Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

stlux

pharmjod said:

Nothing is off the table with the recent rereleases. Even modulars. I don't recall any official statement from LEGO regarding the modulars and no rereleases.

There was Jamie Berard at Skaerbaek saying that there would be no re-releases of the old modulars. I consider a statement from the head of the Creator Expert team official enough.

That wasn't this year, so maybe they changed their minds in the meantime. However the issue with retired moulds, including the doors and windows, and the lack of storytelling element which has become so important and which Jamie is heavily promoting, has not gone away.

CCC

madforLEGO said:

LegoPegasister2015 said:

Baby_Yoda said:

^^ The Detective's Office going after three years is one thing, but the Brick Bank after just two when the standard is four? That move would permanently decrease the number of currently available modulars, unless they decided to wait until frickin' 2020 to retire Parisian Restaurant, a 2014 set! It'll become the new Tower Bridge!

I suppose in the chance that two modulars retired in one year, there's only two likely outcomes.

1) They're planning to re-release an old modular on Black Friday, 2019 (Guessing Green Grocer) and need to make room for it alongside the four others.

2) Assembly Square was so popular that they decided to make another behemoth of a set for the new release. Perhaps that Hotel Mike Psiaki implied?

3) LEGO just realized that having 5 mods available at one time is actually hurting sales of their other sets and modulars.

I agree with your "3" here. I wonder what sales figures of the old but current modulars are. I can understand keeping two year old sets (or older) if they are still selling well. But if they have been out long enough for people to buy and the sales have dropped off, then why retain them.

kbw

^ Same. They have a large amount of big sets out too. I have to suspect that’s eating into sales quite a bit so it makes sense to scale back. When you add up all the modulars, Ninjago City, City Docks, Firehouse HQ, Hogwarts, Disney Castle, Joker Manor, etc. it just seems like a ton. Being relatively new on these boards, I don’t know if this is out of the norm or not, but it seems like a lot to me. 

kbw

Spoke to my local store and they have pulled the sets that will be on sale for Black Friday. Perhaps that would suggest that Lego S @ H is not making the DO or Ferris Wheel available online on purpose in order to have stock for Black Friday?

FollowsClosely

Anyone else spot the missing piece?

560Heliport

The brick separator?

SeanTheCollector

@FollowsClosely I guess the dog has eaten his bone between when the box photo and the catalogue photo was taken! :-)

SumoLego

SeanTheCollector said:

@FollowsClosely I guess the dog has eaten his bone between when the box photo and the catalogue photo was taken! :-)

A ha!

FollowsClosely

How do you miss that when building?

Lyichir

FollowsClosely said:

How do you miss that when building?

My guess is it wasn't missed while building, but rather came off when transporting the built set to/from the shooting location and was not noticed before the shoot took place.

brianoblivion

What's the general consensus on whether the Ghostbuster HQ will be retired before the next double points weekend?

Astrobricks

The next double points weekend is this weekend.

PapaBear

IIRC the Winter Village Station was also missing some roof pieces in it's first catalog appearance.  Seems like a reoccurring theme now.  What could it mean?

sid3windr

Next modular is a construction site? Next technic flagship is a demolition crane?

Lyichir

Maybe they'll keep doing it until they've left out enough parts to release an entirely separate set with? :P

Nah, most likely just a mishap where the set lost parts between being built for the photoshoot and being photographed. I'm sure most sets aren't built on-site for the catalog shoot and there's plenty of opportunity for a part to come off and be overlooked, with the catalog pics probably getting less direct scrutiny and oversight from Lego than box and instruction photos that take place farther in advance.

brianoblivion

Astrobricks said:

The next double points weekend is this weekend.

Ah, ok then...thanks for the reply.

Addicted2Oxygen

Looks like there is a lot of stuff retiring:

https://shop.lego.com/en-GB/City-Sets?callback=json&cc=gb&count=18&do=json-db&i=1&jsonp=jsonCallback&lang=en&q=*&q1=backAgainFlag&rank=rank_vrs&showRetired=false&sp_q_exact_9=gb&userquery=*&x1=featured_id

• Tower bridge
• Big Ben
• GBHQ
• BWE
• Mountain Cabe
• DO
• BB
• Silent Mary
• Snow Speeder
• Ferris Wheel
• Old Fishing Store
• Extreme Adventure
• And lots more.......

jnscoelho

It's really a lot of stuff that's going to retire soon, more than I expected.
206 items.
I guess I'll have to order BB soon...

jnscoelho

Strangely, or maybe not, there's not a single BrickHeadz on the list...

SeanTheCollector

Interestingly it doesn't include a single BrickHeadz set!

CCC

This one is conflicted ...

jnscoelho

Airplane pilots have a short career since their profession is very demanding. They tend to retire early.

bluedragon

@CCC haven’t you heard of the FIRE movement?

Aanchir

No guarantees, but I expect some of the 2018 sets/series marked as retiring soon would probably be a good forecast of which 2019 series we can expect to be released soonest. For example, it's plausible that many of this year's City Great Vehicles and Friends Bedroom sets are retiring in order to make room for next year's City Great Vehicles and Friends Heart Boxes.

1x1

Strange that Slave-1 isn't marked as retiring soon.  It had a "Last chance to buy" label on it when I was in the Brighton store the other day.

LegoPegasister2015

So... out of all the sets that are retiring, are any worth investing in?

prevere

jnscoelho said:

Strangely, or maybe not, there's not a single BrickHeadz on the list...

A lot of the smaller sets like Brickheadz never get such distinctions. Usually (not to be confused with always) only reserved for larger sets. From Lego's perspective, it's just a market gimmick.  

rbozarth

LegoPegasister2015 said:

So... out of all the sets that are retiring, are any worth investing in?

Detective's Office for sure because it was very well received in the community and looks great! 

-Bozbricks

pharmjod

I personally wouldn't invest in any of the larger sets like modulars. The best returns are on the small to mid sized sets.

Baby_Yoda

Unless you can get the larger sets for the price of small-to-mid sets, but we've already been over that...

Pmh

Assembly square will retire soon I think, 6-12 months max.

It has been on sale here with a huge discount (189 euro) which has happened before with other similar big sets before they where retired.

It should do reasonably well in the aftermarket. It is the last of the modular series with the old design. The price is high but if you can get it for 190 euro I think it should be a safe bet,aftermarket it should be able to hit 300 in 1st year I think.

Taj mahal also has a big discount now but that one seems to early to retire,maybe demand is lacking in general for sets like that.

Pmh

brianoblivion said:

What's the general consensus on whether the Ghostbuster HQ will be retired before the next double points weekend?

This set also has a considerable discount now,which for me is an indication of impending retirement. 6-12 months max. I don't know about the after market,it is a very good set but also expensive for what you get due to the branding.

There will be demand but it will not be as big as the demand for retired modulars,even though it someone fits in with those. I have a hard time seeing this set above 500. Problem with expensive unique sets (sets which don't fit inside a well defined theme) in the aftermarket is that there are many alternatives now that people can also buy,like Hogwarts or other big new sets. This makes paying a premium for a discontinued set a bit less attractive imo.

madforLEGO

pharmjod said:

I personally wouldn't invest in any of the larger sets like modulars. The best returns are on the small to mid sized sets.

Well like anything though you can lose your shirt on smalls. You have to pick the right ones, and also have to expect that doubling your money is not as glamorous as doubling your money on a mod.

As for if sets like GB HQ are going to be retired before the next promo, GB HQ is likely already retired, the question is will they have stock of it before the next promo/double points?

Scatterbug

madforLEGO said:

pharmjod said:

I personally wouldn't invest in any of the larger sets like modulars. The best returns are on the small to mid sized sets.

doubling your money on a mod.

Never going to happen these days.

madforLEGO

Scatterbug said:

madforLEGO said:

pharmjod said:

I personally wouldn't invest in any of the larger sets like modulars. The best returns are on the small to mid sized sets.

doubling your money on a mod.

Never going to happen these days.

On typical small to mid size sets, you probably need to wait for about 2-3 years to double your money, which, even at doubling, is not a lot of money unless you buy a LOT of small to medium size sets (especially if you guess wrong, as only some sets really do well in the aftermarket, especially as LEGO tends to redo many small sets in 1-2 years, re: Star Wars). I think it could be the same as what a mod will do, especially now with the DO and BB retiring 'early' (especially with Brick Bank being really early). I still think that Parisian restaurant could still go fairly quietly as well (with focus being on DO and BB and Parisian restaurant still being the oldest production set).

Now, smaller and midsize sets are easier to stack in case of waiting for a while to see a good return on an item, whereas Mods are not really build for that (those easier now that the box dimensions are a bit smaller length and width wise). But again, guess wrong on smaller sets, and you have, say, 10 of them piled up.. well you are going to go through a lot of hassle to sell them off to make anything.

It really is in the eye of the beholder, and what people mean by smaller to medium size sets.

In any case, I think reselling is a waiting game more now than ever, at least if you want to make a notable profit off of the set. Lets the small fish sell off their stuff for 25-50% profit and dilute the pool of available sets.

pharmjod

25 to 50% profit is way better than what you will do in the stock market on average, so whatever works for you I guess. 

madforLEGO

pharmjod said:

25 to 50% profit is way better than what you will do in the stock market on average, so whatever works for you I guess. 

Agreed somewhat, and not trying to jump on anyone's preference, but ...

1) you are not likely buying 100's of one set as opposed to buying and selling stocks/bonds in a market.(though I'm sure some resellers do in fact do this)

2) It is not like those stocks/bonds/whatever you got on the market are taking up space in your home, being it a closet, garage or storage area.

3) Getting a 'return' on the item, like selling on sites like eBay, bricklink, or Amazon is costly, especially on Amazon.

So to each their own. For the effort one would need to put in (which purchasing for good prices, storing, waiting, listing, paying fees to sell the items (even as small as 3% for Paypal fees), and mailing said items, never mind hoping the item gets to its destination without issue). I would not expect less than a 75-100%+ return on items. 

But again to each their own. If someone wants to spend all that effort to make 10 dollars on a 20 dollar set, for example, I will not begrudge them. However it seems like a LOT of effort for that return, but that is just me I guess.

Diggydoes

Like @madforLEGO wrote,each to their own,i‘ve been monitoring the Lego resell „game“for a few years now,and tried to resell stuff at some point,but right now it looks like a waste of time/space/funds. The market is oversaturated with „AFOL-compatible“sets,which was different couple years ago,i remember when i came out my dark ages like 10years ago,there were only a handful of 1500+ Sets available,so secondary market was interesting to fulfill a AFOLs need ;) even the resell value of Minifigures seem to have changed,for example the Harry Potter Minifigures seem to sell for way below to what they would‘ve sold like 5-10years ago! 
So i guess no bubble bursted (as a few in this thread predicted) but to make money with retired Sets is getting pretty tough :/

milamber

Diggydoes said:

even the resell value of Minifigures seem to have changed,for example the Harry Potter Minifigures seem to sell for way below to what they would‘ve sold like 5-10years ago! 
So i guess no bubble bursted (as a few in this thread predicted) but to make money with retired Sets is getting pretty tough :/

That's interesting. I wasn't back into Lego when the original HP minifigures came out, but remain pleasantly surprised at the re-sell value of the current figures. I don't buy to re-sell, on the whole, but sell the surplus minifigures off from sets I've bought for myself. At the moment selling off the 10 minifigures from #75954 pretty much pays off the purchase price, even after all Ebay/Paypal fees and postage, leaving me everything else for just a few pounds a set.

I can't really understand why people will pay so much for a current production figure (and sell mine for below the average on Ebay as well).

Bumblepants

If y'all aren't grabbing every Tower Bridge you can get your hands on you aren't investing wisely...

pharmjod

My average buy for sets is anywhere from 50-57% off. It's not super hard to get to 75-100% return at that buy in if you are even halfway decent at picking winners. I'm not doing it to get rich though. It gives me some extra money and helps pay for what I keep.

stevemack

As above, buy any set at the right price and it’s really profitable!

lkliment2

While not necessarily retiring soon, I can see #853744 Knightmare pack appreciating handsomely in value

Shib

Given that the value of that is entirely in the Batman figure and the Joker tile, the easy availability of fakes and the fact that the LEGO Movie 2 is about to bring a load of alternative post apocalyptic style batman Minifigures and the current attempt at a DC cinematic universe is not going well, I'd say its not that much of a sure thing. 

kbw

For those that are into the investing game, how closely do you all monitor the market for retiring sets this time of year?  I’ve noticed certain sets get bought up very quickly compared to others. Ferris Wheel has seemingly been really popular. It’s out of stock everywhere compared to some of the other retiring sets. 

pharmjod

Very closely

brianoblivion

The Ferris Wheel is a really unique and awesome set if a somewhat tedious build. If i were a speculator i'd bet that it goes for big bucks in the not too distant future despite the vast number that will soon flood the secondary market. Fairground Mixer goes for a good amount and it's nowhere near as interesting. 

stevemack

How closely do I monitor it.... I probably spend an hour per day on lego related sites/buying or reading at this time of year. 

FollowsClosely

stevemack said:

How closely do I monitor it.... I probably spend an hour per day on lego related sites/buying or reading at this time of year. 

Closely.

rbozarth

brianoblivion said:

The Ferris Wheel is a really unique and awesome set if a somewhat tedious build. If i were a speculator i'd bet that it goes for big bucks in the not too distant future despite the vast number that will soon flood the secondary market. Fairground Mixer goes for a good amount and it's nowhere near as interesting. 

Blasphemy!!! Fairground Mixer is an awesome set.  Best second tier Creator set in the last five years IMO.