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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,289
    ^ I worry about this.  I don't like the prospect of scrambling for a Batmobile and a Batwing...
    Fizyx
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
         Thanks so much for the post. I really wanted that Nutcracker and I don’t think I would have noticed it without your help! This is such a great place!
    Just get Brickhound app to track OOO items.
    Marshallmario
  • KungFuKennyKungFuKenny Somewhere between Ice Station Odyssey and FabulandMember Posts: 2,102
    edited August 16
    According to Brickfanatics, #21322 Pirates of Barracuda Bay will retire by the end of the year (and not in 2022 as previously planned)…
    https://www.brickfanatics.com/lego-pirates-of-barracuda-bay-retiring-soon/
    That would be a less than 2 year lifespan, but I’m not sure if that means it didn’t sell well or if Lego is trying to make room after so much Covid related backlog.  The optimist in me would say that it’s to make room for a new Pirates theme, but that’s probably unrealistic…
    Bumblepantsautolycuspxchris
  • KungFuKennyKungFuKenny Somewhere between Ice Station Odyssey and FabulandMember Posts: 2,102
    edited August 16
    1989 Batmobile is now "Temporarily out of stock" at [email protected] (in the UK at least) - is it likely to be going EOL soon?
    SumoLego said:
    ^ I worry about this.  I don't like the prospect of scrambling for a Batmobile and a Batwing...
    Looks like #76139 may be on the retirement list as well (Batwing looks safe for now).  Rumors are that the ‘89 BM will be pushed out to make room for a UCS Tumbler…
    SumoLego
  • 560Heliport560Heliport Twin Cities, MN, USAMember Posts: 2,620
    We need a Batcopter like we need a Thanoscopter. Am I being sarcastic? Maybe, maybe not! :)
    gmonkey76BumblepantsKungFuKennyPDelahantyVorpalRyu
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,833
    1989 Batmobile is now "Temporarily out of stock" at [email protected] (in the UK at least) - is it likely to be going EOL soon?
    SumoLego said:
    ^ I worry about this.  I don't like the prospect of scrambling for a Batmobile and a Batwing...
    Looks like #76139 may be on the retirement list as well (Batwing looks safe for now).  Rumors are that the ‘89 BM will be pushed out to make room for a UCS Tumbler…
    I doubt it will be be a UCS set. Another UCE maybe, but not UCS.
  • autolycusautolycus US-SEMember Posts: 914
    According to Brickfanatics, #21322 Pirates of Barracuda Bay will retire by the end of the year (and not in 2022 as previously planned)…
    https://www.brickfanatics.com/lego-pirates-of-barracuda-bay-retiring-soon/
    That would be a less than 2 year lifespan, but I’m not sure if that means it didn’t sell well or if Lego is trying to make room after so much Covid related backlog.  The optimist in me would say that it’s to make room for a new Pirates theme, but that’s probably unrealistic…
    A lot of Ideas sets have retired at the end of the year following release, so it's not completely out of "normal" for PoBB to retire this year. I hope it was a successful yet because I want more sets like it, and a small pirate line would be great (maybe just a couple new small sets per year and a ship that lasts 2-3), but I'm definitely not going to read anything into PoBB retiring this year. There are a lot of large Ideas sets out right now and still some more on the way.
    gmonkey76Yellowcastle
  • bricktuarybricktuary Krakozhia (temporarily stuck in London)Member Posts: 869
    edited August 16
    I always assumed Lego Ideas sets had some sort of numerical limit rather than a specific temporal lifespan, so the more popular sets went EOL quicker (like Saturn V, although that was then reprieved).

    Although now I type it I realise I've probably made that up.
    AstrobricksYellowcastlePDelahanty
  • FireFox31FireFox31 NH, USAMember Posts: 109
    The 1.5 year lifespan for Ideas sets seems to not apply to popular sets.  Saturn V had 2.5 years (then the reissue), Tree House had 2 years and may keep going, and Dinosaur Fossils is approaching 2 years.  I tried to wait for these sets during double points, GWP, or a sale, but would up buying with no deal because I thought they'd retire, and they didn't.  Perhaps I should just get Pirates now with the boat GWP and not push my luck.
    560HeliportYellowcastle
  • autolycusautolycus US-SEMember Posts: 914
    FireFox31 said:
    The 1.5 year lifespan for Ideas sets seems to not apply to popular sets.  Saturn V had 2.5 years (then the reissue), Tree House had 2 years and may keep going, and Dinosaur Fossils is approaching 2 years.  I tried to wait for these sets during double points, GWP, or a sale, but would up buying with no deal because I thought they'd retire, and they didn't.  Perhaps I should just get Pirates now with the boat GWP and not push my luck.
    I think Tree House and Dinosaur Fossils might be the exception since they would normally have retired in 2020, which ended up being a year of a lot of extended availability (see e.g. Hogwarts Great Hall) due to COVID effects on both supply and demand.
    KungFuKenny
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,037
    ^ I have been out of the reselling game for almost two years now. This set makes me want to get back in. This has winner written all over it!
    Yellowcastle
  • flordflord CanadaMember Posts: 793
    Anybody know why in Ninjago the Jay DX minifigure is so expensive compared to the other DX minifigs? And while I'm on the subject, anybody know the most valuable Ninjago minifig? Serpentine characters I would guess.
    SumoLegoKungFuKenny
  • BrickByBrickBrickByBrick Massachusetts, USAMember Posts: 706
    I believe Killow is up there with most valuable ninjago minifigs along with the overlord from rebooted. Cheapest killow on BL right now in new condition is $87, cheapest overlord is $71.

    As for Jay DX, he was only in 2 sets, both of which I believe were retail exclusive so he was just harder to find. I think the other 3 DX figs all had spinner sets but Jay didn't because his spinner was in #2519 Skeleton Bowling

    Also Lloyd DX from the target cube is up there with most expensive ninjago figs, upwards of $60 new
    560HeliportKungFuKennyMarshallmario
  • KungFuKennyKungFuKenny Somewhere between Ice Station Odyssey and FabulandMember Posts: 2,102
    edited August 21
    flord said:
    Anybody know why in Ninjago the Jay DX minifigure is so expensive compared to the other DX minifigs? And while I'm on the subject, anybody know the most valuable Ninjago minifig? Serpentine characters I would guess.
    As for Jay DX, he was only in 2 sets, both of which I believe were retail exclusive so he was just harder to find. I think the other 3 DX figs all had spinner sets but Jay didn't because his spinner was in #2519 Skeleton Bowling

    Also Lloyd DX from the target cube is up there with most expensive ninjago figs, upwards of $60 new
    Jay DX came in Skeleton Bowling (where I got mine) and the Lightning Dragon set.  The problem was that Skeleton Bowling was a (TRU?) exclusive and the Dragon was only for sale a short time (less than 3 months in the US!).  In contrast, the notoriously short-lived Zombies set lasted over a month longer in the US…

    Luckily I was able to pick up the Target cubes at retail…
    Yellowcastle
  • BrickByBrickBrickByBrick Massachusetts, USAMember Posts: 706
    ^I didn't realize it was available for such a short time. It was also retail exclusive at some store, not sure which one but it has the limited edition yellow stripe on the box that they did back then. 
  • flordflord CanadaMember Posts: 793
    Ugh. I forgot about Lloyd DX. Weird that Killow is so expensive. I wonder what would cause the demand.
  • 1x11x1 Member Posts: 142
    I was looking at PoBB and noticed there is now a field in the set details for "retiring on".  It says 31/12/21.  Does anyone know where this date is taken from?

    Pate5346
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 4,567
    edited August 24
    1x1 said:
    I was looking at PoBB and noticed there is now a field in the set details for "retiring on".  It says 31/12/21.  Does anyone know where this date is taken from?

    Apparently it actually comes from Lego. Some discussion here:
    https://forum.brickset.com/discussion/36551/retirement-date
    KungFuKenny
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,833
    flord said:
    Ugh. I forgot about Lloyd DX. Weird that Killow is so expensive. I wonder what would cause the demand.
    Just like Star Wars, there are "collect them all" collectors of Ninjago minifigs.
    SumoLego560HeliportFizyxKerre
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,289
    CCC said:
    Just like Star Wars, there are "collect them all" collectors of Ninjago minifigs.
    Who are these people?!?!?
  • FizyxFizyx ColoradoMember Posts: 1,136
    CCC said:
    flord said:
    Ugh. I forgot about Lloyd DX. Weird that Killow is so expensive. I wonder what would cause the demand.
    Just like Star Wars, there are "collect them all" collectors of Ninjago minifigs.

    Say what you will about the builds/sets, but Ninjago absolutely has some of the coolest/most creative minifigs that LEGO has released. Not all of them are super cool, but once you've started collecting a significant number of minifigs from a theme because they're so cool... well, it's not a huge leap to collecting all of them :P
    Bumblepants560HeliportKungFuKennygmonkey76ReesesPiecesCharmiefcbitsnotmeAanchirKerre
  • SMCSMC UKMember Posts: 2,120
    Is this thread going to reawaken with the blue fiat and the shoe of limited stickers?
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,232
    ^ Never tell me the odds. :o)
  • 560Heliport560Heliport Twin Cities, MN, USAMember Posts: 2,620
    Fizyx said:
    CCC said:
    flord said:
    Ugh. I forgot about Lloyd DX. Weird that Killow is so expensive. I wonder what would cause the demand.
    Just like Star Wars, there are "collect them all" collectors of Ninjago minifigs.

    Say what you will about the builds/sets, but Ninjago absolutely has some of the coolest/most creative minifigs that LEGO has released. Not all of them are super cool, but once you've started collecting a significant number of minifigs from a theme because they're so cool... well, it's not a huge leap to collecting all of them :P
    Say what you will about the minifigures, but Ninjago has some of the coolest/most creative sets! :)
    AstrobricksMr_Cross
  • LEGOMAD73LEGOMAD73 STAFFORDSHIREMember Posts: 157
    see Corner Garage and Roller Coaster are now marked as "Retiring Soon"
    SumoLegoKungFuKenny
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,289
    ^ Not a coincidence I just bought both of these...

    I'm not getting Town Hall'ed again.
    FizyxKungFuKennyBumblepantsMarshallmario
  • KungFuKennyKungFuKenny Somewhere between Ice Station Odyssey and FabulandMember Posts: 2,102
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Not a coincidence I just bought both of these...

    I'm not getting Town Hall'ed again.
    The Roller Coaster was one of those sets I was supposed to get at a heavy discount on the Inside Tour, first in 2020, then this postponed to this year, and now 2022…  (#!*@!! pandemic). Now it looks like like I’ll need to pay retail or pass on it…
    SumoLego
  • vanvonfullvanvonfull washingtonMember Posts: 183
    edited September 18
    Picked up corner garage today. Fomo. 
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,232
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Not a coincidence I just bought both of these...

    I'm not getting Town Hall'ed again.
    How many road plates this set you back?
    gmonkey76560HeliportSumoLego
  • autolycusautolycus US-SEMember Posts: 914
    Ugg… I still need Corner Garage and the UCS A-Wing. I really want to hold out for Black Friday in case there’s a good sale plus GWP. But it’s such a gamble!

    I may just cave and buy them in October. Decisions are so hard!!
  • ShropshireShropshire UKMember Posts: 552
    ^ @autolycus it's a bit or a lot of an abuse of TLGs generosity depending on your perspective ... but remember they do free 90 day returns.... you could always buy one now, keep safe... and if black friday yealds something better you can either return the first (or 2nd as the 1st if any condition issues)  or ask CS to make it good without returning  i.e. "you realise I could just buy now, and send the previous one back". I myself wouldn't do this as it ties up stock for others etc.. but it's an option. Just if do watch out for the rules on not refunding paypal and giving a gift card instead etc if you return to the store or something like that.
    itsnotmeautolycus
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 4,567
    ^ Or if you get lucky, keep both and sell the second on at a likely profit after retirement.
    autolycusKungFuKenny
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,289
    How many road plates this set you back?
    I think you have it backwards.  How many roadplates would I accept in exchange for a Rollercoaster?

    Although, I like the idea of roadplates as LEGO currency.
    560HeliportmadforLEGOKungFuKennyYellowcastle
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,833
    The downside is fitting them in your pockets.
    KungFuKenny560HeliportSumoLegogmonkey76
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,289
    CCC said:
    The downside is fitting them in your pockets.
    My fanny pack would be more of a breastplate.
    BumblepantsKungFuKenny
  • 1x11x1 Member Posts: 142
    @Huw Is there any way to get a list of the sets that Brickset has as retiring at the end of the year?
  • stluxstlux LuxembourgMember Posts: 2,421
    edited October 6
    @1x1 You can run a query on Brickset here.

    Just use "Retirement date" "Equals" "12/31/21".
    You can filter that down by adding "Wanted by me" "Equals" "Yes".

    Or use this query I created.
    vanvonfullpxchrisKungFuKenny
  • 1x11x1 Member Posts: 142
    Thanks but when I click on the link it says "no sets found"?  Sorry I'm useless at creating queries.
  • KungFuKennyKungFuKenny Somewhere between Ice Station Odyssey and FabulandMember Posts: 2,102
    edited October 6
    1x1 said:
    Thanks but when I click on the link it says "no sets found"?  Sorry I'm useless at creating queries.
    That query will show your “wanted” sets (that you have added to your wanted sets list) that are retiring this year.  If you don’t have a wanted list, or if you wanted list has none of the sets that are retiring then it will return no results.
  • MugenPowerMugenPower Member Posts: 553
    Thanks for pointing out the query function, I didn't realize there was one.

    How accurate are those end dates?  I noticed #42129 and #42131 are listed as exiting this year.  They've only been around for 5 and 3 months, respectively!
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