off.

They must plan to EOL when current demand dwindles below what a new set could command, but since the aftermarket is much smaller than their market, what is small for TLG is still big for resellers. Also the 'hoarding' market is much smaller too and I doubt its enough of a blip to make TLG extend the life of the set.

So you have >2.5yrs of strong demand for a set which helps complete a theme, and a small percentage of that pent-up future demand reserved in aftermarket hoards... I think FB will sell pretty well after it retires, even if not right away.

BuriedinBricks

Just got a "back in stock" notification from TRU on the Fire Brigade. That set just will not die.

doriansdad

Just got a "back in stock" notification from TRU on the Fire Brigade. That set just will not die.

Thank goodness. I was going to load up on these if Lego was going to throw in a TC-14 which each order....now I will wait for a B1G1 sale from TRU and go to town. It will be gone by December...maybe earlier if it sells out.

Farmer_John

I actually amazed at the number of themes and sets Lego is selling now. There are several sets/themes that I would have thought would have been EOL'd by now, but are still on sale with no end in sight (FB included). Doesn't bode well for aftermarket sellers...

dougts

After months of absence, FB is back on the shelf at my local LEGO store. It may just make it to Black Friday yet...

y2josh

I actually amazed at the number of themes and sets Lego is selling now. There are several sets/themes that I would have thought would have been EOL'd by now, but are still on sale with no end in sight (FB included). Doesn't bode well for aftermarket sellers...

I disagree to a point. I think it hurts the short term, but probably not the long term. In fact, it may help in the long run. Some sellers who hoarded Fire Brigade back in the day hoping to turn a quick profit may get frustrated and offload their product hoping to minimize a perceived loss. Additionally, moving forward, the more sporadic and unreliable EOL timeframes may prevent people from hoarding sets they think are going out.

In the end, though, it doesn't matter that much to me. I do sell retired sets here and there, but not as a means to sustain myself so much as a means to sustain my hobby.

mathew

There's also the fact that if FB is still selling well then why discontinue it. My guess is that since Green Grocer was EOL'd, modulars have skyrocketed in popularity.

LegoFanTexas

There's also the fact that if FB is still selling well then why discontinue it.

Why? Because business 101 tells you that you should never wear out your welcome. :)

Ok, maybe that is more business 301, but the point remains... There does come a point where continued production of an older item actually hurts a business like Lego, they should be selling TH at a rate several times higher than FB (if not, then that says something terrible about TH). If they devoted the resources FB is consuming to building a set that would sell 3x faster, they'll really make more money in the end.

Finally, it is harmful to Lego if their product is out so long that everyone begins to percieve it as "always around", then people will say 'someday' which really becomes never.

There are other reasons as well...

MMV has overstayed its welcome for the same reason, DS is at risk of doing so, as are a few other older sets.

There are exceptions to this rule of course... The older 6212 X-Wing was around for, what, 6 years? That is ok, because it is the sort of set that Lego must always sell. If they discontinue it, they must make another one. There must always be an X-Wing as long as there is Star Wars Lego, anything else would be foolish.

Ditto with a Lego Police Station, Lego must always have one of those too, and so on.

voidstar

There does come a point where continued production of an older item actually hurts a business like Lego, they should be selling TH at a rate several times higher than FB (if not, then that says something terrible about TH). If they devoted the resources FB is consuming to building a set that would sell 3x faster, they'll really make more money in the end.

Right, and this, along with the fact TLG is not putting them on sale to clear them out faster, indicates there is still good demand in the target market, and that demand should continue into the aftermarket after retirement, would you agree?

CCC

Just got a "back in stock" notification from TRU on the Fire Brigade. That set just will not die.

Thank goodness. I was going to load up on these if Lego was going to throw in a TC-14 which each order....now I will wait for a B1G1 sale from TRU and go to town. It will be gone by December...maybe earlier if it sells out.

The TC-14 is for Star Wars purchases only isn't it? It is in the UK.

doriansdad

Just got a "back in stock" notification from TRU on the Fire Brigade. That set just will not die.

Thank goodness. I was going to load up on these if Lego was going to throw in a TC-14 which each order....now I will wait for a B1G1 sale from TRU and go to town. It will be gone by December...maybe earlier if it sells out.

The TC-14 is for Star Wars purchases only isn't it? It is in the UK.

That is what they said last year too with the ARF trooper, and we all know how that went down. Point is mute now...the better deal will be TRU B1G1 50% off for FB. Steering clear of this weak sale...will pick up TC-14 when ebay gets flooded in a week or so.

mak

^ Good plan, I intend to do the same. I thought DS would be reduced so I'll get one but how wrong was I. DS still lives on!

FollowsClosely

As FB approaches its sunset, I'm starting to doubt the conventional wisdom about it not being that popular. Given these facts:

1. It has lasted longer than other modulars
2. It has stuck around even though it's the oldest of 4 modulars

I believe the R9R1 production issue is the sole reason the FB is still around. An extra run was added which extend the life of this modular even further than originally expected. I did hear from a well connected LEGO employee that LEGO will be adding a year to the life expectancy of each Modular from this point forward. Makes sense given the popularity of this series and the cash the target audience has.

3. It's still selling at full price through LEGO and was rarely on sale anywhere else
...

I was able to get all I wanted from TRU with a BOBO, I was never able to stock up on other modular buildings like I did with the FB. It was by far the easiest to get below MSRP to date. I, like others, expect the return of this set to disappoint. There is a LOT of stock out there sitting sealed and waiting to be flipped by an ever increasing group of people looking to make an easy $ (or $100).

The GG gained %100 in the first year, and another %100 the following. I would expect the FB to follow %40 and %50 respectfully. Then again its all speculation and a gamble. A gamble with no down side, that is you don't mind consuming the blocks yourself ;)

thornie

^ If TLG does indeed add an extra year to the life of the modulars, it might one of the smartest things they have ever done. They aren't blind, I'm sure they look at those old modular sets on ebay/bricklink and see that there are AFOLs out there ready and willing to shell out double and in some cases triple the original MSRP for those sets. That's money they could be making.

cheshirecat

It would be so interesting to know how many FB's are stored away hoping for a massive payday. It could be a long long time before those kind of profits ever materialise and all that time people have money tied up in boxes going nowhere.

In the last 6 months only 50 new cafe corners have been sold on bricklink. Have a suspicion that some here have many more than that on their own.

hoyatables

^Agree re TLG being happy about Modulars. I have to think that (up to a point for the reasons LFT mentioned) they have to be happy about getting extra life out of sets that are already in production, so long as they deliver profit. Marginal cost is just the cost of the materials, shipping, etc -- presumably, based on how these sets were budgeted, they have already covered the cost of design and setting up production.

This all said, it is possible that the Fire Brigade is "special" -- we know that LEGO loves its police and fire stations!!

pstrickler27

Fire Brigade is probably still selling so well because we are all still buying it in anticipation for aftermarket success.. I looked on Amazon today and there are 40 resellers with Fire Brigade in stock.. each of those sellers probably has 20 stocked away on average (these are big name aftermarket sellers).. that's about 800 sets that need to be sold off (and these guys sell at low margins - only about 25% return).. it will be a while before the 30 I have stowed away will be worth much..

In short.. I'm pretty much done with the Modulars.. they are now oversaturated.. on to the next..

doriansdad

FB will sell for $250 the day after it is EOL'd. Not expecting much else but I will take 123% returns all day every day.

BuriedinBricks

As I'm just getting into the speculating on EOL sets game, I will not be tucking away modulars. I have an extra GE, but that's probably going to be it. I'd rather sink the money into smaller $20-50 sets.

LegoFanTexas

^^ FB is indeed $199 on Amazon right now, but that isn't a 25% return, it is a zero return, unless those sellers are buying them wholesale...

$199.99 selling price
$30.00 - 15% commission
$8.22 - FBA shipping fee
$1.00 - Inbound shipping fee and some storage

Net income after fees - $160.77

Even if they were ALL purchased BOGO50% from TRU, unlikely, but even if they were, that is a lot of work, a lot of orders, a lot of shipping, and a lot of risk, for a few bucks.

Keep in mind, that with those FB, being FBA items, the customers can open them, and then return them, for a 100% refund, leaving the sellers with used, opened Lego sets and no recourse.

Yea, no thanks...

doriansdad

^^ FB is indeed $199 on Amazon right now, but that isn't a 25% return, it is a zero return, unless those sellers are buying them wholesale...

Why sell on Amazon? Craiglist is your friend.

LegoFanTexas

^ If you can get $200 for FB on CL, more power to you... You might sell a few that way, but in volume?

http://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-Creator-1930s-Fire-Brigade-10197-2-231-Pieces-BRAND-NEW-/221000153957?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3374a2bb65

FB can be had for really close to RRP on eBay right now, there is no money there. I was just pointing out that Amazon isn't money either, even with the higher price.

FB needs to actually EOL before any of those prices rise.

madforLEGO

It would be so interesting to know how many FB's are stored away hoping for a massive payday. It could be a long long time before those kind of profits ever materialise and all that time people have money tied up in boxes going nowhere.

In the last 6 months only 50 new cafe corners have been sold on bricklink. Have a suspicion that some here have many more than that on their own.

Most people that buy these get them on sale and you will break even at worst if you know what you are doing.

As for people having 50 Cafe Corners, I think you give people more credit than they deserve.. not many people realized these would do this (hence the huge price), and I think many supplies have dwindled.
I'm guessing people may have had more than 1, but I'm guessing not many, same with Market Street. Green Grocer is another story it seems like that will have a steady supply, but even with a somewhat steady supply these are still around $500 bucks.
I'm guessing with EN and IF those will be hovering around 250 for the EN and about 400-450 for IF by Christmas, then could rise after Christmas when people get their bonuses and Christmas money.
Considering many people bought the EN for 76 a piece and IF for about 140-150 each via LEGO's sales and deals I'm guessing people are making money, even at prices that are stagnated by the oncoming of Summer (outdoor seasons) and the large supply.

Bandit

^
I know we've had this discussion before, but until someone can prove to me that these people are selling FBs for $200 on Amazon (to apparently complete idiots), I'm not going to believe they're selling any at all. :) Has anyone here actually sold current, in-production sets that you can get anywhere, on Amazon for 25% markups above MSRP???

dougts

^ not sure about Amazon, but this happens all the time on ebay - typically international sales, but some domestic as well. never underestimate the ignorance of the masses.

pstrickler27

^ I have sold the Dynamic Duo Funhouse Escape on Amazon at 100% mark-up - it's a little different because it's exclusive, but I sold a Fire Brigade for $215 when they were on back order on Lego.com.. these are two rare exceptions.. I doubt those Fire Brigades are selling in big numbers at the moment, but I think they will stick around at that price point for at least a year or two once the set reaches an official EOL (December 21, 2012 IMO).. Too much supply.. too little demand.. all my opinion.. but I think it's spot on..

When everyone knows about a good thing.. it's no longer a good thing.. (investment terms - Vanilla is still a good thing..)

Bandit

^
Well, like LFT said, at $200, the FB is basically coming out as a wash for the seller who bought them at $150, or a bit of a profit for those who got them at bogos. So $200 is really the *minimum* these can be listed at, regardless of whether they sell or not....

cheshirecat

^^^^^ sorry I meant far more than 50 fb not cc. That was my point. Cc made big money because there isn't much supply. Theres likely literally thousands of fb stored out there and I just dont believe there are that many people willing to pay far over rrp. 100s perhaps as cc has shown but 1000s?

BrickDancer

^From a personal opinion, CC is nice because it was first and is a corner, same for GE but looks better. Green Grocer is nice because of its color, especially stands out when compared to the colors for rest of the block. PS is nice because of the novel splitting into 2 buildings.

But FB is the Modular I couldn't live without. It's functional, distinctly 2 toned building makes it more realistic, furnished interior and has the best rooftop. It epitomizes what I imagine for Brooklyn neighborhoods of that time period. That's why I believe it will not matter much in the end for the max price based on how many are held for resell. It might be a longer time before getting there compared to CC & GG, but will surely get there.

madforLEGO

^^^^^ sorry I meant far more than 50 fb not cc. That was my point. Cc made big money because there isn't much supply. Theres likely literally thousands of fb stored out there and I just dont believe there are that many people willing to pay far over rrp. 100s perhaps as cc has shown but 1000s?

Gotcha. I'm with you on guessing there are those with near 50 of these, just biding their time to sell them.

I think CC will hit 1000, it may take bit longer than Cafe Corner (although it seems to be taking the same price path as CC did, so far at least) but it will. FB may be the first one to only stabilize at 500 for a while, but I think all in all they will go up. The demand is obviously there, and once it is gone you will only be able to get one from a reseller, so while you will not see meteoric rises like the Market street or CC, you will see an increase. Again look at EN and IF.. despite having A LOT out there before it 'selling out' they seem to have risen in price, this also despite them being on 'clearance' via LEGO's site and the EN being constantly sold at 90 dollars on Amazon. The key is they have stabilized now, again I think due to a few factors. I would point out to anyone waiting to find the perfect deal this is it. I think once the fall hits and Christmas shopping starts these are going to climb, despite the number that will most likely be on BL and eBay.T
They may not be world beaters but as long as demand is there they will go up.

doriansdad

^ If you can get $200 for FB on CL, more power to you... You might sell a few that way, but in volume?

Talking AFTER the EOL date...early 2013. $250 easily. Good trades!

doriansdad

Well bit the bullet and loaded up on FB and Earth Defense. Figure the poster and promo fig should fetch $30 somewhere. Add 10% back thu VIP points and credit card cashback and this will prob beat a TRU sale and no crushed boxes.

Farmer_John

Well bit the bullet and loaded up on FB and Earth Defense. Figure the poster and promo fig should fetch $30 somewhere. Add 10% back thu VIP points and credit card cashback and this will prob beat a TRU sale and no crushed boxes.

Don't you have to order $75 worth of SW sets to get the promo fig? You also have to order at least one SW set to get the poster, I believe.

cloaked7

^ doesn't look like that is the case. I put $75+ of NON SW stuff in my cart, and the TC-14 was added. Now, would it be shipped? I think so, unless LEGO catches the mistake. Errrr... if it is a mistake. Maybe the advertising is what's wrong. It's all very obvious... Not! :-)

I have also wondered if they'll run out of the TC-14's like they did the ARF Trooper last year? Or, did they learn from that and have a ton more available? I put my orders in at 12:15 just to hedge my bets. I would not have ordered most of the stuff I ordered if I wasn't going to get the mini-fig. Regardless of how many they have (unless it is an insanely high number) I think the minifig will go for 20+ this Christmas or next, just like the ARF mini did.