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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 5,605
    At one point the original Tumbler set from the first time Lego did Batman was waaay up there. It had the Joker Ice Cream truck with it I think. So many sets have come since including the UCS version it may have tailed off. 
    Onebricktoomany
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,407
    Then you need another split off thread to discuss how to define the best performing sets. If in terms of RRP, some CMFs could well dominate as quite a few make 8-10x RRP but then there is the problem of defining the price of free sets (comic cons, or [email protected] freebies, etc) and rareties such as Mr Gold.
    pharmjodSumoLegoOnebricktoomanyBumblepants
  • OnebricktoomanyOnebricktoomany United StatesMember Posts: 277
    SumoLego said:
    General Discussion of Market Street and its Aftermarket and Afterstreet Performance, and Performance of after Market Street Sets and their Aftermarket Performance on the Street.
    Who's on first?
    SprinkleOtterVorpalRyuBrickByBrickSumoLegogmonkey76davetheoxygenmanBumblepantssid3windr
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,621
    SumoLego said:
    General Discussion of Market Street and its Aftermarket and Afterstreet Performance, and Performance of after Market Street Sets and their Aftermarket Performance on the Street.
    Who's on first?
    Space Skulls
    SprinkleOtterVorpalRyudavetheoxygenmanBumblepantsOnebricktoomany
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,723
    SumoLego said:
    SumoLego said:
    General Discussion of Market Street and its Aftermarket and Afterstreet Performance, and Performance of after Market Street Sets and their Aftermarket Performance on the Street.
    Who's on first?
    Space Skulls
    Better call Star Justice...
    SumoLegodavetheoxygenmanBumblepantsOnebricktoomany
  • Baby_YodaBaby_Yoda The world's backsideMember Posts: 1,138
    ^ Well played.
    SMCsid3windr
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,339
    I'm disappointed...
    SumoLego
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,621
    Pitfall69 said:
    I'm disappointed...
    Yeah, they're not real topics.  But I do admire the url manipulation.  I chuckled.  Kinda like a Kenny Bania joke.

    Roundtine!
    Pitfall69SprinkleOtter
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,339
    ^That's gold Sumo!!! Gold!!!
    SumoLegogmonkey76
  • FireheartFireheart Suffolk, UKMember Posts: 442
    https://apple.news/AsFeuu0hOS3umL5yilJ4ZTw

    Come on, who paid £8k for a MF ??
    SumoLego
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,621
    You clicked on the story.  And it is on the Internet - so it must be true!

    (Or they're confused, and they meant someone paid £800 for one at a retail store.)
  • FireheartFireheart Suffolk, UKMember Posts: 442
    ^ And it’s a story in the UK Sun newspaper, and everything mentioned in the Sun is true! :)
    stluxsid3windrBaby_Yoda
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,407
    An eBay spokesman said the average sale price for the Ultimate Collector's Millennium Falcon is only £101 but that figure will include second-hand and damaged sets.

    And just the rigging, or dish, etc.


    If some paid £8K they are stupid. It is regularly listed BNIB for under £3.5K.
    SprinkleOtter
  • PapaBearPapaBear East CoastMember Posts: 395
    Fireheart said:
    https://apple.news/AsFeuu0hOS3umL5yilJ4ZTw

    Come on, who paid £8k for a MF ??
    Ugghh, this is exactly why I can't stand anything "the news" anymore.  If a rich person frugally spends an insane amount of money on a toy why should I care.
    Baby_Yodabgl_84
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 5,605
    RIP this thread. Modular discontinuations being discussed everywhere else. Goodbye old friend.
    stluxbandit778FollowsCloselysid3windrSumoLegoBaby_Yoda
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,621
    Modular discontinuation is a different topic than how sets perform after retirement.  I get the sense there are fewer of those monitoring the after-market vis-a-vis newly retired sets.
    SprinkleOttermadforLEGO
  • SeanTheCollectorSeanTheCollector BirminghamMember Posts: 730
    What about #41626 Groot & Rocket which appears to be Sold Out in LEGO shop online! Retired BrickHeadz sets could turn out to be a good investment. I would guess they could fetch 200-300% of RRP for the more interesting ones within the first year of retirement. I'm not a reseller but I do sometimes sell some sets to stop me from buying more in a given theme! My plan was to buy 2 of each until this year when 43 sets where released! However, I definitely plan to buy at least one of each and don't imagine selling them would be diffcult in the future.
    SumoLegopharmjodFizyx
  • Switchfoot55Switchfoot55 The Northwest, USAMember Posts: 1,396
    There may be some credibility to that, depending on the set. The Lloyd BH (maybe?) was OOS for awhile, believed to be discontinued, and prices were around $30-$40 back in April and May. A confirmed retired set along the lines of Groot and Rocket, could increase nicely. 
    SumoLegowardmFizyx
  • mh3490mh3490 NW Indiana Member Posts: 314
    Rocket looks absolutely terrifying tho
  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 759
    I feel like Mickey and Minnie will do very well in the aftermarket.  The designers did a great job making both as brickheads.  Also, I mean, it's Mickey and Minnie....they just have the massive appeal to the  general public.
    BrickByBrickSumoLegoOnebricktoomany
  • BrickByBrickBrickByBrick Massachusetts, USAMember Posts: 587
    ^ unless they sell so well that Lego doesn't stop making them. I could see yhen selling at the Disney lego store for an unusually long time
    SumoLegoSwitchfoot55OnebricktoomanyReesesPieces
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,621
    (First reference to Zombie Mickey and Minnie Brickheadz.)
    OnebricktoomanyBrickByBrick
  • talorientalorien Member Posts: 8
    Do people think Ferris Wheel is going EOL? It seems to be out of stock in the US at shop.lego.com.
    SumoLegomadforLEGO
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,621
    The Mixer seems to be holding its value.  Although, I would be concerned with a Ferris Wheel re-release if this one actually retires.
    madforLEGO
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,215
    Ok, so if the Detective Office is going to be 20% where available from LEGO stores from Nov23-26th , then I guess it may be on the outs (as that is typically the only time a Mod gets discounted from LEGO), but really strange IMO as I do not see the Parisian Restaurant selling better than it, or is LEGO getting rid of two mods?
    tamamahmBaby_Yoda
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,621
    Did the Pet Shop and Palace Cinema retire in the same year?
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 880
    Nope, consecutive years.

    Don't forget town hall retired out of sync and caught a lot of people by surprise...
    Baby_Yodagmonkey76
  • Baby_YodaBaby_Yoda The world's backsideMember Posts: 1,138
    You'd think that #10246 wouldn't be so unpopular to warrant an early retirement, but Lego know what they're talking about, I guess. Looks like Detective's Office is about to pull a sneaky one on ya...
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 5,605
    I really like both modulars but PR is what made me finally start buying the theme. Luckily I decided to grab the Fire Brigade first though (Thanks this thread ~500 pages back!)
    Baby_Yodasid3windrgmonkey76Fizyx
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 5,605
    If the Ferris Wheel retires I think that will be the more interesting to watch post retirement. A lot of people lured in by the Coaster will be wanting that one to go beside it. Even more so than the Carousel as the vertical on the FW is most impressive. I've been out of the reselling game for several years but that is where I would place my bets if I was still placing them. 
    sid3windr
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,029
    ^agreed. The FW is pretty unique. You could say that about a lot of sets but the FW stands out in its structure and PF capability. That one I could see doing alright!
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,868
    I'm not playing any bets on large sets. More money to be made easier with smaller sets.
    Bumblepantsgmonkey76Oubird
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,029
    Yeah I’ve quickly found out myself the money is in small sets not the large ones. They take too much space and cost too much to ship. Plus these days you are waiting for something to retire before turning a profit.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 880
    Unless you've got lots of big sets at smaller sets prices :P
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,868
    stevemack said:
    Unless you've got lots of big sets at smaller sets prices :P

    Which short of having inside access that's nearly impossible for most people and not really a viable strategy.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,215
    If the following all retire this year:
    Tower Bridge
    Brick bank
    Detective Office
    Ferris Wheel
    Ghostbusters HQ
    Then this may become known as 'the great retiring'. That is a lot of big Exclusives to retire at once, and two of them mods.
    Imagine in the Parisian restaurant also goes....

    BumblepantsBaby_Yoda
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 5,605
    That giant Minecraft mountain set is a likely candidate to go soon too. At least if the lifespan of The Village is anything to go by. The Mountain seems like a much better set though so it might stick around longer if it is selling well.
    Baby_Yoda
  • Baby_YodaBaby_Yoda The world's backsideMember Posts: 1,138
    ^ I don't think the Mountain Cave is selling very well at all, but I'd give it another six months considering its scale.
    ^^ The Detective's Office going after three years is one thing, but the Brick Bank after just two when the standard is four? That move would permanently decrease the number of currently available modulars, unless they decided to wait until frickin' 2020 to retire Parisian Restaurant, a 2014 set! It'll become the new Tower Bridge!
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 5,605
    The WV Train probably outsells the station by a good amount so that isn't too surprising. I'm so excited for the Tower Bridge to finally go away. Great set but get outta here already.
    gmonkey76Pitfall69
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,621
    edited November 2018
    Bumblepants said:
    I'm so excited for the Tower Bridge to finally go away.
    I'll believe it when I see it.  And when a reissue shows up six months later...

    And as an aside, the WV Station must have been a total sales flop.
    Pitfall69Fizyx
  • MrJacksonMrJackson Member Posts: 313

    And as an aside, the WV Station must have been a total sales flop.
    .....I mean, it's kind of one of those things that only its mother could love.  As a train station it's lame, as a WV set there's no need to get it unless you have the train, as a complimentary model it doesn't even complement the train (which itself works fine as a standalone model or around the tree), as a build it's fairly boring, with the most exciting aspect being setting the door at a 45* angle (woo!), as a toy it doesn't have the same appeal to kids that Santa's Workshop or some of the others did, and as a display piece it's not nearly as charming as the Post Office or any of the other sets for that matter.  Problem is, making a train a couple years ago basically locked them into making a station for the train. 

    And at this point Lego has probably made enough Tower Bridges to use the pieces to make an actual 1:1 scale replica. 
    560HeliportLegoPegasister2015gmonkey76
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 2,236
    MrJackson said:

    And as an aside, the WV Station must have been a total sales flop.
    .....I mean, it's kind of one of those things that only its mother could love.  As a train station it's lame, as a WV set there's no need to get it unless you have the train, as a complimentary model it doesn't even complement the train (which itself works fine as a standalone model or around the tree), as a build it's fairly boring, with the most exciting aspect being setting the door at a 45* angle (woo!), as a toy it doesn't have the same appeal to kids that Santa's Workshop or some of the others did, and as a display piece it's not nearly as charming as the Post Office or any of the other sets for that matter.  Problem is, making a train a couple years ago basically locked them into making a station for the train. 

    And at this point Lego has probably made enough Tower Bridges to use the pieces to make an actual 1:1 scale replica. 
    Then they could drive the Bugatti over it!
    shikadi560HeliportBaby_Yodasid3windrFizyx
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 880
    pharmjod said:
    stevemack said:
    Unless you've got lots of big sets at smaller sets prices :P

    Which short of having inside access that's nearly impossible for most people and not really a viable strategy.

    True not viable at all for most, I’m one of the fortunate few I guess
  • LegoPegasister2015LegoPegasister2015 Westchester, NYMember Posts: 132
    Baby_Yoda said:
    ^^ The Detective's Office going after three years is one thing, but the Brick Bank after just two when the standard is four? That move would permanently decrease the number of currently available modulars, unless they decided to wait until frickin' 2020 to retire Parisian Restaurant, a 2014 set! It'll become the new Tower Bridge!
    I suppose in the chance that two modulars retired in one year, there's only two likely outcomes.

    1) They're planning to re-release an old modular on Black Friday, 2019 (Guessing Green Grocer) and need to make room for it alongside the four others.
    2) Assembly Square was so popular that they decided to make another behemoth of a set for the new release. Perhaps that Hotel Mike Psiaki implied?

  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 948
    "only a Sith deals in absolutes"
    SumoLegoBaby_YodaLEGOFan2
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,621
    "only a Sith deals in absolutes"
    Unless it is more than 55% off - then anyone'll buy it.
    SprinkleOtter
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