Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Bandit

^ well, since the Dino alone seems to be selling on eBay for $30, I'd say its value is $30. ;)

$40 for the rest of the set is about right.

LegoFanTexas

What are the thoughts on a basic set like 7498 - Police Station?

Amazon has it for 23% off right now, $77, and it seems to be a regular seller, but it also seems like they "always" have a police station for sale...

Looking at the older station, Police HQ, it seems to go for about twice original retail, when it sells, the question of course is, does it really sell for $150+?

gmpirate

^ I bought all I could at 50% but I wouldn't touch them otherwise. I've seen these types of police sets go above RRP when they are out of stock but its never at a point where it made sense to buy them at RRP or small discount. The forest police set is not exactly a direct replacement so there might be some better short term appreciation when 7498 goes EOL. So "if" the forest police station is the replacement it might do well this Christmas. Given its a short term thing, since they keeping making new ones, I wouldn't risk money here. I'd rather just buy 50 more of something I know will appreciate or won't be replaced soon.

JP3804

@LegoFanTexas Yes, Should I have bought more? That's always the question.

prevere

The real large city set ticket is the hospital. The one from 2006 #7892 is a poor construction - having just built it recently, but still commands triple original retail or more.

When the new one comes out (this year I believe?) - stock up.

Hospitals are only done every 5 years or less.

madforLEGO

^-I always thought that Hospital was never worth what they were charging and I think a lot of others did as well, and also though there will be another right away... Oops
I still think it looks like garbage but I am a bit biased as I have the Dacta Hospital and the Emergency Medical Center

Farmer_John

I suggest that all the Winter sets will do extremely well over time after EOL. Specifically, the Winter Bakery set will be EOL'd this year, so picking those up on sale between now and the end of the year would likely be profitable. Furthermore, the Winter Toy Shop will likely reach $150/set by year-end, which is up almost $100/set after being EOL'd.

fyrmedhatt

The real large city set ticket is the hospital. The one from 2006 #7892 is a poor construction - having just built it recently, but still commands triple original retail or more.

When the new one comes out (this year I believe?) - stock up.

Hospitals are only done every 5 years or less.

Amen to that! Every AFOL who's buidling a city wants a hospital, so it's no wonder that even this rather lousy set is valuable, and it will be the same with the new one: it's not that great but will be valuable in the aftermarket.

That is until we get that modular hospital.....

prevere

What are the odds we get a Modular hospital before the 2012 version EOLs?

30% maybe?

LegoFanTexas

Wouldn't a modular clinic make more sense? Would a hospital really fit the modular theme?

What about a Pet Shop style split, with a clinic on one side and something else on the other?

samiam391

Like @LegoFanTexas, I really can't see a flat-out modular hospital being done by LEGO. There's just something about it.
In general, I don't think LEGO will do any type of hospital modular... that being said, LEGO will probably be releasing information on a new hospital modular tomorrow..

prevere

Timely discussion then.

To get psychological about it - hospitals aren't exactly the happiest places in the world (besides babies being born). They are more complicated from a child's perspective - lots of rooms and with strange things going on inside. It smells and everyone is generally unhappy - that's my take.

That doesn't make for a great toy.

Police and fire stations are much cooler and more fun to play with. More action.

Rescue vehicles? Sure. Cool. Helicopters and ambulances. But there's something about a hospital that has Lego putting it on their permanent backburner.

I'm sure there are other psychological reasons we haven't seen a library or school yet. Other city staples. The bottom line there is the lack of appeal to boys.

LegoFanTexas

An old time school house, the version from 100 years ago, is screaming to be done in a modular... :)

A library? Yes, I can see how a major one could be cool, but I don't see that one happening.

*raises hand* I predict that 2013 will bring a Police HQ modular, and that it will be a corner...

madforLEGO

Timely discussion then.

To get psychological about it - hospitals aren't exactly the happiest places in the world (besides babies being born). They are more complicated from a child's perspective - lots of rooms and with strange things going on inside. It smells and everyone is generally unhappy - that's my take.

That doesn't make for a great toy.

Police and fire stations are much cooler and more fun to play with. More action.

Rescue vehicles? Sure. Cool. Helicopters and ambulances. But there's something about a hospital that has Lego putting it on their permanent backburner.

I'm sure there are other psychological reasons we haven't seen a library or school yet. Other city staples. The bottom line there is the lack of appeal to boys.

Kinda interesting that one of the Dacta sets for Child Education was a hospital.
I believe these were also at hospitals as well, probably the most comprehensive Hospital Model LEGO has produced.
The new hospital coming out is smaller than the old Emergency Medical center I believe.

CCC

If not a hospital, then what about a vet? To fix all the poor animals sold in the pet shop and subsequently run over by fire engines from the neighbouring fire station.

prevere

They kinda have that with the Heartlake Vet Center - part of the Friends series.

UKtsumi

So the winter creator sets are now unavailable on LEGO S@H UK. Does that make them all EOL now? If so the 10216 Winter Bakery is only €39.30 at amzon.de this is a good investment right??

CCC

^ Plus 7.80 postage (or 8.40 for two) for those in the UK.

sidersdd

^^ Not necessarily. They did this with Winter Toy Shop with its first year. It dropped off, then came back.

UKtsumi

^ yes i believe it's just cost me £74.50 total for 2 , Im happy with that.

prevere

Winter Toy Shop officially retired this past Nov - a 25-month run. Connecting the dots - that would mean the Bakery is EOL this coming Nov (Black Friday being the last day).

But history does not always repeat.

UKtsumi

^ ^^Ok thanks, even if its not gone for good, this coming christmas will be its last then... I just need to find the holiday train cheap to complete my collection.... no chance there I think!

pstrickler27

^ I agree with the Winter Series timeline.. Bakery should reach EOL after this holiday season.. and we should expect to see a new Winter Village playset sometime soon.. I can't wait to see what it is..

I think these will do very well in the aftermarket.. I'm picking up a few Bakerys this year.

Farmer_John

Yep...my wife and I are fans of the Winter Series and will grab a couple more - primarily for the kids "leaving the home" gift. :-)

The Winter Bakery is a nice set and will be gone by year's end. I would recommend picking up what you want for the price you want before they go EOL in December timeframe. BOGOs are a great opportunity to get'm on the cheap. Amazon also has periodic deals.

As a side note, I have noticed that the Winter Post Office is listed with a RRP of $59.99 on Amazon, when in fact it is $69.99 at Lego. Amazon will sometimes list the Post Office as $50-55, which is a good deal based on Lego prices. FYI...

UKtsumi

Wouldn't a modular clinic make more sense? Would a hospital really fit the modular theme?

What about a Pet Shop style split, with a clinic on one side and something else on the other?

or a more realistic Estate agents next to a charity shop..

cheshirecat

@pstrickler27 There was a discussion somewhere that the next winter set was a cottage (chalet I hope) and considerably more expensive than the previous ones.

prevere

We built the Toy Shop as a family at Thanksgiving. Sitting around the dining room table taking turns step-by-step. It was great fun, and better than everyone sleeping after eating all that turkey.

We will definitely repeat this year with the bakery.

pstrickler27

^ My girlfriend and I built the Toy Shop, Bakery, and Post Office in one day.. she isn't a FOL at all.. but she enjoyed herself.. she likes the CMFs as well.. I make her come with me to the Lego Store to feel up the packages.. I can buy two sets that way.. she is pretty embarrassed with my hobby, but supports it when she sees my sales in the aftermarket.. but the Winter series was a great experience for both of us.. I plan on making it a holiday tradition.

Farmer_John

Any thoughts on the next near-term EOL set coming up? We just lost the FB and I know the DS makes everyone's short list, but what other larger set EOL potentials are around the corner?

I can think of several for 2013, but am a bit stuck on larger sets scheduled to be EOL'd before the end of 2012.

brclark82

We just lost the fire brigade? (im guessing that is what your referring to with fb)...not yet we haven't! Im guessing the screwed up batch kept this around about an extra 6 months than it would have been otherwise.

http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Fire-Brigade-10197

brclark82

Besides the fb and ds going this summer, what are everyone's thoughts on these sets retiring this summer/fall

MMV
First round of Architecture (fallingwater etc)
Motorized Excavator
Apple Tree House (most other creator houses have done well aftermarket)

And what are the chances the architecture stuff will appreciate?

LegoFanTexas

Besides the fb and ds going this summer, what are everyone's thoughts on these sets retiring this summer/fall

I'm no longer convinced either set is going out this summer... maybe this fall or after Christmas...

MMV - This should go out this summer, with LOTR coming out. We may also see Joust make a very early exit, which is why I already have two of them in the closet. :)

First round of Architecture (fallingwater etc) - Yes, time for these to go, there are many new ones coming out.

Motorized Excavator - Almost 100% this is going out after Christmas, if it ever goes on sale, this is a pretty sure thing in such a case, IMHO.

Apple Tree House (most other creator houses have done well aftermarket) - yes, they have, but this one is smaller and... less special... I have a few I picked up on sale, but I wouldn't pay full rate.

mathew

The architecture series will probably do well long term. Resellers are not hording them like the modulars which means there will be less supply. With that said demand will be much lower too. Part of the problem with the architecture series is that they are already premium priced for the set size. They do have great packaging though and the instruction manuals are very nice. Like any other set they will be worth a lot more if you still have the box and instructions in nice shape.

mathew

Apple Tree House (most other creator houses have done well aftermarket) - yes, they have, but this one is smaller and... less special... I have a few I picked up on sale, but I wouldn't pay full rate.

This set just doesn't do anything for me. It's so generic. I wish Lego would up the detail on the Creator houses to bring them up to the same standards as the modular buildings.

prevere

I like the idea of the Architecture sets doing well. But reality is only a few will really have a chance to grow in the aftermarket - Whitehouse & FallingWater.

We could see a fire sale on these before EOL. They have to have a ton of these in the warehouse. At 50% off, I'd bite on a few of them.

hoyatables

At 50% off they also start to make great gifts.

cynthilina

Its hard to place any value on any of these legos. Like a poster said a few pages back. It all depends on what Lego does and how long the sets run. For example the next 10 years of Star wars will with no doubt bring remakes, devaluing some of the sets out there. Take for example the Malevolence coming out this fall. Its the first time its been released however it looks unfinished. Also like the Tantive 4 will probably be a UCS at some point. I expect to see several remakes. The only thing I have seen do really well are the massive UCS sets, SD, Tantive 4 and the like. The Marvel stuff will probably have a good short payoff this xmas but will get overstocked Immediately after. For me who buys the sets not for profit but more as a trade method this is perfect. The more overstocked they are the more likely there will be a discount.

Resale value is a major gamble for anything, Limited supply for high demand is the payoff. And unfortunately Lego does not let on to any limited numbers because if a set is selling good they will produce more. Right now what would make the Lego sets more valuable after market is the current RRP of those sets or mini figs. The UCS stuff is more expensive and thus people will tend not to buy them or buy very little but the demand is still in place. This is where sets like Tantive 4 and the Star Destroyer sets cash in.

prof1515

This set just doesn't do anything for me. It's so generic. I wish Lego would up the detail on the Creator houses to bring them up to the same standards as the modular buildings.

Then it would be basically a modular building. They're different types of sets for different consumer profiles. One size doesn't fit all.

Personally, I agree with the lack of appeal of the Creator houses but that's because I'm not their target audience. I think we can all agree Creator sets are better than Bionicle or Galidor or other crap like that at least. :-)

stephenvw

Besides the fb and ds going this summer, what are everyone's thoughts on these sets retiring this summer/fall

I'm no longer convinced either set is going out this summer... maybe this fall or after Christmas...

I believe FB will be out this summer considering no major retailer has had them in stock for quite some time. I am not sure about the DS, but we may get some more "info" May the Fourth if it goes on sale and for how much. I only have one DS and I honestly won't be buying anymore, especially on May the Fourth. Even if it's discounted to $300 it would be better to buyer 3 sets at $100, making separate orders, and get three of the promo minifigs instead of one. These figs will probably be worth around $25 like last years promo fig thus giving you $50 more back. It's only a thought for you. Also, the DS has been out for almost 4 years and there are a ton of people who have them.

pstrickler27

^ I believe Fire Brigade will end around the holidays at the earliest.. it has gone out of stock on Amazon about 10 times already and has come back.. that's really not a great indication anymore.. at least not for the Fire Brigade.. in terms of other retailers being out of stock.. I've only ever seen it at the Lego Store (which still has them - in store and online) and on Amazon..

I've heard from several people (Lego customer service and even some sales reps) that it should be around a lot longer than the others (because it is so popular).. I'm waiting until Christmas to stock up.. I already have 10 sitting in my spare room.. haha

I really hope Market Village reaches EOL soon.. I have too many of them taking up a lot of space.. I though they would be out when the Joust came along.. but I was wrong.. Hopefully Lord of the Rings will do away with both of them..

I have collected all the Architecture sets up until this point (I was really betting on them being worth a lot in the aftermarket).. so far.. no dice.. but I think some of them will outperform.. mainly the White House and Fallingwater.. and maybe even the Farnsworth House (which is my favorite)..

I think the Police and Firefighters series are way passed due to reach EOL.. considering the Forest versions have been out for so long.. I really thought they would be gone by now.. it seems like TLG is trying to extend the lifetime of all their series (aside from the ones that flop).. maybe they have finally taken notice to the aftermarket prices and realize that people are still willing to buy even after a number of years.. just a thought..

fyrmedhatt

^

I think the Police and Firefighters series are way passed due to reach EOL.. considering the Forest versions have been out for so long.. I really thought they would be gone by now.. it seems like TLG is trying to extend the lifetime of all their series (aside from the ones that flop).. maybe they have finally taken notice to the aftermarket prices and realize that people are still willing to buy even after a number of years.. just a thought..

These sets stick around because they sell like gangbusters. The latest police station only came out last year, but was Lego's highest grossing set of the year, so it's no wonder they still have it on the market. I mean, Lego had the same fire truck available for over six years, from 2005-2011, so they don't get rid of things that are truly popular.

prevere

Besides the fb and ds going this summer, what are everyone's thoughts on these sets retiring this summer/fall

MMV
First round of Architecture (fallingwater etc)
Motorized Excavator
Apple Tree House (most other creator houses have done well aftermarket)

And what are the chances the architecture stuff will appreciate?

There's a couple on the radar that should be mentioned.
Shuttle Expedition - out in June 2011, but it's a fixed version of Shuttle Adventure, which came out in 2010. So actually, could this be EOL this winter?

Imperial Shuttle UCS - out in 2010, a chance that it's EOL this winter as well?

thornie

Can anyone speculate as to the EOL for Town hall? I know it just came out this year, but I am just coming out of the dark ages and just starting my collecting. I've picked up all of the "in production" modulars with the exception of Town Hall. I'm looking to hold off on getting Town Hall until sometime next year, so I can focus on hunting down EOL'd Kingdoms sets. Am I safe on holding off?

Renny

I can't imagine the Town Hall modular would disappear within a year and a half. You should be safe.

pstrickler27

@thornie.. you are very safe.. Town Hall should be around until 2014 or later.. haha

madforLEGO

This set just doesn't do anything for me. It's so generic. I wish Lego would up the detail on the Creator houses to bring them up to the same standards as the modular buildings.

Then it would be basically a modular building. They're different types of sets for different consumer profiles. One size doesn't fit all.

Personally, I agree with the lack of appeal of the Creator houses but that's because I'm not their target audience. I think we can all agree Creator sets are better than Bionicle or Galidor or other crap like that at least. :-)

Well LEGO already did do this with a creator set 4954 Town House. The problem is it did not sell very well (obviously as they have gone up pretty good in price) and they never went on sale eitehr (which I think is one reason why they never sold well)

sidersdd

^ I believe Fire Brigade will end around the holidays at the earliest.. it has gone out of stock on Amazon about 10 times already and has come back.. that's really not a great indication anymore.. at least not for the Fire Brigade.. in terms of other retailers being out of stock.. I've only ever seen it at the Lego Store (which still has them - in store and online) and on Amazon..

Target still sells it:
http://www.target.com/p/LEGO-Creator-Fire-Brigade-10197/-/A-13782400

TRU had a few during the last BOGO (what, 2-3 weeks ago?).

mathew

Amazon briefly had Fire Brigade back in stock a week or so ago. S@H has pretty much had it in stock for the past month. I would think it's probably going to be around through the fall and possibly winter.

mathew

This set just doesn't do anything for me. It's so generic. I wish Lego would up the detail on the Creator houses to bring them up to the same standards as the modular buildings.

Then it would be basically a modular building. They're different types of sets for different consumer profiles. One size doesn't fit all.

They could just make them as detailed as the Winter sets and it would be a step up. Of course part of the charm of the Creator houses is that you can build multiple models and too much detail would limit that. However simple things like a bed or kitchen set would help.

thornie

I was at the LEGO store earlier today in Manhattan and they had tons of FB. Two whole shelves filled with them. MMV on the other hand only had two or three sets on the shelf with Joust dominating the rest of the rack. Take that for what it's worth.