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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • jnscoelhojnscoelho PortugalMember Posts: 287
    jnscoelho said:
    They may be listed for that price, but are they being sold? 
    Price guide says they’ve sold for anywhere from $100 to $170 over the last two months.
    Ouch! Just hope those parts sell really well...
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,231
    Something tells me that with the new Ender Dragon set coming, #21117 won't be as profitable as it was now.
    BumblepantsBaby_Yodaxiahna
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 2,315
    jnscoelho said:
    jnscoelho said:
    They may be listed for that price, but are they being sold? 
    Price guide says they’ve sold for anywhere from $100 to $170 over the last two months.
    Ouch! Just hope those parts sell really well...
    I’ve actually never sold any LEGO and don’t have a BL store, so it’s all academic anyway. However, despite this, resale value does figure into my buying decisions just because it’s another excuse to buy. It’s something I’m working on. I’ve cut back on buying any duplicates recently. 
  • SeanTheCollectorSeanTheCollector BirminghamMember Posts: 738
    VorpalRyu said:
    Something tells me that with the new Ender Dragon set coming, #21117 won't be as profitable as it was now.
    I still prefer the orginal Ender Dragon in #21117 than the new one in #21151 so I would predict that the old set will hold its current value.
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,231
    @SeanTheCollector, I won't dispute that there will be those who will prefer the original set. Likewise, there are those completionists that have to have every set (I'm Marvel Lego completionist, so I get the concept). So, like with the original UCS MF & Taj Mahal, there will still be a market for these sets, but the new versions will reduce the market for the originals.

    We're collecting the Minecraft sets for our boys (my Minecrafting activities are limited to playing Java Edition) & they were wanting 21117 so we'd have the Ender Dragon, but now we have another option. Personally, if the sets' price points were of equal overall value (I wouldn't expect them to be end up around the same actual price, as 21117 looks to be a much bigger set), I'd still go with 21151, as I prefer that iteration of the Ender Dragon.
    xiahnaFizyx
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 2,315
    The #21151 dragon doesn’t seem nearly as cool as the #21117 one. I actually built one of the 21117 dragons and have kept it together because of the cool flapping mechanism for the wings.
  • brianoblivionbrianoblivion NYCMember Posts: 71
    When was this set-#21151-leaked/announced? i totally missed it. Has anything else been leaked/announced? And i agree with Astro, 21117 looks like the grown up version of 21151...
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,231
    While the Ender Dragon from #21117 may have a flapping wing function, for me, I can BrickLink extra  obsidian pillars for #21151, as the Ender Dragon looks more like the actual beast in game.
    xiahna
  • JudgeChuckJudgeChuck UKMember Posts: 1,089
    VorpalRyu said:
    While the Ender Dragon from #21117 may have a flapping wing function, for me, I can BrickLink extra  obsidian pillars for #21151, as the Ender Dragon looks more like the actual beast in game.

    I think I would be more tempted to do something like Jang did and modify the original Ender Dragon, as this new one looks much smaller:



    SeanTheCollectorBaby_Yoda
  • MCNwakeboardMCNwakeboard VirginiaMember Posts: 258
    The Brick Bank (10251) has been averaging $260 on ebay which seems fairly decent compared to other recently retired modular sets. Maybe this is due to the earlier than normal retirement. 
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 2,315
    edited December 2018
    The Brick Bank (10251) has been averaging $260 on ebay which seems fairly decent compared to other recently retired modular sets. Maybe this is due to the earlier than normal retirement. 
    BrickLink is a better indicator of the current going rate. Check the price guide for last 6 months of sales.
    https://www.bricklink.com/v2/catalog/catalogitem.page?id=139541#T=P
    The average sold price for new is $170.
    gmonkey76
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,035
    A lot of it is the hype of a recently retired set. Especially modular wise. The people who now actually regret not picking up Brick Bank a month ago are scrambling to buy it. The price will settle as will the sales. 
    madforLEGOgmonkey76Bumblepants
  • datsunrobbiedatsunrobbie West Haven , CTMember Posts: 1,437
    ^Both are useful when pricing sets. A lot more people know about eBay than Bricklink, so eBay sold listings get used at local thrift stores when they are pricing some sets. Craigslist ads that I have compared also tend toward eBay listings. 

    Not entirely unlike comparing prices at Lego.com to prices at Target, or car parts at a dealer vs. a third party like AutoZone.
    Baby_Yoda
  • Baby_YodaBaby_Yoda The world's backsideMember Posts: 1,174
    So, I'm tossing up between getting #70620 and #70657. I intend to get both eventually, but I'd like to avoid the aftermarket. I assumed Ninjago City would be the way to go since it came out first, but now I'm seeing the Docks discounted at most places. Based on experience, which is more likely to retire sooner?
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,231
    A betting man might say, the Docks due to the discounts, but TLG might just as likely end the City first, take note as to how many guessed Brick Bank was the one to go, I'd say, too close to call on this one.
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 2,315
    Baby_Yoda said:
    So, I'm tossing up between getting #70620 and #70657. I intend to get both eventually, but I'd like to avoid the aftermarket. I assumed Ninjago City would be the way to go since it came out first, but now I'm seeing the Docks discounted at most places. Based on experience, which is more likely to retire sooner?
    Where are these “most places”? All in Oz?
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,938
    ^ Exactly what I was wondering as I madly started googling to see if I could buy one on discount. 😁😁 Then I saw Australia... 
  • Baby_YodaBaby_Yoda The world's backsideMember Posts: 1,174
    edited December 2018
    Target, Myer, and many specialty toy shops. You can't really get it anywhere else here. Direct from Lego is the only place I've seen where it's still RRP.
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,231
    We got our both the Docks & the City from ShopForMe for 20% off, when they had them. I know that it's possible to pick up the Docks for a bit under that at the moment, but I'm ok with the savings we did make on them, as at least we didn't pay RRP.
    Baby_Yoda
  • M1J0EM1J0E Calgary, ABMember Posts: 394
    Funny to read about City & Docks tonight as my wife & I were just debating about getting #70620 while it’s 20% off regularly on Costco’s website.  It really appears to be an awesome set, and one I think we’d regret not buying while it was available as a regular retail set.  I of course want to buy CG #10264 when it comes out in a couple days, even if I know it’ll obviously be available for at least a couple years.  
  • Baby_YodaBaby_Yoda The world's backsideMember Posts: 1,174
    Well, for the record, I went with #70657. I'm sure #70620 won't retire until at least mid-next year (giving it a two-year life), and I just found out I have $50 in VIP points, so I think I'll be right. If I were you, I'd keep in mind that with Brick Bank and less recently Town Hall we've been shown that Lego are prepared to retire less popular Modulars sooner.
    M1J0E
  • shikadishikadi TRU AlumniMember Posts: 63
    If my math is right, PR has been available longer than FB. I dont have PR or AS, but want both. Should I go for PR next?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,264
    edited January 12
    shikadi said:
    If my math is right, PR has been available longer than FB. I dont have PR or AS, but want both. Should I go for PR next?
    Good question, as PR is a bit long in tooth, but Assembly Square is a larger than normal Mod so not sure it would be subjected to the same length of time.. Then again after the Brick bank and Detective Office both disappeared before the PR, who knows what LEGO is thinking anymore. IO suggest to wait for a Double points VIP event and get both :-)
    SumoLegoSprinkleOtterBaby_YodaBumblepantsgmonkey76
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,735
    edited January 12
    My thought is that the PR may perpetually be the 'entry' set in the modular line and could have some extremely long legs.  I would be more concerned because of AS's price point, and that the Garage is higher-priced, that the AS would be retired next.

    I'm still surprised the Bank was retired, but it would appear the PR still sells better than the Bank!

    (I'd get AS first.)
    madforLEGOSprinkleOttersid3windr
  • M1J0EM1J0E Calgary, ABMember Posts: 394
    Hmm.. I hadn’t thought with a low price point (and set development costs amortized out for whatever that amounts to vs. raw materials) that PR could continue on as an entry into the modular line.  I still plan to get it this year (along with CG) as the only ‘current’ modular I don’t yet have.  With it’s price point being so much lower than say CG, it could well be used as the hook to get people into the line.  It must have some strong universal appeal to have outlasted the next two.
  • tmgm528tmgm528 Member Posts: 454
    Slightly off topic - and this question is meant genuinely. Why is the Space Skull set so atrocious in any sort of value gain, while Star Justice is at least slightly better at gaining value? What makes the one so much worse? 
    SumoLegoBumblepantsVorpalRyu
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,871
    SumoLego said:

     Market Street is the only real over-achieving performer, as it backed itself into a higher demand category as a Modular.

    You're kidding right? 

    😁
    SumoLegoM1J0ESprinkleOtterBaby_YodaBumblepantsdavetheoxygenmanVorpalRyuPitfall69
  • tmgm528tmgm528 Member Posts: 454
    Haha I wish I was. 

    Ive always liked both sets, I remember finding them both different to everything else in my Lego catalogues at the time they came out. Space Skulls always caught my eye a bit more. I knew that Space Skulls is a bit of a meme here, so as the other night I was looking around aftermarket - I was surprised that Star Justice seemed to hold a bit more (or at least retain) its original value, while Skulls is ludicrously cheap. 

    Thanks for the insight though, you’re right, spaceships sell.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,735
    pharmjod said:
    SumoLego said:

     Market Street is the only real over-achieving performer, as it backed itself into a higher demand category as a Modular.
    You're kidding right? 
    😁
    That's what the Brickset database says.  (We all know it doesn't belong, but whatever.)

    Space Skulls is da'bomb, yo!
    pharmjodM1J0EdavetheoxygenmanVorpalRyuSprinkleOtterPitfall69
  • M1J0EM1J0E Calgary, ABMember Posts: 394
    I’ve often wondered if there’s a way to tell the least appreciated sets in the aftermarket.  Looking up space skulls, the current value is < 1/2 it’s MSRP, which has to be near the bottom surely.  Most sets, even common small city sets it seems, at least hold to MSRP after retirement.  Everyone knows what the best performers are such as CC & GG.  Even if you could query this, I’m not sure how relevant it might be either, since the older the set is, more likely to have incomplete data.  The newer a set is, there hasn’t been the same time elapsed to appreciate.  And the newer a set is, the more likely price is held down just by the fact that they seem to have more availability.  But it doesn’t stop me wondering if there’s a set which could be procured for even less of a fraction of its original MSRP than space skulls.
  • tmgm528tmgm528 Member Posts: 454
    @M1J0E Ive often wondered the same. Space Skulls has to be near the bottom, I cant think of many sets that (sealed) command such a significantly lower price than initial cost. For a while a few sets from the Desert and Jungle Adventure themes were worth roughly the same as what they were 20 years prior, but over the past five or so years they’ve risen quite a bit (source: I have some NISB larger sets from the time). But Im sure there are plenty examples of that - perhaps the Ben 10 sets? But those can only bottom out a few dollars as opposed to Skulls fifty dollars.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,735
    I would guess that there is probably pretty low demand and low availability of Space Skulls.  It's from the pre-boom era where just about every 'modern' set nowadays is produced in far greater volume.

    I made the same observation with 'rare' CMFs, in that even a 1x per case CMF is still in total volume more available than most other minifigures.  (Or other less-valuable figures.)

    In terms of investment potential, I would expect that frequenty re-released sets - like X-Wings, A-Wings, fire engines, polivce stations, etc. will probably not retain there value above RRP once the supply of these sets in the aftermarket exceeds demand.  Similarly - unless I am a hardcore fire engine collector, I doubt the average City fire engine is going to stay robustly above RRP.  

    We all should probably learn something from the Death Star re/extension release?
    tmgm528
  • tmgm528tmgm528 Member Posts: 454
    SumoLego said:
    I would guess that there is probably pretty low demand and low availability of Space Skulls.  It's from the pre-boom era where just about every 'modern' set nowadays is produced in far greater volume.

    I made the same observation with 'rare' CMFs, in that even a 1x per case CMF is still in total volume more available than most other minifigures.  (Or other less-valuable figures.)

    In terms of investment potential, I would expect that frequenty re-released sets - like X-Wings, A-Wings, fire engines, polivce stations, etc. will probably not retain there value above RRP once the supply of these sets in the aftermarket exceeds demand.  Similarly - unless I am a hardcore fire engine collector, I doubt the average City fire engine is going to stay robustly above RRP.  

    We all should probably learn something from the Death Star re/extension release?
    Im not too sure about the X-Wing thing as the ones from 10 years ago on seem to have gained value, even after substantial rereleases. I see where you’re coming from with the idea that once supply exceeds the demand things will slow - but if that were true I have to feel it would have already happened after 6 or so X Wings. 

    I actually think I will pull the trigger on the Space Skulls set once my bank account is looking a bit happier, my inner youth still actually quite fancies it.
    SumoLegoPitfall69Ronyar
  • tmgm528tmgm528 Member Posts: 454
    And as a quick extra aside - I do think @SumoLego ‘s theory holds for larger sets. See: MilF, Taj Mahal etc. Demand on those sets is far less robust than say - an X-Wing.
    SprinkleOtter
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,735
    edited January 13
    I wasn't really referring to the current aftermarket.  Older X-Wings each likely have their own distinct collectible justification.  Whether it be lower availability, associated minifigs, etc.  Anything produced during or in the 5 years after the brink-of-bankruptcy period are inherently going to have less supply in the aftermarket.

    ^  I agree that an old X-Wing may be an entry-level item for a new collector.  That would be one of the numerous factors to consider.

    My argument really revolves around how recently high-volume iterations will perform 5 or 10 years from now.  (Is the Force Awakens Millennium Falcon going to stay above RRP when there are four subsequent editions?)
    tmgm528
  • tmgm528tmgm528 Member Posts: 454
    Fair point, and its something I suppose we won’t know the answer till it happens or doesn’t. The set that confuses me most in this regard is the 2012 versus 2018 X-Wings, compared to the 2013-2016 A-Wings. In the case of the X-Wing, the release of the newest version had little to no impact on the high after-market value of the 2012 version, where as the A-Wing did (If I recall) lower the aftermarket value on the older edition somewhat. 

    I can’t imagine Porkins is that important to the equation, but who knows!
    SumoLego
  • thenosthenos Twin Cities, MNMember Posts: 385
    Porkins knew. "Value? I can hold it..."
    VorpalRyuSumoLegogmonkey76SprinkleOttertmgm528GothamConstructionCoPitfall69herbyderby
  • M1J0EM1J0E Calgary, ABMember Posts: 394
    tmgm528 said:
    @M1J0E Ive often wondered the same. Space Skulls has to be near the bottom, I cant think of many sets that (sealed) command such a significantly lower price than initial cost. For a while a few sets from the Desert and Jungle Adventure themes were worth roughly the same as what they were 20 years prior, but over the past five or so years they’ve risen quite a bit (source: I have some NISB larger sets from the time). But Im sure there are plenty examples of that - perhaps the Ben 10 sets? But those can only bottom out a few dollars as opposed to Skulls fifty dollars.
    Enjoy those NISB sets TMGM!  It should be an easy enough query to run by somebody who knows what they’re doing (ie: not me).  Each set has a current value pulled from Bricklink presumably, and most ‘modern’ ones anyways should have at least a US$ MSRP entered to compare to.  It won’t necessarily say anything about a particular set’s demand or supply on their own as the market price is set as a balance of the two (as in Sumo’s idea above where even a ‘common’ large supply MF could be priced above a ‘rarer’ one if it’s desirable enough).  But I still think an interesting comparison.  

    The only set I can think of since then might be #21308 which doesn’t sell out on [email protected] even at 50% off.  Followed up by #76052 (a set I actually like but never bought), which was also on clearance seemingly forever, but never quite 50% IIRC.  With discounts like that offered before retirement, some price depression on less desirable sets might not be totally set in the aftermarket either.
  • M1J0EM1J0E Calgary, ABMember Posts: 394


    I actually think I will pull the trigger on the Space Skulls set once my bank account is looking a bit happier, my inner youth still actually quite fancies it.
    Go for it!  There’s a set for every interest out there, and a buyer for every set.  The one constant in collecting LEGO is even with people having common themes or interests, no two collections should be exactly alike.  
  • M1J0EM1J0E Calgary, ABMember Posts: 394


    My argument really revolves around how recently high-volume iterations will perform 5 or 10 years from now.  (Is the Force Awakens Millennium Falcon going to stay above RRP when there are four subsequent editions?)
    Very true.  With increased supply of each individual set, plus increased supply of similar sets with rereleases, we’re probably well beyond the days of a $100 set selling for $1000.  But still there are some very recent signs that price appreciation can still be alive & well.  I’m thinking of #21310 which seems to have gotten a quick $100 bump in price, >50%.  Or the 100th store minifig, which despite not being that limited (our store did go through them though before I got there for one) seems to be enjoying enough demand to be bid up on ebay to prices higher than you’d think for one minifig.  
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,264
    M1J0E said:


    My argument really revolves around how recently high-volume iterations will perform 5 or 10 years from now.  (Is the Force Awakens Millennium Falcon going to stay above RRP when there are four subsequent editions?)
    Very true.  With increased supply of each individual set, plus increased supply of similar sets with rereleases, we’re probably well beyond the days of a $100 set selling for $1000.  But still there are some very recent signs that price appreciation can still be alive & well.  I’m thinking of #21310 which seems to have gotten a quick $100 bump in price, >50%.  Or the 100th store minifig, which despite not being that limited (our store did go through them though before I got there for one) seems to be enjoying enough demand to be bid up on ebay to prices higher than you’d think for one minifig.  
    I think the reason why the 100th store figure is going for a larger amount is due to the fact that not everyone has a LEGO store near them, AND they were somewhat limited per store ( I though I heard somewhere it was 50 per store).
    M1J0EFizyx
  • M1J0EM1J0E Calgary, ABMember Posts: 394
     
    I think the reason why the 100th store figure is going for a larger amount is due to the fact that not everyone has a LEGO store near them, AND they were somewhat limited per store ( I though I heard somewhere it was 50 per store).
    Good point, there would be a large demand from those wanting the figure who aren’t near a store to get it.  There could also be demand from overseas as well (witness the Chinese New Year sets) once the figures hit the secondary market.  I thought I’d heard it was like 300 per store.  With 100 stores though, that would be 30,000.  You’d think that would be enough, but yeah with demand from collectors all over the continent, and potentially all over the world, it would make sense for prices to fall where they are.
    Fizyx
  • datsunrobbiedatsunrobbie West Haven , CTMember Posts: 1,437
    SumoLego said:
    I wasn't really referring to the current aftermarket.  Older X-Wings each likely have their own distinct collectible justification.  Whether it be lower availability, associated minifigs, etc.  Anything produced during or in the 5 years after the brink-of-bankruptcy period are inherently going to have less supply in the aftermarket.

    ^  I agree that an old X-Wing may be an entry-level item for a new collector.  That would be one of the numerous factors to consider.

    My argument really revolves around how recently high-volume iterations will perform 5 or 10 years from now.  (Is the Force Awakens Millennium Falcon going to stay above RRP when there are four subsequent editions?)
    If the local Savers is any indication, I would not invest heavily in #7695 or other Falcons in that scale. I've only completed 2, but I have parts from at least 5 more from bulk parts lots. #9441 is another one that has shown up a lot - after 3 I quit assembling them and just toss the parts in with the unsorted backlog (bad idea, backlog is out of control). 
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,871
    edited January 20
    LEGO Creator Expert Brick Bank 10251 Construction Set https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01A85FXBC/

    If anyone still needs one, or 3.
    Pitfall69VorpalRyumadforLEGO
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,871
    Gone again.
    SumoLegoPitfall69VorpalRyu
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 5,653
    Voltron on backorder in the US. 
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,356
    I can't believe how quiet this thread is. It's not like Lego investing is completely dead
    SumoLegomadforLEGOVorpalRyudmcc0gmonkey76
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,735
    Shhh... be very quiet... I am trying to sell some Exo-Suits...
    FollowsCloselySprinkleOttermadforLEGOVorpalRyudmcc0gmonkey76
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,356
    If you listen carefully, you can hear an Exo-Suit depreciate.
    SumoLegomadforLEGOVorpalRyudmcc0gmonkey76AstrobricksSprinkleOtterBOBJACK_JACKBOBtmgm528
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