Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

SumoLego

General Discussion of Market Street and its Aftermarket and Afterstreet Performance, and Performance of after Market Street Sets and their Aftermarket Performance on the Street.

Onebricktoomany

SumoLego said:

General Discussion of Market Street and its Aftermarket and Afterstreet Performance, and Performance of after Market Street Sets and their Aftermarket Performance on the Street.

Who's on first?

SumoLego

Onebricktoomany said:

SumoLego said:

General Discussion of Market Street and its Aftermarket and Afterstreet Performance, and Performance of after Market Street Sets and their Aftermarket Performance on the Street.

Who's on first?

Space Skulls

SprinkleOtter

SumoLego said:

Onebricktoomany said:

SumoLego said:

General Discussion of Market Street and its Aftermarket and Afterstreet Performance, and Performance of after Market Street Sets and their Aftermarket Performance on the Street.

Who's on first?

Space Skulls

Better call Star Justice...

playwell

Pitfall69 said:

^Maybe we can get SMC to set all the threads up ;)

General Discussion of CMF performance in the Aftermarket
General Discussion of Current Lego sets and their performance in the Aftermarket 
General Discussion of past Lego sets and their performance in the Aftermarket 
General Discussion of Sausages and Helicopters and their performance in the Aftermarket

Done:

https://forum.brickset.com/discussion/26164/general-discussion-on-same-old-jokes-not-being-funny

https://forum.brickset.com/discussion/28977/general-discussion-on-the-way-we-treat-new-members

https://forum.brickset.com/discussion/1958/general-discussion-on-ouroboros

Baby_Yoda

^ Well played.

Pitfall69

I'm disappointed...

SumoLego

Pitfall69 said:

I'm disappointed...

Yeah, they're not real topics.  But I do admire the url manipulation.  I chuckled.  Kinda like a Kenny Bania joke.

Roundtine!

Pitfall69

^That's gold Sumo!!! Gold!!!

Fireheart

https://apple.news/AsFeuu0hOS3umL5yilJ4ZTw

Come on, who paid £8k for a MF ??

SumoLego

You clicked on the story.  And it is on the Internet - so it must be true!

(Or they're confused, and they meant someone paid £800 for one at a retail store.)

Fireheart

^ And it’s a story in the UK Sun newspaper, and everything mentioned in the Sun is true! :)

CCC

An eBay spokesman said the average sale price for the Ultimate Collector's Millennium Falcon is only £101 but that figure will include second-hand and damaged sets.

And just the rigging, or dish, etc.

If some paid £8K they are stupid. It is regularly listed BNIB for under £3.5K.

PapaBear

Fireheart said:

https://apple.news/AsFeuu0hOS3umL5yilJ4ZTw

Come on, who paid £8k for a MF ??

Ugghh, this is exactly why I can't stand anything "the news" anymore.  If a rich person frugally spends an insane amount of money on a toy why should I care.

Bumblepants

RIP this thread. Modular discontinuations being discussed everywhere else. Goodbye old friend.

SumoLego

Modular discontinuation is a different topic than how sets perform after retirement.  I get the sense there are fewer of those monitoring the after-market vis-a-vis newly retired sets.

SeanTheCollector

What about #41626 Groot & Rocket which appears to be Sold Out in LEGO shop online! Retired BrickHeadz sets could turn out to be a good investment. I would guess they could fetch 200-300% of RRP for the more interesting ones within the first year of retirement. I'm not a reseller but I do sometimes sell some sets to stop me from buying more in a given theme! My plan was to buy 2 of each until this year when 43 sets where released! However, I definitely plan to buy at least one of each and don't imagine selling them would be diffcult in the future.

Switchfoot55

There may be some credibility to that, depending on the set. The Lloyd BH (maybe?) was OOS for awhile, believed to be discontinued, and prices were around $30-$40 back in April and May. A confirmed retired set along the lines of Groot and Rocket, could increase nicely. 

mh3490

Rocket looks absolutely terrifying tho

ReesesPieces

I feel like Mickey and Minnie will do very well in the aftermarket.  The designers did a great job making both as brickheads.  Also, I mean, it's Mickey and Minnie....they just have the massive appeal to the  general public.

BrickByBrick

^ unless they sell so well that Lego doesn't stop making them. I could see yhen selling at the Disney lego store for an unusually long time

SumoLego

(First reference to Zombie Mickey and Minnie Brickheadz.)

talorien

Do people think Ferris Wheel is going EOL? It seems to be out of stock in the US at shop.lego.com.

SumoLego

The Mixer seems to be holding its value.  Although, I would be concerned with a Ferris Wheel re-release if this one actually retires.

madforLEGO

Ok, so if the Detective Office is going to be 20% where available from LEGO stores from Nov23-26th , then I guess it may be on the outs (as that is typically the only time a Mod gets discounted from LEGO), but really strange IMO as I do not see the Parisian Restaurant selling better than it, or is LEGO getting rid of two mods?

SumoLego

Did the Pet Shop and Palace Cinema retire in the same year?

stevemack

Nope, consecutive years.

Don't forget town hall retired out of sync and caught a lot of people by surprise...

Baby_Yoda

You'd think that #10246 wouldn't be so unpopular to warrant an early retirement, but Lego know what they're talking about, I guess. Looks like Detective's Office is about to pull a sneaky one on ya...

Bumblepants

I really like both modulars but PR is what made me finally start buying the theme. Luckily I decided to grab the Fire Brigade first though (Thanks this thread ~500 pages back!)

Bumblepants

If the Ferris Wheel retires I think that will be the more interesting to watch post retirement. A lot of people lured in by the Coaster will be wanting that one to go beside it. Even more so than the Carousel as the vertical on the FW is most impressive. I've been out of the reselling game for several years but that is where I would place my bets if I was still placing them. 

piratemania7

^agreed. The FW is pretty unique. You could say that about a lot of sets but the FW stands out in its structure and PF capability. That one I could see doing alright!

pharmjod

I'm not playing any bets on large sets. More money to be made easier with smaller sets.

piratemania7

Yeah I’ve quickly found out myself the money is in small sets not the large ones. They take too much space and cost too much to ship. Plus these days you are waiting for something to retire before turning a profit.

stevemack

Unless you've got lots of big sets at smaller sets prices :P

pharmjod

stevemack said:

Unless you've got lots of big sets at smaller sets prices :P

Which short of having inside access that's nearly impossible for most people and not really a viable strategy.

madforLEGO

If the following all retire this year:

Tower Bridge

Brick bank

Detective Office

Ferris Wheel

Ghostbusters HQ

Then this may become known as 'the great retiring'. That is a lot of big Exclusives to retire at once, and two of them mods.

Imagine in the Parisian restaurant also goes....

Bumblepants

That giant Minecraft mountain set is a likely candidate to go soon too. At least if the lifespan of The Village is anything to go by. The Mountain seems like a much better set though so it might stick around longer if it is selling well.

Baby_Yoda

^ I don't think the Mountain Cave is selling very well at all, but I'd give it another six months considering its scale.
^^ The Detective's Office going after three years is one thing, but the Brick Bank after just two when the standard is four? That move would permanently decrease the number of currently available modulars, unless they decided to wait until frickin' 2020 to retire Parisian Restaurant, a 2014 set! It'll become the new Tower Bridge!

amok

I live in Turkey and as some of you might know, Turkish currency has lost a great deal of value against foreign currencies. As a result, LEGO products saw a significant price increase on the 1st of November. However, the MSRP of some sets remained unchanged. Upon asking LEGO Store employees and further investigating the products that didn't increase in price, I am pretty confident that they are the products that are at the end of their production lives. Here are the sets that didn't increase in price and some that did, so that we can compare, prices are in Turkish Liras (TRY):

Set - Old Price - New Price
Brick Bank - 750 TRY - 750 TRY
Detective's Office - 750 TRY - 750 TRY
Parisian Restaurant - 750 TRY - 1000 TRY
Downtown Diner - 750 TRY - 1000 TRY
Assembly Square - 1300 TRY - 1600 TRY

MINI Cooper - 450 TRY - 450 TRY
VW Beetle - 450 TRY - 600 TRY
VW Camper Van - 470 TRY - 650 TRY
London Bus - 550 TRY - 800 TRY
Aston Martin DB5 - 750 TRY - 1000 TRY

Ferris Wheel - 900 TRY - 900 TRY
Carousel - 900 TRY - 1200 TRY
Roller Coaster - 1700 TRY - 2200 TRY

Old Fishing Store - 850 TRY - 850 TRY
Saturn V - 650 TRY - 800 TRY

UCS Snowspeeder - 1000 TRY - 1000 TRY
UCS Slave I - 1000 TRY - 1000 TRY
UCS Y-Wing - 1000 TRY - 1300 TRY
UCS Death Star - 2500 TRY - 3400 TRY
UCS Millennium Falcon - 3800 TRY - 5400 TRY

Winter Village Station - 330 TRY - 330 TRY
Winter Holiday Train - 450 TRY - 600 TRY
Winter Village Fire Station - 450 TRY - 600 TRY

Tower Bridge - 1100 TRY - 1100 TRY
Big Ben - 1100 TRY - 1100 TRY
Taj Mahal - 1700 TRY - 2200 TRY

GB Firehouse Headquarters - 1800 TRY - 1800 TRY
Silent Mary - 1000 TRY - 1000 TRY
Disney Castle - 1800 TRY - 2400 TRY
Hogwarts Castle - 2200 TRY - 2600 TRY

So, my guess is that Detective's Office, Brick Bank, MINI Cooper, Ferris Wheel, Old Fishing Store, UCS Snowspeeder, UCS Slave I, Winter Village Station, Tower Bridge, Big Ben, GB Firehouse Headquarters and Silent Mary are retiring pretty soon, perhaps at the end of 2018.

What is interesting is that Parisian Restaurant, VW Camper Van, Saturn V and Winter Holiday Train aren't retiring while newer sets in their line seem to be retiring.

Bumblepants

The WV Train probably outsells the station by a good amount so that isn't too surprising. I'm so excited for the Tower Bridge to finally go away. Great set but get outta here already.

SumoLego

Bumblepants said:
I'm so excited for the Tower Bridge to finally go away.

I'll believe it when I see it.  And when a reissue shows up six months later...

And as an aside, the WV Station must have been a total sales flop.

MrJackson

And as an aside, the WV Station must have been a total sales flop.

.....I mean, it's kind of one of those things that only its mother could love.  As a train station it's lame, as a WV set there's no need to get it unless you have the train, as a complimentary model it doesn't even complement the train (which itself works fine as a standalone model or around the tree), as a build it's fairly boring, with the most exciting aspect being setting the door at a 45* angle (woo!), as a toy it doesn't have the same appeal to kids that Santa's Workshop or some of the others did, and as a display piece it's not nearly as charming as the Post Office or any of the other sets for that matter.  Problem is, making a train a couple years ago basically locked them into making a station for the train. 

And at this point Lego has probably made enough Tower Bridges to use the pieces to make an actual 1:1 scale replica. 

Astrobricks

MrJackson said:

And as an aside, the WV Station must have been a total sales flop.

.....I mean, it's kind of one of those things that only its mother could love.  As a train station it's lame, as a WV set there's no need to get it unless you have the train, as a complimentary model it doesn't even complement the train (which itself works fine as a standalone model or around the tree), as a build it's fairly boring, with the most exciting aspect being setting the door at a 45* angle (woo!), as a toy it doesn't have the same appeal to kids that Santa's Workshop or some of the others did, and as a display piece it's not nearly as charming as the Post Office or any of the other sets for that matter.  Problem is, making a train a couple years ago basically locked them into making a station for the train. 

And at this point Lego has probably made enough Tower Bridges to use the pieces to make an actual 1:1 scale replica. 

Then they could drive the Bugatti over it!

stevemack

pharmjod said:

stevemack said:

Unless you've got lots of big sets at smaller sets prices :P

Which short of having inside access that's nearly impossible for most people and not really a viable strategy.

True not viable at all for most, I’m one of the fortunate few I guess

LegoPegasister2015

Baby_Yoda said:

^^ The Detective's Office going after three years is one thing, but the Brick Bank after just two when the standard is four? That move would permanently decrease the number of currently available modulars, unless they decided to wait until frickin' 2020 to retire Parisian Restaurant, a 2014 set! It'll become the new Tower Bridge!

I suppose in the chance that two modulars retired in one year, there's only two likely outcomes.

1) They're planning to re-release an old modular on Black Friday, 2019 (Guessing Green Grocer) and need to make room for it alongside the four others.

2) Assembly Square was so popular that they decided to make another behemoth of a set for the new release. Perhaps that Hotel Mike Psiaki implied?

FollowsClosely

"only a Sith deals in absolutes"

SumoLego

FollowsClosely said:

"only a Sith deals in absolutes"

Unless it is more than 55% off - then anyone'll buy it.

Pitfall69

Bumblepants said:

The WV Train probably outsells the station by a good amount so that isn't too surprising. I'm so excited for the Tower Bridge to finally go away. Great set but get outta here already.

SumoLego said:

Bumblepants said:
I'm so excited for the Tower Bridge to finally go away.

I'll believe it when I see it.  And when a reissue shows up six months later...

And as an aside, the WV Station must have been a total sales flop.

You can't have a station without a train, but you can have a train without a station. I built the train and the station and even though the train seems small, I still like it better than the station. 

I used to love the old #4554 Train Station and it's red counterpart #2150. I wish Lego would go back to making larger Train Stations; at least maybe a Creator Modular Train Station to go with the rest of the Modulars.

madforLEGO

LegoPegasister2015 said:

Baby_Yoda said:

^^ The Detective's Office going after three years is one thing, but the Brick Bank after just two when the standard is four? That move would permanently decrease the number of currently available modulars, unless they decided to wait until frickin' 2020 to retire Parisian Restaurant, a 2014 set! It'll become the new Tower Bridge!

I suppose in the chance that two modulars retired in one year, there's only two likely outcomes.

1) They're planning to re-release an old modular on Black Friday, 2019 (Guessing Green Grocer) and need to make room for it alongside the four others.

2) Assembly Square was so popular that they decided to make another behemoth of a set for the new release. Perhaps that Hotel Mike Psiaki implied?

3) LEGO just realized that having 5 mods available at one time is actually hurting sales of their other sets and modulars.

Considering that LEGO has said that modulars would not be re-released I would be genuinely surprised if a, and what many would also consider 'out of date', modular like Green Grocer would be re-released.

pharmjod

Nothing is off the table with the recent rereleases. Even modulars. I don't recall any official statement from LEGO regarding the modulars and no rereleases.