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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,842
    lkliment2 said:

    So it does, my bad.. Maybe the person I was talking to meant that since the original design was not a building, that it is a bit unstable (even with the base plate).
    Certainly possible! Looks like a cool build.

    Agreed, I was looking into it for a Tower Bridge I have as my GF already has one so I did not need to give it to her for a Christmas present
    lkliment2
  • autolycusautolycus US-SEMember Posts: 553
    Stonewars.de has a new article with what sets they believe will hit EOL in 2nd half of the year, based on info from multiple sources. If the list is accurate, I really need the supply issues to straighten out soon so I don’t start really stressing over a few sets. Glad I got the Hogwarts Great Hall already! 

    Big sets I still need that are on their list, because I suspect their third party prices will get much higher:

    Downtown Diner

    Ideas Treehouse

    Tantive IV

    I’m surprised they have DD instead of AS, but maybe not since AS is a larger modular and is very popular like Parisian Restaurant. I’m also a little surprised their list has the Hogwarts Great Hall but not the Hogwarts Express.

    Another big one for a lot of people, but not me: Death Star.

    With the stock issues in North America, it’s a frustrating year, for sure. I had hoped stock would be getting better by now and that we might still have some chance of getting good promotions or discounts, but alas... I will probably just order those 3 priorities as soon as I see stock.
    Voltron86jnscoelho
  • jnscoelhojnscoelho PortugalMember Posts: 539
    What I don't like from that list are the Friends Jungle Cubes. I didn't even see them online in [email protected]! And series 2 has been sold out for ages, since it came out. And by now my hopes of finding any of them in retail stores around here have faded...
    My girls will be very sad.
    sid3windr
  • KungFuKennyKungFuKenny Deep in the Heart of TexasMember Posts: 1,420
    Take it with a grain of salt, but the Brick Fan (which has been fairly reliable in the past) has a rumor that #21318 Tree House will be retired at the end of the year.  That seems premature but the reasoning was that there are a huge number of large Ideas sets in the pipeline and LEGO needs to make room on shelves.  
    madforLEGOReesesPieces
  • CymbelineCymbeline CanadaMember Posts: 284
    How disappointing - #21318 is one of my favourite sets.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,842
    I take any 'lists' of sets being discontinued with a big grain of salt. With LEGO anything is possible, but I vaguely remember people saying Assembly Square was on last year's retire list as well. Tree house could be gone only if due to the other expensive Ideas sets coming out way for 2021 but it would be a bit surprising as I thought every Ideas set had a run of two years (and with Covid running stocks low I'm surprised if they do not somehow extend it a bit at least). The Downtown Diner going before AS would be a bit of a surprise though as well. I will say this, if you want one of these sets on their list (as Taj Mahal and DD are on the list in addition to the Tree house) and you see these sets on sale around Thanksgiving to Christmas, buy them as they are likely going for good.
    KungFuKenny
  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 945
    I will say this, if you want one of these sets on their list (as Taj Mahal and DD are on the list in addition to the Tree house) and you see these sets on sale around Thanksgiving to Christmas, buy them as they are likely going for good.
    I second this as this has been the scenario for the past few years.  However, the way things are, I'm afraid there will be nothing left to be discounted.
    KungFuKennyAstrobricksgmonkey76
  • autolycusautolycus US-SEMember Posts: 553
    The sets Brick Fan mentioned as retiring 2nd half of this year are all on the list StoneWars.de published.

    the D2C sets StoneWars lists are:

    VW T1 Camper Van
    VW Beetle
    Death Star
    Taj Mahal
    Downtown Diner
    Winter Village Fire Station
    Vestas Wind Turbine
    The Flintstones
    Steamboat Willie
    Tantive IV
    Treehouse
    Lion Dance
    Chinese New Year Temple Market

    They also mention Hidden Side retiring fully.

    Everything on their list is completely plausible and fits normal retirement timelines.

    Assembly Square running later than Downtown Diner is the only big abnormality, but they’ve done that with popular modulars before.
  • The_RancorThe_Rancor Dorset, UKMember Posts: 1,311
    ^ Third generation Death Star incoming?
    560HeliportAstrobricksautolycusBumblepantsSumoLegoMr_Crossgmonkey76
  • autolycusautolycus US-SEMember Posts: 553
    ^ Third generation Death Star incoming?
    Not likely this year, but 2021 wouldn’t shock me. Although if they really want symmetry, they should wait until 2023 and do a DS 2 remake. Even if they go play set like the current DS, I think they could give it interesting details to distinguish it.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,543
    I had no idea the Flintstones set was still going
    SumoLego
  • bricktuarybricktuary Krakozhia (temporarily stuck in London)Member Posts: 544
    Tantive IV is going early! That's definitely on my wishlist, I just need to find some display space :(
    Mr_Cross
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,240
    ^ Third generation Death Star incoming?
    Can't wait for the third generation playset I have no desire to purchase...
    BumblepantsRonyarVorpalRyu
  • The_RancorThe_Rancor Dorset, UKMember Posts: 1,311
    edited July 20
    Well, the third generation Death Star’s other name is Starkiller Base but I can’t imagine Lego ever being willing to do it at the same scale!

    ...wait does that make the Sith Star Destroyer the fourth generation Death Star?
    560HeliportMr_Crossgmonkey76
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,240
    ...wait does that make the Sith Star Destroyer the fourth generation Death Star?
    It's not round.  And planetary-ish.
    The_Rancor
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,904
    I hope I live to see the day when the Death Star actually retires, like for good. And we can all see if it was worth buying some stock in or not. I remember seeing pictures of people with like 30x of 10188. Skipping Imperial Flagship or name the set because they were swinging for the fences. 
    KungFuKennyBumblepants
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,543
    SumoLego said:
    ...wait does that make the Sith Star Destroyer the fourth generation Death Star?
    It's not round.  And planetary-ish.
    It's intergalactic though...


    Mr_CrossSumoLegoKungFuKenny
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,543
    prevere said:
    I hope I live to see the day when the Death Star actually retires, like for good. And we can all see if it was worth buying some stock in or not. I remember seeing pictures of people with like 30x of 10188. Skipping Imperial Flagship or name the set because they were swinging for the fences. 
    The ultimate reseller triple threat: First gen Death Star playsets, Tower Bridge, and the VW Camper Van
    SumoLegoKungFuKennyFollowsCloselypreveregmonkey76
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,240
    It's intergalactic though...
    I've been humming that to myself all morning.
    BumblepantsKungFuKennyMr_Cross
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,240
    The ultimate reseller triple threat: First gen Death Star playsets, Tower Bridge, and the VW Camper Van
    That is truly the disgruntled trinity for LEGO resellers.  But don't forget their investment counterparts - The Zombies, Town Hall and Cloud City...
    BumblepantsKungFuKenny
  • KungFuKennyKungFuKenny Deep in the Heart of TexasMember Posts: 1,420
    SumoLego said:
    It's intergalactic though...
    I've been humming that to myself all morning.
    “ Another dimension, another dimension...”
    SumoLegoMr_Cross
  • iwybsiwybs PlutoMember Posts: 75
    Looks like 42113 V-22 just got discontinued and will have a very high secondary market value!
    BumblepantsMr_Cross
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,543
    Yeah there have to be a decent amount of these somewhere. I guess eBay is where they will end up as Lego will probably try and censor them off bricklink too. 

    I'm hoping some already got shipped to Bulgaria and the shops here will not bother to stop selling them.
    Mr_CrossKungFuKenny
  • CharmiefcbCharmiefcb SydneyMember Posts: 322
    But would Lego have shipped any? Any they do have will be destroyed or the parts re used.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,543
    But would Lego have shipped any? Any they do have will be destroyed or the parts re used.
    It has to be sent to shops by now if it was supposed to be on shelves next week.
  • flordflord CanadaMember Posts: 741
    Is #75234 AT-AP a hot seller in the secondary market? Came across some at a discount. Trying to decide if it’s worth it.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,090
    It goes for just over RRP at the moment. It will probably rise a little more in future. 

    As ever, whether it is a good investment really depends on the buy-in price.
    KungFuKennygmonkey76
  • LegoPegasister2015LegoPegasister2015 New YorkMember Posts: 139
    edited August 9
    I don’t know what your opinion is on Cinderella’s Castle in Disney world being repainted is... But what  are the odds are that they’ll pull a Death Star, and retire Disney Castle only to re-release it a few months later with Pink Walls, Gold Accents and a Blue Roof?

    I think that’s likely in a few years and the old one could hold its value for the nostalgia. 
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,842
    I don’t know what your opinion is on Cinderella’s Castle in Disney world being repainted is... But what  are the odds are that they’ll pull a Death Star, and retire Disney Castle only to re-release it a few months later with Pink Walls, Gold Accents and a Blue Roof?

    I think that’s likely in a few years and the old one could hold its value for the nostalgia. 

    Again take it for whats it worth, but from what thebrickfan.com is reporting, the Castle is sticking around.  Same with the Stranger things sets which is a bit bizarre to me that that set would linger and the Tree house would go.

    SumoLegogmonkey76
  • karritkarrit USAMember Posts: 196
    The Castle in Pink would be absolutely ugly.  After the debacle of the 25th anniversary pink birthday cake I don't know what possessed them to actually paint it pink for the 50th.  I hope the pink paint job is just temporary.  I wouldn't buy it in pink.  Glad I have the original.
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,884
    jnscoelho said:
    What I don't like from that list are the Friends Jungle Cubes. I didn't even see them online in [email protected]! And series 2 has been sold out for ages, since it came out. And by now my hopes of finding any of them in retail stores around here have faded...
    My girls will be very sad.
    I get the feeling that a reduced shelf life is part of the trade-off that allows LEGO to have three or four new waves of cubes per year. We've seen a similar sort of thing happen with many waves of Ninjago spinner sets, Chima Speedorz sets, Friends animal packs, and Mixels.
  • BrickByBrickBrickByBrick Massachusetts, USAMember Posts: 692
    ^^ I actually really like the pink and gold now that the parks have reopened and there's video of it in person. I have the original set but tbh I'd probably buy a pink and gold rerelease too
  • jnscoelhojnscoelho PortugalMember Posts: 539
    Aanchir said:
    jnscoelho said:
    What I don't like from that list are the Friends Jungle Cubes. I didn't even see them online in [email protected]! And series 2 has been sold out for ages, since it came out. And by now my hopes of finding any of them in retail stores around here have faded...
    My girls will be very sad.
    I get the feeling that a reduced shelf life is part of the trade-off that allows LEGO to have three or four new waves of cubes per year. We've seen a similar sort of thing happen with many waves of Ninjago spinner sets, Chima Speedorz sets, Friends animal packs, and Mixels.
    I totally get that. What I don't get is them launching something and then retiring it without having it really available for people to buy them.
    sklambSilverLove
  • karritkarrit USAMember Posts: 196
    jnscoelho said:
    What I don't like from that list are the Friends Jungle Cubes. I didn't even see them online in [email protected]! And series 2 has been sold out for ages, since it came out. And by now my hopes of finding any of them in retail stores around here have faded...
    My girls will be very sad.

    I managed to find 4 of the 5 Jungle cubes in my local Target here in the US a few weeks back but I haven't been able to get the Emma (purple) one despite checking several times since in that store & two others as well as several Walmarts.  Lego.com for some reason has four of the five available but not that same one.  The pet is the chameleon & the most expensive of them all on BnP.  I've checked several other sources online but no one has them yet.  I hope the Emma one shows up soon & that we are able to get the fourth wave too.
  • kbwkbw NCMember Posts: 409
    What are your thoughts on the Death Star set? I’ve been back and forth on picking one up for literally years. Is it just a given this will be redone in the next year or 2? I’m less interested in the market value aspect and more interested in the quality of the set. Feel like my son and I would enjoy building/playing with it. He’s suddenly hyper-focused on Star Wars, specifically Star Wars LEGO.  
  • The_RancorThe_Rancor Dorset, UKMember Posts: 1,311
    The Death Star has about as much play value as any Star Wars set could - you’ve got 14 ‘rooms’ (some with multiple levels and if you include the ‘basement’) plus the elevator down the middle and the separate TIE Advanced to swoop around which can even carry Vader. There are so many iconic scenes in there it’s always fun. Plus, you’re basically getting (sometimes better) versions of the current Death Star Cannon, Death Star Escape and Death Star Final Duel sets in there which are worth $150 RRP between them.

    If your son’s more interested in the sequels, just tilt the Death Star on its side and pretend it’s the wreckage for an Episode IX duel! There’s a lot to be had from it, and you can bet that if they do make another version it’ll cost more than it does now.

    Remaking such a large set for a third time is unexplored territory for TLG - they’ve done the Death Star playset and large scale MF twice, the closest equivalent is probably the Tantive which has already been done 3 times, though that’s generally a little smaller.
    SumoLegokbwstluxFizyxPitfall69
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,240
    I don't like the investment potential of the new or old Death Star playsets.  There is nothing in the last 20 years that would lead me to believe some version of this set won't always be available.

    It's been awhile, but I don't recall that the initial version of the playset Millenium Falcon appreciably more valuable than the most recent version.

    All of that said - open it and build it!  That'll be way more valuable than whatever it may be worth at some point in the future.  (When a newer version is still available...)
    kbwFizyx
  • kbwkbw NCMember Posts: 409
    Thanks for the feedback and the info. I go back and forth. I get all geared up to buy it and I start staring at that $500 sticker and thinking “man, that thing looks cool, but I could get set x, y and z and still have money leftover.” 
    The fact that my son is at an age to get more use out of it helps a little. 
  • KungFuKennyKungFuKenny Deep in the Heart of TexasMember Posts: 1,420
    edited August 31
    kbw said:
    Thanks for the feedback and the info. I go back and forth. I get all geared up to buy it and I start staring at that $500 sticker and thinking “man, that thing looks cool, but I could get set x, y and z and still have money leftover.” 
    The fact that my son is at an age to get more use out of it helps a little. 
    Geez, I forgot that they increased the price $100 from #10188... I checked and Bricklink has used complete copies of the older version (the one I have) for around $400 (and no tax as of yet, although that is about to change).  eBay may have even cheaper versions if you are patient.  This would work if the build and play experience is what you are looking for.  If you want the NIB experience then looks like $500 is the entry point...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,412
    edited September 1
    I still have my #10188 in its shipping box. 
    BumblepantsPate5346The_RancorSumoLego
  • BrickchapBrickchap AustraliaMember Posts: 310
    Am I safe to hold off on Pirates of Barracuda Bay for a while (It like to see a price under $300 AU) or is it going to retire too?

    Generally I dont follow retirement news but after loosing the ability to gain the second city hospital required to build a modular hospital (I waited and waited for it to be discounted, which never came, rather like the Queensland border opening...) I will have to follow this thread with close attention!

    Thankfully I built Steamboat Willie on the weekend, great set! I actually got it to fill the price requirements necessary to get the Steam Engine GWP. I highly recommend to anyone thinking of getting it, grab it now or whistle goodbye to the original Mickey and Minnie!
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,240
    kbw said:
    ...I start staring at that $500 sticker and thinking...
    Every so often, they come up for sale below market price...


    kbw
  • browny333browny333 USAMember Posts: 49
    Thanks Eric...I figured there had to be a posting out there on this, but couldn't find it. The posts at this link do seem to be somewhat dated, but the conversation is certainly interesting. Lego typically EOLs (end-of-lifes) products in conjunction with their Black Friday sales. It is by far the best time to pick up the expensive sets. I do find it hard to believe that Lego would tell anyone on the phone what their obsolescence plan is. That would be a poor business practice in my mind...
    obviously that is a poor business practice
  • FizyxFizyx ColoradoMember Posts: 954
    Brickchap said:
    Am I safe to hold off on Pirates of Barracuda Bay for a while (It like to see a price under $300 AU) or is it going to retire too?

    Generally I dont follow retirement news but after loosing the ability to gain the second city hospital required to build a modular hospital (I waited and waited for it to be discounted, which never came, rather like the Queensland border opening...) I will have to follow this thread with close attention!

    Thankfully I built Steamboat Willie on the weekend, great set! I actually got it to fill the price requirements necessary to get the Steam Engine GWP. I highly recommend to anyone thinking of getting it, grab it now or whistle goodbye to the original Mickey and Minnie!

    Ideas sets have typically been retired after a year to a year and a half.  Given when it was released and it's obvious popularity, I wouldn't be surprised if Pirates of Barracuda Bay wasn't retired until the end of next year, which would be a little long for an Ideas set, but also in line with another Ideas retirement pattern of retiring at the end of the year the year after it was released.  Either way, I think you've still got a decent amount of time to get your hands on the set, although I wouldn't dally too much :)
    panchox1KungFuKennyBrickchap
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,904
    kbw said:
    What are your thoughts on the Death Star set? I’ve been back and forth on picking one up for literally years. Is it just a given this will be redone in the next year or 2? I’m less interested in the market value aspect and more interested in the quality of the set. Feel like my son and I would enjoy building/playing with it. He’s suddenly hyper-focused on Star Wars, specifically Star Wars LEGO.  
    I don't know how old your son is, but time goes by fast. So many kids now, by ages 8, 9 or 10 are done with LEGO and on to other things. Consider his reaction to the box, the magic of Star Wars, and the great time you two will have in building it. That's worth a lot more than $400-$500. Yes, there are bunches of sets you can get to give you volume, but this set (especially for kids) is pretty damn special. 
    560HeliportFollowsCloselypanchox1SumoLegoLegoEveryonedatsunrobbie
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,240
    AND Ned dropped one on the floor in Spider-Man: Homecoming.
  • autolycusautolycus US-SEMember Posts: 553
    Looks like the Ideas Tree House and Taj Mahal have switched from "Temporarily Out of Stock" to "Sold Out" on the US [email protected] site. If you want either of those, I would start looking ASAP and buy at any opportunity for RRP or lower.

    I still need to pick up Downtown Diner. Thankfully it is still "Temporarily Out of Stock", so I'm hoping there will be 1 more wave of supply before it's gone for good. I was hoping for a sale or promo to go with it, but I'm going to jump on any stock I can now. :(
  • pxchrispxchris Oregon, USAMember Posts: 952
    autolycus said:
    Looks like the Ideas Tree House and Taj Mahal have switched from "Temporarily Out of Stock" to "Sold Out" on the US [email protected] site. If you want either of those, I would start looking ASAP and buy at any opportunity for RRP or lower.

    I still need to pick up Downtown Diner. Thankfully it is still "Temporarily Out of Stock", so I'm hoping there will be 1 more wave of supply before it's gone for good. I was hoping for a sale or promo to go with it, but I'm going to jump on any stock I can now. :(
    I just pulled the trigger on buying the Downtown Diner on Amazon at MRP. I too was hoping for double points or some other promo from [email protected] but wasn't going to chance it waiting.
  • autolycusautolycus US-SEMember Posts: 553
    pxchris said:
    autolycus said:
    Looks like the Ideas Tree House and Taj Mahal have switched from "Temporarily Out of Stock" to "Sold Out" on the US [email protected] site. If you want either of those, I would start looking ASAP and buy at any opportunity for RRP or lower.

    I still need to pick up Downtown Diner. Thankfully it is still "Temporarily Out of Stock", so I'm hoping there will be 1 more wave of supply before it's gone for good. I was hoping for a sale or promo to go with it, but I'm going to jump on any stock I can now. :(
    I just pulled the trigger on buying the Downtown Diner on Amazon at MRP. I too was hoping for double points or some other promo from [email protected] but wasn't going to chance it waiting.
    I've been checking Amazon, but the set has always been >$200 when I've looked. Drat!
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