Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

pharmjod

I agree on the mixer. What it lacks in visual impressiveness it makes up in fun factor. It is a very satisfying build and the mechanism is really well executed.

SumoLego

And it transforms into an Autobot.

Switchfoot55

Or a handy backup to your standard Kitchen Aid stand mixer

Aanchir

As for whether the Ferris Wheel does better in the aftermarket than the Mixer, there's a lot to consider. On the one hand, Ferris Wheels are a more iconic fairground subject that even average buyers (e.g. non-AFOLs) might seek out in the future. On the other, that also boosts the likelihood that there will be other ferris wheel sets in the future, and whether they're as big and impressive or not that might still stifle future demand from non-AFOLs. I'm sure parents buying for their kids will simply opt for whatever's the cheapest or most widely available option, and it ain't gonna be a retired Creator Expert set.

The aftermarket value of Fairground Mixer, of course, also surely benefits from being an early installment in its series. Just as with Cafe Corner and Green Grocer, I'm sure it's a set many people were prepared to skip at first, but then as later items tailored to wider audiences showed up in the same series (e.g. Ferris Wheel and Carousel for the Fairground series, Fire Brigade and Pet Shop for the Modular Buildings), people who started collecting the series with those sets gained an added incentive to fill the gaps in their collections with the earlier sets they'd skipped — even though since fewer of those earlier sets sold overall, the number of people with Creator Expert Modular Building or Fairground collections far exceeds the total number of Fairground Mixers/Cafe Corners in circulation in the aftermarket.

brianoblivion

...there's a lot to consider.

There certainly is. I'm glad i'm not reliant on aftermarket speculation for any source of income as i'd surely go broke in about five minutes. Case in point-my first foray into the retired Lego set derby-last summer i picked up the Scooby-Doo haunted mansion for a nice price. I waited patiently until just the right time before Halloween and unloaded it for a whopping $20 profit. Pretty slick eh? So while i may be inclined to believe the FW is a sure thing i'm a long way from putting my money where my mouth is.

Pitfall69

The average return in the stock market is under %10. If you are making more than 10% return on your Lego investments; then you are doing ok. Yes, the days of 2x rrp are gone on big sets, but there are still plenty of sets to make money on at the right buy in price. Whether it's worth your time is another thing, but I find packing up sets rather cathartic. 

Scatterbug

brianoblivion said:

...there's a lot to consider.

Case in point-my first foray into the retired Lego set derby-last summer i picked up the Scooby-Doo haunted mansion for a nice price. I waited patiently until just the right time before Halloween and unloaded it for a whopping $20 profit.

Console yourself with the fact that you chose wisely (although the entire Scooby theme is a winner). Sounds like your buy-in wasn't low enough and/or you sold cheaply.

stevemack

Pitfall69 said:

The average return in the stock market is under %10. If you are making more than 10% return on your Lego investments; then you are doing ok. Yes, the days of 2x rrp are gone on big sets, but there are still plenty of sets to make money on at the right buy in price. Whether it's worth your time is another thing, but I find packing up sets rather cathartic. 

I’ve come to enjoy it all, it may be a simple task but every box I seal up is going to be opened with great happyness 😀

Pitfall69

^That is how I see it as well; you are also providing a service. 

PapaBear

Scatterbug said:

brianoblivion said:

...there's a lot to consider.

Case in point-my first foray into the retired Lego set derby-last summer i picked up the Scooby-Doo haunted mansion for a nice price. I waited patiently until just the right time before Halloween and unloaded it for a whopping $20 profit.

Console yourself with the fact that you chose wisely (although the entire Scooby theme is a winner). Sounds like your buy-in wasn't low enough and/or you sold cheaply.

I'm usually never able to get deep discounts so I merely focus on what will do well.  Although I got about 2 of everything from the Scooby theme (basically for myself), I invested mainly in the Mystery Machine.  2x RRP is decent but really not that good on a $30 set (maybe $15 profit per set).  The mixer went up 50%, but that equates to about 10% profit.  Sadly, those are probably 2 of my best picks over the past few years.  As iconic as a Ferris Wheel is, I won't be buying them.  @Aanchir raises a key point about reissuing the Ferris Wheel.  I think the Fairground theme may continue for a while and with it, a Ferris Wheel reissue.

Part of me is happy I was able to acquire a 2nd Brick Bank and DO in addition to the ones I have to build, but I also know they wouldn't have been able to be gotten at a 20% discount online this time of year in the past.

FWIW if I were to pick a set today it would have to be The Old Fishing Store #21310.  It has barely been out a year, it was well received, it's IDEAS (which usually does well in the aftermarket), it's a very well built modular, and it sold very well upon its initial release.  I think I will try to grab an extra 1 or 2 of that if I can.  It has not been listed as retiring, however, it is on 30% discount from S@H and at least 10% from other retailers.  Amazon is the only one with stock atm.  I would not be surprised if they added the "Retiring Soon" label to this one post-mortem.  

Legoboy

Pitfall69 said:

^That is how I see it as well; you are also providing a service. 

Suppose that depends on how fast the shelves get cleared.  For every happy person there is there’s an unhappy one that missed out on a good deal.

SprinkleOtter

Legoboy said:

Pitfall69 said:

^That is how I see it as well; you are also providing a service. 

Suppose that depends on how fast the shelves get cleared.  For every happy person there is there’s an unhappy one that missed out on a good deal.

Fight! Fight! Fight!

klinton

Legoboy said:

Pitfall69 said:

^That is how I see it as well; you are also providing a service. 

Suppose that depends on how fast the shelves get cleared.  For every happy person there is there’s an unhappy one that missed out on a good deal.

With things like action figures and such, where scalpers snag up all the chase figures as soon a they hit shoppes in order to flip them, I'd agree that buying to resell is a full dick move. When it comes to Lego though, the sets generally have a decent shelf life. If you miss out on a set over it's entire run, hoping to catch it on sale on it's way out the door... then that's kind of on you. You chose to play roulette. 

That said, I will never understand the desire to retain a hoard of unopened toys in hopes of one day turning a profit. The Lego aftermarket right now reminds me so much of the comic book scene in the 90s. Speculators created an unrealistic demand for the product, due to everyone buying multiples to save and resell for profit. Most of those high value "collector's items" don't even sell for pennies on the dollar, if at all. Longboxes full of unsellable, neatly bagged comics are a storage nightmare in their own right. I can't even imagine the frustration a basement full of dusty D2C sets would cause. /2cents

Pitfall69

^I don't think that there is a Lego set that is "unsellable". Heck, just recently the community found out that even in some circles (extremely small circles...lol) Galidor is desirable. I can see where a long box of comics would be useless to some people and a major fire hazard at that. As far as a basement full of D2C sets, those still would retain most of their value for the most part.

SumoLego

Both comic books and D2C LEGO sets pale in comparison to Precious Moments and Beanie Babies.  Those suckers are worth millions!

Pitfall69

SprinkleOtter said:

Legoboy said:

Pitfall69 said:

^That is how I see it as well; you are also providing a service. 

Suppose that depends on how fast the shelves get cleared.  For every happy person there is there’s an unhappy one that missed out on a good deal.

Fight! Fight! Fight!

There is no fight. I would just rub his head and use one of my 3 wishes for him to go away ;)

SumoLego

(I would just chuck the lamp back into the Cave of Wonders.)

klinton

Pitfall69 said:

^I don't think that there is a Lego set that is "unsellable". Heck, just recently the community found out that even in some circles (extremely small circles...lol) Galidor is desirable. I can see where a long box of comics would be useless to some people and a major fire hazard at that. As far as a basement full of D2C sets, those still would retain most of their value for the most part.

I suppose, worst case scenario, one could always part the sets out if need be. Even when Lego loses it's current luster in the marketplace, there will always be people looking for parts in unique shapes and colours. 

You were on the nail about resellers providing a service. With a healthy aftermarket, builders are more or less guaranteed that the parts they need for their personal builds will nearly always be obtainable, regardless of Lego's production schedule. The existence of networks like Bricklink are indispensable to the hobby.

I suppose that might be the key difference between Lego sets and other trends like comics and Beanie Babies. You have a measure of insurance underlining your investment. I may have jumped the gun with my initial comment. :)

pharmjod

LEGO is 100% nothing like comics or any other hot toy from the 90s. I'm not saying it will make you rich, but there will always be a market. 

Baby_Yoda

Yeah, Lego is more like a "hot toy" from the 50's...

klinton

Baby_Yoda said:

Yeah, Lego is more like a "hot toy" from the 50's...

Comics have been around just a bit longer, eh? :p

Yes, Lego is an 'evergreen' brand, and will always have it's devotees, but this current bubble of massive popularity is definitely a new thing in recent years. Lego was really struggling for many years there, and there was certainly no high end aftermarket.

The reason our favorite childhood sets (and even the early modulars that set off this current spike) are so pricey on the secondary market is because nobody thought to save Lego sets MIB for resale after retirement. Now that everyone's stockpiling current sets, the aftermarket will experience a glut and the bottom will fall out from under speculators in the mad rush to unload "valuable" sets the minute the aftermarket sees a decline. It's inevitable. That was where I was drawing the analogy between the 90s comic scene and Lego sets today. 

As was mentioned though, there will always be an aftermarket for Lego parts. The speculative buyer will likely be able to find an outlet to unload their stockpile of Lego, but they will never see the large profits they're currently expecting. They will, in all likelihood, end up selling at a loss and/or be saddled with the extra burden of parting out scads of sets with multi thousand piece part counts. 

It's like any other investment in physical commodities, really. The pattern is always the same. It just seems to me that choosing Lego (or any entertainment property, really) as your 'nest egg' is more hassle and risk than it's really worth. Lego is much more fun to just enjoy for the pure excitement of building a new set without worrying about it's 'value'. 

Of course, I could be completely wrong and I'm just the idiot who didn't buy shares in Apple when it was struggling. :)

Baby_Yoda

klinton said:
Lego is much more fun to just enjoy for the pure excitement of building a new set without worrying about it's 'value'.

This is a good point. If you can't sell that super-rare comic book, baseball card or figurine, then it's a waste of space and a loss of money. If you can't sell a D2C Lego set, however, you can still open it and build it, and if you've got several copies, you can retain most of their value through their parts.

CCC

Comic books / Beanie Babies, etc are so different to LEGO sets. I don't think I've ever seen people ripping up comic books selling them page by page or similarly decapitating or mutilating Beanie Babies to sell them.

klinton said:

It just seems to me that choosing Lego (or any entertainment property, really) as your 'nest egg' is more hassle and risk than it's really worth. Lego is much more fun to just enjoy for the pure excitement of building a new set without worrying about it's 'value'. 

Of course, I could be completely wrong and I'm just the idiot who didn't buy shares in Apple when it was struggling. :)

Actually LEGO can be fun to invest in and try to predict the winners, although it is far less fun now than even five years ago. Buying into LEGO now as an investment is like buying into Apple shares now.

piratemania7

I think we can agree on the fact that LEGO was originally purposed to be enjoyed right?  I think the investment boom/frenzy has tweaked that outlook quite a bit.  

I always just think about this.  Even if I open the set and enjoy it, that if one day I wanted to or had to sell said set that I might not get as much as I would brand new in box - but I would at least get close to if not more than retail (especially if it has been retired for a long time).  Again, most of that depends on your buy-in of the set but there are very few sets where I don't have some form of a discount or the other.

CCC

piratemania7 said:

I think we can agree on the fact that LEGO was originally purposed to be enjoyed right?  I think the investment boom/frenzy has tweaked that outlook quite a bit.  

No. LEGO made it to make money. Shops sold it to make money. Different people want different things from consumer products.

SumoLego

I like to collect Spanish Doubloons so I can swim through them like Scrooge McDuck.  (Not so much the monetary value or historical significance.)

Mr_Cross

^ whilst wearing a Kylo Ren mask and weilding a high-powered nerf-ball shooter?

SumoLego

Mr_Cross said:

^ whilst wearing a Kylo Ren mask and weilding a high-powered nerf-ball shooter?

I have a different room for the Nerf.  Nerf and Doubloons don't mix.  All you get is a squishy crust of flat Nerf balls at the bottom of the pit.

Astrobricks

SumoLego said:

Mr_Cross said:

^ whilst wearing a Kylo Ren mask and weilding a high-powered nerf-ball shooter?

I have a different room for the Nerf.  Nerf and Doubloons don't mix.  All you get is a squishy crust of flat Nerf balls at the bottom of the pit.

How deep is your doubloon pit? Safe for diving?

bandit778

Have you not seen what happens when you dive into doubloons?

Astrobricks

bandit778 said:

Have you not seen what happens when you dive into doubloons?

Even without performing the experiment, I can say that when I do it, it hurts, no matter how deep they are ;-)

The_Stud

Imagine diving into a pool full of Legos instead.

piratemania7

.

Pitfall69

^We gave been waiting for your point for hours now.

SumoLego

Pitfall69 said:

^We gave been waiting for your point for hours now.

(What's your point?)

Astrobricks

We gave and we gave and we gave for you kids, and this is the thanks we get?!

sid3windr

We've reached the point of no return...

Astrobricks

Did this thread have a topic?

SumoLego

Does this topic have a forum?

Are we all really here, or is it all just a figment of our imagination?

SeanTheCollector

Lets get back on topic!

For Minecraft fans, #21146 The Skeleton Attack is retiring early after just 4 months! I like the set even if it is over priced in the UK (£50 in UK but only $40 in US). If you can pick it up at a decent price then I'm pretty sure it will be a good investment. A must buy if you like red sheep! :-)

brianoblivion

Weirdness...It's a rather bland set but it still works well in the grand scheme of Minecraft. Can anyone speculate as to why it had such a short shelf life? Were sales just abysmal? Is Lego making room for new sets? And didn't the Witch's Hut also retire after just a few months? 

Astrobricks

Is anybody making any decent profit selling retired Minecraft sets?

stevemack

They were profitable when they came out but I gave up on them personally.

Astrobricks

I bought three #21117 Ender Dragon at Target for $35 and broke them down for parts. Now I see NISB sets listed for $140+ on BL. Doh!

jnscoelho

They may be listed for that price, but are they being sold? 

exciter1

Astrobricks said:

I bought three #21117 Ender Dragon at Target for $35 and broke them down for parts. Now I see NISB sets listed for $140+ on BL. Doh!

Selling for $180 on Amazon all day.

Astrobricks

jnscoelho said:

They may be listed for that price, but are they being sold? 

Price guide says they’ve sold for anywhere from $100 to $170 over the last two months.

jnscoelho

Astrobricks said:

jnscoelho said:

They may be listed for that price, but are they being sold? 

Price guide says they’ve sold for anywhere from $100 to $170 over the last two months.

Ouch! Just hope those parts sell really well...

VorpalRyu

Something tells me that with the new Ender Dragon set coming, #21117 won't be as profitable as it was now.

Astrobricks

jnscoelho said:

Astrobricks said:

jnscoelho said:

They may be listed for that price, but are they being sold? 

Price guide says they’ve sold for anywhere from $100 to $170 over the last two months.

Ouch! Just hope those parts sell really well...

I’ve actually never sold any LEGO and don’t have a BL store, so it’s all academic anyway. However, despite this, resale value does figure into my buying decisions just because it’s another excuse to buy. It’s something I’m working on. I’ve cut back on buying any duplicates recently.