Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

jnscoelho

stevemack said:

Is downtown Diner actually going to retire?  #10255 is first surely?

There are pretty strong rumors that DD is going away at the end of 2020, while AS will keep on going.
I'm just sad that DD hasn't been available since July and I didn't buy it before that...

FollowsClosely

^
I think the DD #10260 is going first because it is one of the worse modulars produced in the past seven years. While the AS #10255 is one of the best ever. Yes, I had to go way back to the PC #10232 to find a more unloved modular.

SumoLego

FollowsClosely said:
I think the DD #10260 is going first because it is one of the worse modulars produced in the past seven years.

Give that the PC had a pretty long life before retirement, I'm not sure that analysis holds up.  Also, AS is (admittedly) a pseudo retread of elements of the Cafe Corner and Green Grocer, I'm not so sure it's originality is 'one of the best'.

There are any number of factors we're not privy to that likely determine how long a set stays in circulation. Production, profitability, sales, etc.  I don't think anyone would denigrate the Town Hall based on it's short lifespan.

CCC

https://www.stonewars.de/geruechte/lego-ideas-neuauflagen-erscheinen/

Stonewars has a rumour that Saturn V and (for some reason) the ship in a bottle are coming back. If true, that is a kick in the nuts for the people thinking they could sell a Saturn V for £200 / £250 / £400 on bricklink.

BillyBricks84

autolycus said:

Looks like the Ideas Tree House and Taj Mahal have switched from "Temporarily Out of Stock" to "Sold Out" on the US S@H site. If you want either of those, I would start looking ASAP and buy at any opportunity for RRP or lower.

Those and a couple other sets listed as sold out are now back to TOOS. LEGO is playing some games.  

autolycus

BillyBricks84 said:

autolycus said:

Looks like the Ideas Tree House and Taj Mahal have switched from "Temporarily Out of Stock" to "Sold Out" on the US S@H site. If you want either of those, I would start looking ASAP and buy at any opportunity for RRP or lower.

Those and a couple other sets listed as sold out are now back to TOOS. LEGO is playing some games.  

Good news! I don’t need either of those, but I hate the idea of someone planning their purchases around the “normal” EOL cycle being screwed by a pandemic and this really messed up stock situation.

FollowsClosely

CCC said:

https://www.stonewars.de/geruechte/lego-ideas-neuauflagen-erscheinen/

Stonewars has a rumour that Saturn V and (for some reason) the ship in a bottle are coming back. If true, that is a kick in the nuts for the people thinking they could sell a Saturn V for £200 / £250 / £400 on bricklink.

If this is true, it's a good move by LEGO.

jnscoelho

I wonder how now having BrickLink impacts on these kinds of decisions. They can easily know what still has high demand after being retired.

vanvonfull

I wondered if the set of the millennium competition would help Lego see the pulse of what recently retired sets are in highest demand and maybe get them to scramble to rerelease some. 

I know they can run the numbers from Bricklink too, but it’s interesting that more sets might get rereleased faster than the 9 years it took Taj Mahal to come back (which I doubt was a successful rerelease campaign, money wise, since very few AFOLs seemed excited about it). 

Imagine if ninjago city came back. I had zero ninjago sets when it came out, so I slept on it and regret it now that I’ve looked at it more. (And more. And more....)

Edit: sort of repeated the post above me, whoops 

madforLEGO

FollowsClosely said:

CCC said:

https://www.stonewars.de/geruechte/lego-ideas-neuauflagen-erscheinen/

Stonewars has a rumour that Saturn V and (for some reason) the ship in a bottle are coming back. If true, that is a kick in the nuts for the people thinking they could sell a Saturn V for £200 / £250 / £400 on bricklink.

If this is true, it's a good move by LEGO.

I think its a bad move by LEGO for the same reason Legends was a bad move (and that was releasing sets that were mostly 5-20 years removed from circulation). I seriously doubt there is enough demand to warrant re-releasing two sets (especially in such a short retirement window). I just think that, once again, LEGO better be careful with stuff like this and their branching out to have agreements to make clothes and shoes. I get the fan base is growing, but there is only so much money to go around for the average fan. Its not like everyone is becoming a millionaire overnight and can afford all of these sets (and that is of course if LEGO does not also boost the prices of these two sets from their original RRP). I just doubt that LEGO fans have money burning a hole in their pocket now and are waiting for these sets to come back. I doubt that people who are not LEGO fans are clamoring for these sets to make a comeback either so, aside from resellers, who is this market really for? I will note that at least LEGO sounds like the original designers were in the loop on this and are reportedly getting their 1% still from the re-release. (maybe that is who this is for?)

If they are using BL then I think they shouldn't be, as I do not think that is a good indicator or what sets are 'popular' otherwise Castle and Classic space should be back any day now (which Im all for actually). I especially do not think you can use that because the last six months people have been stir crazy with no outdoor activities (or few) to speak of. What happens when those (and their sometimes costly demands) come back?

560Heliport

^ I don't see how BL is not a good indicator of demand for a set. It's not the whole picure, certainly, but if a lot of them are being bought and sold there, obviously there is a demand. Should they ignore this information? 

madforLEGO

560Heliport said:

^ I don't see how BL is not a good indicator of demand for a set. It's not the whole picure, certainly, but if a lot of them are being bought and sold there, obviously there is a demand. Should they ignore this information? 

The number of people using BL vs the number of people not using it? If its the case, I think LEGO gives BL too much credit.  I guess if it is only a minor piece of their information I can see it, but if they are using that as a major indicator I think LEGO needs to rethink their strategy.

Lyichir

madforLEGO said:

560Heliport said:

^ I don't see how BL is not a good indicator of demand for a set. It's not the whole picure, certainly, but if a lot of them are being bought and sold there, obviously there is a demand. Should they ignore this information? 

The number of people using BL vs the number of people not using it? If its the case, I think LEGO gives BL too much credit.  I guess if it is only a minor piece of their information I can see it, but if they are using that as a major indicator I think LEGO needs to rethink their strategy.

I think that to a certain degree, demand on Bricklink could effectively be viewed as a microcosm of demand overall. Casual Lego fans might not necessarily buy Lego on Bricklink but they do buy Lego elsewhere, which in turn decreases the global supply and makes those in the know who can't find the sets as easily elsewhere turn to the organized marketplace on Bricklink.

That said, I doubt that's the be-all and end-all of Lego's decision making. I think that if this news about reissuing Lego Ideas sets like those is true, it may have more to do with other factors including but not limited to Lego's recent push to offer more adult-focused sets, increased demand for large, challenging sets during the pandemic, or even direct feedback via emails from customers disappointed to not be able to find some of those recently retired sets.

Fizyx

vanvonfull said:

I know they can run the numbers from Bricklink too, but it’s interesting that more sets might get rereleased faster than the 9 years it took Taj Mahal to come back (which I doubt was a successful rerelease campaign, money wise, since very few AFOLs seemed excited about it).

I don't know about that.  I know a lot of people personally who filled the hole in their collection, and a lot of NON-AFOLs or people with very limited collections that were very excited and picked the set up.  I don't think there was a lot of talk about it, sure, and to be honest when you look at the advancements these large sets have made in the last 10 years, the straight re-release is not really the best build possible, but I have to think that LEGO was probably pretty happy with it, given the release of the Vestas Wind Turbine redesign a year later.  I would bet it at least wasn't a flop in any way.

AMuller396

Word on the street that road plates will be discontinued, replaced with brick/plate built roads.  This is sad if true.

SumoLego

AMuller396 said:

Word on the street that road plates will be discontinued, replaced with brick/plate built roads.

I dislike this terrible turn of events.

- Goes back to hoarding straight roadplates -

SumoLego

560Heliport said:

^ I don't see how BL is not a good indicator of demand for a set.

Bricklink is a niche marketplace.  I certainty hope they are not making any marketing or production decisions based on that information!

autolycus

There's also a decent chance they have spoken with their various retail partners about demand for those sets. Amazon would certainly have good data on demand for sets sold through them. I'm sure Walmart and Target would too. Those would also have data to supplement the BrickLink 3rd party reselling frequency.

CCC

I don't think Saturn V is like the Legends line. It has been gone less than a year after being available for more than two. It is almost continuous. Presumably LEGO know how consistently well it has sold and predict it will continue to sell. If they had specific production numbers in the contracts they may have needed to let it retire. Or it may be what they have seen during covid that there is still a strong demand and they have nothing similar lined up. They are not relying on nostalgia for the old set to sell the new unlike past revivals. To me it is much more similar to reissuing the Death Star.

CCC

jnscoelho said:

I wonder how now having BrickLink impacts on these kinds of decisions. They can easily know what still has high demand after being retired.

The same data was available to them before they owned it.

LegoPegasister2015

If these two sets are repackaged in the 18+ box design, then the value of the originals are sure to skyrocket!!!

CCC

LegoPegasister2015 said:

If these two sets are repackaged in the 18+ box design, then the value of the originals are sure to skyrocket!!!

The Saturn V box was already pretty black, I image in an 18+ box it will look superb. 

jnscoelho

CCC said:

jnscoelho said:

I wonder how now having BrickLink impacts on these kinds of decisions. They can easily know what still has high demand after being retired.

The same data was available to them before they owned it.

Not really. A user doesn't know to and from where the last 6 months sales were from, but I'm sure the platform has that information.
And there must be plenty of other useful data that most common BL users are unaware of.
Finally, it may be a niche marketplace, but it is still a good sampling tool. 

Lobot

Perhaps I'm being overly cynical, but I'm expecting a significant increase in the RRP....

It's certainly an interesting turn of events - presumably Wall-E is next?

DB361

As a Bricklink seller, I’d be 99.9% sure Lego isn’t using Bricklink data to decide on the rereleases for various reasons;
- Sets don’t sell well on Bricklink. The vast majority of buyers looking for retired sets go to eBay. There is surprisingly little data from Bricklink to work off.
- Sales of retired sets as a whole have shot up this year due to various lockdown restrictions across the world. If high demand meant a rerelease, every set since 1980 would be coming back on the market (well, maybe except Galidor :-P)
- Lego already has a very good online indicator of which sets are/were in demand - Lego.com. They’ll have so much historical data such as page clicks, sales, customer queries etc etc. Even post retirement, the appropriate Bricklink pages won’t have anything like as many page clicks as the Lego.com pages with people trying to find out about if a set is still available.

autolycus

@pxchris did you order Downtown Diner with standard or frustration free packaging? If the latter, how was it shipped/boxed?

CCC

^^ even Galidor sets / parts have had a boost over lockdown. I've been after a few lots on eBay, and they often end up 2-3x what I'd pay.

madforLEGO

Lobot said:

Perhaps I'm being overly cynical, but I'm expecting a significant increase in the RRP....

It's certainly an interesting turn of events - presumably Wall-E is next?

Yeah Anything is possible and that they keep these at their original price, but I doubt they are going to keep the Ship in the bottle or Sat V at the same prices as before. 'In demand' means LEGO can try to charge whatever for them now.

autolycus

autolycus said:

@pxchris did you order Downtown Diner with standard or frustration free packaging? If the latter, how was it shipped/boxed?

It was available as Frustration Free Packaging this evening, so I jumped on it. I picked the slower delivery option so I will have a little later deadline to return it if it's crap packaging and the box is totaled or covered in shipping labels.

pxchris

autolycus said:

@pxchris did you order Downtown Diner with standard or frustration free packaging? If the latter, how was it shipped/boxed?

I ordered with the frustration free packaging (it was cheaper, the standard was well over MRP, in the $200s) but it hasn't arrived yet, so I can't say for sure. 

CCC

Doesn't frustration free packaging mean no packaging, just a shipping label on the box.

CCC

jnscoelho said:

CCC said:

jnscoelho said:

I wonder how now having BrickLink impacts on these kinds of decisions. They can easily know what still has high demand after being retired.

The same data was available to them before they owned it.

Not really. A user doesn't know to and from where the last 6 months sales were from, but I'm sure the platform has that information.
And there must be plenty of other useful data that most common BL users are unaware of.
Finally, it may be a niche marketplace, but it is still a good sampling tool. 

If you sort by currency you know what region they came from which for large sets is a good indication of the region they go to. But given any re-release will be worldwide from regional hubs I doubt they care about individual countries.

That said, BL volumes have been small. Saturn V, about 3 sets per day worldwide. 

Brickchap

Not sure if this is relevant but I ordered a set from Canada back in June and it still hasnt arrived. The seller seemed a reasonable person so any ideas what has happened? Is this usual? The package was via standard airmail with no tracking since I had already spent like $40 just to put the damn thing through the post. What should I do? (other than just keep waiting unless this is a usual occurrence)

Mail services around the world should charge less considering they are so unreliable. I thought it was just Australia Post (eg sending letters to people in a town 2 hours drive away usually takes like two weeks yet them sending letters to me takes a few days) however I know that the Austrian postal service also sucks (Ive had three packages from there never arrive and my friend had a hard time posting them) 

stevemack

Brickchap said:

Not sure if this is relevant but I ordered a set from Canada back in June and it still hasnt arrived. The seller seemed a reasonable person so any ideas what has happened? Is this usual? The package was via standard airmail with no tracking since I had already spent like $40 just to put the damn thing through the post. What should I do? (other than just keep waiting unless this is a usual occurrence)

Mail services around the world should charge less considering they are so unreliable. I thought it was just Australia Post (eg sending letters to people in a town 2 hours drive away usually takes like two weeks yet them sending letters to me takes a few days) however I know that the Austrian postal service also sucks (Ive had three packages from there never arrive and my friend had a hard time posting them) 

Depends on the value for me; if it was a valuable set I'd expect tracking/insured so this is a bit silly on the sellers part; ultimately if it's not arrived since June it's not coming I'd say.  A claim needs to go in before it's too late as well.

autolycus

CCC said:

Doesn't frustration free packaging mean no packaging, just a shipping label on the box.

As best I can tell it’s not supposed to be that, but a lot of times that’s exactly what happens. 

It is supposed to be the original lego brown box that’s used on the pallets when Lego ships product to stores. The ones that the set fits into exactly and that has prominent “Lego” markings. That’s how most people got their Saturn Vs anyway.

klinton

Brickchap said:

Not sure if this is relevant but I ordered a set from Canada back in June and it still hasnt arrived. The seller seemed a reasonable person so any ideas what has happened? Is this usual? The package was via standard airmail with no tracking since I had already spent like $40 just to put the damn thing through the post. What should I do? (other than just keep waiting unless this is a usual occurrence)

Mail services around the world should charge less considering they are so unreliable. I thought it was just Australia Post (eg sending letters to people in a town 2 hours drive away usually takes like two weeks yet them sending letters to me takes a few days) however I know that the Austrian postal service also sucks (Ive had three packages from there never arrive and my friend had a hard time posting them) 

Canada Post was an absolute mess for a while there during quarantine. It took two months for a Bricklink order from a seller here in Québec to arrive at my door. Items sent 'Express Post' from stores right here in Montréal took up to two weeks to arrive, after leaving the store.  I'm not certain it's been rectified by now, as I've just kind of stopped using them for the time being. There are more than enough efficient courier services with only slightly higher pricing options.

Given what you've said about Australian post as well, I'm sure it's just the perfect storm. I would wait it out, personally.

CCC

autolycus said:

CCC said:

Doesn't frustration free packaging mean no packaging, just a shipping label on the box.

As best I can tell it’s not supposed to be that, but a lot of times that’s exactly what happens. 

It is supposed to be the original lego brown box that’s used on the pallets when Lego ships product to stores. The ones that the set fits into exactly and that has prominent “Lego” markings. That’s how most people got their Saturn Vs anyway.

One per shipping box, that makes sense. Otherwise I think they just slap a label on the shelf box.

CCC

Brickchap said:

Not sure if this is relevant but I ordered a set from Canada back in June and it still hasnt arrived. The seller seemed a reasonable person so any ideas what has happened? Is this usual? The package was via standard airmail with no tracking since I had already spent like $40 just to put the damn thing through the post. What should I do? (other than just keep waiting unless this is a usual occurrence)

Mail services around the world should charge less considering they are so unreliable. I thought it was just Australia Post (eg sending letters to people in a town 2 hours drive away usually takes like two weeks yet them sending letters to me takes a few days) however I know that the Austrian postal service also sucks (Ive had three packages from there never arrive and my friend had a hard time posting them) 

I'm surprised a seller sent untracked if they item was worth you paying $40 in shipping. Given the will lose a PayPal claim for non delivery. 

As to mail prices, they have gone up due to the lack of freight flights and an increase in handling expenses. The alternative is you pay more in tax so they get subsidies or no mail.

autolycus

CCC said:

autolycus said:

CCC said:

Doesn't frustration free packaging mean no packaging, just a shipping label on the box.

As best I can tell it’s not supposed to be that, but a lot of times that’s exactly what happens. 

It is supposed to be the original lego brown box that’s used on the pallets when Lego ships product to stores. The ones that the set fits into exactly and that has prominent “Lego” markings. That’s how most people got their Saturn Vs anyway.

One per shipping box, that makes sense. Otherwise I think they just slap a label on the shelf box.

I believe they’re only supposed to be offering frustration free for the sets that are one per shipping box, but it’s Amazon, so who the heck knows.

madforLEGO

CCC said:

Doesn't frustration free packaging mean no packaging, just a shipping label on the box.

It depends, I believe Amazon now distinguishes between 'Amazon packaging' (I.e. Shipping box from Amazon) Vs 'Frustration free' packaging- Which appears to be now called an 'overbox' (not the LEGO set box, but the packing box from LEGO to Amazon with the item in it). 'Frustration free', BUT could have a box that shows what exactly is in it (or at least with LEGO the fact that the boxes scream toy and LEGO on them). I have seen many LEGO sets up on Amazon (at least in the US) having two listings now: One for Amazon packaging, and one for 'frustration free' packaging explaining that the Box may note what is inside of it. I think gone are the days of stores just slapping a label on a LEGO set box and sending it out (Thank god).This is what Was put into one QnA response for such a question:

What's the difference between overbox and standard.

Answer:

Hi there! Overbox is a type of Amazon's frustration-free packaging. With both Overbox and Standard options, you'll receive the regular LEGO® box, just the outer packaging will differ. For more info, visit Amazon.com/frustrationfree. - Emily, LEGO® Customer Service
By LEGO Consumer Services Manufacturer on December 2, 2019

Overbox is a cardboard box with the standard Lego box inside. The cardboard "overbox" is designed by the manufacturer to fit the Lego box exactly and has labeling indicating what's inside so you'll want to select "Pack in Amazon box" at checkout to hide the contents. It's essentially an extra layer of protection for the main Lego box to help ensure it arrives undamaged. see less

So, unless I see a substantial difference in price, I choose the Amazon packaging just to be sure.

Astrobricks

We’re waaaaay off topic now, but regarding overboxes, I’m sure smaller Lego sets don’t come one to a box from Lego. I haven’t checked exactly which sets are available “frustration free”.

madforLEGO

Astrobricks said:

We’re waaaaay off topic now,....

Off topic... in the prediction thread? Funny...

MugenPower

I've ordered frustration free packaging Lego where the product box was shipped inside the original Lego shipping box but have also read plenty of comments where a label was just slapped on the product box itself and shipped that way.  So flip a coin, take your pick, and roll the dice...

autolycus

I predict that the value of a set will be greatly diminished if it is shipped with a label on the box itself. It will hold value better after it is retired if it is in a nice clean box with no stickers or shipping labels, and as little damage as possible. 😂

But if we want to keep it exactly on topic: Downtown Diner is retiring this year, as has been reported several reliable places. If you’re in the US and want the set, for yourself or for investment purposes, keep checking Amazon. They have had it available with frustration free packaging off and on the last week or so. I predict that it will increase in value pretty significantly as soon as it retires, as all of the modulars have recently. 2020 has been especially good for secondary sellers.

Brickchap

^Thanks to everyone who replied to my query.

Interesting that Canada post was stuffed around for a while. Not sure I want to file a claim, usually filing any kind of claim means you spend more money trying to get your money back and very rarely do.

It has been noted that the set was relatively expensive and somewhat rare so perhaps someone had light fingers...

Cymbeline

@Brickchap My last BL order which arrived on Friday took a month to get to me in British Columbia from Quebec. Don't give up hope.

KungFuKenny

Brickchap said:

Not sure if this is relevant but I ordered a set from Canada back in June and it still hasnt arrived. The seller seemed a reasonable person so any ideas what has happened? Is this usual?

I had a couple of packages take almost 6 weeks to get from Canada to the US earlier this summer, so there is still hope.  In the future, however, I would always choose a tracked shipping option for expensive items.  Did you order from Bricklink or eBay?  If so you can file in either place (or with PayPal) for non-delivery...

autolycus

Promobricks updated their EOL list with the following):

• 75954 Hogwarts Great Hall (Old date: December 31, 2020 - New EOL date: July 31, 2021 )
• 75943 Whomping Willow
  (Old date: December 31, 2020 - New EOL date: December 31, 2021 )
• 75957 Knight Bus
  (Old date: December 31, 2020 - New EOL date: December 31, 2021 )

autolycus

Sorry, bad hat-tip on my part. That update was on Stonewars, not Promobricks. I had tabs open from both and screwed up which I was looking at.

Brickchap

@Cymbeline Thanks for sharing. I will keep waiting...

@KungFuKenny Thanks for sharing this. I ordered from Bricklink. Tracking Ive found to be a bit of a waste of money in the past, most packages turn up fine and the tracker systems are almost always very unhelpful.

I ordered another set the other day from a store in Queensland (which is a state of Australia above me for those who dont know). They didnt tell me that my sets would have to come from the US, not sure why my countrymen are always obsessed with outsourcing everything LOL.

Anyway the tracking (which was free) is okay except each new destination is listed as unknown until the package reaches there. Ill use some examples that arent the actual ones but eg NY - unknown becomes NY- Los Angeles a few days later then its Los Angeles - unknown etc. My package could be on route to Australia right now or it could be meandering around Canada as it was a couple of days ago (not sure why it went to Ontario CA??)

In regards to my Canadian order that hasnt turned up since June,  it was about $150 of actual lego ($130 set plus a few minfigs and parts, soon adds up doesnt it?) then $40 or so postage. Thats near $200 on a set that should only be $130. I like to leave my $200 for modular buildings...

Oh well, we shall wait and see. Id also hate to file a claim against the seller who seemed alright and then the package turns up.