Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

pxchris

Everything I've heard was that POBB was being retired completely this year.

jnscoelho

I would say it's gone for good.

Astrobricks

Its “EXIT” date in the BS database is Dec 31 2021. Although there isn’t a lot of data yet on how accurate those exit dates really are.

KungFuKenny

binaryeye said:

I've been out of the LEGO loop for 5+ years, so apologies if the answer to this question is obvious. Is it likely 21322 Pirates of Barracuda Bay is permanently discontinued, or is it simply out of stock for the holiday season?

Multiple sources have it being discontinued by the end of 2021, so if you can find it in a local B&M shop or online for retail I would grab one…

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.brickfanatics.com/lego-pirates-of-barracuda-bay-retiring-soon/amp/

Onebricktoomany

Found this just now.  Won’t receive until after holidays.  Still regular price though.

Onebricktoomany

and it’s gone...

LegoEveryone

I wonder how long 10261 Roller Coaster was in stock at 20% off. I would have purchased it at that price. 

BrickByBrick

not at all as far as I know. Maybe in certain stores.

madforLEGO

LegoEveryone said:

I wonder how long 10261 Roller Coaster was in stock at 20% off. I would have purchased it at that price. 

It wasn't in stock online when that discount appeared. It was sold out some time ago online. I guess anything is possible and it briefly appeared back in stock at some point, but I doubt it. LEGO S@H has a habit of showing discounts for sets long sold out online.

ReesesPieces

I feel like the discounted price for sold out sets are for return purposes when people try to return gift items without receipts.

FireFox31

Is there any indication that #40426 Christmas Wreath will come back next year?  It could easily be a perennial set, released each Christmas for many years.

If it's not coming back, maybe it will be cheaper to buy in the summer.  It's currently $50 on eBay now, up $15 from its $35 MSRP.  Wow, I hate missing good sets.

PDelahanty

ReesesPieces said:

I feel like the discounted price for sold out sets are for return purposes when people try to return gift items without receipts.

I think those are the prices for any remaining in stock in retail stores...and they make the online price match.

Bumblepants

Man the #40567 Forestmen Hideout is already selling $50+ day one. I knew it was going to be popular but this could really take off especially if production is low.

CCC

It is amazing really, 74 have already sold on BL (in just 22 transactions), 63 of them within Europe (or at least, in Euros). I guess Americans are slightly later in the day  as only one US seller has them on BL so far.

PDelahanty

CCC said:

It is amazing really, 74 have already sold on BL (in just 22 transactions), 63 of them within Europe (or at least, in Euros). I guess Americans are slightly later in the day  as only one US seller has them on BL so far.

We slept in today.

catwrangler

Any predictions on how long #10273 Haunted House will hang around? I'm looking at all the sets tagged Fairground Collection on the database and I can't really interpret by comparison how much longer it's likely to last. Since it's still here now it seems like it'd be silly not to let it run through another Halloween season, but I haven't bought much in the past few years so I've lost what instinct I had for predicting these things.

I'm anticipating some major household expenses closer to now than October, and trying to work out whether I can get away with waiting to pick it up, or should just sell some other sets and get it now to avoid disappointment. 

madforLEGO

My gut feeling is the run is the typical 2 years and the Haunted house is gone this year, plus I would not be surprised if LEGO 'hardship' price increases in August affect the price as well.

catwrangler

Thanks - I'd forgotten about the price changes coming, so all in all it sounds like I need to get this thing sooner rather than later...

madforLEGO

catwrangler said:

Thanks - I'd forgotten about the price changes coming, so all in all it sounds like I need to get this thing sooner rather than later...

Yeah, now you got me thinking about if I want one..lol

stlux

catwrangler said:

Thanks - I'd forgotten about the price changes coming, so all in all it sounds like I need to get this thing sooner rather than later...

#10273 is not on the list of sets getting price increases in September: StoneWars list.
Neither is it on the 2022 EOL list. 

This is not a 100% guarantee that the set will still be available next year, but I wouldn't go out and panic buy it either.

CCC

Buy when the next decent promo is on (the forestman set is meant to be coming back in August).

jcb193

What are price increases expected to be?  Any list of what is affected?

madforLEGO

https://brickset.com/article/79374/list-of-price-increases-in-the-usa

It sounds like there are more (as I heard some, if not all, Speed Champion sets will also have a price increase).

BrickByBrick

So far the single car sets aren't getting increases, the $30 mercedes 2 pack is going up to $35 and the $40 aston martin two pack is going to be $45

arathemis

Which is the next modular to get retired? AS or the bookshop?

FollowsClosely

Given that the price went up on AS and not on BS, I would say Bookshop goes next. But its all a crap-shoot.

Onebricktoomany

FollowsClosely said:

Given that the price went up on AS and not on BS, I would say Bookshop goes next. But its all a crap-shoot.

Bookshop went up to $199.99 from $179.99.

autolycus

arathemis said:

Which is the next modular to get retired? AS or the bookshop?

Both are currently expected to retire at the end of 2023. Both saw price increases today in North America and Australia, and most of the bigger sets that are expected to retire this year did not -- not that I said most, not all.

madforLEGO

autolycus said:

arathemis said:

Which is the next modular to get retired? AS or the bookshop?

Both are currently expected to retire at the end of 2023. Both saw price increases today in North America and Australia, and most of the bigger sets that are expected to retire this year did not -- not that I said most, not all.

I thought I saw the end date of the AS for this year, not next.. unless they moved it?

iwybs

Santa's Sleigh was such a great set.  I wasn't able to get it last year, but I was planning to buy it along with Santa's Visit in, say, October of this year to have it in time for Christmas.  Little did I suspect that it was going to vanish from Shop at Home at the end of July to make way for the new Christmas sets.  It seemed like the kind of set that would be sold for years and years to come.  Now it's going for $60 to hundreds of dollars on Bricklink.  I realize it's just a simple matter of supply and demand, but is there any chance that someone would be willing to part with a used copy of 40499 for close to its original RRP of $35? I live in the western US.  Thanks!

kbw

Is the Porsche 911 10295 retiring this year or has anyone seen anything indicating it’s on the chopping block?

madforLEGO

kbw said:

Is the Porsche 911 10295 retiring this year or has anyone seen anything indicating it’s on the chopping block?

My gut feeling is the #10265 Mustang would be retired before the Porsche.

PapaBear

#75252 showing a ship date of November 4th, backordered in EU too.  Do you think it gets restocked?

Farmer_John

I wonder what the re-release of LotR will do to the resell value of the old sets from the 2012 timeframe?

arathemis

I hope they'll drop, so I can get some. 
Bought a bulk lot 2 weeks ago in which I found a Boromir, golum, a headless Sam (but with hair), a head with hair of frodo, pippin's torso with head but no hair, a moria orc without hair, elrond without hair, and gimly head.
So now I gotta complete them. And get their friends too. (and enemies if I find them) 

sipuss

I don't see them dropping if Rivendell is all we get from LotR. I actually wouldn't be surprised if they went even higher.

FollowsClosely

Old LotR set will only go higher with the release of Rivendell.

arathemis

I saw advertised on the local Craigslist equivalent some LOTR MISB sets. For the Moria set they were asking the rrp price of the lion castle. Where could it increase more? It's been listed for the past year and hasn't moved. 
What do you think it's worth more? Considering the castle also provides VIP points, maybe a gwp, and if lucky enough maybe a sale on BF/christmas time. 

560Heliport

Surely the new Rivendell will draw attention to the old LOTR sets, so I'd be surprised if they went down in price- unless they do a wave of new sets, smaller and cheaper then Rivendell. 
And if the Mines of Moria set is what someone wants, the Lion Castle won't substitute.

BrickByBrick

I think the only things that will go down in price from the old LOTR sets are the frodo Sam pippin boromir and merry figs as those are all figs that have pretty direct replacements available in rivendell. The old gandalf gimli and legolas figs might go down but they're already relatively cheap. Aragon will probably go down a little but not as much because the new fig isn't a direct replacement. I'd guess everything else is likely to get more expensive

Also unless the figs increase in value the old council of elrond set will probably stop appreciating in value at least until rivendell is retired 

pxchris

I don't think that anything LotR related, sets or figs, will go down in price. If anything, I expect them all to rise even more.

WesterBricks

Remember what happened to the Spider-Man figs from 2003, after No Way Home was released?

Marshallmario

   I own 2 of the blue and red with the neck bracket. Why did they go up so high in value if that's what you mean?

Bumblepants

Idea: We dust this old heartwarming thread one last time November first or thereabouts and post memes and gifs and give the forum a proper sendoff. Perhaps beat a dead horse or two?

FollowsClosely

I wasted so many hours in this thread over the years...

CCC

I have found the prices have held up very well for smaller LOTR/Hobbit sets like Witch King and Wizard Battle. I had been selling each for £50 up to about a year ago. Once it was obvious Rivendell was coming, I upped them to £70 and they have still sold. Not bad for sets that amazon clearanced at £6 and £5 respectively.

Medium sets are also holding up well. Even the old small Rivendell set - The Council of Elrond - hasn't really been impacted much. I sold my last one of those a few months back for £120. If that hasn't been impacted by a similar subject bigger set, I doubt other sets will.

I haven't tried to sell the bigger ones recently (Helm's Deep, Mines of Moria, Black Gate, etc or the Hobbit sets such as the Bag End, Lonely Mountain or The Battle of Five Armies), although those prices still seem pretty high.

I parted out a lot of my investment sets and of course the minifigures have been doing incredibly well and are the main driving force in the set prices. Figures like the old Aragorn in his brown outfit has kept a reasonable price despite the new version being similar and even the Dimensions version of Gimli has been selling for over a tenner.

I wish I had bought more copies of the Lonely Mountain when they were £50. Smaug has gone crazy now. I thought I did well at the time to buy the set for £50 and sell just Smaug within a week for £50. All those free bricks and minifigures! But these days he is probably £250. Luckily I kept some copies back.

LOTR and Hobbit figures were so cheap for ages where people had bought the sets for the bricks and not wanted the figures, especially duplicates of core characters. Even as late as 2016 I was buying up new figures at under £2 each as people didn't want them. How times have changed. 

Bumblepants

WesterBricks

It feels like a lifetime ago…