Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

prevere

The Creator houses look nice from the outside. And we have some on our Lego city layout. But there is nothing inside. Once in awhile, I'll pop the top off the Apple Tree House and find hoards of minifigs. The kids must stuff them through the tiny front door.

Must have a been a house party I was breaking up.

Honestly, the layout of the Friends' Olivia House (from the inside perspective), is quite nice.

mathew

Honestly, the layout of the Friends' Olivia House (from the inside perspective), is quite nice.

Yes, Olivia's House is very well detailed on the inside even more than the modulars. I think if they upped the detail on something like the Apple Tree House that it would be more appealing to girls.

LegoFanTexas

Public Transport in the US is a TRU Exclusive, Lego has discontinued it, however TRU seemed to have a warehouse full since their BOGO deals kept offering it, even last month.

That tells me that, while cool, it won't do as well as I thought it would, so I stopped buying them.

dougts

^ yeah, I have 4 stashed from the LEGO clearance, and I think I'll be sitting on them quite a while before it even gets back to RRP. I was looking at ~$100 City sets that have retired in recent years - the market on those in general seems not so hot

legomyLEGGO

^ I was looking at ~$100 City sets that have retired in recent years - the market on those in general seems not so hot

That's kinda funny. I've always had the same sense about the $100 sets; not all of course, but in general. Could be the shopping psyche; kinda like how $19.99 seems more attractive than $20 to some shoppers (like Ellen, I prefer the rounded version - lol). It seems like the more popular (at least form the standpoint of reselling), are the $150 sets (like the Modulars). Could just be mumbo jumbo. Anyways...

I did initially buy into the whole "Fan's Choice" thing. But really I just liked it for the prospect of adding it to my city theme.

madforLEGO

The Creator houses look nice from the outside. And we have some on our Lego city layout. But there is nothing inside. Once in awhile, I'll pop the top off the Apple Tree House and find hoards of minifigs. The kids must stuff them through the tiny front door.

Must have a been a house party I was breaking up.

LOL...

I like the Creator houses.. nothing is in them, but I believe that is the point, to build stuff to put in them (and maybe not treat it like a 'Clown car' :-) )

I think it is great marketing for PaB walls personally, most of the parts you can find on a wall you probably could build furniture with

pstrickler27

Harry Potter should reach EOL soon. Don't know how well they will do in the aftermarket considering that it's all done and over with now (no more books or movies). I know it still has a strong following, but will that be enough??

morbiczer

Harry Potter should reach EOL soon. Don't know how well they will do in the aftermarket considering that it's all done and over with now (no more books or movies). I know it still has a strong following, but will that be enough??

I would be extremly surprised if the Harry Potter books wouldn't stay popular with kids for decades to come.

Also, the films will probably get the 3D treatment in a few years unless this whole 3D craze stops.

monkeyhanger

I don't think Harry Potter will stand the test of time like Star Wars or Even Marvel/DC. In 5 years time the kids will have moved onto something else.

cloaked7

^ Yup, much like happened with Bionicle. Certain lines need book, movie, and/or cartoon tie in's. That is, some sort of marketing. Or, there isn't a demand from kids. We all fall prey to marketing, but kids do more so than adults. When the marketing ends so does most of the demand.

Steve_J_OM

I strongly disagree with the above sentiments - I'm not sure how you can even compare Harry Potter to Bionicle. HP is based on hugely influential source material that will be relevant for decades - today's teenage/adult HP fans are tomorrow's parents, and their kids will no doubt grow up exposed to the books/movies. Also, it's just far too lucrative a franchise for WB to just let fade - they will work to keep it relevant. I can easily see theatrical re-releases further down the line; and who knows, one day maybe actual remakes.

dougts

Also, the films will probably get the 3D treatment in a few years unless this whole 3D craze stops.

I hope it does - at least for converting old films. I have yet to see a live-action film successfully converted to 3d. It's just terrible. I hope it stops. Movies filmed in 3d (or at least filmed for 3d post-processing) work well, the whole "conversion of an old 2d movie" is just dreadful.

dougts

we'll see about HP. It's s different world now than it was 30 years ago. Back then, things stayed relevant in pop culture for years at a time. Now it's weeks. The "churn" is SO fast, and there are 100 times more things competing for everyone's time and attention. Kids now know nothing other than an instant gratification society. no concept of waiting. We had to wait 3 years between SW movies back in the early '80s. No way kids will wait that long today in between franchise installments.

the HP books will likely continue to sell - they are entering the "classics" of children's literature. But will HP continue to be a pop culture phenomena? It's already faded quite a bit out of the limelight and will likely to continue to do so. New kids will read the books and watch the movies, but you aren't going to see product tie-ins on the shelves anymore unless and until new content is created at some point in the future. LEGO HP sets should do well in the next couple of years, then drop off quite a bit (demand, not necessarily price). Perhaps there will be a bounce - back 10 years down the road when HP fans get to their mid-20s and beyond, perhaps have kids, and then re-discover LEGO and want to acquire those old sets.

LegoFanTexas

^ This...

Star Wars would not be what it is today without the books, cartoon, and other tie-ins. The three new movies were nice, but are not enough to really keep it going, the last movie was released 7 years ago.

Without a cartoon, new books, comics, *something* to keep it in the front, HP will fade.

That doesn't mean it will go away, LOTR has kept a following for a long time without all that, however it wasn't until the three big movies that it jumped back into the limelight. Without the new movie coming out this year, do you really think we'd have LOTR Lego?

dougts

^ not a chance. SW is really unique. It was the right thing at the right time. I don't believe it is a repeat-able formula in 2012 and beyond (for that matter, probably anytime from 1990 and beyond). The entire "can X be the next SW..." is a false premise - there is no next SW. From a product marketing standpoint, it's an extremely unique IP.

LOTR is an apt comparison for HP I think, in the way you describe. the books will always be knows, and constantly in print for decades to come. but only the prospect of new entertainment material (movies/tv) sometime in the future will put a new round of products on the shelves

BuriedinBricks

It is worth noting with Star Wars, there was almost nothing out there to keep the franchise alive beyond the original three movies until 1991. The first book in the Zahn trilogy was really the first material for the expanded universe since Jedi left the theaters. Despite an eight year gap with nothing but merchandise, Star Wars very much remained a part of pop culture because of just those three movies (and the toys...can't forget the toys).

HP has seven books and eight movies, along with a ton of merchandise. It has fan communities around the world and arguably more fans than Star Wars even has. Universal Studios just dedicated an entire section of its theme park to the IP. I can easily see Rowling giving in and allowing some material to be written in an expanded HP universe. It may take a decade, but she will eventually realize (like Lucas did) that there's a demand for new material that takes place in her wizarding world.

LegoFanTexas

^ yeah, I have 4 stashed from the LEGO clearance, and I think I'll be sitting on them quite a while before it even gets back to RRP. I was looking at ~$100 City sets that have retired in recent years - the market on those in general seems not so hot

City garage has done well, but it is the exception.

UKtsumi

^ so the next generation will want all those expensive HP sets they couldnt buy when they were younger... shame I have no interest in them, (or space)

LegoFanTexas

Perhaps, but I see new material and I see new Lego sets... If Lego comes out with more HP sets 5 or 10 years from now, say with a 3D rerelease or new books/movies, the older sets probably will look... Well... Old... :(

The market for HP sets probably is 1 to 3 years, anything longer is risky.

monkeyhanger

The expanded HP universe is already out there - Rowling is the biggest plagarist ever, so many classic stories, movies and myths ripped off. If I plagarised to the same level at school, I would have failed all my exams! My nephews and nieces got into Harry Potter at the "right" age but now it's over, they couldn't care much for it, certainly 2 of my Lego mad nephews would leave HP stuff on the shelves every time. I really don't see the demand for HP Lego in 5 years time, and can't see it standing the test of time as a set of stories with such a strong tie to evergreen movies like SW has. The HP movies fuelled the Lego demand IMO, now they're fading away, the long term continued reading of the books for future generations won't do much for the demand of HP Lego.

fyrmedhatt

@LegoFanTexas and anyone else for that matter, I think the Harry Potter sets can appreciate for a good while, as many of the posters above are mentioning, the fan community is humungous. There is currently thousands of kids out there playing muggle quidditch in high school and university sanctioned tournaments, geeky- yes, but it certainly shows how popular the IP is.

More so than that, the books and movies were popular and at the forefront of the public eye for almost fifteen years, meaning that a very large range of kids were exposed to it, unlike most other trends that last for only a few years. The kids that really grew up with the HP movies are about to graduate from college and get their own disposable income, and it would not surprise me if many of them go on spending sprees to buy HP related collectibles.

The one thing that speaks out against Lego Harry Potter, is the dominance of female fans, which to me have always seemed a little less enthusiastic than their male counterparts in craving merchandise, especially a male dominated toy like Lego.

The one line I like to highlight when it comes to the future potential of the Harry Potter sets are the two Avatar the Last Airbender sets that were released in 2006. They are really not that well designed, the minifigures look questionable, and lots and lots of them were put on sale for cheap, meaning that resellers must have had a decent stock. Nevertheless, due to the fans of the series these sets have appreciated significantly in value. As the fan community for Harry Potter is so much bigger, I would think the potential for the series is far greater, so these sets should be worthwhile to buy up. The quality of the HP sets and minifigs is also much, much better than the AtLA ones, so they should have appeal among general Lego fans and minifig customizers/collectors as well.

dougts

Despite an eight year gap with nothing but merchandise, Star Wars very much remained a part of pop culture because of just those three movies (and the toys...can't forget the toys).

As noted earlier, you can't compare 1983-1991 to 2011-2019. *Everything* has changed in terms of pop culture trends and how long any one thing can remain prominent.

Bumblepants

I think the main problem with continuing Harry Potter is the lack of new things to make. In Star Wars there are countless ships, speeders, and characters which all can be flown, driven, and battled with. Harry Potter has far fewer 'play-withable' things that can be produced. While I am sure there are plenty of things in that theme yet to be made that hardcore Potter fans would want to see/have, there probably isn't much Lego could sell in droves to kids they haven't done once or twice already.

Si_UKNZ

yeah I just sold my last one of those, they went like hot cakes, cant understand why at all!

(how did this thread get onto this?!)

dougts

^ While I agree this is a problem, it isn't the "main problem". The main problem is that there are no more mass-media multimillion dollar marketing campaigns designed to launch the next movie. HP could have 100 more vehicles for LEGO to make, but without the free advertising and buzz of an upcoming movie, LEGO still wouldn't make them.

BuriedinBricks

@dougts - Respectfully disagree. HP, much like Star Wars, is a product that has already spanned generations. Kids who read and loved the first novels growing up now have kids of their own. They will pass on their interest in the books and movies, building up new generations of fans.

We can go back and forth on this forever though. The main question: Will those sets be worth 2x RRP or more over the next 2-5 years after EOL? I'm going to have to admit that's a no for most of them. Diagon Alley would be my guess for best performer out of the current line because it's a unique set with limited availability. The rest of them will probably be very mini-fig dependent.

morbiczer

HP could have 100 more vehicles for LEGO to make, but without the free advertising and buzz of an upcoming movie, LEGO still wouldn't make them.

But the main discussion point here is not whether LEGO will ever make new HP sets, but whether the books will be popular with kids 5-10-15 years from now. That is what will create demand on the secondary market. And I am pretty sure that kids will love the books many years from now too.

The books are pretty timeless, there is no technology in them that will change significantly in the coming decades (there will be cars, trains, books, stc.), so the story and the world will remain easy to understand. There is really no reason for kids in the coming decades not to read HP.

madforLEGO

^ While I agree this is a problem, it isn't the "main problem". The main problem is that there are no more mass-media multimillion dollar marketing campaigns designed to launch the next movie. HP could have 100 more vehicles for LEGO to make, but without the free advertising and buzz of an upcoming movie, LEGO still wouldn't make them.

Exactly.. The key is marketability.. For example: PoTC is dead until the next movie comes out, then LEGO will more than likely have another line of sets coming out for that movie.. Still kinda sad that they did not do a TRON line.

SW on the other hand is still on TV, I see no Potter cartoon however.. There could be a billion fans sites, with a billion fan written novels.. It does not matter.
Now if (or I guess I should say when) Potter gets re-released to the theater then I see the lines coming back again.. and maybe they will redo shrieking shack

greekmick

Its strange that they do not make any more dvds of the movies for sale. Im guessing they will release them in a few years again fueling demand for hp stuff again.

dougts

...but whether the books will be popular with kids 5-10-15 years from now. That is what will create demand on the secondary market. And I am pretty sure that kids will love the books many years from now too.

The books are pretty timeless, there is no technology in them that will change significantly in the coming decades (there will be cars, trains, books, stc.), so the story and the world will remain easy to understand. There is really no reason for kids in the coming decades not to read HP.

Agree and disagree. As I've already stated, the books WILL remain popular for ages to come. No disagreement there. Where I disagree is that HP books will drive secondary market HP LEGO sets 10 years from now. There really is ZERO precedence for this at all in the toy market, and I certainly wouldn't bank on it happening for HP either. There are plenty of timeless childen's books series that have been in print for decades - how many of them drive toy sales, new or out of production?

prevere

Between Public Transport and City Corner. The Corner has prospered nicely since EOL. Public Transport needed a complete loop of track to make it worthwhile. A new city line of monorail - that's the ticket for the future of the city series.

pstrickler27

Harry Potter certainly is a strange bird. It's a new kind of phenomenon.. Born in the 21st century. Only time will tell if it will keep popularity like star wars, lord of the rings, and even marvel/dc. It's easy to know that these themes will do very well in the aftermarket because they have such a huge fan base - and it keeps growing. Like I said. Time will tell if Harry potter will have the same fate. I'm leaning toward no. Like many posters have mentioned above - I agree that we live in a different time. Everyone I knew who loved Harry potter, quickly became a fan of twilight (except the guys of course) and then quickly became a fan of the hunger games. I feel like there are too many similar types of movies/book series (involving fantasy and teenage angst/love) that will come along in the next few years and it will pretty much wash Harry potter into obscurity. I just don't see it gaining the same momentum as all the other great franchises developed throughout the 1900s.

There is too much noise in the world today. Plus... The books/movies were not even that good. (IMO - crucify me of you must. Hahah). But be honest. Do they really compare to marvel/dc, lord of the rings, or star wars. I say no. In my eyes. They compare more to twilight and hunger games (which are both also mediocre - IMO).

pharmjod

My $0.02 worth. To compare Harry Potter and Twilight or Hunger Games does a great disservice to the series. Of all the yoiung adult "literature" of the last 15 years, that series will indeed be considered classics as time goes on. Twilight was utter tripe and will hopefully be long forgotten soon. Hunger games truly is mediocre (though enjoyable).

As to long term investment potential of HP Lego? I think LegoFanTexas nailed it when he discussed several pages back the drop off in value of sets past a certain range (10-15 years). If you are trying to hold LEGO that long, you will probably be disappointed. It's all about finding the sweet spot in the 1-4 year range after a set goes EOL to get a good return. I've been collecting LEGO and buying for resale / profit for going on 16 years now. The sets I have from the 90s are no where near as "valuable" for resale as ones from even a year or two ago. Are there exceptions to this? Of course. But they are exceptions.

I remember in the early days of eBay (member since 1998) seeing sets from the early and mid 90s going for stupid money ie. 8862 back hoe grader went for $400+... I had a lose one that had been built once with box that I sold for that price and this was 1999. Loose and complete now $150 if you're lucky. Point is, from my experience it is better not to look too far down the road when it comes to investing in LEGO. I tend to have a 2 - 3 year horizon, max. Harry potter in 5-10 years? WHO CARES?! I'll be moving on to the next thing and hopefully subsidizing my children's collection and making extra money to boot.

madforLEGO

^ It also depends on re-release of an item, or similar item....
The Backhoe for example has been re done in one form or another... It all depends on demand for the model as well.

Ma1234

^ It also depends on re-release of an item, or similar item....
The Backhoe for example has been re done in one form or another... It all depends on demand for the model as well.

I have been collecting since the start of eBay, too. It is significantly cheaper today than it used to be, and I really can't think of any counter examples. Even great town sets that have no equal - think Airport Shuttle and Launch 'N Load Seaport - or classic Technic sets - like the Airtech Clawrig and Control Centre - are just a lot cheaper to acquire today than a decade ago.

BuriedinBricks

I've been noticing that as I look at sets I missed from the 80s/90s. Most of them can be had for pretty reasonable rates compared to licensed sets I missed in just the last couple of years.

Granted, MISB examples of many of those older sets do not come up very often, so most of my price comparisons come from used/complete sets. But even a classic like a sealed Black Seas Barracuda can be had for far cheaper than a sealed Cafe Corner.

monkeyhanger

For me, there aren't many iconic items in HP that are well represented in Lego, such as vehicles, it's all scenes. You look at a SW ship in lego form and know exactly what it is, people who like SW Lego want THAT ship, and it's got huge playability. What has HP got? A few samey castle-like sets and woodland scene stuff - it's all a bit samey, not many sets stand out to me apart from Diagon Alley. Also, SW has a huge number of desirable characters, even the ones you don't see much of are interesting aliens etc - HP has maybe 10-15 characters you care about seeing in Lego form. Books don't drive Lego, the films do, and they're done.

Lego SW is so popular because it appeals to AFOLs and kids. Right now HP has neither, the HP kids have generally grown out of it (talking from a film perspective here, not books), and it's not old enough to have a huge AFOL fanbase. I don't think it's iconic enough to be anywhere near as popular as SW in 5/10/20/30 years time. I don't look back at He-man and MASK in the same way as SW, and to a lesser extent, Transformers, although I was into them all as a kid.

monkeyhanger

Will people still care enough about HP (movies) in 2 years time to pay 2 or 3 times RRP for a set thats gone EOL? I don't think so, HP Lego interest is waning fast and TLG killed it off at the tight time from their point of view.

CCC

I don't think HP will do that well in the future either. Without the small sets in the shops as "advertising", bigger sets will not appreciate so much.

LegoFanTexas

City House hasn't done too poorly either, it was on clearance at one point as well.

Strange what does well, some sets just sit, others fly off the shelves.

Since I can't predict which does which, I think just buying a bit of everything works for me, that way I'll hit some home runs, and the duds, well... they'll go up sooner or later, or I have more Lego to play with! :)

Matthew

Since I can't predict which does which...

Get a goat, it works for @flump6523

:o)

Farmer_John

Was Bionicle as popular as Ninjago is today? Trying to determine if Ninjago is just trendy, or there's actually something to it. All the kids seem to really like Ninjago...

doriansdad

RE HP....look to the recent past for your answer....this line was discontinued some years ago and most of those sets did very well. Obviously Diagon Alley and Hogwarts castle will go to the moon....remember its not the kids dropping hundreds of dollars on EOLed HP sets...it is adults...and HP has a huge adult fan base. These two sets are money in the bank....Diagon Alley is well regarded in general and is probably the best bet if you want to put all of your eggs on one basket.

doriansdad

City House hasn't done too poorly either, it was on clearance at one point as well.

Strange what does well

Just think what an AFOL is going to want in their city display. City Corner has the really cool yellow bus...pizzeria is great too. Public Transport will do very well after it is EOLed. Apple Tree house? Just another generic model with nothing new or groundbreaking....prob won't do too well....Hillside House looks nice, fits in easily with a city, and has the doorbell...would an AFOL want a working doorbell in their layout?...i would certainly make it unique.

Clearance prices or demand while it is on shelves mean nothing...once a set is EOLed then the real interest begins...everyone wants want they can't have and don't mind dropping $$$ on discontinued, nice looking sets that are integral to their theme of choice.

ktmo

Any thoughts on the Technic Crane Truck 8258. I have one sitting in the box under my bed. I bought it when it was marked down on the S@H years ago when I was coming out of my Dark Ages. I have daughters and I don't think it will appeal to them. Any thoughts on it going up any higher than it is right now @$200 (including shipping).

madforLEGO

^ I think so, Technic takes a while, especially since there are people that are all hording thinking they are going to 'win the lottery' selling on eBay.
I would say you will need to hold on to it for about another few years and it should start going up once supplies start to dwindle.

madforLEGO

Apply tree houses will probably do as well as the creator white houses with red roofs, about double their prices roughly. It may take some time, but I think a lot of people pass over those normally thinking that they will not go for anything... Since it is a white house with drk blue roof (instead of the aforementioned white and Red) technically it should do better, unless the next basic house they come out with is still white with blue roof.

LegoFanTexas

Any thoughts on the Technic Crane Truck 8258. I have one sitting in the box under my bed. I bought it when it was marked down on the S@H years ago when I was coming out of my Dark Ages. I have daughters and I don't think it will appeal to them. Any thoughts on it going up any higher than it is right now @$200 (including shipping).

There are almost 300 of them for sale on Bricklink... While the average price is creeping up, it is going slow.

I see several sellers with 20+ of these on Bricklink for right around $200.

If you want to sell yours for $200 including shipping, and the box is in mint or nearly mint condition, I'd buy it from you.

prevere

I do find it funny that the Apple Tree House has a really crummy apple tree...

Dougout

I think HP is a toss up. We don't know for sure whether new material will be coming out for the series and that is the main problem. I see Rowling taking a break from HP for a while and then bringing it back later on like Lucas did with SW. Why let something good die completely? A HP theme park was recently built in Orlando, SW hasn't done that yet.