Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Pitfall69

SumoLego said:

Diggydoes said:

CCC said:

It would be like selling GBHQ without Ecto-1 ...

Or Assault on Hoth without a AT-AT...

The AT-AT has too many minifigures.  A proper 'assault' can only have two assaulters.

"Stormtroopers have entered the base. Stormtroopers have entered...*static* "

FollowsClosely

The train will follow the same lefispan as the past 5 seasonal sets. 2 years.

Farmer_John

Diggydoes said:

CCC said:

It would be like selling GBHQ without Ecto-1 ...

Or Assault on Hoth without a AT-AT...

^ and ^^ I can tell you I haven't purchased one of those without the other. Well to be honest, I haven't purchased either of those with the other either. In fact, I don't have the other either. (Starting to sound like a limerick)

SumoLego

Farmer_John said:
(Starting to sound like a limerick) 

There once was a man from Nantucket

Who kept all his cash in a bucket.

But his daughter, named Nan,

Ran away with a man,

And as for the bucket, Nantucket.”

Astrobricks

Don’t make the admins create a limerick thread from this. (Or do. Whatevs)

CCC

On Brickset, such things should be banned,

That's right, they should be totally canned,

As for memes, they are fine,

Although the mods, they will whine,

And give you a strong reprimand.

Switchfoot55

I once bought a set that was old
And was promised great riches and gold.
But, still the set sits
And time still on ticks. 
The promise not as it foretold. 

...just to keep this thread on point

SumoLego

Ugh.  I finally ruined this thread.  Took a lot of persistence.  I wouldn't have put my money on limericks.  I would have figured some cacophony of lighthouses, X-Wings and Fire Stations would have caused a Brakalatabaasata of mammoth proportions and destroyed the thread.

Quick question - did anyone invest in Sydney Opera Houses?  I'm curious if those are doing well on the aftermarket after eBay and shipping fees.

Pitfall69

^I dunno, but I got mine with for a song 

Farmer_John

SOH is one of the few large sets I never got around to getting. Probably because it's one of the few sets I actually asked my wife if I could get and she emphatically said "no." Haven't had that issue anymore since I quit asking her for permission. The tricky part now is trying to sneak the sets into the house without getting caught.

Wow, my comments are really starting to get away from me...I'm starting to show my age. What were we talking about again?

CCC

Pitfall69 said:

^I dunno, but I got mine with for a song 

Which song was it? This one?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrg1UAixGaM

stlux

stlux said:

Just for fun I from time to time check the seal codes on Tower Bridge boxes when visiting a Lego Store. Seems to be selling quite well, as it is still getting regular production runs. Late last year I saw a 42S7 seal code (week 42 in 2017 production), and earlier this year a 16S8 one.

Disclaimer: My recollection of those codes might be off by a few weeks, but should still give a rough idea that there's still ongoing production runs to replenish store shelves instead of leftover stock they are unable to shift.

Update from visiting a Lego Store this weekend: they had TB's on the shelf with seal code 24S8. (i.e. produced mid-June)

So not only do they definitely not have an issue with old stock lingering on the shelf, they still sell so many Tower Bridges they need to produce new ones every couple of weeks/months.

SumoLego

This is some sort of Tower Bridge conspiracy!

Gibbo1959

^ Well we know that Americans haven't always made the best decisions when buying London bridges!! :)

SumoLego

Heard a rumour that London Bridge is falling down.  Falling down...

Pitfall69

^Insert "Army of Darkness" meme.

"My fair lady!!!"

Baby_Yoda

...Another happy landing!

SeanTheCollector

Just spotted that #75144 Snowspeeder is listed as retiring soon on UK shop@home! That's a short lifespan for a Star Wars UCS set. Even though it's a copy of an earlier set, I would guess that it would increase in value after it's gone. So probably worth looking for the best deal you can now if you want the set.

Lobot

@SeanTheCollector - Thanks, that's interesting.

I'd expected that #75060 Slave 1 would be next as it's been available for almost four years, but it must be selling well!  As #75144 is available in Smyths it could be around for a while, and destined to follow the aftermarket performance of #76052!

That said, I couldn't resist buying a second one at 20% off during the May 4th promo.  Combined with the BB-8 polybag and VIP points it's a very low risk investment as far as I'm concerned.  Personally I think it's a great set, and well worth the RRP.

SumoLego

I suppose the retirement of the UCS Snowspeeder (Redux) would be comparable to UCS X-Wing (Red Five)?

I can't say I've been paying attention to the eBay and Bricklink sales figures.  Anybody making crazy profits on UCS X-Wings?

Lobot

@SumoLego - I get the feeling that the X-Wing was widely hoarded in the belief that it was the next 'dead cert' so I don't think they're directly comparable.  Part of the problem for it, in the UK at least, was that it was readily available during several 3 for 2 deals, resulting in a surplus in the market, and supressed prices.

I've found that Brickpicker can be a useful barometer (and actually give an idea of which sets to avoid!).  For example:

#10240 - 102 pages of comments

#75144 - 21 pages of comments

Switchfoot55

Hmm...with it retiring soon, I may need to finally pull the trigger and snag my first UCS set. 

If others were given the choice between the UCS Y-Wing or Snowspeeder (new versions), which would you pick? Resell is slightly part of the equation, but mainly on build and display quality. 

SumoLego

The Snowspeeder is a hands-down better choice for me.  Not to crap on the Y-Wing, but it's arguably the 5th most interesting starfighter.

(We'd all take a MF, Slave 1, X-Wing and a Tie Advanced before a Y-Wing.  And then it's a toss up with TIE Fighter, B-Wing, and basically everything not a Naboo Starfighter.)

Baby_Yoda

I'd put it at 6th. TIE Interceptor gets 5th for me.

MrJackson

I would like an A-wing. Though I personally think an ARC-170 would be awesome. 

Switchfoot55

Can anyone confirm if the major assembled pieces in this photo are Red Five?

Baby_Yoda

The general shapes of the subassemblies and their colour scheme seems to match, but I'd need another image or two, if possible, as I don't own that set myself. Until then, the answer to the question of whether or not it's Red Five is standing by.

Lobot

@Switchfoot - Mine's still in it's sealed box, but it looks very promising.  Take a look at this review from Eurobricks; there's a couple of photos under 'Bag 4' which look identical:

https://www.eurobricks.com/forum/index.php?/forums/topic/82056-review-10240-red-five-x-wing-starfighter/

SumoLego

Could be the original UCS X-Wing, as well.  But that's sheer speculation as I can immediately check.  And I haven't built the newer version.

Where's the canopy?

datsunrobbie

My bet would be on #10240, based on the tan 1x6 bricks on two nose assemblies and the big inverted section on the right, which looks like page 7 of book 2 of the assembly instructions. Nice find!

Switchfoot55

Sorry to have hijacked the thread for some part identification. It was just relevant to what we were talking about. 

I'll have the bin in my hands in 2 hours. For the price, even if it's incomplete, it'll be well worth it. 

That 8x6 triangular piece is from an Exploriens set, so I'm wondering if the contents are a bit older, which may support the earlier X-Wing?

Astrobricks

Switchfoot55 said:

Sorry to have hijacked the thread for some part identification. It was just relevant to what we were talking about. 

I'll have the bin in my hands in 2 hours. For the price, even if it's incomplete, it'll be well worth it. 

That 8x6 triangular piece is from an Exploriens set, so I'm wondering if the contents are a bit older, which may support the earlier X-Wing?

I was wondering about that Exploriens piece. I found it in the picture for #6856, but AAAARRRGH, it’s not in the BS part inventory. Found it on BL, https://www.bricklink.com/v2/catalog/catalogitem.page?P=30036&idColor=1#T=C&C=1 
Turns out it's still in use today (in different colors).

Switchfoot55

Well, the great news is it is indeed Red Five! The bad news is no plaque in the bin. Figures. 

No plaque, no UCS...

It is in a lot of pieces, but the build seems to be 100% there (minus the tile for the plaque obviously!). Still really excited about having a legit UCS set. 

Lots of extra goodies in the bin too that will need sorted through. 

Patrik78

Anyone else having some pretty expensive sets in their collection without the intention to invest just because of no building time? :( Checked Rebrickable few days ago and got quite shocked…

Open or not to open...

sklamb

^ Yes. Lots of them. Not only is one whole room pretty well full of unopened boxes, but a large number of other sets are climbing the back stairs....

It's possible, but very unlikely, that I might sell a few of the older unopened ones in order to shorten the "unbuilt" list and free up a bit of storage space. Unfortunately they mostly still appeal to me as much as ever, and TLG keeps on making more that I really, really want to own.

But at least I can reassure myself that the unopened boxes are growing in value!

Baby_Yoda

Wish I had too much Lego to build...

madforLEGO

Baby_Yoda said:

Wish I had too much Lego to build...

Normally, one would think this, but it really is not as glamorous as it appears.

I have stacked boxes around my apt, and now it is getting ridiculous, so much so that I will be selling a bunch off just to free up space to store.. more LEGO that I have gotten in the past year.

Heck I have bunches of sets I unboxed, and are just sitting in their part bags from the box, as I have to come up with a storage method for all of these brand new parts (vs the older parts I accrued from years of buying from BL and eBay LEGO lots).

So yeah, while it sounds great, it really isn't. even if I get a house Im guessing I may have to get a storage area.

1st world problems I know, but still.

MrJackson

Ive knocked off most of my list. Boxes really do take up a lot of space. Fortunately all that are left in my queue are the Diner, Super Star Destroyer, and UCS Falcon. 

jhuntin1

I'm going to need a storage locker soon for all the boxed sets I have. I keep thinking we'll be able to move into a bigger house with a basement so my city will come to life, but it's not in the cards for a while and my den has filled up with boxes of sets I want to build but that take less room in the box. I looked through some of the sets I'm still holding onto and it is getting tempting to maybe sell my NISB Emerald Night and a few others.

PeteM

I’ve got a load of the larger Creator Expert sets unbuilt due to various pressures of life (young children, limited space, full time job etc) and after Christmas I calculated how many months of mortgage could be covered by selling them on which turned out to be more than I thought and quite tempting... However, I bought them as single sets to build (rather than multiples to resell) so still live in hope that I’ll have the time and space to do so one day soon!

hoyatables

I’m also at that saturation point. I keep looking at the larger sets and thinking the same thing - should I just sell?  Will I ever really build Tower Bridge?  Or the Eiffel Tower (that one is used).  Or Orthanc?  

Same is true for smaller collections. Why did I buy all those Lone Ranger sets?  And what about the Hobbit sets?

Bumblepants

@hoyatables if you are considering selling the Eiffel Tower do it sooner rather than later. If anything is likely to be remade that is it and the value will plummet.

SumoLego

Bumblepants said:

@hoyatables if you are considering selling the Eiffel Tower do it sooner rather than later. If anything is likely to be remade that is it and the value will plummet.

I agree.  You should trade it to a guy in New York for a newer and less-likely-to-be-reissued set.

hoyatables

^ I'm all ears.

Switchfoot55

Wait a second...

Pitfall69

hoyatables said:

^ I'm all ears.

Switchfoot55 said:

Wait a second...

You need to be more eyes and less ears ;)

Pitfall69

I have an interesting topic that can either be shared here or split into it's own thread. What sets are the best performing sets of All-Time? This topic was discussed before in the past, but it has been a few years since this was discussed. At one point the original UCS MF was considered The Holy Grail, but not so much anymore.

Bumblepants

At one point the original Tumbler set from the first time Lego did Batman was waaay up there. It had the Joker Ice Cream truck with it I think. So many sets have come since including the UCS version it may have tailed off. 

CCC

Then you need another split off thread to discuss how to define the best performing sets. If in terms of RRP, some CMFs could well dominate as quite a few make 8-10x RRP but then there is the problem of defining the price of free sets (comic cons, or S@H freebies, etc) and rareties such as Mr Gold.

Pitfall69

^Maybe we can get SMC to set all the threads up ;)

General Discussion of CMF performance in the Aftermarket
General Discussion of Current Lego sets and their performance in the Aftermarket 
General Discussion of past Lego sets and their performance in the Aftermarket 
General Discussion of Sausages and Helicopters and their performance in the Aftermarket